<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></h3>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>菲利普 66（Phillips 66，PSX）是一家领先的下游能源公司，专注于炼油、中游、化学品和市场营销业务。该公司的股价刚刚给技术交易者上了一堂关于趋势线动态的教科书课程。在经历了从六月到十二月初的美丽上升支撑线后，股票发生了一件立即引起经验丰富的分析师注意的事情——它突破了支撑。</p>
<p>让我们来分析一下这里发生了什么，因为这不仅仅是图表上的噪音。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="975" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY"/></p>
<p>自年中以来，PSX 形成了一个稳定的上升趋势，那条黄色支撑趋势线就像是价格行动下方可靠的地板。在夏季和秋季的多个时刻，当卖压出现时，买家总是在那条线附近介入。它的表现完美无缺——直到它没有。在十二月底，PSX 像是突然失去意义一样，切穿了那条支撑线，这对市场两边的交易者来说变得有趣。</p>
<p>该股票目前交易价格约为 129.99 美元，明显低于曾经可靠的支撑。但这就是区分新手图表观察者和经验丰富的技术分析师的地方：那条破裂的趋势线并不会就此消失。它会转变。曾经作为买家跳板的支撑线现在可能成为任何反弹尝试的阻力。在技术分析中，我们称这种现象为极性转变。</p>
<p>这就是 “回撤/空头水平” 注释变得相关的地方。如果 PSX 试图反弹回到 134-136 美元区间——正好在那条以前的趋势线附近——我们很可能看到一个回撤进入新的阻力。对于看空的交易者来说，该区域代表了建立空头头寸的高概率区域，押注于突破将保持，价格继续下行。逻辑很简单：之前的支撑往往会变成新的阻力。</p>
<p>看涨的反驳论点则是，有时突破会失败。如果 PSX 能够重新夺回并坚定地收于 136 美元以上，这将表明趋势线的违规是一个虚假的突破——我们称之为空头陷阱。那种情况可能会触发空头回补和重新的买入兴趣，可能会将股价推回到接近 145 美元的近期高点。</p>
<p>那么这里的操作是什么？对于看空者来说，耐心是关键。在启动空头之前，等待反弹至 134-136 美元，并在 137 美元以上设置止损以限制风险。如果你是看涨者，你需要概念的证明：在考虑做多之前，必须有明确的重新夺回破裂趋势线的成交量确认。</p>
<p>什么会使这一突破情景失效？快速而有力地回到 136 美元以上，并在多个交易日内保持。直到那时，技术偏向将倾向于看空，破裂的趋势线现在充当上方阻力而非下方支撑。能源行业最近一直波动不定，PSX 的图表完美反映了这种不确定性——无论你的方向偏向如何，这都是一个值得密切关注的设置。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>黄金在地缘政治和美联储前景下坚守在纪录高位附近</p>
<p>英镑/美元从十月高位回落，市场消化美国数据</p>
<p>欧元/瑞士法郎滑向一个月低点，地缘政治风险提升瑞士法郎</p>

菲利普66

<p>菲利普 66 (PSX) 已经突破其上升支撑线，显示出潜在的趋势反转。该股票目前交易价格约为 129.99 美元，可能在 134-136 美元区间面临阻力，此前该区间为支撑位。空头将此视为做空机会，而多头则在等待价格明确回升至 136 美元以上，以考虑建立多头头寸。除非 PSX 在多个交易日内突破 136 美元，否则技术偏向仍然看跌</p>

