<p>随着假日季节的临近，比特币交易者对潜在的 “圣诞反弹” 充满乐观——这一节日性的上涨可能会将加密货币推升至超过 100,000 美元。目前，比特币在经历了一段整合后徘徊在 90,000 美元左右，尽管市场波动加剧，但其表现出韧性。</p>
<p>“圣诞反弹” 通常出现在传统市场的年末，涉及流动性减少、机构再平衡和季节性情绪推动价格上涨。</p>
<p>来自 CoinMarketCap 和 TradingView 的数据表明，BTC/USD 在周二达到了 90,530 美元的日内高点，比局部低点 84,000 美元上涨了 6.5%。</p>
<p>多个技术、基本面和市场结构因素的结合表明，比特币在圣诞节期间可能会突破。</p>
<h3><strong>比特币的状态评分转为正面</strong></h3>
<p>交易者预期圣诞反弹的一个关键原因是比特币衍生品市场的看涨优势。最近的分析显示，期权和期货的结构为多头提供了 “战术优势”，尤其是在空头头寸面临越来越大的压力时。</p>
<p>随着 12 月 26 日即将到来的大规模期权到期，交易商正在对聚集在 100,000 至 118,000 美元之间的大量看涨期权进行对冲，实际上将价格暂时固定在一个狭窄的范围内。</p>
<p>CoinGlass 的比特币清算热图显示，买入订单一直延伸到 127,000 美元，暗示价格可能会上涨以收集这些流动性，尤其是在空头挤压的情况下。</p>
<p>这种压制创造了人为的稳定性，但一旦到期过去，波动性可能会因对冲的解除而爆发性上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_01-dec2325-nancy.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_01-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>比特币清算热图。来源：Coinglass</p>
<p>比特币的状态评分目前处于正区间，表明 “看涨中性”，在这种情况下，上行动能占主导地位，CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr 在周一的 X 帖子中表示：</p>
<p>“比特币正进入圣诞反弹的窗口：状态评分看涨但并未过热。”</p>
<p>下图显示，比特币的状态评分为 16.3%，将 BTC/USD 对置于上中性区，这是一个历史上看涨的信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_02-dec2325-nancy.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_02-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>比特币状态评分。来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这一指标反映了一个市场环境，其中短期清算超过多头，为反弹创造了 “战术燃料”。</p>
<p>在过去一周，比特币从接近 84,000 美元的低点上涨了 6.5%，主要是由于空头的连锁清算放大了价格涨幅。市场参与者指出，如果现货价格保持在 90,000 美元以上，这种动态可能会加速，迫使更多空头平仓，推动价格向六位数迈进。</p>
<p>假期流动性减少加剧了这一点，因为参与者减少意味着当情绪转变时会出现更剧烈的波动。如果多头保持控制，这可能标志着圣诞后反弹的开始，回报那些避免过度杠杆下注的耐心投资者。</p>
<h3><strong>黄金和白银创下新高，比特币会跟随吗？</strong></h3>
<p>比特币在假期期间实现突破的能力源于传统避险资产的爆炸性表现。黄金和白银在 2025 年结束前又一次打破了记录，周二黄金达到每盎司 4,497 美元的历史新高，白银在地缘政治紧张局势和美国降息的背景下上涨超过 3%，达到每盎司 70 美元。</p>
<p>仅黄金今年就上涨了 65%，受到货币贬值担忧和中央银行购买的推动，而白银在 2025 年上涨了 150%。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_03-dec2325-nancy.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_03-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>黄金与白银 2025 年价格表现。来源：TradingView</p>
<p>比特币，常被称为 “数字黄金”，有望迎头赶上。分析师认为，从被高估的金属转向加密货币的资本轮换可能会点燃反弹，尤其是在比特币近期表现不佳，从 10 月创下的 126,000 美元历史高点下跌了 30%。</p>
<p>由于相似的驱动因素——法币贬值、通胀对冲和机构需求——交易者认为比特币将受益于相同的宏观顺风。</p>
<p>例如，随着假期前股票上涨，风险偏好流动可能会流入比特币，类似于黄金的路径。Reddit 等平台上的社区情绪对此表示赞同，预测比特币将在金属狂热后反弹。如果机构的假期再平衡加剧这一转变，100,000 美元可能只是个开始，将比特币与推动黄金在 2025 年主导地位的贬值交易对齐。</p>
<h3><strong>比特币的对称三角形目标为 105,000 美元</strong></h3>
<p>从技术角度来看，比特币的图表模式支持圣诞反弹的叙述。BTC/USD 对在日线图上形成了一个对称三角形，这是一种特征为收敛趋势线的图表模式，具有较低的高点和较高的低点。这种整合模式，通常在牛市中是一个持续信号，表明如果接近 90,500 美元的阻力位被突破，可能会目标 105,000 美元。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_04-dec2325-nancy.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_04-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>BTC/USD 日线图。来源：TradingView</p>
<p>交易者预计假期期间交易量减少将进一步压缩三角形，导致圣诞后出现波动性解决。</p>
<p>当前在 85,000 美元的支撑位与强劲的需求区相符，提供了一个底部。Glassnode 的成本基础分布热图强化了这一水平的重要性，投资者在此处购买了约 976,000 个比特币。</p>
<p>保持在这一水平之上是重新获得向 100,000 美元或更高价格迈进的关键前提。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_05-dec2325-nancy.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_05-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>比特币：成本基础分布热图。来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>如果相对强弱指数（RSI）攀升至正区间，价格可能延伸至 110,000–120,000 美元，正如近期反弹所示。这一设置，加上看涨的链上指标，已使分析师警告空头可能面临潜在的短期挤压。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>比特币与以太坊的波动性：美联储是年终反弹的唯一希望吗？</p>
<p>比特币恢复目标为 133,000 美元的新历史高点，因美联储降息概率达到 87%。</p>
<p>BTCUSD 预测：在 ‘Uptober’ 中，比特币在突破 125,000 美元的新历史高点后会涨到多高？</p>

BLSH

<p>比特币交易者对潜在的 “圣诞反弹” 持乐观态度，这可能会将加密货币推高至超过 100,000 美元。目前比特币价格为 90,000 美元，牛市衍生品市场和技术图形暗示可能会出现突破。影响因素包括流动性减少、机构再平衡和季节性情绪。分析师预测，比特币可能会跟随黄金和白银的历史高点，形成一个对称三角形图形，目标为 105,000 美元。保持在 85,000 美元以上对向 100,000 美元或更高的动能至关重要</p>

