<p>作者：Mike Dolan</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——在 2025 年，贵金属无疑是赢家，而几乎所有其他传统的 “避险” 投资表现不佳。这在一个动荡、冲突和人工智能泡沫担忧不断升温的一年中尤为显著。经济运行火热，政治家推动宽松货币政策，衰退担忧减退，人工智能热潮席卷市场，地缘政治紧张局势上升，共同塑造了今年的市场格局。贵金属的表现超越了几乎所有其他资产。银（XAG=）和铂金（XPT=）的价格翻了一番以上，而黄金（XAU=）上涨超过 60%，是自 1979 年石油危机以来的最大涨幅。这一表现远超全球股票指数约 20% 的涨幅。黄金、白银和铂金是否陷入了自身的投机泡沫仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。但它们的强劲表现得益于中央银行的强劲需求以及它们在更广泛科技建设中的关键作用。</p>
<p>然而，广泛的商品指数在今年表现不佳，受到不断增加的石油过剩的拖累。尽管在 2025 年中东发生了几次紧张时刻，并伴随着原油价格飙升至每桶 100 美元的担忧，但原油价格（LCOc1）实际上同比下降了 20%，现在几乎降至该水平的一半。如果你担心全球冲突，最好的投资选择不是传统的防御性行业，如公用事业和消费品，而是国防行业本身。美国航空航天和国防股票在 2025 年上涨了 36%，而欧洲同行则上涨了 55%，德国和整个欧洲重新武装。</p>
<h3>债券和防御性投资表现不佳</h3>
<p>今年大多数其他传统的缓冲和安全投资反而成为投资组合的负担，而不是保护。即使是一些人称之为 “数字黄金” 的加密货币代币，如比特币，今年也以亏损收尾。</p>
<p>债券市场同样表现不佳。全球 “无风险” 政府债券指数在美元计价下损失了约 1%，而总回报率略超过 6%。包括政府、超国家、机构和公司债务的彭博多元化债券基准表现稍好，价格上涨约 1%，总回报接近 7%。</p>
<p>这不到 MSCI 全球股票指数上涨的一半，该指数有望实现自 2019 年疫情前以来的最佳年度表现。</p>
<p>在股票市场中，采取防御性策略并不是一个成功的策略。整体标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在科技巨头和人工智能主题的推动下，年涨幅达 15%，强劲的美国经济复苏和 2025 年下半年利率下降使华尔街大多数股票受益。但标准普尔 500 指数的 “成长” 股票上涨了 20%，是 “价值” 股票涨幅的两倍多。标准普尔 500 指数的总回报也比等权重指数高出 5 个百分点。尽管公用事业、医疗保健和金融行业的表现不错，涨幅超过 10%，但它们都落后于主要指数。消费品仅上涨约 2%，表现最差。最后，道琼斯工业平均指数（.DJI）蓝筹股也表现不及标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数（.IXIC）。</p>
<p>安全性最后？在货币中，日本的日元（JPY=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）通常被视为避险资产，但其中一个在年末也令人失望。</p>
<p>美元（USD=）在 2025 年上半年下滑，最初推动日元和瑞士法郎走高，但日元随后失去了所有涨幅。日本央行的进一步加息未能提供帮助，因为投资者对新的财政刺激措施感到担忧，并在新任首相高市早苗的上任下，国内债券市场感到不安。</p>
<p>在对日本主要贸易伙伴的实际有效汇率中，日元全年下跌约 4%。</p>
<p>然而，瑞士法郎保持了早期的涨幅，并与黄金和白银一起成为 2025 年为数不多的成功避风港之一。</p>
<p>但如果你在年初将美元视为地缘政治压力下的避风港，你就得重新考虑了。</p>
<p>在今年一些最动荡的月份，DXY 美元指数下跌了 12%，并在中东、东欧甚至加勒比海的多个危机点保持疲软。对于那些对市场动荡感到担忧的投资者，另一种策略是购买与波动性相关的指数，以从股票和债券的剧烈波动中获利。</p>
<p>但这些 “降落伞” 在 2025 年也并没有真正发挥作用。尽管春季波动剧烈，标准普尔 500 指数的 VIX（.VIX）“恐慌指数” 在年末结束时比年初低了两个点。国债市场的等效指标 MOVE 指数也不到其开盘水平的三分之二，且低于四月的峰值一半。主要货币市场的波动性指标也有所下降。今年并没有真正值得过于谨慎的投资。</p>
<p>2026 年是双倍还是退出？</p>
<p>这里表达的观点是作者的，作者为路透社专栏作家。——喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。在 LinkedIn 上关注 ROI。此外，注册我的工作日通讯《晨间投标美国》。</p>
<p>确实珍贵——黄金、白银和铂金的繁荣</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="949" height="709" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y"/></p>
<p>国防胜于防御性投资</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="950" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg"/></p>
<p>大型加密货币代币表现不佳</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="949" height="714" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD"/></p>
<p>“安全” 的政府债券表现平平</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="951" height="712" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C"/></p>
<p>防御性股票行业在华尔街表现不佳</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="950" height="709" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn"/></p>
<p>美元和日元都没有 “安全性”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="952" height="711" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90"/></p>
<p>在 2025 年购买波动性没有乐趣</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="952" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0"/></p>
