<p>股票年末反弹</p><p>黄金和白银创下历史新高，其他贵金属继续上涨</p><p>美元承压，投资者考虑美国利率</p><p>日元回暖但仍显脆弱，干预担忧依然存在</p><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p><p>新加坡，12 月 26 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市在周五上涨至六周来的最高点，贵金属的强劲反弹没有减弱的迹象，投资者希望在年末以高点收官，而疲软的日元则使干预风险依然存在。</p><p>周五，澳大利亚、香港和大部分欧洲市场休市，流动性预计将较低。尽管如此，投资者仍在尝试年末反弹，本周风险偏好有所回升。</p><p>日本的东证指数（.TOPX）攀升至历史新高，最后上涨 0.5%。韩国基准指数（.KS11）上涨 0.6%，年内涨幅达到 72%，成为今年全球表现最佳的主要股市。</p><p>中国的蓝筹股指数（.CSI300）上涨 0.27%，预计年内涨幅达到 18%，是自 2020 年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。</p><p>这推动 MSCI 亚太地区股票的广泛指数（.MIAP00000PUS）升至自 11 月 14 日以来的最高水平。该指数最后上涨 0.4%，今年迄今已上涨 25%。</p><p>除了股票，贵金属也备受关注，现货白银（XAG=）在周五上涨超过 4%，创下历史新高，而黄金（XAU=）也达到了历史最高点，最后报价为每盎司 4,503.39 美元。</p><p>MUFG 的商品分析师金秀珍表示，这一反弹得益于中央银行的大量购买、对黄金 ETF 的强劲流入，以及投资者对货币贬值和全球债务上升的担忧。</p><p>今年黄金价格飙升超过 71%，有望实现自 1979 年以来最强劲的年度涨幅，而白银年内上涨 158%。</p><p>“随着主要银行预测到 2026 年将进一步上涨，实物需求的强劲和持续的地缘政治及货币不确定性表明贵金属的反弹可能会继续，” 金秀珍在一份报告中表示。</p><h3>美元的十二月低迷</h3><p>在新年即将来临之际，投资者关注美国联邦储备委员会可能何时进一步降息以及降息幅度，交易员预计 2026 年将至少有两次降息，尽管他们不认为美联储会在 6 月之前采取行动。</p><p>中央银行本身预计明年将再降息一次，但分歧的美联储让投资者对美国政策前景感到紧张。</p><p>投资者还在等待特朗普总统提名新的美联储主席以替代杰罗姆·鲍威尔，后者的任期将在 5 月结束，特朗普的任何决定都可能在未来一周内影响市场。</p><p>因此，美元承压，欧元（EUR=）、英镑（GBP=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）均升至近期高点。</p><p>美元指数（=USD）衡量美元对六种竞争货币的表现，预计本周将下跌 0.8%，是自 7 月以来最弱的周表现。周五在亚洲交易时段保持在 97.935。</p><p>日元（JPY=）略微走弱，报 156.23 美元，但有望实现 1% 的周涨幅，为自 9 月底以来最大周涨幅，此前东京发出强烈的口头警告，使干预风险依然存在。</p><p>尽管日本央行上周进行了预先通知的加息，但市场解读行长植田和男的言论，认为央行不会急于进一步加息，日元仍然疲软。</p><p>分析师和熟悉央行思路的消息人士告诉路透社，模糊的沟通可能旨在为加息的确切时机保留灵活性，并掩盖日本央行继续提高借贷成本的决心。</p><p>尽管如此，投资者仍对东京的官方买入日元保持警惕，特别是在年末交易量减少的情况下，分析师表示这是当局采取行动的良机。</p><p>周五，日本基准国债小幅上涨，因为对债务发行受限的预期帮助收益率从 26 年来的高点回落，首相高市早苗试图缓解市场对其扩张性财政政策的担忧。</p>

<p>亚洲股市达到六周来的最高点，受到年末反弹和贵金属强劲上涨的推动。日本的东证指数和韩国基准指数均出现显著上涨。黄金和白银等贵金属创下历史新高，受到中央银行购入和投资者对货币贬值的担忧的支持。美元走弱，日元略有回升。投资者关注美国联邦储备委员会可能的降息以及新任美联储主席的提名。日本政府债券在对债务发行保持克制的预期下小幅上涨</p>

