<p>人工智能股票的持续上涨趋势最近被暂时打断，投资者对此并不太习惯。实际上，这是一种暂停，导致投资组合需要重新审视，分析师们开始关注估值模型，而不是庆祝。</p>
<p>Global X 人工智能和科技 ETF 自 11 月初以来 <strong>下跌超过 5%</strong>。这提醒市场，大型科技公司总会在某个时刻降温。现在的问题是，1 月份是否会重新开启上涨模式。</p>
<h2>主流人工智能股票陷入困境</h2>
<p>人工智能股票的下跌与技术相关性减弱或需求条件不完善无关。这一下跌只是旧市场焦虑的反映，包括巨额估值、泡沫讨论以及对大量资本投资于人工智能基础设施建设的担忧。</p>
<p>例如，Nvidia 和 Palantir，这两家最近达到 52 周高点的公司，目前股价正在下跌，因为投资者正在重新审视已有的乐观预期。</p>
<p>事实上，与数据中心扩展相关的债务水平，基于云服务提供商为提升计算能力而投入大量资金的论点，引发了争论。</p>
<p>另一方面，这次抛售似乎更像是估值的重置，而不是结构性问题，特别是因为人工智能技术正以快速的速度被越来越多的行业采纳。</p>
<h2>估值看起来不错</h2>
<p>讽刺的是，这次吓跑一些投资者的抛售，现在使得人工智能行业在某种程度上变得更具吸引力。因为，Nvidia 现在的 <strong>前瞻市盈率约为 24</strong>，显著低于纳斯达克 100 指数的平均市盈率约为 32。</p>
<p>事实上，对于一家预计明年 <strong>盈利将增加约 60%</strong> 的公司来说，这一情况令人惊讶，如果对人工智能基础设施的支出继续加速，这一数字可能会更高。</p>
<p><strong>根据高盛的预测</strong>，超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年前投资 5270 亿美元，较 2025 年的预测增加 34%。更有趣的是，这一估计已经多次修订，这表明人工智能工作负载转化为经济价值的速度之快，而不仅仅是未兑现的承诺。</p>
<h2>人工智能展现出其生产力</h2>
<p>持续上升的支出预测有一个原因，那就是人工智能正在产生切实的成果。Palantir 的人工智能平台现在成为了公司在拥抱人工智能与相信其潜力之间的革命性转变的一个例子。</p>
<p>用户现在报告的任务在几分钟内完成，而以前需要几周才能完成，甚至那些拖延数天的乏味程序现在几乎瞬间就能完成。<strong>IDC 预测</strong>，每花费一美元在人工智能上，可能会创造近五美元的经济价值，这是任何企业或投资者都无法忽视的乘数效应。</p>
<p><strong>根据 IDC 的说法，</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“每个采用者在人工智能解决方案和服务上的新支出预计将在全球经济中产生额外的 4.9 美元。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这正是 Palantir 的情况。该公司在客户数量上显现出明显的回报，<strong>在 2025 年第三季度年增长了 45%</strong>。与此同时，其合同赢得的数量远远超过了报告的收入。</p>
<p>这一差异表明，需求大于公司的交付能力，这最终为快速增长创造了有利环境，当实施最终赶上时。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的芯片全力运转</h2>
<p>计算是所有人工智能道路的最终目的地，而 Nvidia 仍然处于计算生态系统的中心。在该公司 11 月的财报电话会议上，首席财务官 Colette Kress <strong>表示</strong>，对人工智能基础设施的需求不仅达到了预期，而且超出了预期，数据中心中的多个 GPU 正在全力运转。</p>
<p>从训练极大型模型到基于推理进行预测，客户们并没有离开，他们仍然排队等待获取 <strong>Nvidia 芯片</strong>。</p>
<p>Nvidia 认为，到本世纪末，全球对人工智能基础设施的支出可能会看到 40% 的年复合增长率，最终 <strong>在 2030 年达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元</strong>。</p>
<p>这种预测可能是 Nvidia 盈利预期不断上升的原因之一，尽管短期内股价存在一些不稳定性。</p>
<h2>一月会是转折点吗？</h2>
<p>一月可能是一个转折点，因为一些数据即将公布。关键人工智能基础设施公司的财报，如 Lam Research 和 ASML，将于 1 月 28 日发布，这两家公司被视为整个人工智能供应链健康状况的指标。</p>
<p>最近，<strong>Lam Research 宣布</strong> 其收入增长了 27.5%，管理层强调与人工智能相关的增长是未来数十亿美元的机会。</p>
<p>另一方面，ASML 以其超出预期的订单让市场感到惊讶，强调了对先进芯片制造设备的持续需求。</p>
<p>如果这两家公司都能提供良好的预测，可能会再次恢复整个人工智能行业的信心。</p>
<h2>总结</h2>
<p>过去三年，人工智能股票获得了显著的高度，甚至重塑了市场，其中 Nvidia 和 Palantir 是赢家之一。与此同时，波动性无疑将是这一旅程的一部分。</p>
<p>然而，黑石集团和 Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 对人工智能在 2026 年将成为市场的核心驱动力持乐观态度。</p>
<p>如果一月份的财报显示盈利，这将表明基础设施的需求仍然很高，并且生产力确实在提高。这意味着此次抛售可能不会被解读为警告信号，而是作为下一次上涨前的调整。</p>
<p>因此，对于投资者来说，年初更重要的不是追逐炒作，而是提前获得正确的投资位置。</p>

PLTR

<p>最近人工智能股票上涨趋势的暂停导致了估值的重置，而不是结构性问题。尽管自 11 月以来，Global X 人工智能和技术 ETF 下跌了 5%，但人工智能技术的采用仍在持续增长。Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股价正在下跌，但它们的估值现在更具吸引力。预计 1 月份可能会重新点燃人工智能股票的反弹，因为对人工智能基础设施的支出预计将显著增加，Nvidia 预测到 2030 年全球人工智能基础设施支出的年均复合增长率将达到 40%</p>

<p>The unstoppable upward trend of artificial intelligence stocks has been broken recently by a pause, which the investors are not quite used to. Actually, it was a kind of a pause that caused portfolios to double-check and analysts to get Valuation models instead of celebrating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能股票的持续上涨趋势最近被暂时打断，投资者对此并不太习惯。实际上，这是一种暂停，导致投资组合需要重新审视，分析师们开始关注估值模型，而不是庆祝。</p>
