<p>尽管自十月初以来，加密货币市场一直在挣扎，但历史表明，长期对该行业前景持悲观态度通常不是一个好主意。加密矿工和能源基础设施专家 <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) 似乎正在表达这一观点，周二股价上涨超过 5%。尽管如此，即使有了大幅上涨，HUT 股票仍可能有额外的收益可供挖掘。</p>
<p>从基本面来看，看涨的投资者可以对数字资产市场潜在的反弹感到振奋。尽管我们没有看到通常特征的加密货币反弹的显著上升，但技术分析师会认为多个基准资产已经找到了支撑位。考虑到最近几个月价值的严重下跌，即使是稳定也是区块链支持者乐于接受的好消息。</p>
<p>在期权订单流方面，交易者预计 HUT 股票在接下来的几周内会有大幅波动。我们怎么知道这一点？多个资源报告称，1 月 16 日的月度期权链的 “预期波动” 约为 18.8%，无论哪个方向。根据当前市场价格，这意味着价格区间在 $43.04 到 $62.96 之间。</p>
<p>如你所想，2 月份的到期日期甚至更糟，预期波动超过 20%。根据每个来源计算其预测的方式，范围可能在 $35 到 $65 之间，甚至更宽。</p>
<p>这些数字并不是迷信，它们是基于使用 Black-Scholes 模型的隐含波动率（IV）构建的。简单来说，IV 就像你站在某个地方时，经过的汽车发出的 “呼啸” 声。</p>
<p>根据风声的强度和音响的持续时间，你可以推测出车辆的速度。但没有额外的上下文，你无法确切知道司机的去向——尤其是在一个大城市中。</p>
<p>不过，通过一点侦探工作，我们将缩小这个极大的波动范围，以帮助平衡风险。</p>
<h2>聚焦 HUT 股票可能的结果范围</h2>
<p>在谈论 IV 和其他与期权相关的波动性指标时，了解这些统计数据是最终源于实际订单流的残余指标是很有用的。换句话说，当 IV 大幅上升时，表明交易者正在对潜在事件进行投机和对冲。</p>
<p>但让我们坦诚相待。如果我告诉你 HUT 股票——再次强调，它是一家加密矿工——将大幅上涨或大幅下跌，你可能会以某种变体回应 “没错”。</p>
<p>我敢说，你们中的大多数人会使用更强烈的语言。然而，关键是你会期待分析提供更多的具体性。这就是为什么我们需要进行层次思考。</p>
<p>假设你拿了一段 HUT 股票价格的单一 10 周数据。显然，这段时间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。但想象一下，你将数百个滚动的 10 周 HUT 股票试验堆叠到一个（固定时间）分布中。在这个框架下，最频繁、一致的行为将产生概率质量的膨胀。</p>
<p>这种膨胀就是风险几何，表明买方情绪的加速。更重要的是，它还显示了买方被诱惑成为卖方的转变。通过这些信息，我们可以统计上知道在哪里可以施压——以及在哪里应该退缩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>使用层次框架，HUT 股票的 10 周回报可以排列成一个分布曲线，结果落在 $47 到 $52 之间（假设锚定价格为 $50.39，即周一的收盘价）。价格聚集可能发生在 $48.80，这表明存在负偏见。</p>
<p>尽管如此，上述评估汇总了自 2019 年 1 月以来的所有试验。我们对当前的定量信号感兴趣，即 5-5-D 序列；也就是说，在截至周一的过去 10 周中，上涨和下跌周的分布是均匀的，但整体呈下降趋势。换句话说，过去两个月的交易净呈看跌。</p>
<p>历史上，长期的悲观情绪往往会引发逆向情绪。在这种情况下，HUT 股票在接下来的 10 周内可能在 $40 到 $80 之间波动，价格聚集可能主要集中在 $53 附近。然而，风险几何中有一些有趣的细微差别值得更仔细的检查。</p>
<h2>针对 Hut 8 的特定交易</h2>
<p>与预期波动计算相关的另一个困难是，波动仅仅是波动。它并没有告诉你哪些数字比其他数字更可能为真。换句话说，基于 Black-Scholes 的隐含波动率计算有效地将 HUT 股票下跌到 $35 的概率与股票上涨到 $65 的概率视为相同（由于公式将概率的概念压缩）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>你不必成为市场天才就能理解这一说法的荒谬。因此，我们并不是仅仅为了绘制酷炫的形状而计算风险几何。不是的，绘制这些形状的基础计算告诉你哪些价格结果在相对基础上更可能发生。</p>
<p>在这一点上，观察每 $10 区间的概率衰减率，最具风险回报平衡的交易围绕 $60 行使价展开。考虑到在 $50 和 $60 之间，概率密度下降了 33.21%。在 $60 和 $70 之间，密度下降了 67.78%。</p>
<p>换句话说，概率在超过 60 美元的价格点后呈指数级加速衰减。因此，通过将我们的回报上限设定为 60 美元，以折扣我们为投机到 60 美元所支付的溢价，我们实际上是在购买最有可能实现的未来结果。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我认为 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 55/60 牛市看涨期权价差是可行的。不仅 HUT 股票在到期时触发 60 美元行权价的机会相当不错，盈亏平衡价位也设定在一个雄心勃勃但可以说是现实的 56.75 美元。</p>
<p>如果投机成功，您将获得近 186% 的回报。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的意见和观点仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文中提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：为什么 New Gold 的期权市场在积极违背合并剧本</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>本文讨论了在加密市场波动中交易 HUT 股票的策略。尽管近期面临挑战，Hut 8 Corp 的股票上涨超过 5%，并有进一步上涨的潜力。交易者预计将出现重大波动，期权显示到 1 月份预期波动为 18.8%，到 2 月份超过 20%。使用分层框架，HUT 股票在接下来的 10 周内可能在 40 美元到 80 美元之间波动，价格集中在 53 美元附近。分析表明，逆向情绪可能推动未来的表现</p>

