<p>金属市场在黄金（GC=F）和白银（SI=F）价格近期飙升的推动下，迎来了创纪录的一年，但还有第三种金属也创下了自己的历史新高。铜价今年上涨超过 35%，有望实现自 2009 年以来最大的年度涨幅，主要受到科技需求上升、供应限制和关税不确定性的推动。</p>
<p>全球铜（HG=F）价格在周二首次在伦敦金属交易所正式突破每吨 12,000 美元，并在周三继续上涨。</p>
<p>每种金属对经济条件的反应略有不同，铜也不例外。然而，与黄金和白银不同，铜并不直接受到投资者情绪或经济预期的影响。其价格波动通常可以归因于实际的增长和扩张。</p>
<p>铜常被视为经济的晴雨表。它在电网、建筑、工业机械等方面发挥着核心作用。当这些商品或服务的需求上升时，通常是经济健康的良好迹象——这也赋予了铜 “铜博士” 的昵称。</p>
<p>根据高盛研究，铜价上涨通常预示着强劲的工业需求和快速增长的经济，而价格下跌可能表明经济放缓。高盛研究分析师 Eoin Dinsmore 在一份报告中写道，铜是 “全球电网和电力基础设施投资的主要受益者，因为人工智能和国防加大了对强大和安全能源网络的需求。”</p>
<p>黄金被视为一种 “避险” 资产和对抗通胀的工具。白银则介于黄金和铜之间，既有投资用途也有工业用途。然而，铜主要是工业用途。它通常不是像黄金或白银那样被购买以储存，而是用于实际生产，这也是为什么在这三种金属中，铜通常是经济向好最强的指标。</p>
<p><em>阅读更多：</em> <em>为什么白银表现优于黄金？在投资之前需要了解什么。</em></p>
<h2>什么推动了铜价的上涨？</h2>
<p>铜价目前上涨的原因有几个。主要的铜生产地区如智利和印度尼西亚面临供应挑战和环境灾难，这导致全球铜短缺和市场紧张。</p>
<p>“在预计今年矿山供应增长基本持平后，我们对 2026 年矿山供应增长的预估已降至仅约 +1.4%，比年初的预估低约 50 万吨，” 摩根大通基础和贵金属战略负责人 Gregory Shearer 在一份声明中表示。</p>
<p>供应下降并不是推动价格上涨的唯一因素。今年 7 月，特朗普政府对几类铜进口征收关税，给市场带来了额外压力。同时，人工智能领域的重投资显著提升了需求，因为数据中心对铜的依赖性很高。</p>
<p>有一个来源估计，超大规模的人工智能数据中心每个设施可以使用多达 50,000 吨铜。</p>
<h2>铜的未来如何？</h2>
<p>至于价格的走向，摩根大通全球研究预计铜价将在 2026 年第二季度达到每吨 12,500 美元，全年平均约为每吨 12,075 美元。</p>
<p>尽管研究人员对铜价将继续上涨持乐观态度，但专家表示，近期价格飙升的长期影响仍然不确定。</p>
<p>“2025 年 7 月关税与铜价的交汇点突显了全球贸易和商品市场的复杂动态，” Halbert Hargrove 的 CFP 和投资组合管理主任 David Koch 表示。“虽然短期内铜价急剧上涨，但长期后果将取决于市场、政府和行业如何适应这一新的贸易环境。”</p>
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摩根大通

<p>铜价今年上涨超过 35%，主要受到供应短缺、全球需求和关税不确定性的推动。铜被称为 “铜博士”，是一个重要的经济指标，预示着强劲的工业需求和经济增长。主要铜生产地区的供应挑战和关税使市场更加紧张。摩根大通预计到 2026 年铜价将达到每吨 12,500 美元。价格飙升的长期影响仍然不确定，受到全球贸易动态和行业适应的影响</p>

<p>Metals have had a record year with recent surges in gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) prices, but there’s a third metal hitting its own record highs. Copper prices have rallied by more than 35% this year, poised for the biggest annual gain since 2009, driven higher by rising tech demand, supply constraints, and tariff uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金属市场在黄金（GC=F）和白银（SI=F）价格近期飙升的推动下，迎来了创纪录的一年，但还有第三种金属也创下了自己的历史新高。铜价今年上涨超过 35%，有望实现自 2009 年以来最大的年度涨幅，主要受到科技需求上升、供应限制和关税不确定性的推动。</p>
</div><p>Global copper (HG=F) prices officially surpassed $12,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday for the first time ever and continued to march higher on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球铜（HG=F）价格在周二首次在伦敦金属交易所正式突破每吨 12,000 美元，并在周三继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>Each type of metal reacts slightly differently to economic conditions, and copper is no exception. However, unlike gold and silver, copper isn’t so directly influenced by investor sentiment or economic expectations. Its price movements can typically be attributed to physical growth and expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每种金属对经济条件的反应略有不同，铜也不例外。然而，与黄金和白银不同，铜并不直接受到投资者情绪或经济预期的影响。其价格波动通常可以归因于实际的增长和扩张。</p>
</div><p>Copper is often viewed as a barometer for the economy. It plays a central role in power grids, construction, industrial machinery, and more. When there’s a demand for those types of goods or services, it’s typically a good sign that the economy has a clean bill of health — giving copper its nickname: Doctor Copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜常被视为经济的晴雨表。它在电网、建筑、工业机械等方面发挥着核心作用。当这些商品或服务的需求上升时，通常是经济健康的良好迹象——这也赋予了铜 “铜博士” 的昵称。</p>
</div><p>Rising copper prices often signal strong industrial demand and a rapidly growing economy, while falling prices may indicate an economic slowdown, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Copper is “a major beneficiary of investments in grid and power infrastructure globally, as AI and defence heighten the need for robust and secure energy networks,” wrote Goldman Sachs Research analyst Eoin Dinsmore in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据高盛研究，铜价上涨通常预示着强劲的工业需求和快速增长的经济，而价格下跌可能表明经济放缓。高盛研究分析师 Eoin Dinsmore 在一份报告中写道，铜是 “全球电网和电力基础设施投资的主要受益者，因为人工智能和国防加大了对强大和安全能源网络的需求。”</p>
