<p>几周前，房地产股票 Zillow (Z) 发布了关于 2026 年住房市场预测的消息。对它以及依赖于它的公司（如家居改善巨头 Home Depot (HD)）来说，好消息是市场应该会改善。但这可能吗？让我们在圣诞节这一天来看看这些预测，以及它们可能意味着什么。</p>
<h3>这个假期 TipRanks 享受 70% 的折扣</h3>
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<li>解锁对冲基金级别的数据和强大的投资工具，以做出更聪明、更精准的决策</li>
<li>通过最新的新闻和分析保持市场领先，最大化您的投资组合潜力</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>好消息</strong></h2>
<p>Zillow 对 2026 年的预测虽然适度，但与 2025 年的数据相比仍然令人兴奋。Zillow 预计整体房价将上涨，这在过去几个月价格高企的情况下本身就是一个惊喜。当然，不同市场之间会有差异，因此请将这些数据视为主要的汇总数字。</p>
<p>事实上，Zillow 预计只有少数主要市场的房价会下降。2026 年只有 12 个主要市场会出现房价下跌，较今年的 24 个市场有所减少。尽管如此，Zillow 预计 2026 年的房屋销售将增加。Zillow 预计 2026 年将售出 426 万套房屋，比 2025 年增长 4.3%。</p>
<p>而且，Zillow 预计租金会略微上升，但幅度很小。实际上，Zillow 的预测显示多户住宅租金仅增长 0.3%。基本上，Zillow 预测被压抑的需求将最终释放，房价至少会有所下降，从而使销售开始上升。这是一个合理的预测，但只有时间能证明它是否会实现。</p>
<p>如果租金继续上涨，这反过来应该会提高人们放弃租赁协议并将那笔钱投入自己拥有的房产的可能性。虽然上涨的租金确实使得存下首付款变得更加困难，但上涨的租金也增加了一种紧迫感，这在之前可能并不存在。</p>
<p>Zillow 的首席经济学家 Mischa Fisher 指出：“住房市场终于开始进入一个更健康的状态，买卖双方开始回归。买家受益于更多的库存和改善的可负担性，而卖家则看到价格稳定和更一致的需求。到 2026 年，每个群体都应该有更多的喘息空间。”</p>
<h2><strong>坏消息</strong></h2>
<p>所以 Zillow 的展望是乐观的，但一个关键的潜在条件却让人担忧。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan (JPM)）发布了一项关于 2026 年就业市场的研究，这与 Zillow 的乐观预测有些相悖。正如你可能知道的，2025 年对美国劳动市场来说是一个相对糟糕的时期。</p>
<p>裁员遍及各地，科技行业因削减成本或引入人工智能而缩减规模。裁员的广泛消息通常不会激发人们进行大额消费的意愿，而房屋是大多数人能做出的最大消费之一。因此，谨慎的劳动市场不太可能急于签署抵押贷款，除非未来有明显的变化。</p>
<p>不过，这里并非全是坏消息。摩根大通的报告表明，2026 年下半年劳动率可能会有所改善。减税和降息的结合将共同改善经济状况。尽管有一些迹象表明人工智能正在削减劳动力数量，但摩根大通明确表示 “……没有迹象表明由于人工智能导致大规模的工作中断。”</p>
<p>当然，问题在于，住房复苏的任何希望都依赖于摩根大通的预测是否准确。如果利率削减未能实现，减税幅度不够，裁员加速……其中任何一点都可能 derail 整个过程。</p>
<h2><strong>现在买 Zillow 股票合适吗？</strong></h2>
<p>转向华尔街，分析师对 Z 股票的共识评级为适度买入，过去三个月内有三次买入和两次持有，如下图所示。在过去一年中，Z 股票的股价下跌了 10.04%，平均目标价为每股 90.33 美元，意味着有 30.42% 的上涨潜力。</p>

Zillow集团-A

<p>Zillow 预计到 2026 年，整体房价和房屋销售将会上升，只有 12 个主要市场会出现价格下跌。多户住宅租金预计会略有上涨。然而，摩根大通的研究表明，由于就业市场不稳定，可能存在潜在的担忧。分析师对 Zillow 股票的共识评级为适度买入，预计有 30.42% 的上涨潜力</p>