<p>（作者：Mike Dolan；编辑：Marguerita Choy）</p>

塔吉特

开市客

克罗格

<p>贵金属，尤其是银、铂和金，在 2025 年成为表现最佳的投资，显著超越了传统的避险资产和全球股票指数。美国和欧洲的防御类股票也实现了可观的涨幅。相比之下，债券、公用事业、消费品和加密货币表现不佳。日元贬值，而瑞士法郎保持了其价值。美元走弱，波动率指数未能提供预期的保护。总体而言，谨慎的投资策略在 2025 年并未获得回报</p>

<p>By Mike Dolan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Mike Dolan</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Precious metals were the clear winner in 2025, while pretty much all other traditional “safe haven” investments underperformed. That’s remarkable in a year marked by turbulence, conflict, and rumbling artificial intelligence bubble fears. Economies ran hot, politicians pushed for easy money, recession fears faded, an AI frenzy gripped markets, and geopolitical tensions rose, together shaping this year’s market landscape. Precious metals outpaced almost everything else. Silver (XAG=) and platinum (XPT=) more than doubled, and gold (XAU=) rose over 60%, its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis. That performance trounced the roughly 20% gains in global equity indexes. Whether gold, silver, and platinum are caught in a speculative bubble of their own is still an open question. But their strength is bolstered by strong central bank demand and their role as key inputs in the broader tech build-out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——在 2025 年，贵金属无疑是赢家，而几乎所有其他传统的 “避险” 投资表现不佳。这在一个动荡、冲突和人工智能泡沫担忧不断升温的一年中尤为显著。经济运行火热，政治家推动宽松货币政策，衰退担忧减退，人工智能热潮席卷市场，地缘政治紧张局势上升，共同塑造了今年的市场格局。贵金属的表现超越了几乎所有其他资产。银（XAG=）和铂金（XPT=）的价格翻了一番以上，而黄金（XAU=）上涨超过 60%，是自 1979 年石油危机以来的最大涨幅。这一表现远超全球股票指数约 20% 的涨幅。黄金、白银和铂金是否陷入了自身的投机泡沫仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。但它们的强劲表现得益于中央银行的强劲需求以及它们在更广泛科技建设中的关键作用。</p>
</div><p>Wider commodity indexes flubbed this year, however, drowned by a swelling oil glut. Despite several tense moments in the Middle East during 2025, and the associated fears of crude jumping to $100 a barrel, crude prices (LCOc1) actually fell 20% year-on-year and now sit at almost half that level. If you were worried about global conflict, the best place to put your money was not in traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, but in the defense sector itself. U.S. aerospace and defense stocks clocked gains of 36% in 2025, while European counterparts jumped 55% and Germany and the continent re-armed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，广泛的商品指数在今年表现不佳，受到不断增加的石油过剩的拖累。尽管在 2025 年中东发生了几次紧张时刻，并伴随着原油价格飙升至每桶 100 美元的担忧，但原油价格（LCOc1）实际上同比下降了 20%，现在几乎降至该水平的一半。如果你担心全球冲突，最好的投资选择不是传统的防御性行业，如公用事业和消费品，而是国防行业本身。美国航空航天和国防股票在 2025 年上涨了 36%，而欧洲同行则上涨了 55%，德国和整个欧洲重新武装。</p>
</div><h3>LAGGING BONDS AND DEFENSIVES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>债券和防御性投资表现不佳</h3>
</div><p>Most other traditional buffers and safety plays were dead weights on portfolios this year rather than protection. Even crypto tokens like bitcoin - touted by some as “digital gold” - are ending the year in the red.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年大多数其他传统的缓冲和安全投资反而成为投资组合的负担，而不是保护。即使是一些人称之为 “数字黄金” 的加密货币代币，如比特币，今年也以亏损收尾。</p>
