<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="667" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>每个市场参与者都在一个框架内运作，无论他们是否意识到。这个框架决定了哪些信息重要，哪些被忽视，以及在不确定性存在时如何做出决策。</p>
<p>交易者和长期投资者通常在非常不同的框架下工作。两种方法本质上并没有优劣之分，但它们解决的问题不同。对我来说，交易一直更直观，因为它始于一个现实的假设：未来是未知的。</p>
<p>长期投资者通常相信他们可以识别出新兴技术中的最终赢家。他们研究产品、管理团队、资产负债表和行业趋势，然后将这些因素向前推演。历史表明，这比看起来要困难得多。</p>
<p>在 1980 年代，投资者相信 Commodore 将主导个人计算机市场。个人计算机重塑了世界；然而，Commodore 并没有在竞争中生存下来。在 1990 年代，摩托罗拉被广泛视为移动通信的未来。手机改变了日常生活，但摩托罗拉在智能手机重新定义市场之前就失去了市场领导地位。</p>
<p>这种模式是一致的。技术在演变。竞争在加剧。早期的领导者被取代。假设一个人能够可靠地识别出在快速变化的领域中的最终赢家，这更多的是对预见能力的信心，而不是分析。</p>
<p>这不是批评。这是对信息局限性的认识。</p>
<p>准确识别长期赢家需要技术专长、对管理执行的洞察、对资本配置的理解以及对消费者行为的可靠预测。即使是大型机构也在这项任务中挣扎。个人投资者面临的挑战甚至更大。</p>
<p>交易者以不同的方式接近市场。他们不试图预测几年后哪种技术将主导。他们认识到市场在结果已知之前就不断重新定价预期。他们的目标不是对未来做出正确的判断，而是对当前发生的事情做出正确的反应。</p>
<p>这种区别很重要。</p>
<p>许多人从小就被教导投资意味着分析财务报表并识别具有吸引力价值的好公司。在实践中，这些概念是主观的。什么 qualifies 为价值是变化的。什么定义为好产品也是在演变。因此，许多长期投资者即使在价格大幅下跌时仍然坚持持有。</p>
<p>交易者在更严格的标准下运作。价格行为是最终的裁决者。被积累的股票上涨。被分配的股票下跌。财务报表存在，但它们在参与者实际如何定位自己时是次要的。</p>
<p>这就是我的收入交易者波动性指标的作用所在。</p>
<p>ITV 是为了在这个交易框架内运作而开发的。它不试图评估产品或预测行业领导地位。它测量个别股票内部波动性的行为，这也是衡量情绪通过价格表达的一种方式。当波动性超出历史上可持续的范围时，反转的条件开始形成。当这种压力释放时，价格会调整。</p>
<p>本月早些时候，宏盟集团（Omnicom Group Inc.，OMC）提供了这一过程的一个清晰示例。该指标识别出一个波动性极端，发出了潜在转变的信号。该信号并不是基于预测、收益叙述或对广告行业的看法，而是完全基于可测量的行为。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="624" height="286" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png"/></p>
<p>第二天，当波动性正常化时，该指标发出了卖出信号。该交易在一天内捕获了大约 5.5% 的收益。</p>
<p>这一结果并不是预测宏盟未来的结果，而是对情绪过度反应及其解决的反应。</p>
<p>这些是该指标旨在识别的机会类型：由定位和心理驱动的短期波动，而不是长期叙述。一天内 5.5% 的收益可能听起来并不惊人，但几次这样的收益会累积起来。</p>
<p>对于那些习惯于相信深入理解一家公司是成功交易所必需的人来说，这种框架可能会让人感到不适。但交易并不是关于信念，而是关于执行。</p>
<p>利润和损失比预测更重要。这不是愤世嫉俗，而是纪律。</p>
<p>一个新的范式并不否定创新或商业基本面。它认识到市场在结果已知之前就会基于情绪、预期和定位而波动。直接测量这些力量通常比试图超越它们更可靠。</p>
<p>这就是我交易的框架。这也是我每天依赖的指标的基础。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>这种交易优势忽视头条新闻并保护您的收益</p>
<p>解锁隐藏在市场混乱中的交易优势</p>
<p>这种微妙的波动性变化揭示了新的机会</p>

宏盟集团

<p>本文探讨了交易者和长期投资者的对比框架，强调了未来市场领袖的不可预测性。文章介绍了收入交易者波动性指标，该指标侧重于价格行为和波动性，而非长期预测。最近以宏盟集团为例，展示了该指标的有效性，通过应对波动极端而非预测未来结果，在一天内实现了 5.5% 的收益</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Every market participant operates within a framework, whether they recognize it or not. That framework determines what information matters, what gets ignored, and how decisions are made when certainty is unavailable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个市场参与者都在一个框架内运作，无论他们是否意识到。这个框架决定了哪些信息重要，哪些被忽视，以及在不确定性存在时如何做出决策。</p>
</div><p>Traders and long-term investors often work from very different frameworks. Neither approach is inherently superior, but they address different problems. For me, trading has always been more intuitive because it begins with a realistic assumption: the future is unknown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者和长期投资者通常在非常不同的框架下工作。两种方法本质上并没有优劣之分，但它们解决的问题不同。对我来说，交易一直更直观，因为它始于一个现实的假设：未来是未知的。</p>
</div><p>Long-term investors often believe they can identify the eventual winners in emerging technologies. They study products, management teams, balance sheets, and industry trends, then project those factors forward. History suggests this is far more difficult than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期投资者通常相信他们可以识别出新兴技术中的最终赢家。他们研究产品、管理团队、资产负债表和行业趋势，然后将这些因素向前推演。历史表明，这比看起来要困难得多。</p>
