<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>中国的牛奶过剩推动了对欧盟乳制品的关税决定</li>
<li>对欧盟乳制品的关税范围为 21.9% 至 42.7%</li>
<li>中国转向更高利润的乳制品，如黄油和奶油</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Daphne Zhang 和 Casey Hall</p>
<p>中国的农民面临牛奶过剩，而北京决定对来自欧盟的乳制品征收关税，预计将为他们提供一定的保护，使他们能够拓展到更高利润的产品，如奶油和黄油。</p>
<p>&#34;该国的牛奶过剩在政府决定征收关税中起了重要作用……过去四年，中国的乳制品行业一直在亏损，整个行业都在流血，&#34; StoneX 的 Dairy Asia 负责人李逸凡表示。</p>
<p>他补充说，随着经济疲软对国家财政的影响，中国的政府补贴在 2025 年减少。</p>
<p>对来自欧盟的无糖牛奶、奶油以及新鲜和加工奶酪的进口关税于周二开始，范围为 21.9% 至 42.7%，这是自该地区对中国电动车征收关税以来一系列报复措施中的最新举措。</p>
<p>中国最近在对白兰地和猪肉进行反倾销调查后，显著降低了来自欧盟的猪肉临时关税。</p>
<p>乳制品行业趋势促使转变</p>
<p>中国是全球第三大牛奶生产国，去年的牛奶产量从 2017 年的 3039 万吨激增至超过 4000 万吨。同时，由于出生率下降，消费量在 2024 年降至每人 12.6 公斤，低于 2021 年的 14.4 公斤。近年来，价格一直处于或低于每公斤约 3.02 元（0.4298 美元）的平均生产成本，导致许多亏损的农场关闭或出售奶牛用于肉类。</p>
<p>北京东方农业咨询公司的乳制品分析师连亚兵表示，中国超过 90% 的乳制品农民没有盈利。</p>
<p>&#34;关税决定无疑是像伊利和蒙牛这样的顶级乳制品生产商的机会，他们今年正在加大黄油、奶油和奶酪的生产，&#34;连亚兵说。</p>
<p>李逸凡表示，中国的牛奶过剩和消费者对乳制品需求的变化，促使国内供应商在过去一年中生产更高利润的产品，从而减少对进口的依赖。</p>
<p>&#34;几年前，只有少数顶级乳制品生产商在生产奶油和黄油，现在至少有 40 家，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>奶油比黄油更易加工，受益于中国奶茶热潮，像喜茶和茶颜悦色这样的连锁店在其现成饮品中使用该产品。</p>
<p>来自云南南部的有机乳制品农民韩表示，他是一个小众市场的生产者，生产少量欧洲风格的奶酪，如蓝纹奶酪和布里奶酪。他说，传统西方奶酪的需求最近超过了供应。</p>
<p>&#34;对于中国少数优质奶酪生产商来说，影响微乎其微，因为生产量太小，&#34;他说。&#34;但这可以表明政府正在制定这一关税政策以保护国内乳制品行业。&#34;</p>
<p>有针对性的关税制度</p>
<p>分析师表示，北京利用关税来表达对贸易伙伴及其公司的不满。荷兰乳制品巨头 FrieslandCampina 面临最高 42.7% 的关税，而包括丹麦的 Arla Foods 在内的约 60 家公司将支付不到 30% 的关税。荷兰和丹麦都支持对中国电动车提高关税，法国、爱尔兰和意大利等主要乳制品生产国也投票支持。</p>
<p>荷兰在 9 月份因治理问题扣押了芯片制造商 Nexperia，激怒了中国，这引发了汽车行业的全球芯片短缺。</p>
<p>这一争端尚未解决，中国母公司与荷兰子公司正在争夺对 Nexperia 的控制权。</p>
<p>上周对欧盟猪肉进口的关税降低是西班牙的胜利，西班牙采取了亲北京的立场以吸引新的投资，过去一年中，首相佩德罗·桑切斯和国王费利佩六世进行了国事访问。</p>
<p>（1 美元 = 7.0258 人民币）</p>

伊利股份

<p>中国对欧盟乳制品进口征收 21.9% 至 42.7% 的关税，以保护国内产业，因应牛奶过剩和消费者需求变化。这一举措是在欧盟对中国电动车征收关税之后采取的，反映了中国通过关税表达对贸易伙伴不满的战略。此决定有利于中国顶级乳制品生产商如伊利和蒙牛，他们正转向更高利润的产品，如黄油和奶油</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>China's milk surplus drives tariff decision on EU dairy products</li>
<li>Tariffs range from 21.9% to 42.7% on EU dairy imports</li>
<li>China shifts to higher-margin dairy products like butter, cream</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国的牛奶过剩推动了对欧盟乳制品的关税决定</li>
<li>对欧盟乳制品的关税范围为 21.9% 至 42.7%</li>
<li>中国转向更高利润的乳制品，如黄油和奶油</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Daphne Zhang and Casey Hall</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Daphne Zhang 和 Casey Hall</p>
</div><p>China's farmers are up to their ears in milk and Beijing's decision to apply tariffs on dairy imports from the European Union is expected to give them a measure of protection as they branch out into higher-margin products like cream and butter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的农民面临牛奶过剩，而北京决定对来自欧盟的乳制品征收关税，预计将为他们提供一定的保护，使他们能够拓展到更高利润的产品，如奶油和黄油。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The country's milk oversupply plays a significant role in the government's decision to impose tariffs ... the whole Chinese dairy industry has been losing profits in the last four years, the industry has been bleeding,&#34; said Yifan Li, head of Dairy Asia at StoneX, a commodity-focused financial services firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;该国的牛奶过剩在政府决定征收关税中起了重要作用……过去四年，中国的乳制品行业一直在亏损，整个行业都在流血，&#34; StoneX 的 Dairy Asia 负责人李逸凡表示。</p>