<p>As the holiday season heats up, Bitcoin traders are buzzing with optimism about a potential &#34;Santa Rally&#34;— a festive surge that could propel the cryptocurrency beyond $100,000. Currently hovering around $90,000 after a period of consolidation, Bitcoin has shown resilience amid broader market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着假日季节的临近，比特币交易者对潜在的 “圣诞反弹” 充满乐观——这一节日性的上涨可能会将加密货币推升至超过 100,000 美元。目前，比特币在经历了一段整合后徘徊在 90,000 美元左右，尽管市场波动加剧，但其表现出韧性。</p>
</div><p>“Santa Rally” often seen in traditional markets during year-end, involves reduced liquidity, institutional rebalancing, and seasonal sentiment driving prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“圣诞反弹” 通常出现在传统市场的年末，涉及流动性减少、机构再平衡和季节性情绪推动价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>Data from CoinMarketCap and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting an intra-day high of $90,530 on Tuesday, up 6.5% from a local low of $84,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 CoinMarketCap 和 TradingView 的数据表明，BTC/USD 在周二达到了 90,530 美元的日内高点，比局部低点 84,000 美元上涨了 6.5%。</p>
</div><p>Several technical, fundamental, and market structure factors align to suggest Bitcoin’s breakout over Christmas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多个技术、基本面和市场结构因素的结合表明，比特币在圣诞节期间可能会突破。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Bitcoin’s Regime Score Flips Positive</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>比特币的状态评分转为正面</strong></h3>
</div><p>One key reason traders anticipate a Santa Rally is the bullish edge in Bitcoin's derivatives market. Recent analysis shows the structure of options and futures providing a &#34;tactical advantage&#34; to bulls, particularly as short positions face increasing pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者预期圣诞反弹的一个关键原因是比特币衍生品市场的看涨优势。最近的分析显示，期权和期货的结构为多头提供了 “战术优势”，尤其是在空头头寸面临越来越大的压力时。</p>
</div><p>With a massive options expiry looming on December 26, dealers are hedging large call open interest clustered around $100,000 to $118,000, effectively pinning prices in a narrow range for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 12 月 26 日即将到来的大规模期权到期，交易商正在对聚集在 100,000 至 118,000 美元之间的大量看涨期权进行对冲，实际上将价格暂时固定在一个狭窄的范围内。</p>
</div><p>The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap from CoinGlass shows bid orders sitting all the way to $127,000, suggesting that the price could rise to collect this liquidity amid a short squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoinGlass 的比特币清算热图显示，买入订单一直延伸到 127,000 美元，暗示价格可能会上涨以收集这些流动性，尤其是在空头挤压的情况下。</p>
</div><p>This suppression creates artificial stability, but once the expiry passes, volatility could explode upward as hedges unwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种压制创造了人为的稳定性，但一旦到期过去，波动性可能会因对冲的解除而爆发性上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_01-dec2325-nancy.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_01-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币清算热图。来源：Coinglass</p>
</div><p>Adding fuel is Bitcoin's regime score, currently at in the positive zone, signaling &#34;bullish neutrality&#34; where upside momentum dominates, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, who said in a Monday X post:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的状态评分目前处于正区间，表明 “看涨中性”，在这种情况下，上行动能占主导地位，CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr 在周一的 X 帖子中表示：</p>