</div><p>The Global X Artificial Intelligence and Technology ETF has <strong>come down more than 5%</strong> since the beginning of November. This is a reminder for the market that big tech names have to cool down at some point. Now, the question is whether January could flip the switch back to rally mode or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Global X 人工智能和科技 ETF 自 11 月初以来 <strong>下跌超过 5%</strong>。这提醒市场，大型科技公司总会在某个时刻降温。现在的问题是，1 月份是否会重新开启上涨模式。</p>
</div><h2>Mainstream AI Stocks Got Stuck</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>主流人工智能股票陷入困境</h2>
</div><p>The decline in AI stocks is not linked to weakening technology relevance or imperfect demand conditions. The dip is just a reflection of old market anxieties, which are huge valuations, bubble talks, and worries about the large amount of capital that is being invested in the construction of AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能股票的下跌与技术相关性减弱或需求条件不完善无关。这一下跌只是旧市场焦虑的反映，包括巨额估值、泡沫讨论以及对大量资本投资于人工智能基础设施建设的担忧。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Nvidia and Palantir, two of the most recent 52-week-high companies, are currently experiencing falling stock prices, as the investors are reviewing how much optimism is already anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Nvidia 和 Palantir，这两家最近达到 52 周高点的公司，目前股价正在下跌，因为投资者正在重新审视已有的乐观预期。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the debt levels that are related to data center expansions that are backed with an argument that the cloud providers are contributing a considerable sum to enhance the computing power, has led to a debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，与数据中心扩展相关的债务水平，基于云服务提供商为提升计算能力而投入大量资金的论点，引发了争论。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the sell-off seems to be more like a valuation reset than a structural problem, specifically since the AI technology just keeps on being adopted by more and more industries at a fast rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，这次抛售似乎更像是估值的重置，而不是结构性问题，特别是因为人工智能技术正以快速的速度被越来越多的行业采纳。</p>
</div><h2>Valuations Looks Good</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值看起来不错</h2>
</div><p>It is ironic that the sell-off that scared off some investors has now made the AI sector somehow more appealing. As, Nvidia now has a <strong>forward P/E ratio of about 24</strong>, which is significantly lower than the Nasdaq-100’s average ratio of about 32.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讽刺的是，这次吓跑一些投资者的抛售，现在使得人工智能行业在某种程度上变得更具吸引力。因为，Nvidia 现在的 <strong>前瞻市盈率约为 24</strong>，显著低于纳斯达克 100 指数的平均市盈率约为 32。</p>
</div><p>In fact, this is surprising for a company that is anticipated to earn <strong>approximately 60%</strong> more next year, and the figure may go higher if spending on AI infrastructure continues to speed up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，对于一家预计明年 <strong>盈利将增加约 60%</strong> 的公司来说，这一情况令人惊讶，如果对人工智能基础设施的支出继续加速，这一数字可能会更高。</p>
</div><p><strong>As per Goldman Sachs</strong>, the hyperscalers will invest $527 billion, 34% more than projected for 2025, in data center infrastructure by 2026. What is even more interesting is that this estimate has been revised again and again, which is an indication of how fast AI workloads are converting into economic value and not just remaining to be unfulfilled promises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>根据高盛的预测</strong>，超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年前投资 5270 亿美元，较 2025 年的预测增加 34%。更有趣的是，这一估计已经多次修订，这表明人工智能工作负载转化为经济价值的速度之快，而不仅仅是未兑现的承诺。</p>
</div><h2>Artificial Intelligence Is Showing Its Productivity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能展现出其生产力</h2>
