<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——供应中断和关税错位定义了今年伦敦金属交易所（LME）基本金属的复杂局面。</p>
<p>需求形势远非乐观，但供应链压力仍然推动 LME 指数（.LMEX），即交易所六种基本金属合约的综合指数，达到了自 2022 年历史高点以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>那一年，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。</p>
<p>今年的动荡来自不同的方向，市场正在应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的波动关税世界。</p>
<p>金融市场已经从四月的 “解放日” 低迷中恢复，但针对美国铝的关税和铜关税的威胁正在导致交易模式的剧烈变化。</p>
<p>关税错位增加了各个金属面临的供应风险的复杂性，并帮助解释了今年表现的巨大差异。</p>
<h3>铜博士的双重性格</h3>
<p>LME 三个月期铜（CMCU3）本月不断创下历史新高，挑战每公吨 12,000 美元的水平。</p>
<p>CME 的美国铜合约（HGc1）交易价格更高，因为它考虑到了对精炼金属进口可能征收的关税。特朗普政府已将决定推迟到明年中，但关税的威胁已证明与现实一样具有破坏性。</p>
<p>全球的铜 surplus 已经向美国聚集，推动 CME 库存达到多年高点，导致其他地区金属短缺。</p>
<p>丰收还是饥荒？铜的情况取决于你身处何地。</p>
<p>CME 与 LME 铜之间的套利今年经历了疯狂的波动，因为关税时有时无，可能又会再次出现。在特朗普做出决定之前，这将继续定义精炼铜的全球流动。</p>
<h3>锡有新的基金朋友</h3>
<p>虽然铜占据了头条，但今年的明星表现来自锡，这个市场面临多重供应威胁。</p>
<p>锡的问题在于，矿山供应过于集中在少数国家，包括刚果民主共和国和缅甸半自治的瓦州等高风险地区。</p>
<p>额外的波动来自于对 LME 核心合约中最小的锡合约的基金参与增加。</p>
<p>锡似乎正在进入投资者的视野，因为世界意识到，在电路板焊料的形式下，这种青铜时代的金属在即将到来的物联网时代有着光明的未来。</p>
<h3>铝 - 注意上限……和差距</h3>
<p>铝是今年 LME 表现第三强的金属，反映出人们越来越意识到，作为全球最大生产国的中国的生产现在正面临政府规定的产能上限。</p>
<p>并非所有人都同意花旗的观点，即铝正在 “无意识地走向 20 年来最大的（供应）赤字”，但市场确实很久没有如此关注中国以外的新冶炼厂项目。</p>
<p>铝的贸易流动，已经因对俄罗斯金属的制裁而错位，因美国进口关税的翻倍而进一步破裂。</p>
<p>美国交付的溢价达到了创纪录的每磅 89 美分（每吨 1,967 美元），这也是超过了隐含的 50% 关税率，表明美国现在正面临金属短缺。</p>
<h3>锌的惊喜</h3>
<p>谈到无意识地走向赤字，LME 锌市场在十月经历了一次剧烈的挤压。</p>
<p>现金溢价超过三个月交付（CMZN0-3）扩展到超过每吨 300 美元的倒挂，创下历史新高，LME 库存降至仅 50,000 吨。</p>
<p>本应是锌过剩的一年，因为一波新的矿山供应涌入供应链。</p>
<p>但过剩的锌最终都集中在中国。</p>
<p>根据国际铅锌研究小组的数据，全球矿山生产同比增长了 6.5%，精炼产量同比增长了 2.9%。</p>
<p>然而，西方的精炼锌生产实际上下降了 2.2%，反映出关闭、暂停和意外冶炼事故的混合影响。</p>
<p>本月 LME 价差结构的崩溃表明，中国的过剩锌正在转移，以满足西方的需求。</p>
<h3>铅过剩</h3>
<p>铅并不短缺。短期内也不太可能出现短缺。</p>
<p>储存铅的利润与在实物市场上销售铅的利润相当，这就是为什么交易者在这一年里相互争夺单位，以从仓储激励中获利。</p>
<p>今年超过一百万吨的铅已在 LME 仓库进出，注册库存仅净增 16,425 吨。</p>
<p>噪音掩盖了来自 LME 注册和场外库存的潜在上升趋势，这些库存从 2023 年初的 21,500 吨上升到超过 440,000 吨。</p>
<h3>印尼繁荣，镍崩溃</h3>
<p>由于印尼持续的生产繁荣，镍库存也激增，导致全球供应增长远远超过需求。</p>
<p>好消息是，如果没有麦格理银行所描述的 “中国大规模未报告的战略性囤积”，交易所的库存将会更高。</p>
<p>坏消息是，LME 刚刚批准了由 PT Eternal Industry 生产的新印尼镍品牌，年产量为 50,000 吨。</p>
<p>镍目前正享受年底的反弹，寄希望于印尼能够在 2026 年遏制其生产增长，这一切都说明了当前镍市场的状况。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省的数据驱动评论。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
<p>2025 年 LME 金属相对表现</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2552" height="1154" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR"/></p>
<p>美国进口关税的威胁颠覆了 CME-LME 铜的套利</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2550" height="1050" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ"/></p>
<p>基金在 LME 锡合约上建立了创纪录的多头头寸</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2548" height="1156" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo"/></p>
<p>美国进口关税分裂了全球铝市场</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2546" height="1154" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx"/></p>
<p>伦敦金属交易所锌的价差在 2025 年爆炸性地达到了历史最高的逆价差水平</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2536" height="1032" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc"/></p>
<p>伦敦金属交易所铅库存达到多年高位</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1350" height="680" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc"/></p>
<p>中国镍正在涌入伦敦金属交易所仓库</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1518" height="712" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>（编辑：Marguerita Choy）</p>
<p>)</p>

ZINC

<p>伦敦金属交易所（LME）金属市场受到供应中断和关税扰动的影响，导致交易模式发生显著变化。由于潜在的美国关税，铜价达到了历史新高，而锡则引起了投资者的关注。铝因中国的产能限制和美国关税面临供应挑战。锌经历了供应紧张，而铅则依然充足。由于印度尼西亚的生产激增，镍的供应大幅增加。这些因素导致今年金属表现出现波动和分化</p>

<p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Supply disruption and tariff dislocation have defined the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——供应中断和关税错位定义了今年伦敦金属交易所（LME）基本金属的复杂局面。</p>