<p>While the cryptocurrency market has been struggling since early October, as history demonstrates, it's usually not a good idea to stay indefinitely pessimistic on the sector's prospects. Crypto miner and energy infrastructure specialist <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) appears to be articulating this viewpoint, with shares climbing over 5% on Tuesday. Still, even with the big bump, there could be additional gains to be extracted from HUT stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管自十月初以来，加密货币市场一直在挣扎，但历史表明，长期对该行业前景持悲观态度通常不是一个好主意。加密矿工和能源基础设施专家 <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) 似乎正在表达这一观点，周二股价上涨超过 5%。尽管如此，即使有了大幅上涨，HUT 股票仍可能有额外的收益可供挖掘。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, bullish investors can take heart with a potential rebound brewing in the digital asset market. Though we're not seeing the remarkable ascendancy that usually characterizes crypto rallies, technical analysts would argue that multiple benchmark assets have found a floor. Given the severe drop in value in recent months, even stabilization is a piece of good news that blockchain adherents will gladly take.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从基本面来看，看涨的投资者可以对数字资产市场潜在的反弹感到振奋。尽管我们没有看到通常特征的加密货币反弹的显著上升，但技术分析师会认为多个基准资产已经找到了支撑位。考虑到最近几个月价值的严重下跌，即使是稳定也是区块链支持者乐于接受的好消息。</p>
</div><p>On the options order flow front, traders are expecting a massive move over the next several weeks for HUT stock. How do we know this? Multiple resources report that the &#34;expected move&#34; for the January 16 monthly options chain is about 18.8% in either direction. Based on the current market price, that would imply a dispersion between $43.04 and $62.96.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在期权订单流方面，交易者预计 HUT 股票在接下来的几周内会有大幅波动。我们怎么知道这一点？多个资源报告称，1 月 16 日的月度期权链的 “预期波动” 约为 18.8%，无论哪个方向。根据当前市场价格，这意味着价格区间在 $43.04 到 $62.96 之间。</p>
</div><p>As you might imagine, the February-month expiration date is even worse, with an expected move exceeding 20%. Depending on how each individual source calculates their projections, the range could be around $35 to $65 or wider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如你所想，2 月份的到期日期甚至更糟，预期波动超过 20%。根据每个来源计算其预测的方式，范围可能在 $35 到 $65 之间，甚至更宽。</p>
</div><p>These numbers aren't voodoo as they're built from implied volatility (IV) using the Black-Scholes model. Without getting into too many mathematical complexities, IV is very much like the &#34;whoosh&#34; of a passing car relative to where you're standing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字并不是迷信，它们是基于使用 Black-Scholes 模型的隐含波动率（IV）构建的。简单来说，IV 就像你站在某个地方时，经过的汽车发出的 “呼啸” 声。</p>
</div><p>Based on the crack of the wind and the length of the aural resonance, you can infer the velocity of the vehicle. But without additional context, you can't tell where exactly the driver is headed — especially in a major metropolitan area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据风声的强度和音响的持续时间，你可以推测出车辆的速度。但没有额外的上下文，你无法确切知道司机的去向——尤其是在一个大城市中。</p>
</div><p>Still, with a little detective work, we're going to narrow down this wide-as-heck dispersion to help even the odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，通过一点侦探工作，我们将缩小这个极大的波动范围，以帮助平衡风险。</p>
</div><h2>Focusing On The Likely Range Of Outcomes For HUT Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聚焦 HUT 股票可能的结果范围</h2>
</div><p>When talking about IV and other options-related volatility metrics, it's useful to know that these stats are residual metrics ultimately derived from actual order flows. In other words, when IV spikes higher, it indicates that traders are both speculating on and hedging against the underlying event occurring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在谈论 IV 和其他与期权相关的波动性指标时，了解这些统计数据是最终源于实际订单流的残余指标是很有用的。换句话说，当 IV 大幅上升时，表明交易者正在对潜在事件进行投机和对冲。</p>
