<p>根据 CoinGlass 的报告，比特币的价格现在更多地受到衍生品市场的影响，而非现货交易。这标志着资产价格波动和风险在市场上传递的结构性变化。</p>
<p>报告显示，期货、永续合约和期权现在占据了比特币交易活动的主要部分。</p>
<p>此外，衍生品的交易量始终超过现货交易量，即使在价格波动加剧的时期也是如此。</p>
<p>因此，短期价格方向越来越多地由持仓、杠杆和对冲行为决定，而不是比特币本身的直接买卖。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币衍生品交易量超过现货交易</strong></h2>
<p>CoinGlass 的数据突显出，比特币衍生品的交易量已经增长到现货市场活动的几倍。这一模式在上涨、回调和整合阶段中保持不变。</p>
<p>这种不平衡表明，价格发现，即市场确定价值的过程，已不再主要由现货流动驱动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Coinglass</p>
<p>相反，期货和永续合约越来越主导价格波动，现货市场在方向性动量已经建立后才做出反应。</p>
<p>这与早期周期有所不同，当时持续的现货积累或分配在趋势方向中扮演了更清晰的角色。</p>
<h2><strong>期货和期权现在主导短期价格走势</strong></h2>
<p>报告还强调了期权和期货市场日益增长的影响力，特别是在机构参与增加的情况下。</p>
<p>与 ETF、宏观经济事件和波动管理相关的对冲活动变得更加突出。这使得大型参与者能够在不进行现货比特币交易的情况下表达方向性观点。</p>
<p>这种转变有助于解释为什么最近的市场波动在表面上看起来较为平静。价格上涨和回调往往发生在现货交易量没有相应激增的情况下。</p>
<p>这一变化表明，推动边际价格变化的是杠杆和衍生品持仓，而非新资本流入。</p>
<h2><strong>平静的价格走势掩盖了潜在风险</strong></h2>
<p>尽管衍生品的主导地位日益增强，比特币的实际波动性在较长时间内仍然相对低迷。CoinGlass 的数据表明，开放兴趣高企的同时波动性却被压缩。</p>
<p>这种组合表明，风险正在系统中被储存，而不是被解决。</p>
<p>这样的条件可能会造成稳定的表象。然而，当持仓变得拥挤或强制去杠杆发生时，也增加了价格突然调整的可能性。</p>
<p>在这种环境下，价格修正更可能是由资金压力或清算级联引发，而不是现货需求的逐步变化。</p>
<h2><strong>与之前周期不同的市场结构</strong></h2>
<p>报告强调了比特币当前周期与之前周期的独特性。历史上，主要市场转折点通常与现货驱动的抛售或积累相关。</p>
<p>如今，转折点越来越多地与衍生品持仓变化、期权到期动态和杠杆重置相关联。</p>
<p>随着比特币作为金融资产的不断成熟，其行为开始类似于传统的宏观交易工具，其中衍生品市场在价格形成中扮演着核心角色。</p>
<h2><strong>这对市场意味着什么</strong></h2>
<p>对于交易者和投资者而言，CoinGlass 建议监测衍生品指标变得比单纯跟踪现货流动更为重要。</p>
<p>虽然现货市场对于长期供应动态仍然重要，但短期价格走势现在更敏感于风险的持仓方式，而不是比特币的直接买卖量。</p>
<p>随着衍生品市场的不断深化，比特币的价格在表面上可能显得更加平静，但塑造其波动的力量正变得越来越复杂——并且集中在其背后。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>比特币的价格越来越受到衍生品持仓的影响，使得杠杆和对冲活动比现货需求更具影响力。</li>
<li>在现货市场重新获得主导地位之前，价格波动可能仍然受到控制——但更容易受到突然的、由持仓驱动的波动影响。</li>
</ul>
<hr/>

GBTC

<p>根据 CoinGlass 的报告，比特币的价格发现已从现货交易转向衍生品市场。期货、永续合约和期权现在主导着交易活动，通过持仓和杠杆影响短期价格方向。这一结构性变化表明，驱动价格波动的是衍生品，而非现货流动，机构参与和对冲活动在其中发挥了关键作用。尽管表面价格走势平稳，但由于未平仓合约水平较高和波动性压缩，潜在风险依然存在，使市场容易受到衍生品持仓驱动的突发波动影响</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s price is now being shaped more by derivatives markets than by spot trading, according to CoinGlass’ report. This marks a structural shift in how the asset moves and how risk is transmitted across the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CoinGlass 的报告，比特币的价格现在更多地受到衍生品市场的影响，而非现货交易。这标志着资产价格波动和风险在市场上传递的结构性变化。</p>
</div><p>The report shows that futures, perpetual swaps, and options now account for the majority of Bitcoin trading activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告显示，期货、永续合约和期权现在占据了比特币交易活动的主要部分。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, derivatives volume consistently exceeds spot volume, even during periods of heightened price volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，衍生品的交易量始终超过现货交易量，即使在价格波动加剧的时期也是如此。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the short-term price direction is increasingly determined by positioning, leverage, and hedging behavior rather than the outright buying or selling of Bitcoin itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，短期价格方向越来越多地由持仓、杠杆和对冲行为决定，而不是比特币本身的直接买卖。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin derivatives volumes eclipse spot trading</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币衍生品交易量超过现货交易</strong></h2>
</div><p>CoinGlass data highlights that Bitcoin derivatives volume has grown to several multiples of spot market activity. This pattern has remained intact throughout rallies, corrections, and consolidation phases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoinGlass 的数据突显出，比特币衍生品的交易量已经增长到现货市场活动的几倍。这一模式在上涨、回调和整合阶段中保持不变。</p>
</div><p>This imbalance suggests that price discovery, the process by which markets determine value, is no longer driven primarily by spot flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不平衡表明，价格发现，即市场确定价值的过程，已不再主要由现货流动驱动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Coinglass</p>
</div><p>Instead, futures and perpetual contracts increasingly lead price moves, with spot markets reacting after directional momentum has already been established.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，期货和永续合约越来越主导价格波动，现货市场在方向性动量已经建立后才做出反应。</p>
</div><p>This is a departure from earlier cycles, when sustained spot accumulation or distribution played a clearer role in trend direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与早期周期有所不同，当时持续的现货积累或分配在趋势方向中扮演了更清晰的角色。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Futures and options now lead short-term price action</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>期货和期权现在主导短期价格走势</strong></h2>
</div><p>The report also highlights the growing influence of options and futures markets, particularly as institutional participation has increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告还强调了期权和期货市场日益增长的影响力，特别是在机构参与增加的情况下。</p>