<p>Stocks stage year-end rally</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票年末反弹</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver at record highs, other precious metals build on gains</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和白银创下历史新高，其他贵金属继续上涨</p>
</div><p>Dollar on the back foot as investors consider US rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元承压，投资者考虑美国利率</p>
</div><p>Yen back from the brink but remains frail, intervention worries linger</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元回暖但仍显脆弱，干预担忧依然存在</p>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose to their highest in six weeks on Friday and a blistering rally in precious metals showed no signs of tempering as investors sought to close out the year on a high while a softer yen kept intervention risk in the fray.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，12 月 26 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市在周五上涨至六周来的最高点，贵金属的强劲反弹没有减弱的迹象，投资者希望在年末以高点收官，而疲软的日元则使干预风险依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Markets in Australia, Hong Kong and most of Europe are closed on Friday, with liquidity expected to be thin. Still, investors are attempting a year-end rally, with risk appetite perking up this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，澳大利亚、香港和大部分欧洲市场休市，流动性预计将较低。尽管如此，投资者仍在尝试年末反弹，本周风险偏好有所回升。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s Topix (.TOPX) climbed to a record high and was last up 0.5%. South Korea’s benchmark index (.KS11) rose 0.6%, taking its annual gain to 72% and making it the best-performing major stock market in the world this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的东证指数（.TOPX）攀升至历史新高，最后上涨 0.5%。韩国基准指数（.KS11）上涨 0.6%，年内涨幅达到 72%，成为今年全球表现最佳的主要股市。</p>
</div><p>China’s blue-chip stock index (.CSI300) was 0.27% higher, on pace to clock an 18% gain for the year, its strongest annual surge since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的蓝筹股指数（.CSI300）上涨 0.27%，预计年内涨幅达到 18%，是自 2020 年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>That pushed MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) to its highest level since November 14. The index was last up 0.4% and has gained 25% so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这推动 MSCI 亚太地区股票的广泛指数（.MIAP00000PUS）升至自 11 月 14 日以来的最高水平。该指数最后上涨 0.4%，今年迄今已上涨 25%。</p>
</div><p>Beyond stocks, precious metals are in the spotlight with spot silver (XAG=) surging over 4% to a record high on Friday, while gold (XAU=) also hit a record peak, last fetching $4,503.39 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了股票，贵金属也备受关注，现货白银（XAG=）在周五上涨超过 4%，创下历史新高，而黄金（XAU=）也达到了历史最高点，最后报价为每盎司 4,503.39 美元。</p>
</div><p>Soojin Kim, commodities analyst at MUFG, said the rally has been supported by heavy central bank purchases, strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, and investor concerns over currency debasement and rising global debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MUFG 的商品分析师金秀珍表示，这一反弹得益于中央银行的大量购买、对黄金 ETF 的强劲流入，以及投资者对货币贬值和全球债务上升的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Gold has soared over 71% this year, on pace for its strongest annual gain since 1979, while silver is up 158% for the year. (GOL/)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年黄金价格飙升超过 71%，有望实现自 1979 年以来最强劲的年度涨幅，而白银年内上涨 158%。</p>
</div><p>“With major banks forecasting further gains into 2026, the strength of physical demand and persistent geopolitical and monetary uncertainties suggest the precious metals rally could continue,” Kim said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着主要银行预测到 2026 年将进一步上涨，实物需求的强劲和持续的地缘政治及货币不确定性表明贵金属的反弹可能会继续，” 金秀珍在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><h3>DOLLAR’S DECEMBER BLUES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元的十二月低迷</h3>
</div><p>Heading into the new year, investors are focused on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might further cut interest rates and by how much, with traders pricing in at least two cuts in 2026, although they do not expect the Fed to move before June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新年即将来临之际，投资者关注美国联邦储备委员会可能何时进一步降息以及降息幅度，交易员预计 2026 年将至少有两次降息，尽管他们不认为美联储会在 6 月之前采取行动。</p>
</div><p>The central bank itself has projected one more cut next year but a divided Fed has left investors on edge about the U.S. policy outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行本身预计明年将再降息一次，但分歧的美联储让投资者对美国政策前景感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>Investors are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, and any inkling of Trump’s decision could sway markets in the coming week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还在等待特朗普总统提名新的美联储主席以替代杰罗姆·鲍威尔，后者的任期将在 5 月结束，特朗普的任何决定都可能在未来一周内影响市场。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar has been under pressure as a result, pushing the euro (EUR=) , sterling (GBP=) and the Swiss franc (CHF=) to recent highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，美元承压，欧元（EUR=）、英镑（GBP=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）均升至近期高点。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the dollar against six rivals, was poised for a 0.8% drop for the week, its weakest weekly performance since July. It was steady at 97.935 in Asian hours on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数（=USD）衡量美元对六种竞争货币的表现，预计本周将下跌 0.8%，是自 7 月以来最弱的周表现。周五在亚洲交易时段保持在 97.935。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen (JPY=) was a shade weaker at 156.23 per U.S. dollar but on course for a 1% weekly rise, its biggest weekly gain since the end of September, after strong bouts of verbal warnings from Tokyo that have left intervention risks on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元（JPY=）略微走弱，报 156.23 美元，但有望实现 1% 的周涨幅，为自 9 月底以来最大周涨幅，此前东京发出强烈的口头警告，使干预风险依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The yen has weakened despite the Bank of Japan delivering a well-telegraphed rate hike last week as markets interpreted comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda to suggest the central bank will not rush further rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管日本央行上周进行了预先通知的加息，但市场解读行长植田和男的言论，认为央行不会急于进一步加息，日元仍然疲软。</p>
</div><p>Analysts and sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking told Reuters the ambiguous communication is likely aimed at leaving flexibility on the exact rate-hike timing and belies the BOJ’s resolve to keep pushing up borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师和熟悉央行思路的消息人士告诉路透社，模糊的沟通可能旨在为加息的确切时机保留灵活性，并掩盖日本央行继续提高借贷成本的决心。</p>
</div><p>Still, investors are vigilant to official yen-buying from Tokyo, particularly as trading volumes thin towards the year-end, which analysts say is an opportune time for authorities to take action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，投资者仍对东京的官方买入日元保持警惕，特别是在年末交易量减少的情况下，分析师表示这是当局采取行动的良机。</p>
</div><p>Benchmark Japanese government bonds gained slightly on Friday as expectations for restrained debt issuance helped yields retreat from a 26-year peak as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought to ease market concerns over her expansionary fiscal policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，日本基准国债小幅上涨，因为对债务发行受限的预期帮助收益率从 26 年来的高点回落，首相高市早苗试图缓解市场对其扩张性财政政策的担忧。</p>
</div>

全球市场 - 亚洲股市升至六周高位；贵金属表现强劲