<p>万科的债券展期努力面临债权人高拒绝率</p>
<p>分析师预计万科将在重组前寻求多次宽限期延长</p>
<p>万科被视为地方政府支持困境企业的试验案例</p>
<p>作者：Clare Jim 和 Li Gu</p>
<p>香港/上海，12 月 23 日（路透社）—— 信用分析师表示，国有支持的中国万科可能会效仿一些其他资金紧张的中国开发商的策略，在最终提出债务重组之前，寻求多次短期的债券还款展期。</p>
<p>万科（000002.SZ）上个月意外地向市场寻求对其 20 亿元人民币（约合 2.84 亿美元）于 12 月 15 日到期的债券展期一年，尽管今年获得了主要股东深圳地铁注入的 220 亿元人民币贷款。</p>
<p>该努力失败，债权人再次强烈拒绝了万科（2202.HK）周一提出的延迟还款的提案。但开发商勉强避免了违约，因为他们批准了一项将债券还款宽限期从五天延长至 30 个交易日的计划。</p>
<p>万科的提案需要至少 90% 的批准率才能通过。宽限期延长计划获得了 90.7% 的支持，而提供逾期利息支付并增加信用增强以推迟本金支付的提案则以 78.3% 的反对票被拒绝。</p>
<p>分析师表示，压倒性的拒绝率显示债权人对缺乏前期现金支付和本金摊销感到失望，因为他们在之前的案例中看到开发商在到期时反复延长还款。</p>
<p>他们预计万科的 37 亿元人民币在岸债券（于 12 月 28 日到期）也会有类似的投票结果，开发商同样寻求将本金和利息支付延迟一年，并将债券的宽限期延长至 30 个交易日。投票于周一开始，预计于周四结束。</p>
<p>“最终是否实施提案取决于万科。因此，执行风险很高，” CreditSights 亚洲信用策略负责人 Zerlina Zeng 表示。</p>
<p>“我们认为万科可能会请求多次延长宽限期，直到进入全面的债务重组。”</p>
<p>一位本月早些时候出售万科人民币债券的上海投资者也预计该公司迟早会违约。“信用增强无济于事；看看其他开发商如融创就知道了，” 他说。</p>
<p>在 2024 年底的一项里程碑交易中，在多次债券展期后，融创（1918.HK）提出了债转股和大幅减记其在岸债务的方案，旨在将债务规模削减一半以上。今年实施了该交易。</p>
<h3>试验案例</h3>
<p>自 2021 年以来受到流动性危机影响，中国高度负债的开发商在 2022 年开始处理离岸债务的重组。但对于政治敏感的在岸债务，他们反复延长到期，寄希望于现金流的回升，但迄今未能实现。</p>
<p>万科曾是中国销售额最大的开发商，其违约可能会打击购房者对该公司重点城市的信心，而这些城市的房价正在稳定。</p>
<p>万科现在被视为地方政府愿意支持困境企业避免违约的试验案例。</p>
<p>市场参与者表示，万科的违约和重组也可能给许多面临财务压力的地方国有企业带来更多麻烦，包括地方政府融资平台（LGFVs），如果政策制定者对不付款率采取更高的容忍度。</p>
<p>深圳地铁今年同意提供贷款，前提是万科提供抵押品。但这种支持不足以覆盖万科的 3643 亿元人民币借款。</p>
<p>中国国际资本公司（CICC）已被引入评估万科的债务，消息人士告诉路透社，债务重组是该投资银行在向中央政府提交的内部报告中提到的选项之一。</p>
<p>“深圳地铁发出了支持减少的信号，万科不能再依赖政府的帮助，它需要想出其他解决问题的方法，” UOB Kay Hian 的董事 Steven Leung 表示，他建议通过减记进行重组将是理想的，以削减债务并减轻还款压力。</p>

万科A

万科企业

<p>万科面临债券展期提案的高拒绝率，寻求多次宽限期延长以便进行重组。分析师将万科视为地方政府对困境企业支持的试金石。尽管获得了深圳地铁的贷款，万科仍勉强避免了违约，并获得了宽限期延长的批准。执行风险依然很高，可能需要通过减记进行重组以缓解还款压力</p>

