<h3><strong>关键要点</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>在经历了缓慢的开局后，2025 年底国债收益率曲线的陡峭化获得了动力，因为美联储在三个月内降息 75 个基点，推动短期收益率下降。</li>
<li>随着经济温和增长和通胀在 2026 年可能保持在 2% 以上，长期收益率可能会上升，而短期利率保持平稳，从而进一步加剧曲线的陡峭化。</li>
<li>一种主动/被动的债券杠铃策略为投资者提供了一个及时的方式来锁定收益，同时保持比基准综合债券更短的久期，符合不断变化的收益率曲线动态。</li>
</ul>
<p>在我们准备结束 2025 年之际，美国国债市场的一个突出趋势是收益率曲线的陡峭化。现在的问题是这一趋势是否会持续到 2026 年，如果会，投资者应该如何调整他们的债券投资组合？答案是：主动/被动杠铃策略。</p>
<p><strong>美国国债收益率曲线</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="841" height="365" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：彭博社，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日</p>
<p>在分析国债收益率曲线时，需要关注的两个主要指标是 3 个月/10 年和 2 年/10 年构造。正如图表清楚地显示，2025 年日历年终于使这两个利差进入了正值区域。正如预期的那样，从曲线倒挂或负差异到正值的转变始于 2024 年 9 月美联储首次降息。</p>
<p>然而，正如你所看到的，2024 年美联储降息后的初始陡峭化交易似乎有些乏力。直到美联储在这一宽松周期中启动第二轮降息时，曲线陡峭化交易才以更明显的方式回归。具体来说，最近经历这一交易的是 3 个月/10 年构造。鉴于 3 个月国库券收益率与联邦基金利率之间的直接相关性，这并不令人惊讶，因为美联储在过去三个月内已经降息 75 个基点。3 个月的收益率正在追赶 2 年期国债已经折现的联邦基金利率的走势。因此，这两条曲线之间的利差现在更接近于一致。</p>
<h3><strong>2026 年将会怎样？</strong></h3>
<p>对于明年，似乎收益率曲线陡峭化交易的阻力最小路径将继续。也许最引人注目的问题是它将如何陡峭化。请记住，这实际上只是数学问题。收益率曲线的方向将取决于你所测量的两个到期日的收益率。我们对明年的基本预期是，经济将实现温和增长，通胀将保持在美联储 2% 的目标之上。在这种背景下，以及美联储内部存在 “分歧” 的情况下，短期收益率或曲线的前端可能会保持平稳，或者可能略微下降。然而，长期到期（曲线的后端）可能会见证收益率的上升。因此，收益率曲线陡峭化。</p>
<h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
<p>所以，回到开头。主动/被动债券杠铃策略使投资者在收入和久期定位上具有灵活性。它提供了一种锁定收益的方式，同时保持久期特征低于基准综合债券。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美联储观察：重新校准 “重新校准”</p>
<p>新招聘和失业率如何同时上升？</p>
<p>美联储观察：一个分裂的家庭？</p>

美国债券综合指数 ETF - iShares

<p>美国国债收益率曲线在 2025 年底变陡，因为美联储将利率下调了 75 个基点，降低了短期收益率。预计 2026 年经济将适度增长，通胀率将超过 2%，这可能导致长期收益率上升，进一步加剧曲线陡峭。建议投资者采用主动/被动债券杠铃策略，以锁定收益，同时保持比基准综合债券指数更短的久期，以适应收益率曲线的动态变化</p>