</div><p>But let's be brutally honest with each other. If I told you that HUT stock — which again is a crypto miner — is going to go up massively or down massively, you would probably respond with some kind of variant of &#34;no kidding.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但让我们坦诚相待。如果我告诉你 HUT 股票——再次强调，它是一家加密矿工——将大幅上涨或大幅下跌，你可能会以某种变体回应 “没错”。</p>
</div><p>I dare say that most of you would use much stronger language than that. Nevertheless, the point is that you would expect a little more specificity from an analysis. That's why we need to think hierarchically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我敢说，你们中的大多数人会使用更强烈的语言。然而，关键是你会期待分析提供更多的具体性。这就是为什么我们需要进行层次思考。</p>
</div><p>Let us suppose that you took a single 10-week strand of HUT stock price data. Obviously, the return during that period won't tell us anything about the probability of performance for the other weeks in the dataset. But imagine that you stacked hundreds of rolling 10-week trials of HUT onto a (fixed-time) distribution. Under this framework, the most frequent, consistent behaviors will yield a bulge in probability mass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设你拿了一段 HUT 股票价格的单一 10 周数据。显然，这段时间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。但想象一下，你将数百个滚动的 10 周 HUT 股票试验堆叠到一个（固定时间）分布中。在这个框架下，最频繁、一致的行为将产生概率质量的膨胀。</p>
</div><p>This bulge is risk geometry, which indicates the acceleration of buyer sentiment. More importantly, it also shows the transition where buyers are tempted to become sellers. With this information, we know statistically where we can push — and where we should back off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种膨胀就是风险几何，表明买方情绪的加速。更重要的是，它还显示了买方被诱惑成为卖方的转变。通过这些信息，我们可以统计上知道在哪里可以施压——以及在哪里应该退缩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>Using a hierarchical framework, the 10-week returns of HUT stock can be arranged as a distributional curve, with outcomes landing between $47 and $52 (assuming an anchor price of $50.39, Monday's close). Price clustering would likely occur at $48.80, which indicates a negative bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用层次框架，HUT 股票的 10 周回报可以排列成一个分布曲线，结果落在 $47 到 $52 之间（假设锚定价格为 $50.39，即周一的收盘价）。价格聚集可能发生在 $48.80，这表明存在负偏见。</p>
</div><p>Still, the above assessment aggregates all trials since January 2019. We're interested in the current quantitative signal, which is the 5-5-D sequence; that is, in the past 10 weeks ending Monday, the up and down week split was even but with an overall downward slope. In other words, the last two months featured net bearish trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，上述评估汇总了自 2019 年 1 月以来的所有试验。我们对当前的定量信号感兴趣，即 5-5-D 序列；也就是说，在截至周一的过去 10 周中，上涨和下跌周的分布是均匀的，但整体呈下降趋势。换句话说，过去两个月的交易净呈看跌。</p>
</div><p>Historically, extended pessimism tends to elicit contrarian sentiment. In this case, HUT stock over the next 10 weeks may range between $40 and $80, with price clustering likely to be predominant at around $53. Nevertheless, there are some interesting nuances in risk geometry that deserve closer inspection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，长期的悲观情绪往往会引发逆向情绪。在这种情况下，HUT 股票在接下来的 10 周内可能在 $40 到 $80 之间波动，价格聚集可能主要集中在 $53 附近。然而，风险几何中有一些有趣的细微差别值得更仔细的检查。</p>