</div><p>The demand picture is far from rosy, but supply-chain stress has still lifted the LME Index (.LMEX) , a basket of the exchange’s six base metals contracts, to its highest level since the all-time peak in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求形势远非乐观，但供应链压力仍然推动 LME 指数（.LMEX），即交易所六种基本金属合约的综合指数，达到了自 2022 年历史高点以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>That was the year Russia invaded Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那一年，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。</p>
</div><p>This year’s turbulence has come from a different direction, as markets navigate U.S. President Donald Trump’s topsy-turvy tariff world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的动荡来自不同的方向，市场正在应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的波动关税世界。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets have recovered from their “Liberation Day” swoon in April, but targeted U.S. aluminium tariffs and the threat of copper tariffs are causing tectonic shifts in trading patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市场已经从四月的 “解放日” 低迷中恢复，但针对美国铝的关税和铜关税的威胁正在导致交易模式的剧烈变化。</p>
</div><p>Tariff dislocation adds complexity to the spectrum of supply risk facing individual metals and helps explain the wide divergence in performance this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税错位增加了各个金属面临的供应风险的复杂性，并帮助解释了今年表现的巨大差异。</p>
</div><h3>DOCTOR COPPER’S SPLIT PERSONALITY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>铜博士的双重性格</h3>
</div><p>LME three-month copper (CMCU3) has been punching out fresh all-time highs this month as it challenges the $12,000 per metric ton level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三个月期铜（CMCU3）本月不断创下历史新高，挑战每公吨 12,000 美元的水平。</p>
</div><p>The CME’s U.S. copper contract (HGc1) is trading higher still because it’s pricing in possible tariffs on imports of refined metal. The Trump administration has deferred a decision until the middle of next year, but the threat of tariffs has proved as disruptive as the reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 的美国铜合约（HGc1）交易价格更高，因为它考虑到了对精炼金属进口可能征收的关税。特朗普政府已将决定推迟到明年中，但关税的威胁已证明与现实一样具有破坏性。</p>
</div><p>The world’s surplus copper has gravitated towards the U.S., lifting CME stocks to multi-year highs and leaving everyone else short of metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球的铜 surplus 已经向美国聚集，推动 CME 库存达到多年高点，导致其他地区金属短缺。</p>
</div><p>Feast or famine? Copper is currently both depending on where you are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>丰收还是饥荒？铜的情况取决于你身处何地。</p>
</div><p>The arbitrage between CME and LME copper has been a wild ride this year as tariffs were on, then off, then on again maybe. Until Trump makes up his mind, it will continue to define global flows of refined copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 与 LME 铜之间的套利今年经历了疯狂的波动，因为关税时有时无，可能又会再次出现。在特朗普做出决定之前，这将继续定义精炼铜的全球流动。</p>
</div><h3>TIN HAS NEW FUND FRIENDS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>锡有新的基金朋友</h3>
</div><p>While copper has grabbed the headlines, this year’s star turn has come from tin, a market grappling with multiple supply threats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然铜占据了头条，但今年的明星表现来自锡，这个市场面临多重供应威胁。</p>
</div><p>Tin’s problem is too much mine supply is concentrated in too few countries, including high-risk jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锡的问题在于，矿山供应过于集中在少数国家，包括刚果民主共和国和缅甸半自治的瓦州等高风险地区。</p>