</div><p>He added that government subsidies in China decreased in 2025 as a sluggish economy weighed on state finances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，随着经济疲软对国家财政的影响，中国的政府补贴在 2025 年减少。</p>
</div><p>The higher duties on imports of unsweetened milk and cream and fresh and processed cheeses from the EU, which kicked off on Tuesday and range from 21.9% to 42.7% , were the latest move in a series of tit-for-tat measures since the bloc applied tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对来自欧盟的无糖牛奶、奶油以及新鲜和加工奶酪的进口关税于周二开始，范围为 21.9% 至 42.7%，这是自该地区对中国电动车征收关税以来一系列报复措施中的最新举措。</p>
</div><p>China has recently significantly lowered provisional tariffs on pork from the EU following anti-dumping investigations on brandy and pork.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国最近在对白兰地和猪肉进行反倾销调查后，显著降低了来自欧盟的猪肉临时关税。</p>
</div><p>MILK INDUSTRY TRENDS PROMPT SHIFT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乳制品行业趋势促使转变</p>
</div><p>Milk output in China, the world's third-largest producer, surged to more than 40 million tons last year from 30.39 million tons in 2017. At the same time, consumption fell to 12.6 kg per person in 2024 from 14.4 kg in 2021, hurt by the nation's falling birthrate. Prices in recent years have sat at or below average production costs of around 3.02 yuan ($0.4298) per kg, causing many loss-making farms to shut down or sell cows for beef.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国是全球第三大牛奶生产国，去年的牛奶产量从 2017 年的 3039 万吨激增至超过 4000 万吨。同时，由于出生率下降，消费量在 2024 年降至每人 12.6 公斤，低于 2021 年的 14.4 公斤。近年来，价格一直处于或低于每公斤约 3.02 元（0.4298 美元）的平均生产成本，导致许多亏损的农场关闭或出售奶牛用于肉类。</p>
</div><p>Lian Yabing, a dairy analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants, said over 90% of China's dairy farmers were not making a profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京东方农业咨询公司的乳制品分析师连亚兵表示，中国超过 90% 的乳制品农民没有盈利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The tariff decision is definitely an opportunity for top dairy producers like Yili and Mengniu, which are stepping up butter, cream and cheese production this year,&#34; Lian said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;关税决定无疑是像伊利和蒙牛这样的顶级乳制品生产商的机会，他们今年正在加大黄油、奶油和奶酪的生产，&#34;连亚兵说。</p>
</div><p>China's milk glut and changing consumer dairy demands have pushed the country's suppliers to make higher-margin products over the past year, Li said, making it less reliant on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李逸凡表示，中国的牛奶过剩和消费者对乳制品需求的变化，促使国内供应商在过去一年中生产更高利润的产品，从而减少对进口的依赖。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A few years ago, only a handful of top dairy producers were making cream and butter, now there are at least 40,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;几年前，只有少数顶级乳制品生产商在生产奶油和黄油，现在至少有 40 家，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>Cream, which is easier to process than butter, has received a boost from the milk tea boom in China, with chains like Heytea and Chagee  using the product in their ready-made drinks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奶油比黄油更易加工，受益于中国奶茶热潮，像喜茶和茶颜悦色这样的连锁店在其现成饮品中使用该产品。</p>