<p>So real estate stock Zillow (Z) brought out word a couple weeks ago about its projections for the 2026 housing market. And the good news for it—and for companies that depend on it like home improvement giant Home Depot (HD)—is that it should improve. But is this likely? Let's spend our Christmas Day having a look at the projections, and what they might mean.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几周前，房地产股票 Zillow (Z) 发布了关于 2026 年住房市场预测的消息。对它以及依赖于它的公司（如家居改善巨头 Home Depot (HD)）来说，好消息是市场应该会改善。但这可能吗？让我们在圣诞节这一天来看看这些预测，以及它们可能意味着什么。</p>
</div><h3>Claim 70% Off TipRanks This Holiday Season</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>这个假期 TipRanks 享受 70% 的折扣</h3>
</div><ul>
<li>Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions</li>
<li>Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>解锁对冲基金级别的数据和强大的投资工具，以做出更聪明、更精准的决策</li>
<li>通过最新的新闻和分析保持市场领先，最大化您的投资组合潜力</li>
</ul>
</div><h2><strong>The Good News</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>好消息</strong></h2>
</div><p>Zillow has some modest, but still somewhat exciting, projections for 2026, particularly when compared to 2025's figures. Zillow looks for an overall rise in home values, which is a surprise in and of itself given the elevated prices that we have seen for the last few months. Naturally, there will be differences going from one market to another, so consider these mostly aggregate figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zillow 对 2026 年的预测虽然适度，但与 2025 年的数据相比仍然令人兴奋。Zillow 预计整体房价将上涨，这在过去几个月价格高企的情况下本身就是一个惊喜。当然，不同市场之间会有差异，因此请将这些数据视为主要的汇总数字。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Zillow looks for price declines in only a handful of major markets. Only 12 major markets will see price declines in 2026, a projection down from 24 markets this year. Despite this, Zillow looks for home sales to increase in 2026. Zillow expects 4.26 million homes to be sold in 2026, which will be up 4.3% against 2025's figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，Zillow 预计只有少数主要市场的房价会下降。2026 年只有 12 个主要市场会出现房价下跌，较今年的 24 个市场有所减少。尽管如此，Zillow 预计 2026 年的房屋销售将增加。Zillow 预计 2026 年将售出 426 万套房屋，比 2025 年增长 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>And just to top it off, Zillow looks for rents to get worse, but only slightly. Very slightly, in fact; Zillow's projections look for multifamily rents to increase only 0.3%. Basically, Zillow is projecting that pent-up demand will finally break, and home prices will decline at least somewhat to make sales start to rise. It is a reasonable projection, but only time will tell if it comes to pass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，Zillow 预计租金会略微上升，但幅度很小。实际上，Zillow 的预测显示多户住宅租金仅增长 0.3%。基本上，Zillow 预测被压抑的需求将最终释放，房价至少会有所下降，从而使销售开始上升。这是一个合理的预测，但只有时间能证明它是否会实现。</p>
</div><p>And if rent prices continue to go up, that in turn should improve the likelihood that people will throw aside their rental agreements and channel that money into a property they own instead. While rising rents do make a down payment harder to save up for, rising rents also add a sense of urgency that may not have been in the picture previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果租金继续上涨，这反过来应该会提高人们放弃租赁协议并将那笔钱投入自己拥有的房产的可能性。虽然上涨的租金确实使得存下首付款变得更加困难，但上涨的租金也增加了一种紧迫感，这在之前可能并不存在。</p>
</div><p>Zillow's chief economist, Mischa Fisher, noted, &#34;The housing market is finally settling into a healthier state, with buyers and sellers starting to return. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zillow 的首席经济学家 Mischa Fisher 指出：“住房市场终于开始进入一个更健康的状态，买卖双方开始回归。买家受益于更多的库存和改善的可负担性，而卖家则看到价格稳定和更一致的需求。到 2026 年，每个群体都应该有更多的喘息空间。”</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Bad News</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>坏消息</strong></h2>
</div><p>So Zillow is looking optimistic, but a key underlying condition suggests a cause for concern. J.P. Morgan (JPM) released a study about the job market for 2026, one that ran somewhat contrary to the rosier picture from Zillow. 2025, as you likely know, was a comparatively bad time for American labor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以 Zillow 的展望是乐观的，但一个关键的潜在条件却让人担忧。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan (JPM)）发布了一项关于 2026 年就业市场的研究，这与 Zillow 的乐观预测有些相悖。正如你可能知道的，2025 年对美国劳动市场来说是一个相对糟糕的时期。</p>
</div><p>Layoffs hit all over, as the tech sector scaled back due to cost cutting or the introduction of artificial intelligence. Widespread news of layoffs generally does not engender willingness to make big purchases, and houses are one of the biggest purchases most can make. So a gun-shy labor market is not likely to be eager to sign up for a mortgage unless something clearly changes going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>裁员遍及各地，科技行业因削减成本或引入人工智能而缩减规模。裁员的广泛消息通常不会激发人们进行大额消费的意愿，而房屋是大多数人能做出的最大消费之一。因此，谨慎的劳动市场不太可能急于签署抵押贷款，除非未来有明显的变化。</p>
</div><p>The picture is not all bad news here, though. The J.P. Morgan report suggests that 2026 could feature some improvement in the labor rate in the second half of the year. A combination of tax cuts and interest rate reductions would work together to improve economic conditions. And while there are some signs of AI stepping in to cut workforce numbers, J.P. Morgan makes it clear that there &#34;…are no signs of large-scale job disruption due to AI.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这里并非全是坏消息。摩根大通的报告表明，2026 年下半年劳动率可能会有所改善。减税和降息的结合将共同改善经济状况。尽管有一些迹象表明人工智能正在削减劳动力数量，但摩根大通明确表示 “……没有迹象表明由于人工智能导致大规模的工作中断。”</p>
</div><p>The problem there, of course, is that any hope for the housing recovery depends on J.P. Morgan's predictions landing correctly. If the interest rate cuts do not hit, if the tax cuts do not go far enough, if the layoffs pick up speed…any one of those points could derail the whole process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，问题在于，住房复苏的任何希望都依赖于摩根大通的预测是否准确。如果利率削减未能实现，减税幅度不够，裁员加速……其中任何一点都可能 derail 整个过程。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is Zillow a Good Stock to Buy Now?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>现在买 Zillow 股票合适吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Z stock based on three Buys and two Holds assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 10.04% loss in its share price over the past year, the average Z price target of $90.33 per share implies 30.42% upside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>转向华尔街，分析师对 Z 股票的共识评级为适度买入，过去三个月内有三次买入和两次持有，如下图所示。在过去一年中，Z 股票的股价下跌了 10.04%，平均目标价为每股 90.33 美元，意味着有 30.42% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div>

2026 年的房地产市场将会是什么样子？