<p>比特币有望在历史上创下第二差的第四季度表现。截至 2025 年第四季度，比特币已下跌 22.8%，在 85,000 美元以上的损失巩固了圣诞节的忧郁情绪。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>事实上，在更广泛的资产类别中，黄金表现最佳，年涨幅为 69%，而比特币表现最差，损失 5%。</p>
<p>这引出了一个问题：比特币 [BTC] 在年末会如何发展？</p>
<h2>圣诞节后比特币可能反弹？</h2>
<p>根据加密交易平台 QCP 的分析，圣诞假期的流动性稀薄以及 12 月 26 日的大规模期权到期将引发波动。但 QCP 分析师略显乐观，并补充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“随着 85,000 美元的看跌期权未平仓合约减少，空头头寸有所缓解，而 100,000 美元的看涨期权仍然存在，指向谨慎的圣诞反弹乐观情绪。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>该公司还强调，悲观情绪有所减轻，但市场在 12 月 31 日之前仍可能保持区间震荡。</p>
<p>然而，期权分析师 David 预测圣诞节后将出现爆发性上涨。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“预计在圣诞节之前会有波动，随后一旦释放压力可能会出现爆发性走势。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：David/X</p>
<p>David 指出，大型玩家通过看跌墙（空头押注）和看涨墙（多头押注）将价格压制在 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元之间，这相当于 3 亿美元的 gamma 风险敞口。</p>
<p>然而，在节礼日的到期后，比特币可能会突破其区间。</p>
<p>清算热图显示出类似的定位。上涨流动性池（空头头寸）集中在 90,000 美元和 95,000 美元，而下跌头寸则在 84,000 美元。</p>
<p>这表明可能会出现剧烈波动，触及这些水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinAnk</p>
<h2>比特币需求已消失</h2>
<p>话虽如此，CryptoQuant 警告称，比特币的需求已收缩，可能会引发更深的熊市抛售。该分析公司的报告部分内容写道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 10 月初以来，需求增长进入放缓期，目前增长低于趋势。因此，我们认为本周期的大部分需求增长已经过去，对价格产生了相应的熊市影响。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 补充称，比特币的熊市可能在 56,000 美元触底，立即支撑位在 70,000 美元，引用了历史数据。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币在节礼日后可能突破其 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元的价格区间。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，从中期来看，整体需求已收缩，可能转变为熊市。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币在历史上经历了第二差的第四季度表现，2025 年第四季度下跌了 22.8%。分析师建议，由于流动性不足和期权到期，可能会出现圣诞后波动。尽管对圣诞老人反弹存在一些乐观情绪，但市场可能在年末保持区间震荡。比特币的需求已减少，这可能导致更深的熊市，支撑位在 70,000 美元，可能的底部在 56,000 美元</p>

<p>Bitcoin is on track to post the second-worst Q4 performance in history. So far in Q4 2025, the crypto asset has declined by 22.8%, reinforcing Christmas blues as it consolidates losses above $85k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币有望在历史上创下第二差的第四季度表现。截至 2025 年第四季度，比特币已下跌 22.8%，在 85,000 美元以上的损失巩固了圣诞节的忧郁情绪。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>In fact, across broader asset categories, gold was the best performer, with 69% annual gains, while Bitcoin was the worst performer, with a 5% loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，在更广泛的资产类别中，黄金表现最佳，年涨幅为 69%，而比特币表现最差，损失 5%。</p>
</div><p>Which begs the question: What’s next for Bitcoin [BTC] into the end-of-year?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引出了一个问题：比特币 [BTC] 在年末会如何发展？</p>
</div><h2>A potential BTC bounce post-Christmas?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>圣诞节后比特币可能反弹？</h2>
</div><p>According to the crypto trading desk, QCP, the Christmas holiday’s thin liquidity and the massive Options expiry on the 26th of December, would trigger volatility. But QCP analysts were slightly optimistic and added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据加密交易平台 QCP 的分析，圣诞假期的流动性稀薄以及 12 月 26 日的大规模期权到期将引发波动。但 QCP 分析师略显乐观，并补充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Downside positioning has eased as 85k Put open interest drifts lower, while 100k Calls persist, pointing to tentative Santa rally optimism.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“随着 85,000 美元的看跌期权未平仓合约减少，空头头寸有所缓解，而 100,000 美元的看涨期权仍然存在，指向谨慎的圣诞反弹乐观情绪。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The firm also highlighted that bearish sentiment has eased, but the markets could still remain range-bound until the 31st of December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还强调，悲观情绪有所减轻，但市场在 12 月 31 日之前仍可能保持区间震荡。</p>
</div><p>However, Options analyst David projected an explosive upside move after Christmas Day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，期权分析师 David 预测圣诞节后将出现爆发性上涨。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Expect chop until Christmas, followed by a potential explosive move once the pin is released.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“预计在圣诞节之前会有波动，随后一旦释放压力可能会出现爆发性走势。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: David/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：David/X</p>
</div><p>David highlighted that big players were pinning price between $85K-$90K via put wall (bearish bets) and call wall (bullish bets), translating to $300 million in gamma exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>David 指出，大型玩家通过看跌墙（空头押注）和看涨墙（多头押注）将价格压制在 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元之间，这相当于 3 亿美元的 gamma 风险敞口。</p>
</div><p>However, after the expiry on Boxing Day, BTC could potentially break out of its range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在节礼日的到期后，比特币可能会突破其区间。</p>
</div><p>A similar positioning was painted by liquidation heatmaps. Upside liquidity pools (short positions) were concentrated at $90K and $95K, while downside positions were at $84K.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>清算热图显示出类似的定位。上涨流动性池（空头头寸）集中在 90,000 美元和 95,000 美元，而下跌头寸则在 84,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>This suggested potential wild swings that could tag these levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明可能会出现剧烈波动，触及这些水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinAnk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinAnk</p>
</div><h2>BTC demand has evaporated</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币需求已消失</h2>
</div><p>That being said, CryptoQuant cautioned that BTC’s demand has contracted and could usher in deeper bear market capitulation. Part of the analytics firm’s report read,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，CryptoQuant 警告称，比特币的需求已收缩，可能会引发更深的熊市抛售。该分析公司的报告部分内容写道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The demand growth entered a slowdown period since early October and is now growing below trend. As such, we believe most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed, with the corresponding bearish effect on price.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 10 月初以来，需求增长进入放缓期，目前增长低于趋势。因此，我们认为本周期的大部分需求增长已经过去，对价格产生了相应的熊市影响。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>CryptoQuant added that BTC’s bear market could bottom out at $56k with immediate support at $70K, citing historical data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 补充称，比特币的熊市可能在 56,000 美元触底，立即支撑位在 70,000 美元，引用了历史数据。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>BTC could front a bullish breakout of its $85K-$90K price range after Boxing Day.</em></li>
<li><em>However, in the mid-term, the overall demand has contracted and could morph into a bear market.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币在节礼日后可能突破其 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元的价格区间。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，从中期来看，整体需求已收缩，可能转变为熊市。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币的圣诞节忧郁——为什么 BTC 的圣诞行情可能会被取消