</div><p>Extra volatility is coming from increased fund participation in the smallest of the LME’s core contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>额外的波动来自于对 LME 核心合约中最小的锡合约的基金参与增加。</p>
</div><p>Tin appears to be moving onto the investment radar as the world wakes up to the fact that, in the form of circuit-board solder, the Bronze Age metal has a bright future in the coming Internet-Of-Things Age.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锡似乎正在进入投资者的视野，因为世界意识到，在电路板焊料的形式下，这种青铜时代的金属在即将到来的物联网时代有着光明的未来。</p>
</div><h3>ALUMINIUM - MIND THE CAP…AND THE GAP</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>铝 - 注意上限……和差距</h3>
</div><p>Aluminium has been the third strongest LME performer this year, reflecting a growing awareness that production in China, the world’s largest producer, is now bumping against the government’s mandated capacity cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝是今年 LME 表现第三强的金属，反映出人们越来越意识到，作为全球最大生产国的中国的生产现在正面临政府规定的产能上限。</p>
</div><p>Not everyone agrees with Citi’s call that aluminium is “sleep-walking into the biggest (supply) deficits in 20 years”, but it’s certainly a long time since the market has paid so much attention to new smelter projects outside of China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并非所有人都同意花旗的观点，即铝正在 “无意识地走向 20 年来最大的（供应）赤字”，但市场确实很久没有如此关注中国以外的新冶炼厂项目。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium trade flows, already dislocated by sanctions on Russian metal, have been further fractured by the doubling of U.S. import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝的贸易流动，已经因对俄罗斯金属的制裁而错位，因美国进口关税的翻倍而进一步破裂。</p>
</div><p>The premium for U.S. delivery stands at a record 89 cents per lb ($1,967 per ton) over the LME price. That’s also a premium over the implied 50% tariff rate, suggesting that the U.S. is now running short of metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国交付的溢价达到了创纪录的每磅 89 美分（每吨 1,967 美元），这也是超过了隐含的 50% 关税率，表明美国现在正面临金属短缺。</p>
</div><h3>ZINC SURPRISE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>锌的惊喜</h3>
</div><p>And talking of sleep-walking into a deficit, the LME zinc market was rocked by a ferocious squeeze in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到无意识地走向赤字，LME 锌市场在十月经历了一次剧烈的挤压。</p>
</div><p>The cash premium over three-month delivery (CMZN0-3) flexed out to over $300 per ton backwardation, a record level, as LME stocks fell to just 50,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现金溢价超过三个月交付（CMZN0-3）扩展到超过每吨 300 美元的倒挂，创下历史新高，LME 库存降至仅 50,000 吨。</p>
</div><p>This was supposed to be a year of zinc surplus as a wave of new mine supply washed through the supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本应是锌过剩的一年，因为一波新的矿山供应涌入供应链。</p>
</div><p>But the surplus has all ended up in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但过剩的锌最终都集中在中国。</p>
</div><p>Global mine production rose by a robust 6.5% year-on-year and refined output by 2.9% year-on-year in January-October, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际铅锌研究小组的数据，全球矿山生产同比增长了 6.5%，精炼产量同比增长了 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>However, Western production of refined zinc actually fell by 2.2%, reflecting a mix of closures, suspensions and unforeseen smelter hits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，西方的精炼锌生产实际上下降了 2.2%，反映出关闭、暂停和意外冶炼事故的混合影响。</p>
</div><p>This month’s implosion of the LME spread structure suggests Chinese surplus is on the move to satiate Western hunger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月 LME 价差结构的崩溃表明，中国的过剩锌正在转移，以满足西方的需求。</p>
</div><h3>TOO MUCH LEAD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>铅过剩</h3>
</div><p>There’s no shortage of lead. Nor is there likely to be one any time soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铅并不短缺。短期内也不太可能出现短缺。</p>