<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
</div><p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>Phillips 66 (PSX) is a leading downstream energy company specializing in refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing operations. The company share price just handed technical traders a textbook lesson in trendline dynamics. After riding a beautifully constructed ascending support line from June through early December, the stock has done something that immediately catches an experienced analyst's attention—it broke down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普 66（Phillips 66，PSX）是一家领先的下游能源公司，专注于炼油、中游、化学品和市场营销业务。该公司的股价刚刚给技术交易者上了一堂关于趋势线动态的教科书课程。在经历了从六月到十二月初的美丽上升支撑线后，股票发生了一件立即引起经验丰富的分析师注意的事情——它突破了支撑。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what's happening here, because this isn't just noise on a chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来分析一下这里发生了什么，因为这不仅仅是图表上的噪音。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY" alt="" original-src="https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.fxsstatic.com%2Fmiscelaneous%2Fimage-1766523798550-1766523798551.png&amp;w=1536&amp;q=95"/></p>
<p>Since mid-year, PSX carved out a steady uptrend, with that yellow support trendline acting like a dependable floor beneath price action. Multiple times throughout the summer and fall, when selling pressure emerged, buyers stepped in right at that line. It worked flawlessly—until it didn't. In late December, PSX sliced through that support like it suddenly ceased to matter, and that's where things get interesting for traders on both sides of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年中以来，PSX 形成了一个稳定的上升趋势，那条黄色支撑趋势线就像是价格行动下方可靠的地板。在夏季和秋季的多个时刻，当卖压出现时，买家总是在那条线附近介入。它的表现完美无缺——直到它没有。在十二月底，PSX 像是突然失去意义一样，切穿了那条支撑线，这对市场两边的交易者来说变得有趣。</p>
</div><p>The stock currently trades around $129.99, clearly below what was once reliable support. But here's what separates novice chart-watchers from seasoned technicians: that broken trendline doesn't just disappear. It transforms. What formerly acted as a springboard for buyers could now function as a ceiling for any rally attempts. In technical analysis, we call this phenomenon a polarity shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票目前交易价格约为 129.99 美元，明显低于曾经可靠的支撑。但这就是区分新手图表观察者和经验丰富的技术分析师的地方：那条破裂的趋势线并不会就此消失。它会转变。曾经作为买家跳板的支撑线现在可能成为任何反弹尝试的阻力。在技术分析中，我们称这种现象为极性转变。</p>
</div><p>This is where the &#34;Retrace / Short Level&#34; annotation becomes relevant. If PSX attempts to rally back toward the $134-136 zone—right around that former trendline—we're likely watching a retracement into fresh resistance. For bearish traders, that area represents a high-probability zone to establish short positions, betting that the breakdown will hold and price continues lower. The logic is simple: previous support often becomes new resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是 “回撤/空头水平” 注释变得相关的地方。如果 PSX 试图反弹回到 134-136 美元区间——正好在那条以前的趋势线附近——我们很可能看到一个回撤进入新的阻力。对于看空的交易者来说，该区域代表了建立空头头寸的高概率区域，押注于突破将保持，价格继续下行。逻辑很简单：之前的支撑往往会变成新的阻力。</p>
</div><p>The bullish counter-argument is simply that sometimes breakdowns fail. If PSX can reclaim and close above $136 with conviction, it would suggest the trendline violation was a false breakdown—what we call a bear trap. That scenario would likely trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest, potentially sending the stock back toward recent highs near $145.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看涨的反驳论点则是，有时突破会失败。如果 PSX 能够重新夺回并坚定地收于 136 美元以上，这将表明趋势线的违规是一个虚假的突破——我们称之为空头陷阱。那种情况可能会触发空头回补和重新的买入兴趣，可能会将股价推回到接近 145 美元的近期高点。</p>
</div><p>So what's the play here? For bears, patience pays. Wait for that bounce toward $134-136 before initiating shorts, with stops above $137 to limit risk if you're wrong. For bulls, you need proof of concept: a decisive reclaim of the broken trendline with volume confirmation before considering long entries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么这里的操作是什么？对于看空者来说，耐心是关键。在启动空头之前，等待反弹至 134-136 美元，并在 137 美元以上设置止损以限制风险。如果你是看涨者，你需要概念的证明：在考虑做多之前，必须有明确的重新夺回破裂趋势线的成交量确认。</p>
</div><p>What would invalidate this breakdown scenario? A quick, powerful move back above $136 that holds for multiple sessions. Until that happens, the technical bias tilts bearish, with the broken trendline now acting as overhead resistance rather than underlying support. The energy sector has been volatile lately, and PSX's chart reflects that uncertainty perfectly—making this a setup worth monitoring closely regardless of your directional bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什么会使这一突破情景失效？快速而有力地回到 136 美元以上，并在多个交易日内保持。直到那时，技术偏向将倾向于看空，破裂的趋势线现在充当上方阻力而非下方支撑。能源行业最近一直波动不定，PSX 的图表完美反映了这种不确定性——无论你的方向偏向如何，这都是一个值得密切关注的设置。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Gold Holds Firm Near Record Highs On Geopolitics And Fed Outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金在地缘政治和美联储前景下坚守在纪录高位附近</p>
</div><p>GBP/USD Eases From October Highs As Markets Digest US Data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/美元从十月高位回落，市场消化美国数据</p>
</div><p>EUR/CHF Slides Toward One-Month Lows As Geopolitical Risks Lift Swiss Franc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/瑞士法郎滑向一个月低点，地缘政治风险提升瑞士法郎</p>
</div>

菲利普 66 突破关键上升趋势：是回撤设置还是反转信号？