</div><p>It was also a poor year for bonds. Global “risk-free” government bond indexes lost about 1% in dollar terms, while clocking just over 6% on a total return basis. Broader global bond benchmarks such as the Bloomberg Multiverse, which includes government, supra-national, agency and corporate debt, did little better, with price gains of about 1% and total returns near 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券市场同样表现不佳。全球 “无风险” 政府债券指数在美元计价下损失了约 1%，而总回报率略超过 6%。包括政府、超国家、机构和公司债务的彭博多元化债券基准表现稍好，价格上涨约 1%，总回报接近 7%。</p>
</div><p>That’s less than half the rise in MSCI’s all-country stock index, which is on track for its best year since before the pandemic in 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不到 MSCI 全球股票指数上涨的一半，该指数有望实现自 2019 年疫情前以来的最佳年度表现。</p>
</div><p>Within equities, going defensive wasn’t a winning strategy. The overall S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) , flattered by tech megacaps and the AI theme, notched annual gains of 15%, as a strong U.S. economic rebound and falling interest rates in the second half of 2025 lifted most Wall Street boats. But S&amp;P 500 “growth” stocks jumped 20%, more than double the gains of “value” stocks. The S&amp;P 500’s total return was also 5 percentage points more than the equal-weighted cut of the index. While utilities, healthcare and financials had a decent year with more than 10% gains, they all trailed the main index. Consumer staples managed only about 2%, bringing up the rear. Finally, the Dow Industrials (.DJI) blue chips also underperformed both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票市场中，采取防御性策略并不是一个成功的策略。整体标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在科技巨头和人工智能主题的推动下，年涨幅达 15%，强劲的美国经济复苏和 2025 年下半年利率下降使华尔街大多数股票受益。但标准普尔 500 指数的 “成长” 股票上涨了 20%，是 “价值” 股票涨幅的两倍多。标准普尔 500 指数的总回报也比等权重指数高出 5 个百分点。尽管公用事业、医疗保健和金融行业的表现不错，涨幅超过 10%，但它们都落后于主要指数。消费品仅上涨约 2%，表现最差。最后，道琼斯工业平均指数（.DJI）蓝筹股也表现不及标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数（.IXIC）。</p>
</div><p>SAFETY LAST? Among currencies, Japan’s yen (JPY=) and Switzerland’s franc (CHF=) are usually viewed as safety plays - but one of them also disappointed by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安全性最后？在货币中，日本的日元（JPY=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）通常被视为避险资产，但其中一个在年末也令人失望。</p>
</div><p>The dollar’s (USD=) slide in the first half of 2025 initially drove both the yen and Swiss franc higher, but the Japanese currency subsequently surrendered all its gains. A further Bank of Japan rate hike failed to help as investors fretted about fresh fiscal stimulus and were unsettled in domestic bond markets by the arrival of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（USD=）在 2025 年上半年下滑，最初推动日元和瑞士法郎走高，但日元随后失去了所有涨幅。日本央行的进一步加息未能提供帮助，因为投资者对新的财政刺激措施感到担忧，并在新任首相高市早苗的上任下，国内债券市场感到不安。</p>
</div><p>In real effective terms against Japan’s main trading partners, the yen fell about 4% over the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在对日本主要贸易伙伴的实际有效汇率中，日元全年下跌约 4%。</p>
</div><p>The franc, however, held on to its early gains and, along with gold and silver, was one of the few havens to make good in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，瑞士法郎保持了早期的涨幅，并与黄金和白银一起成为 2025 年为数不多的成功避风港之一。</p>