</div><p>Gold is seen as more of a “safe-haven” asset and a hedge against inflation. Silver straddles the line between gold and copper and has both investment and industrial purposes. Copper, however, is predominantly industrial. It’s not typically purchased to be stored like gold or silver but meant to be used, which is why it’s usually the strongest indicator, of the three metals, that the economy is moving in the right direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金被视为一种 “避险” 资产和对抗通胀的工具。白银则介于黄金和铜之间，既有投资用途也有工业用途。然而，铜主要是工业用途。它通常不是像黄金或白银那样被购买以储存，而是用于实际生产，这也是为什么在这三种金属中，铜通常是经济向好最强的指标。</p>
</div><p><em>Read more:</em> <em>Why is silver outperforming gold? What to know before you invest.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>阅读更多：</em> <em>为什么白银表现优于黄金？在投资之前需要了解什么。</em></p>
</div><h2>What’s fueling the rally?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么推动了铜价的上涨？</h2>
</div><p>There are a few key reasons that copper is experiencing a surge right now. Major copper-producing regions such as Chile and Indonesia have faced supply challenges and environmental disasters that have contributed to a global copper shortage and a tighter market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价目前上涨的原因有几个。主要的铜生产地区如智利和印度尼西亚面临供应挑战和环境灾难，这导致全球铜短缺和市场紧张。</p>
</div><p>“After essentially flat mine supply growth expected this year, our 2026 mine supply growth estimates have fallen to only around +1.4%, or about 500 kmt lower than our estimates at the beginning of the year,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan, in a statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在预计今年矿山供应增长基本持平后，我们对 2026 年矿山供应增长的预估已降至仅约 +1.4%，比年初的预估低约 50 万吨，” 摩根大通基础和贵金属战略负责人 Gregory Shearer 在一份声明中表示。</p>
</div><p>A dip in supply isn’t the only factor that’s pushing prices higher. In July, the Trump administration issued tariffs on several categories of copper imports, putting additional pressure on the market. At the same time, heavy investment in the AI sector is significantly boosting demand because of its reliance on copper for data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应下降并不是推动价格上涨的唯一因素。今年 7 月，特朗普政府对几类铜进口征收关税，给市场带来了额外压力。同时，人工智能领域的重投资显著提升了需求，因为数据中心对铜的依赖性很高。</p>
</div><p>One source estimates that hyperscale AI data centers can use up to 50,000 tons of copper per facility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一个来源估计，超大规模的人工智能数据中心每个设施可以使用多达 50,000 吨铜。</p>
</div><h2>What’s next for copper?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铜的未来如何？</h2>
</div><p>As far as where prices are headed, JPMorgan Global Research expects copper prices to reach $12,500 a ton in the second quarter of 2026, ultimately averaging around $12,075 a ton for the full year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于价格的走向，摩根大通全球研究预计铜价将在 2026 年第二季度达到每吨 12,500 美元，全年平均约为每吨 12,075 美元。</p>
</div><p>While researchers are optimistic that copper prices will continue on an upward trend, experts say the long-term implications of recent price surges remain uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管研究人员对铜价将继续上涨持乐观态度，但专家表示，近期价格飙升的长期影响仍然不确定。</p>
</div><p>“The intersection of tariffs and copper prices in July 2025 highlights the complex dynamics of global trade and commodity markets,” said David Koch, CFP and director of portfolio management at Halbert Hargrove. “While the immediate effect has been a sharp rise in copper prices, the long-term consequences will depend on how markets, governments, and industries adapt to this new trade environment.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“2025 年 7 月关税与铜价的交汇点突显了全球贸易和商品市场的复杂动态，” Halbert Hargrove 的 CFP 和投资组合管理主任 David Koch 表示。“虽然短期内铜价急剧上涨，但长期后果将取决于市场、政府和行业如何适应这一新的贸易环境。”</p>
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铜价正在飙升。这通常预示着经济会发生什么变化