</div><p>“BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“比特币正进入圣诞反弹的窗口：状态评分看涨但并未过热。”</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s regime score is at 16.3%, placing the BTC/USD pair in the upper neutral zone, a historically bullish signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示，比特币的状态评分为 16.3%，将 BTC/USD 对置于上中性区，这是一个历史上看涨的信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_02-dec2325-nancy.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_02-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin regime score. Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币状态评分。来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>This metric reflects a market environment where short liquidations outpace longs, creating &#34;tactical fuel&#34; for rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一指标反映了一个市场环境，其中短期清算超过多头，为反弹创造了 “战术燃料”。</p>
</div><p>Over the past week, Bitcoin climbed 6.5% from lows near $84,000, driven largely by cascading short closures that amplify price gains. Market participants note that this dynamic could accelerate if spot prices hold above $90,000, forcing more shorts to cover and pushing toward six figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，比特币从接近 84,000 美元的低点上涨了 6.5%，主要是由于空头的连锁清算放大了价格涨幅。市场参与者指出，如果现货价格保持在 90,000 美元以上，这种动态可能会加速，迫使更多空头平仓，推动价格向六位数迈进。</p>
</div><p>Holiday thinned liquidity exacerbates this, as fewer participants mean sharper moves when sentiment shifts. If bulls maintain control, this could mark the start of a post-Christmas surge, rewarding patient investors who avoided over-leveraged bets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假期流动性减少加剧了这一点，因为参与者减少意味着当情绪转变时会出现更剧烈的波动。如果多头保持控制，这可能标志着圣诞后反弹的开始，回报那些避免过度杠杆下注的耐心投资者。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Gold and Silver Hit Record High, Bitcoin to Follow?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>黄金和白银创下新高，比特币会跟随吗？</strong></h3>
</div><p>Bitcoin's ability to stage a holiday breakout draws from the explosive performance of traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver have shattered yet other records before the end of 2025, with gold reaching an all-time high of $4,497 per ounce on Tuesday and silver surging over 3% to $70 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions and US rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在假期期间实现突破的能力源于传统避险资产的爆炸性表现。黄金和白银在 2025 年结束前又一次打破了记录，周二黄金达到每盎司 4,497 美元的历史新高，白银在地缘政治紧张局势和美国降息的背景下上涨超过 3%，达到每盎司 70 美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold alone has rallied 65% this year, fueled by currency debasement fears and central bank buying, while silver has increased by 150% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅黄金今年就上涨了 65%，受到货币贬值担忧和中央银行购买的推动，而白银在 2025 年上涨了 150%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_03-dec2325-nancy.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_03-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>Gold vs.Silver 2025 Price Performance. Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金与白银 2025 年价格表现。来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin, often dubbed &#34;digital gold,&#34; is poised to catch up. Analysts argue that capital rotation from overbought metals into crypto could ignite the rally, especially as Bitcoin underperformed recently, down 30% from its all-time high of $126,00 reached in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币，常被称为 “数字黄金”，有望迎头赶上。分析师认为，从被高估的金属转向加密货币的资本轮换可能会点燃反弹，尤其是在比特币近期表现不佳，从 10 月创下的 126,000 美元历史高点下跌了 30%。</p>
</div><p>With similar drivers—fiat erosion, inflation hedges, and institutional demand—traders see Bitcoin benefiting from the same macro tailwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于相似的驱动因素——法币贬值、通胀对冲和机构需求——交易者认为比特币将受益于相同的宏观顺风。</p>