</div><h2>Targeting A Specific Trade For Hut 8</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>针对 Hut 8 的特定交易</h2>
</div><p>One of the other difficulties associated with the expected move calculations is that the dispersion is just that, a dispersion. It doesn't tell you which figures are more likely to be true than the others. In other words, a Black-Scholes-derived calculation of IV effectively weighs the probability of HUT stock dropping to $35 exactly the same as the stock hitting $65 (due to the formulation's collapsing of the concept of probability).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与预期波动计算相关的另一个困难是，波动仅仅是波动。它并没有告诉你哪些数字比其他数字更可能为真。换句话说，基于 Black-Scholes 的隐含波动率计算有效地将 HUT 股票下跌到 $35 的概率与股票上涨到 $65 的概率视为相同（由于公式将概率的概念压缩）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>You don't have to be a market genius to understand the absurdity of that claim. So, we don't calculate risk geometry just so we can draw cool shapes. No, the underlying calculus that draws these shapes tells you which price outcomes are more likely to occur on a relative basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不必成为市场天才就能理解这一说法的荒谬。因此，我们并不是仅仅为了绘制酷炫的形状而计算风险几何。不是的，绘制这些形状的基础计算告诉你哪些价格结果在相对基础上更可能发生。</p>
</div><p>On that note, looking at the rate of probability decay over $10 intervals, the most risk-reward-balanced trade revolve around the $60 strike price. Consider that between $50 and $60, probability density declines by 33.21%. Between $60 and $70, density drops by 67.78%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一点上，观察每 $10 区间的概率衰减率，最具风险回报平衡的交易围绕 $60 行使价展开。考虑到在 $50 和 $60 之间，概率密度下降了 33.21%。在 $60 和 $70 之间，密度下降了 67.78%。</p>
</div><p>Stated differently, probability decay exponentially accelerates beyond the $60 price point. Therefore, by capping our reward at $60 in a bid to discount the premium we'll pay to speculate up to $60, we would effectively be buying the forward outcome that is most likely to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，概率在超过 60 美元的价格点后呈指数级加速衰减。因此，通过将我们的回报上限设定为 60 美元，以折扣我们为投机到 60 美元所支付的溢价，我们实际上是在购买最有可能实现的未来结果。</p>
</div><p>With that said, I believe the 55/60 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026, is in play. Not only is there a decent chance for HUT stock to trigger the $60 strike at expiration, the breakeven price is at an ambitious but arguably realistic $56.75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我认为 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 55/60 牛市看涨期权价差是可行的。不仅 HUT 股票在到期时触发 60 美元行权价的机会相当不错，盈亏平衡价位也设定在一个雄心勃勃但可以说是现实的 56.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>If the speculation pans out, you're looking at a payout of nearly 186%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投机成功，您将获得近 186% 的回报。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的意见和观点仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文中提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
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<li><strong>Options Corner: Why New Gold’s Options Market Is Bullishly Defying The Merger Playbook</strong></li>
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<li><strong>期权角落：为什么 New Gold 的期权市场在积极违背合并剧本</strong></li>
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</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

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