<ul>
<li>想知道力拓集团在强劲表现后是否仍然具有良好的价值，或者你是否已经错过了最佳时机？本分析旨在为你提供一个清晰、直截了当的视角，让你了解自己真正支付的价格。</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周上涨了 5.3%，在过去一个月上涨了 11.7%，年初至今上涨了 24.5%，过去一年上涨了 34.2%。这些变动自然引发了一个问题：这些股票是否开始看起来被充分定价，还是仍然有上升空间。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在力拓集团的战略推动上，旨在确保长期的铁矿石资产并在铜领域扩展，以满足长期电气化需求，同时也在持续努力简化投资组合并改善资本纪律。与此同时，关于中国钢铁需求、商品价格波动以及力拓集团的环境和社区影响的讨论都影响了市场情绪，并帮助塑造了这些价格变动。</li>
<li>在我们的检查驱动估值视角下，力拓集团在低估检查中得分为 5 分（满分 6 分），这表明市场可能仍在低估其基本面。接下来，我们将逐步介绍该得分背后的主要估值方法，然后以更全面的方式思考力拓集团在长期内的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
<p>了解为什么力拓集团过去一年 34.2% 的回报落后于同行。</p>
<h3>方法一：力拓集团折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，以反映风险和货币时间价值，从而估算企业的价值。</p>
<p>对于力拓集团，该模型从过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 71 亿美元开始，并使用分析师对未来几年的预测，然后将这些估算进一步延伸。Simply Wall St 采用了两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，详细预测到 2035 年，自由现金流预计将上升至大约数十亿美元的中间水平。</p>
<p>当所有这些未来现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 89.25 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这意味着股票的交易价格大约有 33.5% 的折扣，暗示投资者并未充分考虑力拓集团未来的现金生成能力。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明力拓集团被低估了 33.5%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 898 只被低估的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 RIO 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出力拓集团的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：力拓集团市盈率与收益</h3>
<p>对于像力拓这样盈利且成熟的企业，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者为每单位当前收益支付多少的有用方式。它在一个数字中捕捉了市场对利润的持久性和未来增长的看法。</p>
<p>什么算是正常或公平的市盈率取决于预期收益的增长速度和这些收益的风险程度。更高的增长和较低的感知风险通常会合理化更高的倍数，而周期性或不确定的收益往往以较低的市盈率交易。</p>
<p>力拓目前的市盈率约为 12.6 倍，低于金属和矿业行业平均水平约 18.1 倍，也远低于同行平均水平约 47.6 倍。Simply Wall St 还计算出一个公允比率为 25.7 倍，这是根据力拓的收益增长前景、行业、利润率、规模和风险特征得出的市盈率的专有估计。这个公允比率比简单的同行比较更具针对性，因为它调整了这些公司特定因素，而不是假设所有矿业公司都应获得相同的倍数。以 12.6 倍的市盈率与 25.7 倍的公允比率相比，估值仍然显得相对不高。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 LSE:RIO 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1458 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>升级你的决策：选择你的力拓集团叙述</h3>
<p>早些时候我们提到，有一种更好的方式来理解估值。让我们向你介绍叙述，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，可以让你将对力拓集团的看法转化为一个由数字支持的清晰故事。它将你对其项目、市场和风险的看法与具体的收入、收益和利润率预测联系起来，然后汇总成一个公允价值，你可以将其与当前股价进行比较，以帮助你决定是买入、持有还是卖出。这些叙述会随着新消息或收益的到来而自动更新。两个投资者可以合理地持不同意见：一个可能围绕加速的铜和锂增长构建一个乐观的叙述，并将公允价值设定得更接近顶级分析师目标的约 66.68 英镑。另一个可能关注执行和商品风险，假设较低的增长和利润率，最终接近最谨慎的目标约 41.00 英镑。两者都可以清楚地看到他们的假设如何驱动他们的估值，以及他们与市场的不同之处。</p>
<p>你认为力拓集团的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>LSE:RIO 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们提供的评论基于历史数据和分析师预测，仅使用无偏的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>
<p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔楼，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达，随时随地。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>

力拓

力拓集团

<p>本文评估了力拓在 2025 年的股价反弹是否过度，考虑了其近期表现和战略举措。尽管过去一年股价上涨了 34.2%，但根据贴现现金流分析和市盈率，该股票被认为被低估。DCF 模型显示其内在价值有 33.5% 的折扣，而市盈率低于行业平均水平，表明未来有进一步增长的潜力</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if Rio Tinto Group is still good value after a strong run, or if you might be late to the party? This breakdown is designed to give you a clear, no nonsense view of what you are really paying for.</li>
<li>The stock has climbed 5.3% over the last week, 11.7% over the last month, and is now up 24.5% year to date and 34.2% over the past year. These moves naturally raise the question of whether the shares are starting to look fully priced or still offer upside.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have focused on Rio Tinto's strategic push to secure long life iron ore assets and expand in copper to tap into long term electrification demand, as well as its ongoing efforts to simplify the portfolio and improve capital discipline. At the same time, debates around Chinese steel demand, commodity price volatility, and Rio Tinto's environmental and community footprint have all fed into shifting market sentiment and helped shape these price moves.</li>