</div><p>For instance, as equities rally pre-holiday, risk-on flows might spill into BTC, mirroring gold's path. Community sentiment on platforms like Reddit echoes this, predicting Bitcoin's turn after metals' frenzy. If holiday rebalancing by institutions amplifies this shift, $100,000 could be just the beginning, aligning Bitcoin with the debasement trade that propelled gold's dominance in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，随着假期前股票上涨，风险偏好流动可能会流入比特币，类似于黄金的路径。Reddit 等平台上的社区情绪对此表示赞同，预测比特币将在金属狂热后反弹。如果机构的假期再平衡加剧这一转变，100,000 美元可能只是个开始，将比特币与推动黄金在 2025 年主导地位的贬值交易对齐。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Bitcoin’s Symmetrical Triangle Targets $105,000 BTC Price</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>比特币的对称三角形目标为 105,000 美元</strong></h3>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's chart patterns bolster the Santa Rally narrative. The BTC/USD pair have formed a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, a chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines with lower highs and higher lows. This consolidation pattern, often a continuation signal in bull markets, suggests a breakout could target $105,000 if resistance near $90,500 gives way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，比特币的图表模式支持圣诞反弹的叙述。BTC/USD 对在日线图上形成了一个对称三角形，这是一种特征为收敛趋势线的图表模式，具有较低的高点和较高的低点。这种整合模式，通常在牛市中是一个持续信号，表明如果接近 90,500 美元的阻力位被突破，可能会目标 105,000 美元。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_04-dec2325-nancy.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_04-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC/USD 日线图。来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Traders anticipate reduced holiday volume compressing the triangle further, leading to a volatile resolution post-Christmas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者预计假期期间交易量减少将进一步压缩三角形，导致圣诞后出现波动性解决。</p>
</div><p>Current support at $85,000 aligns with a strong demand zone, providing a floor. Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap reinforces the importance of this level, where investors acquired about 976,000 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前在 85,000 美元的支撑位与强劲的需求区相符，提供了一个底部。Glassnode 的成本基础分布热图强化了这一水平的重要性，投资者在此处购买了约 976,000 个比特币。</p>
</div><p>Holding above this level is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward $100,000 or higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保持在这一水平之上是重新获得向 100,000 美元或更高价格迈进的关键前提。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_05-dec2325-nancy.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/btc_05-dec2325-nancy.webp"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币：成本基础分布热图。来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>If the relative strength index (RSI) climbs into the positive region, the move could extend to $110,000–$120,000, as seen in recent bounces. This setup, combined with bullish on-chain metrics, has analysts warning bears of a potential short squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果相对强弱指数（RSI）攀升至正区间，价格可能延伸至 110,000–120,000 美元，正如近期反弹所示。这一设置，加上看涨的链上指标，已使分析师警告空头可能面临潜在的短期挤压。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin &amp; Ethereum Volatility: Is The Fed The Only Hope For A Year-End Rally?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币与以太坊的波动性：美联储是年终反弹的唯一希望吗？</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin Recovery Targets New All-Time Highs At $133k As Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 87%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币恢复目标为 133,000 美元的新历史高点，因美联储降息概率达到 87%。</p>
</div><p>BTCUSD Forecast: How High Will Bitcoin Go In ‘Uptober’ After Hitting New All-Time Highs Above $125K?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTCUSD 预测：在 ‘Uptober’ 中，比特币在突破 125,000 美元的新历史高点后会涨到多高？</p>
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比特币的 ‘圣诞行情’ 目标是 10 万美元