<h3><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>关键要点</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>After a sluggish start, the Treasury yield curve steepening gained momentum in late 2025 as the Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points over three months, driving short-term yields lower.</li>
<li>With moderate economic growth and inflation likely to stay above 2% in 2026, longer-term yields could rise while short-term rates stay flat, further steepening the curve.</li>
<li>An active/passive bond barbell strategy offers investors a timely way to lock in income while maintaining a shorter duration than the benchmark Agg, aligning with evolving yield curve dynamics.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在经历了缓慢的开局后，2025 年底国债收益率曲线的陡峭化获得了动力，因为美联储在三个月内降息 75 个基点，推动短期收益率下降。</li>
<li>随着经济温和增长和通胀在 2026 年可能保持在 2% 以上，长期收益率可能会上升，而短期利率保持平稳，从而进一步加剧曲线的陡峭化。</li>
<li>一种主动/被动的债券杠铃策略为投资者提供了一个及时的方式来锁定收益，同时保持比基准综合债券更短的久期，符合不断变化的收益率曲线动态。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>As we get ready to close out 2025, one stand-out trend in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been the steepening of the yield curve. The question now is whether this trend will continue into 2026, and if it does, how should investors position their bond portfolios? The answer: the active/passive barbell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们准备结束 2025 年之际，美国国债市场的一个突出趋势是收益率曲线的陡峭化。现在的问题是这一趋势是否会持续到 2026 年，如果会，投资者应该如何调整他们的债券投资组合？答案是：主动/被动杠铃策略。</p>
</div><p><strong>U.S. Treasury Yield Curves</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国国债收益率曲线</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/19/25</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：彭博社，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日</p>
</div><p>When examining the Treasury yield curve, the two prominent measures to be analyzed are the 3-month/10-year and 2-year/10-year constructs. As the graph clearly illustrates, calendar year 2025 finally brought both spreads into positive territory. As one would expect, the reversal in the trade from curve inversion, or negative differentials, to readings on the plus side of the ledger began with the Federal Reserve’s first rate cuts in September 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在分析国债收益率曲线时，需要关注的两个主要指标是 3 个月/10 年和 2 年/10 年构造。正如图表清楚地显示，2025 年日历年终于使这两个利差进入了正值区域。正如预期的那样，从曲线倒挂或负差异到正值的转变始于 2024 年 9 月美联储首次降息。</p>
</div><p>However, as you can see, the initial steepening trade following the 2024 Fed rate cuts kind of ran out of gas. It really wasn’t until the Fed kick-started round two of rate cuts in this easing cycle that the curve steepener trade returned in a more visible fashion. Specifically, it was the 3-mo/10-yr construct that has recently experienced this trade. Given the direct correlation of the 3-month t-bill yield to the Fed Funds Rate, this should come as no surprise, given the fact the Fed has now cut rates by 75 basis points over the last three months. The 3-month yield was catching up to what the 2-year note had already discounted regarding where the Fed Funds Rate was headed. As a result, the spreads between these two curves are now closer to being aligned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如你所看到的，2024 年美联储降息后的初始陡峭化交易似乎有些乏力。直到美联储在这一宽松周期中启动第二轮降息时，曲线陡峭化交易才以更明显的方式回归。具体来说，最近经历这一交易的是 3 个月/10 年构造。鉴于 3 个月国库券收益率与联邦基金利率之间的直接相关性，这并不令人惊讶，因为美联储在过去三个月内已经降息 75 个基点。3 个月的收益率正在追赶 2 年期国债已经折现的联邦基金利率的走势。因此，这两条曲线之间的利差现在更接近于一致。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What Will 2026 Have in Store?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2026 年将会怎样？</strong></h3>
</div><p>For next year, it appears as if the path of least resistance would be for the curve steepener trade to continue. Perhaps the most intriguing question is how it will steepen. Remember, it really is just math. The yield curve direction will be predicated on the two maturities you are measuring in terms of yield. Our baseline for next year is that the economy is going to post moderate growth and inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Against this backdrop, and one of a Fed with a ” house divided,” short-term yields, or the front-end of the curve, would probably be flattish or perhaps could drift a bit lower. Longer-dated maturities (the back-end of the curve), however, could witness an increase in yields. Hence, the yield curve steepens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于明年，似乎收益率曲线陡峭化交易的阻力最小路径将继续。也许最引人注目的问题是它将如何陡峭化。请记住，这实际上只是数学问题。收益率曲线的方向将取决于你所测量的两个到期日的收益率。我们对明年的基本预期是，经济将实现温和增长，通胀将保持在美联储 2% 的目标之上。在这种背景下，以及美联储内部存在 “分歧” 的情况下，短期收益率或曲线的前端可能会保持平稳，或者可能略微下降。然而，长期到期（曲线的后端）可能会见证收益率的上升。因此，收益率曲线陡峭化。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
</div><p>So, back to the beginning. The active/passive bond barbell allows investors to have flexibility in their income and duration positioning. It provides a means to lock in income while keeping the duration profile below that of the benchmark Agg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，回到开头。主动/被动债券杠铃策略使投资者在收入和久期定位上具有灵活性。它提供了一种锁定收益的方式，同时保持久期特征低于基准综合债券。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Fed Watch: Recalibrating The “Recalibration”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储观察：重新校准 “重新校准”</p>
</div><p>How Can New Hiring And The Unemployment Rate Rise At The Same Time?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新招聘和失业率如何同时上升？</p>
</div><p>Fed Watch: A House Divided?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储观察：一个分裂的家庭？</p>
</div>

曲线陡峭化的解决方案：主动/被动杠铃策略