<h2>贷款困境：Evertrust 表示，抵押贷款利率已攀升至自 2008 年金融危机以来的最高水平，使首次购房者的借款变得困难。</h2>
<p>永庆房屋在周三表示，台湾的房地产市场预计将在明年整合，交易量预计将保持在今年的水平，因为紧缩的抵押贷款条件继续对需求施加压力。</p>
<p>该公司预测，明年的房屋销售量将在 251,000 到 264,000 之间，这意味着与今年估计的 260,000 套相比，可能出现 3% 的下降或轻微的 2% 的增长。</p>
<p>永庆总经理叶凌棋在台北的新闻发布会上表示，今年的数字将代表 27% 的下滑，这归因于中央银行对房地产贷款的限制。</p>
<p>叶表示：“政策收紧带来的最糟糕情况可能已经过去，除非出现重大经济或政策冲击，否则情况不太可能恶化。”</p>
<p>他说，投机性买家大多已退出市场，交易越来越多地由自住型购房者驱动，只要台湾经济保持大体稳定。</p>
<p>叶指出，影响前景的四大主要不确定性包括：全球人工智能繁荣的健康状况、特朗普总统下的华盛顿贸易政策、国内住房政策方向、两岸关系以及新住房供应的速度。</p>
<p>借款成本仍然是一个主要的阻力。</p>
<p>叶表示，抵押贷款利率已攀升至约 2.3%，为 2008-2009 年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，降低了首次购房者的可负担性。</p>
<p>他说，多年来，台湾购房者习惯于低于 2% 的抵押贷款利率，尽管房价高企，并补充说，利率已成为市场上最关键的变量。</p>
<p>当政府的利息补贴计划在明年 7 月到期时，可负担性压力将加剧。</p>
<p>该计划为高达 NT$1000 万（约 317,662 美元）的贷款提供补贴利率，并设有五年的宽限期，帮助家庭缓解上升的借款成本，永庆表示。</p>
<p>当局计划在明年 7 月推出额外的支持措施，尽管叶对过早披露细节表示谨慎。</p>
<p>他表示，早期信号可能会鼓励潜在买家观望，风险是在上半年交易冻结。</p>
<p>尽管如此，住房情绪略有改善。</p>
<p>调查显示，预计明年第一季度房价下跌的受访者比例从上季度的 50% 降至 39%，而预计房价上涨的比例上升至 26%。</p>
<p>永庆研究经理陈赐杰表示，约 35% 的受访者预计房价将保持稳定。</p>
<p>陈表示，这一变化是在政策制定者决定免除首次购房者的房地产贷款限制后发生的，尽管他们仍然维持整体信贷控制。</p>
<p>在上周四，中央银行放宽了对银行的贷款减少要求，并要求贷款机构每月提交抵押贷款数据，这可能会带来额外的缓解。</p>
<p>陈补充说，这一举措可能有助于加快之前延迟或中断交易的贷款审批。</p>

AOMR

<p>台湾的房地产市场预计将在明年进行整合，交易量将与今年相似，原因是抵押贷款条件紧张。抵押贷款利率已升至自 2008 年金融危机以来的最高水平，影响了首次购房者。永信房屋预测，房屋销售量将在 251,000 到 264,000 之间，与今年的 260,000 略有变化。市场主要由自住型购房者推动，但面临的不确定因素包括全球人工智能趋势、美国贸易政策、国内住房政策以及两岸关系。随着政府的利息补贴计划在七月结束，购房负担压力可能会增加</p>