<p>Vanke’s bond extension efforts face high rejection rates from bondholders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科的债券展期努力面临债权人高拒绝率</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect Vanke to pursue multiple grace period extensions before a restructuring</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计万科将在重组前寻求多次宽限期延长</p>
</div><p>Vanke seen as a test case for local government support in distressed companies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科被视为地方政府支持困境企业的试验案例</p>
</div><p>By Clare Jim and Li Gu</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Clare Jim 和 Li Gu</p>
</div><p>HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - State-backed China Vanke will likely mirror the strategies of some other cash-strapped Chinese developers and seek multiple short-term extensions for its bond repayments before ultimately proposing a debt restructuring, credit analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港/上海，12 月 23 日（路透社）—— 信用分析师表示，国有支持的中国万科可能会效仿一些其他资金紧张的中国开发商的策略，在最终提出债务重组之前，寻求多次短期的债券还款展期。</p>
</div><p>Vanke (000002.SZ) surprised the market last month by seeking a public bond extension for its 2 billion yuan ($284 million) note due December 15 by a year despite getting a loan infusion of 22 billion yuan from major shareholder Shenzhen Metro, a company owned by the Shenzhen government, this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科（000002.SZ）上个月意外地向市场寻求对其 20 亿元人民币（约合 2.84 亿美元）于 12 月 15 日到期的债券展期一年，尽管今年获得了主要股东深圳地铁注入的 220 亿元人民币贷款。</p>
</div><p>That effort failed and bondholders again resoundingly rejected Vanke’s (2202.HK) sweetened proposal on Monday to delay repayment. But the developer narrowly dodged a default as they approved a plan to extend the grace period of the bond repayment to 30 trading days from five.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该努力失败，债权人再次强烈拒绝了万科（2202.HK）周一提出的延迟还款的提案。但开发商勉强避免了违约，因为他们批准了一项将债券还款宽限期从五天延长至 30 个交易日的计划。</p>
</div><p>Vanke’s proposals required at least a 90% approval rate to pass. The grace period extension plan achieved 90.7%, while the sweetened proposal that offered to pay overdue interest and add credit enhancements to postpone principal payments was rejected with 78.3% opposing it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科的提案需要至少 90% 的批准率才能通过。宽限期延长计划获得了 90.7% 的支持，而提供逾期利息支付并增加信用增强以推迟本金支付的提案则以 78.3% 的反对票被拒绝。</p>
</div><p>The overwhelming rejection rate shows bondholders were disappointed by the lack of upfront cash payment and principal amortisation, analysts said, as they saw in previous cases where developers had repeatedly extended repayments when they became due.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，压倒性的拒绝率显示债权人对缺乏前期现金支付和本金摊销感到失望，因为他们在之前的案例中看到开发商在到期时反复延长还款。</p>
</div><p>They expected similar voting results for Vanke’s 3.7 billion yuan onshore note due December 28, in which the developer is also seeking to delay the principal and interest payments by a year and extend the note’s grace period to 30 trading days. Voting started on Monday and is due to conclude on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们预计万科的 37 亿元人民币在岸债券（于 12 月 28 日到期）也会有类似的投票结果，开发商同样寻求将本金和利息支付延迟一年，并将债券的宽限期延长至 30 个交易日。投票于周一开始，预计于周四结束。</p>
</div><p>“It is ultimately up to Vanke to decide whether to implement the proposal. So, execution risk is high,” said Zerlina Zeng, head of Asia credit strategy at CreditSights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“最终是否实施提案取决于万科。因此，执行风险很高，” CreditSights 亚洲信用策略负责人 Zerlina Zeng 表示。</p>
</div><p>“We think Vanke may request to extend the grace period multiple times until it enters a holistic debt restructuring.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为万科可能会请求多次延长宽限期，直到进入全面的债务重组。”</p>
</div><p>A Shanghai-based investor who sold off his Vanke yuan bonds earlier this month also expected the firm to default sooner or later. “Credit enhancement won’t help; just look at other developers like Sunac,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位本月早些时候出售万科人民币债券的上海投资者也预计该公司迟早会违约。“信用增强无济于事；看看其他开发商如融创就知道了，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>In a landmark deal in late 2024, after several repeated bond extensions, Sunac (1918.HK) proposed a debt-to-equity swap and steep haircuts for its onshore debt, with an aim to cut the debt size by more than half. It implemented the deal this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年底的一项里程碑交易中，在多次债券展期后，融创（1918.HK）提出了债转股和大幅减记其在岸债务的方案，旨在将债务规模削减一半以上。今年实施了该交易。</p>
</div><h3>TEST CASE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>试验案例</h3>
</div><p>Hit by a liquidity crisis since 2021, China’s highly indebted developers began tackling the restructuring of offshore bonds in 2022. But for politically sensitive onshore bonds, they have repeatedly extended maturities, pinning their hopes on a pickup in cash flow that has failed to materialise so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2021 年以来受到流动性危机影响，中国高度负债的开发商在 2022 年开始处理离岸债务的重组。但对于政治敏感的在岸债务，他们反复延长到期，寄希望于现金流的回升，但迄今未能实现。</p>
</div><p>A credit default by Vanke, formerly China’s biggest developer by sales, could knock homebuyer confidence in the country’s top-tier cities, which are the company’s focus areas and where house prices have been stabilising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科曾是中国销售额最大的开发商，其违约可能会打击购房者对该公司重点城市的信心，而这些城市的房价正在稳定。</p>
</div><p>Vanke is now seen as a test case for how much local governments are willing to backstop distressed firms from slipping into defaults.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万科现在被视为地方政府愿意支持困境企业避免违约的试验案例。</p>
</div><p>A default and restructuring by Vanke could also spell more trouble for local state-owned enterprises, many of which are under financial strain, including local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), market participants said, if policymakers adopt a higher tolerance to non-payment rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场参与者表示，万科的违约和重组也可能给许多面临财务压力的地方国有企业带来更多麻烦，包括地方政府融资平台（LGFVs），如果政策制定者对不付款率采取更高的容忍度。</p>
</div><p>Shenzhen Metro agreed this year to provide loans, provided that Vanke pledges collateral. But the support is insufficient to cover Vanke’s 364.3 billion yuan of borrowings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深圳地铁今年同意提供贷款，前提是万科提供抵押品。但这种支持不足以覆盖万科的 3643 亿元人民币借款。</p>
</div><p>China International Capital Corporation (CICC) had been brought in to assess Vanke’s debt, sources have told Reuters, and a debt restructuring was among the options the investment bank featured in an internal report to the central government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国国际资本公司（CICC）已被引入评估万科的债务，消息人士告诉路透社，债务重组是该投资银行在向中央政府提交的内部报告中提到的选项之一。</p>
</div><p>“Shenzhen Metro signalled dwindling support, Vanke cannot rely on government help any more, it will need to come up with other ways to solve the problem,” said Steven Leung, director of UOB Kay Hian, who suggested a restructuring with haircuts would be ideal to cut debt and ease repayment pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“深圳地铁发出了支持减少的信号，万科不能再依赖政府的帮助，它需要想出其他解决问题的方法，” UOB Kay Hian 的董事 Steven Leung 表示，他建议通过减记进行重组将是理想的，以削减债务并减轻还款压力。</p>
</div>

分析师称，万科可能会在中国采用熟悉的策略来解决债务危机