</div><p>Warehousing the stuff is as profitable as trying to sell it in the physical market, which is why traders have spent the year arm-wresting units off each other to profit from warehouse incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>储存铅的利润与在实物市场上销售铅的利润相当，这就是为什么交易者在这一年里相互争夺单位，以从仓储激励中获利。</p>
</div><p>Over a million tons of lead have been delivered in and out of LME warehouses this year for a net rise of just 16,425 tons in registered inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年超过一百万吨的铅已在 LME 仓库进出，注册库存仅净增 16,425 吨。</p>
</div><p>The noise masks the signal coming from the underlying uptrend in combined LME registered and off-market stocks, which have risen from 21,500 tons at the start of 2023 to over 440,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>噪音掩盖了来自 LME 注册和场外库存的潜在上升趋势，这些库存从 2023 年初的 21,500 吨上升到超过 440,000 吨。</p>
</div><h3>INDONESIAN BOOM, NICKEL BUST</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印尼繁荣，镍崩溃</h3>
</div><p>Nickel stocks have also mushroomed thanks to Indonesia’s continued production boom, which has caused global supply growth to far outstrip demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于印尼持续的生产繁荣，镍库存也激增，导致全球供应增长远远超过需求。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that exchange stocks would be even higher had there not been what Macquarie Bank describes as “large unreported strategic stockpiling” in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，如果没有麦格理银行所描述的 “中国大规模未报告的战略性囤积”，交易所的库存将会更高。</p>
</div><p>The bad news is that the LME has just approved a new Indonesian nickel brand, produced by PT Eternal Industry at a rate of 50,000 tons per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坏消息是，LME 刚刚批准了由 PT Eternal Industry 生产的新印尼镍品牌，年产量为 50,000 吨。</p>
</div><p>Nickel is currently enjoying an end-of-year bounce on renewed hope that Indonesia can tame its production growth in 2026, which says everything you need to know about the nickel market right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>镍目前正享受年底的反弹，寄希望于印尼能够在 2026 年遏制其生产增长，这一切都说明了当前镍市场的状况。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省的数据驱动评论。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>LME metals relative performance in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 LME 金属相对表现</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR"/></p>
<p>Threat of US import tariffs has upended CME-LME copper arbitrage</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国进口关税的威胁颠覆了 CME-LME 铜的套利</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ"/></p>
<p>Funds build record long position on LME tin contract</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基金在 LME 锡合约上建立了创纪录的多头头寸</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo"/></p>
<p>US import tariffs have split the global aluminium market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国进口关税分裂了全球铝市场</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx"/></p>
<p>LME zinc spreads exploded to record levels of backwardation in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所锌的价差在 2025 年爆炸性地达到了历史最高的逆价差水平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc"/></p>
<p>LME lead stocks at multi-year highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所铅库存达到多年高位</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc"/></p>
<p>Chinese nickel is surging into LME warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国镍正在涌入伦敦金属交易所仓库</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：Marguerita Choy）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投资回报率 - 颠覆与错位：LME 金属年度回顾七张图表：Andy Home