</div><p>The ongoing rise in spending forecasts is due to one reason, which is that AI is producing tangible results. Palantir’s AI platform is now like an example of bringing in the revolutionary shift between companies embracing AI and those who believe in its potential one day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续上升的支出预测有一个原因，那就是人工智能正在产生切实的成果。Palantir 的人工智能平台现在成为了公司在拥抱人工智能与相信其潜力之间的革命性转变的一个例子。</p>
</div><p>The users now report tasks in minutes that used to take them weeks to complete, and even the most dull procedures that would drag on for days are now being done almost instantly. <strong>IDC predicts that</strong> every dollar spent on AI is likely to result in the creation of nearly five dollars of economic value, which is a multiplier that no business or investor can afford to overlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>用户现在报告的任务在几分钟内完成，而以前需要几周才能完成，甚至那些拖延数天的乏味程序现在几乎瞬间就能完成。<strong>IDC 预测</strong>，每花费一美元在人工智能上，可能会创造近五美元的经济价值，这是任何企业或投资者都无法忽视的乘数效应。</p>
</div><p><strong>As per IDC</strong>,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>根据 IDC 的说法，</strong></p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“every new dollar spent on AI solutions and services by adopters is expected to generate an additional $4.9 in the global economy”.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“每个采用者在人工智能解决方案和服务上的新支出预计将在全球经济中产生额外的 4.9 美元。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This is the case with Palantir. The company is experiencing an evident payoff in customer numbers, which <strong>increased by 45%</strong> annually in Q3 2025. Meanwhile, its contract wins have increased much more than the reported revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是 Palantir 的情况。该公司在客户数量上显现出明显的回报，<strong>在 2025 年第三季度年增长了 45%</strong>。与此同时，其合同赢得的数量远远超过了报告的收入。</p>
</div><p>This difference indicates that the demand is greater than the company’s capability to deliver, which is ultimately creating a favorable environment for rushed growth when the implementation finally catches up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一差异表明，需求大于公司的交付能力，这最终为快速增长创造了有利环境，当实施最终赶上时。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia’s Chips in Full Power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的芯片全力运转</h2>
</div><p>Compute is the final destination of all AI roads and Nvidia is still in the middle of the compute ecosystem. During the November earnings call of the company, the Chief Financial Officer, Colette Kress, <strong>expressed that</strong> the need for AI infrastructure has not only matched, but has also gone beyond the expectations with multiple GPUs in the data centers operating at full capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>计算是所有人工智能道路的最终目的地，而 Nvidia 仍然处于计算生态系统的中心。在该公司 11 月的财报电话会议上，首席财务官 Colette Kress <strong>表示</strong>，对人工智能基础设施的需求不仅达到了预期，而且超出了预期，数据中心中的多个 GPU 正在全力运转。</p>
</div><p>From training extremely large models to making predictions based on inference, customers have not yet gone away and they still line up to get <strong>Nvidia chips</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从训练极大型模型到基于推理进行预测，客户们并没有离开，他们仍然排队等待获取 <strong>Nvidia 芯片</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia believes that, by the end of the decade, global spending on AI infrastructure could see a compound annual growth rate of 40%, which will eventually <strong>reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion</strong> by the year 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 认为，到本世纪末，全球对人工智能基础设施的支出可能会看到 40% 的年复合增长率，最终 <strong>在 2030 年达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>This kind of forecast might be one reason that earnings estimates for Nvidia are constantly rising higher, even though there are some instabilities in the share price in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种预测可能是 Nvidia 盈利预期不断上升的原因之一，尽管短期内股价存在一些不稳定性。</p>