</div><p>In the 1980s, investors believed Commodore would dominate personal computing. Personal computers reshaped the world; however, Commodore did not survive the competition. In the 1990s, Motorola was widely viewed as the future of mobile communication. Cell phones transformed daily life, but Motorola lost its market leadership long before smartphones redefined the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1980 年代，投资者相信 Commodore 将主导个人计算机市场。个人计算机重塑了世界；然而，Commodore 并没有在竞争中生存下来。在 1990 年代，摩托罗拉被广泛视为移动通信的未来。手机改变了日常生活，但摩托罗拉在智能手机重新定义市场之前就失去了市场领导地位。</p>
</div><p>The pattern is consistent. Technology evolves. Competition intensifies. Early leaders are displaced. Assuming that one can reliably identify the ultimate winner in a rapidly changing space is less analysis than confidence in foresight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种模式是一致的。技术在演变。竞争在加剧。早期的领导者被取代。假设一个人能够可靠地识别出在快速变化的领域中的最终赢家，这更多的是对预见能力的信心，而不是分析。</p>
</div><p>That is not criticism. It is a recognition of the limits of information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是批评。这是对信息局限性的认识。</p>
</div><p>Accurately identifying long-term winners requires technical expertise, insight into management execution, an understanding of capital allocation, and reliable forecasts of consumer behavior. Even large institutions struggle with the task. Individual investors face an even steeper challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>准确识别长期赢家需要技术专长、对管理执行的洞察、对资本配置的理解以及对消费者行为的可靠预测。即使是大型机构也在这项任务中挣扎。个人投资者面临的挑战甚至更大。</p>
</div><p>Traders approach the market differently. They do not attempt to predict which technology will dominate years from now. They recognize that markets continuously reprice expectations long before outcomes are known. Their objective is not to be right about the future, but to respond correctly to what is happening now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者以不同的方式接近市场。他们不试图预测几年后哪种技术将主导。他们认识到市场在结果已知之前就不断重新定价预期。他们的目标不是对未来做出正确的判断，而是对当前发生的事情做出正确的反应。</p>
</div><p>This distinction matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种区别很重要。</p>
</div><p>Many people are taught from an early age that investing means analyzing financial statements and identifying good companies at attractive values. In practice, those concepts are subjective. What qualifies as value changes. What defines a good product evolves. As a result, many long-term investors remain committed to positions even as prices decline dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人从小就被教导投资意味着分析财务报表并识别具有吸引力价值的好公司。在实践中，这些概念是主观的。什么 qualifies 为价值是变化的。什么定义为好产品也是在演变。因此，许多长期投资者即使在价格大幅下跌时仍然坚持持有。</p>
</div><p>Traders operate under a stricter standard. Price behavior is the final arbiter. Stocks that are being accumulated rise. Stocks that are being distributed fall. Financial statements exist, but they are secondary to how participants are actually positioning themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者在更严格的标准下运作。价格行为是最终的裁决者。被积累的股票上涨。被分配的股票下跌。财务报表存在，但它们在参与者实际如何定位自己时是次要的。</p>
</div><p>This is where my Income Trader Volatility indicator fits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是我的收入交易者波动性指标的作用所在。</p>