<h2>LENDING WOES: Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, making borrowing difficult for first-time buyers, Evertrust said</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贷款困境：Evertrust 表示，抵押贷款利率已攀升至自 2008 年金融危机以来的最高水平，使首次购房者的借款变得困难。</h2>
</div><p>Taiwan’s housing market is set to consolidate next year, with transaction volumes expected to hold near this year’s levels as tight mortgage conditions continue to weigh on demand, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房屋) said on Wednesday, citing a quarterly survey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永庆房屋在周三表示，台湾的房地产市场预计将在明年整合，交易量预计将保持在今年的水平，因为紧缩的抵押贷款条件继续对需求施加压力。</p>
</div><p>Between 251,000 and 264,000 home sales are forecast for next year, implying anything from a 3 percent decline to a mild 2 percent increase from this year’s estimated 260,000 units, the company said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司预测，明年的房屋销售量将在 251,000 到 264,000 之间，这意味着与今年估计的 260,000 套相比，可能出现 3% 的下降或轻微的 2% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>This year’s figures would represent a 27 percent slump, attributable to the central bank’s property loan curbs, Evertrust general manager Yeh Ling-chi (葉凌棋) told a news conference in Taipei.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永庆总经理叶凌棋在台北的新闻发布会上表示，今年的数字将代表 27% 的下滑，这归因于中央银行对房地产贷款的限制。</p>
</div><p>“The worst from policy tightening is likely over and conditions are unlikely to deteriorate, barring major economic or policy shocks,” Yeh said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叶表示：“政策收紧带来的最糟糕情况可能已经过去，除非出现重大经济或政策冲击，否则情况不太可能恶化。”</p>
</div><p>Speculative buyers have mostly exited the market, leaving transactions increasingly driven by owner-occupiers, he said, as long as Taiwan’s economy remains broadly stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，投机性买家大多已退出市场，交易越来越多地由自住型购房者驱动，只要台湾经济保持大体稳定。</p>
</div><p>Yeh flagged four major uncertainties shaping the outlook: the health of a global artificial intelligence boom, Washington’s trade policy under US President Donald Trump, domestic housing policy directions, cross-strait relations and the pace of new housing supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叶指出，影响前景的四大主要不确定性包括：全球人工智能繁荣的健康状况、特朗普总统下的华盛顿贸易政策、国内住房政策方向、两岸关系以及新住房供应的速度。</p>
</div><p>Borrowing costs remain a key headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>借款成本仍然是一个主要的阻力。</p>
</div><p>Mortgage rates have climbed to about 2.3 percent, the highest since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, eroding affordability for first-time buyers, Yeh said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叶表示，抵押贷款利率已攀升至约 2.3%，为 2008-2009 年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，降低了首次购房者的可负担性。</p>
</div><p>For years, Taiwanese homebuyers had grown accustomed to mortgage rates below 2 percent despite elevated home prices, he said, adding that interest rates have become the single most critical variable for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，多年来，台湾购房者习惯于低于 2% 的抵押贷款利率，尽管房价高企，并补充说，利率已成为市场上最关键的变量。</p>
</div><p>Affordability pressures are set to intensify when a government interest-subsidy program expires in July next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当政府的利息补贴计划在明年 7 月到期时，可负担性压力将加剧。</p>
</div><p>The scheme, which provides subsidized interest rates on loans of up to NT$10 million (US$317,662) along with a five-year grace period, helped cushion households from rising borrowing costs, Evertrust said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该计划为高达 NT$1000 万（约 317,662 美元）的贷款提供补贴利率，并设有五年的宽限期，帮助家庭缓解上升的借款成本，永庆表示。</p>
</div><p>Authorities plan to roll out additional support measures in July next year, although Yeh cautioned against disclosing details too soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当局计划在明年 7 月推出额外的支持措施，尽管叶对过早披露细节表示谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Early signals could encourage would-be buyers to sit on the sidelines, risking a freeze in transactions during the first half of the year, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，早期信号可能会鼓励潜在买家观望，风险是在上半年交易冻结。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, housing sentiment has improved modestly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，住房情绪略有改善。</p>
</div><p>The share of respondents expecting home prices to fall in the first quarter of next year dropped to 39 percent from 50 percent in the prior quarter, while those anticipating price gains rose to 26 percent, the survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调查显示，预计明年第一季度房价下跌的受访者比例从上季度的 50% 降至 39%，而预计房价上涨的比例上升至 26%。</p>
</div><p>About 35 percent of respondents expect prices to hold steady, Evertrust research manager Daniel Chen (陳賜傑) said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永庆研究经理陈赐杰表示，约 35% 的受访者预计房价将保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>The shift followed policymakers’ decision to exempt first-time homebuyers from property loan restrictions, even as they maintain overall credit controls, Chen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陈表示，这一变化是在政策制定者决定免除首次购房者的房地产贷款限制后发生的，尽管他们仍然维持整体信贷控制。</p>
</div><p>Additional relief might be emerging after the central bank on Thursday last week eased loan-reduction requirements for banks and required lenders to submit mortgage data on a monthly basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上周四，中央银行放宽了对银行的贷款减少要求，并要求贷款机构每月提交抵押贷款数据，这可能会带来额外的缓解。</p>
</div><p>The move could help speed up loan approvals that had previously delayed or derailed transactions, Chen added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陈补充说，这一举措可能有助于加快之前延迟或中断交易的贷款审批。</p>
</div>

经纪人表示，房地产市场将在明年整合