<li>On our checklist driven valuation lens, Rio Tinto scores a 5 out of 6 on undervaluation checks, giving it a valuation score of 5/6. This indicates the market may still be underestimating its fundamentals. Next, we will walk through the main valuation approaches behind that score, and then finish with a more holistic way of thinking about what Rio Tinto is really worth in the long run.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道力拓集团在强劲表现后是否仍然具有良好的价值，或者你是否已经错过了最佳时机？本分析旨在为你提供一个清晰、直截了当的视角，让你了解自己真正支付的价格。</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周上涨了 5.3%，在过去一个月上涨了 11.7%，年初至今上涨了 24.5%，过去一年上涨了 34.2%。这些变动自然引发了一个问题：这些股票是否开始看起来被充分定价，还是仍然有上升空间。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在力拓集团的战略推动上，旨在确保长期的铁矿石资产并在铜领域扩展，以满足长期电气化需求，同时也在持续努力简化投资组合并改善资本纪律。与此同时，关于中国钢铁需求、商品价格波动以及力拓集团的环境和社区影响的讨论都影响了市场情绪，并帮助塑造了这些价格变动。</li>
<li>在我们的检查驱动估值视角下，力拓集团在低估检查中得分为 5 分（满分 6 分），这表明市场可能仍在低估其基本面。接下来，我们将逐步介绍该得分背后的主要估值方法，然后以更全面的方式思考力拓集团在长期内的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Find out why Rio Tinto Group's 34.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解为什么力拓集团过去一年 34.2% 的回报落后于同行。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Rio Tinto Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：力拓集团折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today to reflect risk and the time value of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，以反映风险和货币时间价值，从而估算企业的价值。</p>
</div><p>For Rio Tinto Group, the model starts from last twelve month free cash flow of about $7.1 Billion and uses analyst forecasts for the next few years, then extends those estimates further out. Simply Wall St applies a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, with detailed projections out to 2035, where free cash flow is expected to rise toward roughly the mid teens in Billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于力拓集团，该模型从过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 71 亿美元开始，并使用分析师对未来几年的预测，然后将这些估算进一步延伸。Simply Wall St 采用了两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，详细预测到 2035 年，自由现金流预计将上升至大约数十亿美元的中间水平。</p>
</div><p>When all these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $89.25 per share. Versus the current market price, this implies the shares trade at roughly a 33.5% discount, suggesting investors are not fully pricing in Rio Tinto's future cash generation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当所有这些未来现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 89.25 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这意味着股票的交易价格大约有 33.5% 的折扣，暗示投资者并未充分考虑力拓集团未来的现金生成能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Rio Tinto Group is undervalued by 33.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 898 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明力拓集团被低估了 33.5%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 898 只被低估的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>RIO Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 RIO 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Rio Tinto Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出力拓集团的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Rio Tinto Group Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：力拓集团市盈率与收益</h3>
</div><p>For a profitable, established business like Rio Tinto, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are paying for each unit of current earnings. It captures, in a single number, the market's view on both the durability of profits and the growth still ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像力拓这样盈利且成熟的企业，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者为每单位当前收益支付多少的有用方式。它在一个数字中捕捉了市场对利润的持久性和未来增长的看法。</p>