</div><p>Hedging activity tied to ETFs, macroeconomic events, and volatility management has become more prominent. This has allowed large participants to express directional views without transacting in spot Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 ETF、宏观经济事件和波动管理相关的对冲活动变得更加突出。这使得大型参与者能够在不进行现货比特币交易的情况下表达方向性观点。</p>
</div><p>This shift helps explain why recent market moves have appeared muted on the surface. Price advances and pullbacks have often occurred without corresponding surges in spot volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种转变有助于解释为什么最近的市场波动在表面上看起来较为平静。价格上涨和回调往往发生在现货交易量没有相应激增的情况下。</p>
</div><p>The move indicates leverage and derivatives positioning, rather than fresh capital inflows, are driving marginal price changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化表明，推动边际价格变化的是杠杆和衍生品持仓，而非新资本流入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Calm price action masks underlying risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>平静的价格走势掩盖了潜在风险</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite the growing dominance of derivatives, realised volatility in Bitcoin has remained relatively subdued for extended periods. CoinGlass data shows elevated open interest alongside compressed volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管衍生品的主导地位日益增强，比特币的实际波动性在较长时间内仍然相对低迷。CoinGlass 的数据表明，开放兴趣高企的同时波动性却被压缩。</p>
</div><p>This combination suggests risk is being stored in the system rather than resolved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种组合表明，风险正在系统中被储存，而不是被解决。</p>
</div><p>Such conditions can create the appearance of stability. However, they also increase the likelihood of abrupt price adjustments when positioning becomes crowded or when forced deleveraging occurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的条件可能会造成稳定的表象。然而，当持仓变得拥挤或强制去杠杆发生时，也增加了价格突然调整的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In this environment, price corrections are more likely to be triggered by funding stress or liquidation cascades than by gradual shifts in spot demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种环境下，价格修正更可能是由资金压力或清算级联引发，而不是现货需求的逐步变化。</p>
</div><h2><strong>A different market structure than previous cycles</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>与之前周期不同的市场结构</strong></h2>
</div><p>The report highlights the distinctiveness of Bitcoin’s current cycle compared to previous ones. Historically, major market turning points were often associated with spot-driven capitulation or accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告强调了比特币当前周期与之前周期的独特性。历史上，主要市场转折点通常与现货驱动的抛售或积累相关。</p>
</div><p>Today, turning points are increasingly linked to changes in derivatives positioning, options expiry dynamics, and leverage resets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，转折点越来越多地与衍生品持仓变化、期权到期动态和杠杆重置相关联。</p>
</div><p>As Bitcoin continues to mature as a financial asset, its behaviour is beginning to resemble that of traditional macro-traded instruments, where derivatives markets play a central role in price formation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着比特币作为金融资产的不断成熟，其行为开始类似于传统的宏观交易工具，其中衍生品市场在价格形成中扮演着核心角色。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What this means for the market</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>这对市场意味着什么</strong></h2>
</div><p>For traders and investors, CoinGlass suggests that monitoring derivatives metrics has become more important than tracking spot flows alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于交易者和投资者而言，CoinGlass 建议监测衍生品指标变得比单纯跟踪现货流动更为重要。</p>
</div><p>While spot markets still matter for long-term supply dynamics, short-term price action is now more sensitive to how risk is positioned rather than how much Bitcoin is being bought or sold outright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然现货市场对于长期供应动态仍然重要，但短期价格走势现在更敏感于风险的持仓方式，而不是比特币的直接买卖量。</p>
</div><p>As derivatives markets continue to deepen, Bitcoin’s price may appear calmer on the surface, but the forces shaping its movements are increasingly complex — and concentrated beneath it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着衍生品市场的不断深化，比特币的价格在表面上可能显得更加平静，但塑造其波动的力量正变得越来越复杂——并且集中在其背后。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin’s price is increasingly shaped by derivatives positioning, making leverage and hedging activity more influential than spot demand.</li>
<li>Until spot markets regain dominance, price moves may remain controlled — but more vulnerable to sudden, positioning-driven volatility.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特币的价格越来越受到衍生品持仓的影响，使得杠杆和对冲活动比现货需求更具影响力。</li>
<li>在现货市场重新获得主导地位之前，价格波动可能仍然受到控制——但更容易受到突然的、由持仓驱动的波动影响。</li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特币的价格发现已经明确地转向了衍生品市场