</div><p>ITV was developed to operate within this trading framework. It does not attempt to evaluate products or forecast industry leadership. It measures how volatility behaves inside individual stocks, which is another way of measuring how emotion expresses itself through price. When volatility expands beyond what history suggests is sustainable, conditions for a reversal begin to form. When that pressure releases, price adjusts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ITV 是为了在这个交易框架内运作而开发的。它不试图评估产品或预测行业领导地位。它测量个别股票内部波动性的行为，这也是衡量情绪通过价格表达的一种方式。当波动性超出历史上可持续的范围时，反转的条件开始形成。当这种压力释放时，价格会调整。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this month, Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) provided a clear example of this process. The indicator identified a volatility extreme that signaled a potential transition. That signal was not based on a forecast, an earnings narrative, or an opinion about the advertising industry. It was based entirely on measurable behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，宏盟集团（Omnicom Group Inc.，OMC）提供了这一过程的一个清晰示例。该指标识别出一个波动性极端，发出了潜在转变的信号。该信号并不是基于预测、收益叙述或对广告行业的看法，而是完全基于可测量的行为。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png"/></p>
<p>The following day, as volatility normalized, the indicator generated a sell signal. The trade captured a gain of roughly 5.5% in one day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二天，当波动性正常化时，该指标发出了卖出信号。该交易在一天内捕获了大约 5.5% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>That outcome was not the result of predicting Omnicom’s future. It was the result of responding to an emotional overshoot and its resolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一结果并不是预测宏盟未来的结果，而是对情绪过度反应及其解决的反应。</p>
</div><p>These are the types of opportunities the indicator is designed to identify: short duration moves driven by positioning and psychology, not long-term narratives. A one-day gain of 5.5% may not sound groundbreaking, but several such gains will add up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些是该指标旨在识别的机会类型：由定位和心理驱动的短期波动，而不是长期叙述。一天内 5.5% 的收益可能听起来并不惊人，但几次这样的收益会累积起来。</p>
</div><p>This framework can feel uncomfortable for those conditioned to believe that understanding a company deeply is required to trade it successfully. But trading is not about conviction. It is about execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些习惯于相信深入理解一家公司是成功交易所必需的人来说，这种框架可能会让人感到不适。但交易并不是关于信念，而是关于执行。</p>
</div><p>Profit and loss matter more than predictions. That is not cynicism. It is discipline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润和损失比预测更重要。这不是愤世嫉俗，而是纪律。</p>
</div><p>A new paradigm does not dismiss innovation or business fundamentals. It recognizes that markets move on emotion, expectations, and positioning long before outcomes are known. Measuring those forces directly is often more reliable than trying to outthink them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个新的范式并不否定创新或商业基本面。它认识到市场在结果已知之前就会基于情绪、预期和定位而波动。直接测量这些力量通常比试图超越它们更可靠。</p>
</div><p>That is the framework I trade from. And it is the foundation of the indicator I rely on every day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是我交易的框架。这也是我每天依赖的指标的基础。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>This Trading Edge Ignores Headlines And Preserves Your Gains</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种交易优势忽视头条新闻并保护您的收益</p>
</div><p>Unlock Trading Edges Hidden Inside Market Chaos</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解锁隐藏在市场混乱中的交易优势</p>
</div><p>This Subtle Shift In Volatility Reveals New Opportunities</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种微妙的波动性变化揭示了新的机会</p>
</div>

交易者的新模式