</div><p>What counts as a normal or fair PE depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher growth and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher multiple, while cyclical or uncertain earnings tend to trade on lower PEs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什么算是正常或公平的市盈率取决于预期收益的增长速度和这些收益的风险程度。更高的增长和较低的感知风险通常会合理化更高的倍数，而周期性或不确定的收益往往以较低的市盈率交易。</p>
</div><p>Rio Tinto currently trades on about 12.6x earnings, which is below both the metals and mining industry average of roughly 18.1x and well under the peer group average of about 47.6x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 25.7x, a proprietary estimate of the PE Rio Tinto should trade on given its earnings growth outlook, industry, margins, size, and risk profile. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer comparison because it adjusts for those company specific factors rather than assuming all miners deserve the same multiple. With the shares at 12.6x versus a Fair Ratio of 25.7x, the valuation still looks meaningfully undemanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>力拓目前的市盈率约为 12.6 倍，低于金属和矿业行业平均水平约 18.1 倍，也远低于同行平均水平约 47.6 倍。Simply Wall St 还计算出一个公允比率为 25.7 倍，这是根据力拓的收益增长前景、行业、利润率、规模和风险特征得出的市盈率的专有估计。这个公允比率比简单的同行比较更具针对性，因为它调整了这些公司特定因素，而不是假设所有矿业公司都应获得相同的倍数。以 12.6 倍的市盈率与 25.7 倍的公允比率相比，估值仍然显得相对不高。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>LSE:RIO PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 LSE:RIO 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1458 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1458 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Rio Tinto Group Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>升级你的决策：选择你的力拓集团叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let's introduce you to Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St's Community page that lets you turn your view of Rio Tinto Group into a clear story backed by numbers. It links what you believe about its projects, markets, and risks to specific revenue, earnings, and margin forecasts, which then roll up into a Fair Value you can compare to the current share price to help you decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. These Narratives automatically refresh as new news or earnings arrive. Two investors can reasonably disagree: one might build a bullish Narrative around accelerating copper and lithium growth and assign a higher fair value closer to the top analyst target of about £66.68. Another might focus on execution and commodity risk, assume lower growth and margins, and land nearer the most cautious target of roughly £41.00. Both can see exactly how their assumptions drive their valuation and where they differ from the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早些时候我们提到，有一种更好的方式来理解估值。让我们向你介绍叙述，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，可以让你将对力拓集团的看法转化为一个由数字支持的清晰故事。它将你对其项目、市场和风险的看法与具体的收入、收益和利润率预测联系起来，然后汇总成一个公允价值，你可以将其与当前股价进行比较，以帮助你决定是买入、持有还是卖出。这些叙述会随着新消息或收益的到来而自动更新。两个投资者可以合理地持不同意见：一个可能围绕加速的铜和锂增长构建一个乐观的叙述，并将公允价值设定得更接近顶级分析师目标的约 66.68 英镑。另一个可能关注执行和商品风险，假设较低的增长和利润率，最终接近最谨慎的目标约 41.00 英镑。两者都可以清楚地看到他们的假设如何驱动他们的估值，以及他们与市场的不同之处。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Rio Tinto Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为力拓集团的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/90788ed8-f84f-4f80-9efa-21a75eabb484/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>LSE:RIO 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LSE:RIO 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们提供的评论基于历史数据和分析师预测，仅使用无偏的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔楼，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达，随时随地。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>
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力拓在 2025 年的股价上涨是否已经过度？