</div><p>Han, an organic dairy farmer in southern Yunnan province, said he was part of a niche market of producers making small amounts of European-style (changed French to European, he also makes swiss cheeses) cheeses like blue cheese and brie. He said demand has lately outstripped supply for traditional Western cheeses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自云南南部的有机乳制品农民韩表示，他是一个小众市场的生产者，生产少量欧洲风格的奶酪，如蓝纹奶酪和布里奶酪。他说，传统西方奶酪的需求最近超过了供应。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For the few premium cheese producers in China, the impact is minimal because the production volume is too small,&#34; he said. &#34;But this can be a signal that the government is formulating this tariff policy to protect its own domestic dairy industry.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对于中国少数优质奶酪生产商来说，影响微乎其微，因为生产量太小，&#34;他说。&#34;但这可以表明政府正在制定这一关税政策以保护国内乳制品行业。&#34;</p>
</div><p>A TARGETED TARIFF REGIME</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有针对性的关税制度</p>
</div><p>Analysts say Beijing uses tariffs to register its displeasure with trading partners and their companies. Dutch dairy conglomerate FrieslandCampina faces the highest rate of 42.7%，while around 60 companies including Denmark's Arla Foods (ARLAF.UL) will pay just under 30%. The Netherlands and Denmark both voted in favour of increased tariffs on Chinese EVs along with major dairy producers France, Ireland and Italy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，北京利用关税来表达对贸易伙伴及其公司的不满。荷兰乳制品巨头 FrieslandCampina 面临最高 42.7% 的关税，而包括丹麦的 Arla Foods 在内的约 60 家公司将支付不到 30% 的关税。荷兰和丹麦都支持对中国电动车提高关税，法国、爱尔兰和意大利等主要乳制品生产国也投票支持。</p>
</div><p>The Netherlands also angered China in September after it seized chipmaker Nexperia from its Chinese parent company, Wingtech, citing governance issues, which triggered temporary global chip shortages in the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>荷兰在 9 月份因治理问题扣押了芯片制造商 Nexperia，激怒了中国，这引发了汽车行业的全球芯片短缺。</p>
</div><p>The dispute has not been resolved, with the Chinese parent and a Dutch unit engaged in a struggle for control over Nexperia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一争端尚未解决，中国母公司与荷兰子公司正在争夺对 Nexperia 的控制权。</p>
</div><p>Last week's reduced tariffs on EU pork imports were a win for Spain, which has adopted a pro-Beijing stance to court fresh investment, with state visits from Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and King Felipe VI in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周对欧盟猪肉进口的关税降低是西班牙的胜利，西班牙采取了亲北京的立场以吸引新的投资，过去一年中，首相佩德罗·桑切斯和国王费利佩六世进行了国事访问。</p>
</div><p>($1 = 7.0258 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（1 美元 = 7.0258 人民币）</p>
</div>

中国对欧盟乳制品征收关税旨在帮助陷入困境的国内产业，同时向国际传递信号