<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>股票和货币各上涨 0.3%</li>
<li>股票基准有望创下自 2009 年以来最佳年度</li>
<li>分析师称委内瑞拉的希望被夸大</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
<p>拉丁美洲股票在周三上涨，阿根廷在交易量稀少的情况下领涨，使该地区有望实现自 2009 年以来的最佳年度。</p>
<p>MSCI 股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）上涨 0.3%，而阿根廷的 Merval 指数上涨 0.6%。</p>
<p>巴西的股市关闭，而阿根廷、秘鲁和智利的交易所计划提前收盘。区域市场将在 12 月 25 日因圣诞假期关闭。</p>
<p>墨西哥股市下跌 0.5%，此前国家统计局表示 11 月季调后的失业率为 2.7%。</p>
<p>由于缺乏其他催化剂，投资者重新审视现有数据，并从美联储的动向中获取线索，预计明年将降低利率。</p>
<p>此类降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力，并提升对新兴市场高收益替代品的需求。</p>
<p>MSCI 的货币指数（.MILA00000CUS）上涨 0.3%，哥伦比亚比索对美元上涨 0.8%。</p>
<p>新兴市场在 2025 年闪耀</p>
<p>拉丁美洲今年已成为更广泛的新兴市场中的亮点，投资者希望增加对该地区的投资。</p>
<p>加强公共财政的努力有助于增强信心，尤其是在贸易政策不确定性削弱发达市场吸引力的时刻。</p>
<p>截至周二收盘，MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指数今年已上涨 46%，有望创下自 2009 年以来的最佳年度。</p>
<p>然而，国内政治可能会带来障碍，尤其是该地区多个国家即将举行选举。</p>
<p>最近几周，投资者不得不应对美国与委内瑞拉之间日益紧张的局势。</p>
<p>一些人试图在动荡中寻找机会。对美国对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗施加压力可能为政治变革和委内瑞拉债务重组铺平道路的押注，导致该国债券的反弹，2025 年在指数层面回报约为 100%。</p>
<p>然而，分析师警告称，这种乐观可能为时已晚。</p>
<p>“我们认为，任何对迅速、干净、对投资者友好的政权更替的希望都是被夸大的。马杜罗的下台并不保证向一个更民主和对投资者友好的政府的平稳有序过渡，” Tellimer Research 的首席经济学家兼全球固定收益研究负责人 Stuart Culverhouse 表示。</p>
<p>主要拉丁美洲股票指数和货币：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新兴市场 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉丁美洲 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚 COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚比索</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘鲁索尔</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

明晟

<p>拉丁美洲股市上涨，以阿根廷为首，MSCI 指数上涨 0.3%，阿根廷的 Merval 指数上涨 0.6%。该地区有望迎来自 2009 年以来的最佳年度。尽管一些市场提前收盘，投资者仍对美国可能降息持乐观态度。然而，委内瑞拉的政治局势仍然令人担忧。MSCI 拉丁美洲指数今年上涨了 46%，但国内政治可能会影响未来的表现</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Stocks and currencies up 0.3% each</li>
<li>Equity benchmark set for best year since 2009</li>
<li>Venezuela hopes overdone, analyst says</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票和货币各上涨 0.3%</li>
<li>股票基准有望创下自 2009 年以来最佳年度</li>
<li>分析师称委内瑞拉的希望被夸大</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Niket Nishant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
</div><p>Latin American stocks climbed on Wednesday, with Argentina leading gains during a thinly traded session and keeping the region on course for its best year since 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲股票在周三上涨，阿根廷在交易量稀少的情况下领涨，使该地区有望实现自 2009 年以来的最佳年度。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI index of equities (.MILA00000PUS) rose 0.3%, while Argentina's Merval index  gained 0.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）上涨 0.3%，而阿根廷的 Merval 指数上涨 0.6%。</p>
</div><p>Brazil's equity market was shut, while bourses in Argentina, Peru and Chile were scheduled to close early. Regional markets will be closed on December 25 for the Christmas holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西的股市关闭，而阿根廷、秘鲁和智利的交易所计划提前收盘。区域市场将在 12 月 25 日因圣诞假期关闭。</p>
</div><p>Mexican equities  were down 0.5%, after the national statistics agency said that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 2.7% in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥股市下跌 0.5%，此前国家统计局表示 11 月季调后的失业率为 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>With few other catalysts, investors revisited existing data and took their cue from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于缺乏其他催化剂，投资者重新审视现有数据，并从美联储的动向中获取线索，预计明年将降低利率。</p>
</div><p>Such rate reductions typically weaken the appeal of the U.S. dollar and boost demand for higher-yielding alternatives in emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此类降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力，并提升对新兴市场高收益替代品的需求。</p>
</div><p>MSCI's currency gauge (.MILA00000CUS) was up 0.3%, with the Colombian peso  up 0.8% against the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 的货币指数（.MILA00000CUS）上涨 0.3%，哥伦比亚比索对美元上涨 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>EMERGING MARKETS SHINE IN 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场在 2025 年闪耀</p>
</div><p>Latin America has emerged as a bright spot in the broader emerging market universe this year, with investors looking to add exposure to the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲今年已成为更广泛的新兴市场中的亮点，投资者希望增加对该地区的投资。</p>
</div><p>Efforts to shore up public finances have helped bolster confidence, particularly at a time when trade policy uncertainty has eroded the appeal of developed markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加强公共财政的努力有助于增强信心，尤其是在贸易政策不确定性削弱发达市场吸引力的时刻。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI index of Latin American stocks has gained 46% so far this year, as of Tuesday's close, which puts it on pace for its best year since 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周二收盘，MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指数今年已上涨 46%，有望创下自 2009 年以来的最佳年度。</p>
</div><p>However, domestic politics could throw a spanner in the works, especially as several countries in the region head toward elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，国内政治可能会带来障碍，尤其是该地区多个国家即将举行选举。</p>
</div><p>In recent weeks, investors have had to contend with increasing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几周，投资者不得不应对美国与委内瑞拉之间日益紧张的局势。</p>
</div><p>Some have tried to find opportunity amid the turmoil. Bets that increasing U.S. pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro could pave the way for political change and a restructuring of Venezuela's debt have led to a rally in the country's bonds, which have returned roughly 100% at the index level in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人试图在动荡中寻找机会。对美国对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗施加压力可能为政治变革和委内瑞拉债务重组铺平道路的押注，导致该国债券的反弹，2025 年在指数层面回报约为 100%。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts cautioned that the optimism may be premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析师警告称，这种乐观可能为时已晚。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We think any hopes of a swift and clean, investor-friendly regime change are overdone. The ousting of Maduro doesn’t guarantee a smooth and orderly transition to a more democratic and investor-friendly government,&#34; said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist and global head of fixed income research at Tellimer Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为，任何对迅速、干净、对投资者友好的政权更替的希望都是被夸大的。马杜罗的下台并不保证向一个更民主和对投资者友好的政府的平稳有序过渡，” Tellimer Research 的首席经济学家兼全球固定收益研究负责人 Stuart Culverhouse 表示。</p>
</div><p>Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要拉丁美洲股票指数和货币：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Equities</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI Emerging Markets CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Currencies</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico peso</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile peso</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia peso</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Peru sol</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新兴市场 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉丁美洲 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚 COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚比索</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘鲁索尔</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

拉美股市在平稳的交易中小幅上涨，阿根廷领涨