</div><h2>Will January be a Turning Point?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一月会是转折点吗？</h2>
</div><p>January can be a turning point because some data facts are going to be presented soon. Reports of earnings from companies that are key AI infrastructure players such as Lam Research and ASML, are due on January 28, and these two firms are regarded as an indication of health of the entire AI supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一月可能是一个转折点，因为一些数据即将公布。关键人工智能基础设施公司的财报，如 Lam Research 和 ASML，将于 1 月 28 日发布，这两家公司被视为整个人工智能供应链健康状况的指标。</p>
</div><p>Recently, <strong>Lam Research announced</strong> a rise of 27.5% in its revenue and the management highlighted the AI-related growth as a multi-billion dollar opportunity in the future years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，<strong>Lam Research 宣布</strong> 其收入增长了 27.5%，管理层强调与人工智能相关的增长是未来数十亿美元的机会。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, ASML caught the market by surprise with its stronger than expected bookings, which emphasized the ongoing demand for the advanced chip manufacturing equipment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，ASML 以其超出预期的订单让市场感到惊讶，强调了对先进芯片制造设备的持续需求。</p>
</div><p>If both companies present good forecasts, it may again restore the confidence of the whole AI industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这两家公司都能提供良好的预测，可能会再次恢复整个人工智能行业的信心。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>总结</h2>
</div><p>The last three years have seen AI stocks gaining remarkable heights and even reshaping the market, where Nvidia and Palantir have been among the winners. In the meantime, volatility is definitely going to be a part of the journey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去三年，人工智能股票获得了显著的高度，甚至重塑了市场，其中 Nvidia 和 Palantir 是赢家之一。与此同时，波动性无疑将是这一旅程的一部分。</p>
</div><p>However, both BlackRock and Wedbush’s Dan Ives are optimistic that AI will be the central driver of the market going into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，黑石集团和 Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 对人工智能在 2026 年将成为市场的核心驱动力持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>If the January earnings report profit, it will indicate that the demand for infrastructure is still high and there is a real increase in productivity. This means that then the sell-off may be interpreted not as a warning sign, but as a reset before the next upward move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果一月份的财报显示盈利，这将表明基础设施的需求仍然很高，并且生产力确实在提高。这意味着此次抛售可能不会被解读为警告信号，而是作为下一次上涨前的调整。</p>
</div><p>Thus, for investors, the beginning of the year is less about chasing the hype and more about getting the right position moving ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，对于投资者来说，年初更重要的不是追逐炒作，而是提前获得正确的投资位置。</p>
</div>

Could January Be the Launchpad for the Next AI Stock Surge?

- 人工智能股票近期出现回调，全球 X 人工智能和科技 ETF 自 11 月以来下跌超 5%。
- 投资者重新评估了高估值和市场背负的繁荣忧虑，最终使 AI 行业展现吸引力。
- 如果 1 月份关键会上报盈利，可能重塑市场信心，推动基础设施需求。

一月份会成为下一波 AI 股票上涨的起点吗？