</div><p>But if you went into the year viewing the dollar as a haven in times of geopolitical stress, you had to think again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你在年初将美元视为地缘政治压力下的避风港，你就得重新考虑了。</p>
</div><p>The DXY dollar index fell 12% during some of the year’s most turbulent months, and stayed weak through multiple flashpoints in the Middle East, eastern Europe and even the Caribbean. Another strategy for investors wary of market disruptions would have been to buy options-related volatility indexes to profit from wild gyrations in stocks and bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年一些最动荡的月份，DXY 美元指数下跌了 12%，并在中东、东欧甚至加勒比海的多个危机点保持疲软。对于那些对市场动荡感到担忧的投资者，另一种策略是购买与波动性相关的指数，以从股票和债券的剧烈波动中获利。</p>
</div><p>But these parachutes never really opened either in 2025. Despite big swings in the spring, the S&amp;P 500’s VIX (.VIX) “fear index” of one-month implied volatility is ending the year two points below where it started. The Treasury market equivalent, the MOVE index, is less than two-thirds its opening level and below half its April peak. The main currency market ‘vol’ gauges are lower as well. It simply didn’t really pay to be too cautious this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这些 “降落伞” 在 2025 年也并没有真正发挥作用。尽管春季波动剧烈，标准普尔 500 指数的 VIX（.VIX）“恐慌指数” 在年末结束时比年初低了两个点。国债市场的等效指标 MOVE 指数也不到其开盘水平的三分之二，且低于四月的峰值一半。主要货币市场的波动性指标也有所下降。今年并没有真正值得过于谨慎的投资。</p>
</div><p>Doubles or quits for 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年是双倍还是退出？</p>
</div><p>The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. – Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter, Morning Bid U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里表达的观点是作者的，作者为路透社专栏作家。——喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。在 LinkedIn 上关注 ROI。此外，注册我的工作日通讯《晨间投标美国》。</p>
</div><p>Precious indeed - gold, silver and platinum boom</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实珍贵——黄金、白银和铂金的繁荣</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y"/></p>
<p>Defense, rather than defensive investment, wins out</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防胜于防御性投资</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg"/></p>
<p>Big crypto tokens underwhelm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型加密货币代币表现不佳</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD"/></p>
<p>“Safe” government bonds fall flat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“安全” 的政府债券表现平平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C"/></p>
<p>Defensive stock sectors underperform on Wall St</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>防御性股票行业在华尔街表现不佳</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn"/></p>
<p>No ‘safety’ in either dollar or yen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元和日元都没有 “安全性”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90"/></p>
<p>No joy in buying volatility in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年购买波动性没有乐趣</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0"/></p>
<p>(by Mike Dolan; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Mike Dolan；编辑：Marguerita Choy）</p>
</div>

Mike Dolan 表示，2025 年枪支和黄金在投资回报率上表现出色，但其他被视为 “安全” 的交易却遭遇失败