<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png"/></p>
<p>俄罗斯卢布在今年表现出色，即使原油和天然气价格大幅下跌。美元/卢布汇率交易在 77.20，较去年 11 月的最高点下跌了 35%。</p>
<h2>俄罗斯卢布为何飙升</h2>
<p>在唐纳德·特朗普于 2024 年当选后，俄罗斯卢布飙升，因为投资者仍然希望他能谈判达成结束乌克兰战争的协议。</p>
<p>尽管战争仍在继续，三方仍在进行谈判，预计到 2026 年底停火的可能性已上升至 46%。</p>
<p>任何协议都将包含解除美国对俄罗斯制裁的条款，这一举措将有利于经济。</p>
<p>美元/卢布汇率的下跌也与俄罗斯中央银行的行动有关，该行维持的利率高于其他国家，创造了良好的套利交易机会。</p>
<p>在最近一次会议上，银行将利率削减至 16%，因为通胀降至 5.8%。因此，外汇交易者借入便宜的美元并投资于高收益的卢布已成为常态。</p>
<p>然而，主要挑战在于，由于制裁，过去几年投资俄罗斯资产变得困难。一旦制裁结束，这种困难可能会得到缓解。</p>
<p>由于制裁，俄罗斯对外币的需求也减少，这使得俄罗斯卢布上涨。</p>
<p>此外，中央银行通过销售人民币和黄金来替代失去的能源收入，继续出售外币。最近数据显示，俄罗斯在今年前 11 个月的石油和天然气收入下降了超过 20%。</p>
<h2>美元贬值</h2>
<p>美元/卢布汇率的下降也与美元贬值有关。在 1 月份达到 110 美元的峰值后，美元指数暴跌至 96 美元，然后稳定在 100 美元。</p>
<p>美元指数在未来几个月可能会继续下跌。首先，银行暗示将在 2026 年降息，继续几个月前开始的周期。</p>
<p>降息的幅度可能会更大，因为唐纳德·特朗普暗示他只会任命准备降息的美联储官员。一个激进的鸽派美联储将对美元产生看跌影响。</p>
<h2>美元/卢布技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>美元/卢布图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>日线图显示，美元/卢布汇率在过去几个月承压。从 113.75 的双顶点下跌至当前的 77.20。</p>
<p>最近，该货币对从 85.91 的高点下跌至当前的 77.20。它一直保持在 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线以下。</p>
<p>该货币对还在 80.65 形成了一个小的双顶形态。因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，卖方瞄准年初至今的低点 74。随着投资者预期乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的协议，这一回撤将加速。</p>
<p>美元/卢布预测：俄罗斯卢布飙升后接下来会怎样？首发于 Invezz</p>

<p>俄罗斯卢布大幅上涨，美元对卢布的汇率降至 77.20，比去年 11 月的峰值下降了 35%。这一上涨归因于对乌克兰停火的希望、高企的俄罗斯利率以及减少的美元需求。卢布的强势还得益于俄罗斯的外汇销售和减少的石油与天然气收入。预计美元对卢布的汇率将继续下跌，可能会达到年内最低点 74</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png"/></p>
<p>The Russian ruble has had a great performance this year, even as crude oil and natural gas plunged. The USD/RUB exchange rate was trading at 77.20, down by 35% from its highest point in November last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>俄罗斯卢布在今年表现出色，即使原油和天然气价格大幅下跌。美元/卢布汇率交易在 77.20，较去年 11 月的最高点下跌了 35%。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Russian ruble soared</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>俄罗斯卢布为何飙升</h2>
</div><p>The Russian ruble soared after Donald Trump’s election in 2024 as investors remained hopeful that he would negotiate a deal to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在唐纳德·特朗普于 2024 年当选后，俄罗斯卢布飙升，因为投资者仍然希望他能谈判达成结束乌克兰战争的协议。</p>
</div><p>While the war is still going on, the three sides have continued their negotiations, and odds of a ceasefire by the end of 2026 have jumped to 46% on Polymarket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管战争仍在继续，三方仍在进行谈判，预计到 2026 年底停火的可能性已上升至 46%。</p>
</div><p>Any deal will have a provision to remove the sanctions that the United States has on Russia, a move that will benefit the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何协议都将包含解除美国对俄罗斯制裁的条款，这一举措将有利于经济。</p>
</div><p>The USD/RUB has also plunged because of the actions by the Russian Central Bank, which has maintained higher interest rates than other countries, creating a good carry trade opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/卢布汇率的下跌也与俄罗斯中央银行的行动有关，该行维持的利率高于其他国家，创造了良好的套利交易机会。</p>
</div><p>The bank slashed rates to 16% in the last meeting as inflation softened to 5.8%. As such, it has become common for forex traders to borrow cheap US dollars and invest in the high-yielding ruble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近一次会议上，银行将利率削减至 16%，因为通胀降至 5.8%。因此，外汇交易者借入便宜的美元并投资于高收益的卢布已成为常态。</p>
</div><p>The main challenge, however, is that investing in Russian assets has become difficult in the past few years because of the sanctions. This difficulty could be eased once sanctions end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，主要挑战在于，由于制裁，过去几年投资俄罗斯资产变得困难。一旦制裁结束，这种困难可能会得到缓解。</p>
</div><p>The Russian ruble has also jumped because of the lack of demand for foreign currency in Russia because of the sanctions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于制裁，俄罗斯对外币的需求也减少，这使得俄罗斯卢布上涨。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the central bank has continued to sell foreign currency through its yuan and gold sales to replace lost energy revenues. Recent data show that oil and gas revenue in Russia dropped by over 20% in the first 11 months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，中央银行通过销售人民币和黄金来替代失去的能源收入，继续出售外币。最近数据显示，俄罗斯在今年前 11 个月的石油和天然气收入下降了超过 20%。</p>
</div><h2>US dollar decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元贬值</h2>
</div><p>The USD/RUB exchange rate decline was also due to the US dollar decline <strong>.</strong> After peaking at $110 in January, the US dollar index tumbled to $96 before stabilizing at $100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/卢布汇率的下降也与美元贬值有关。在 1 月份达到 110 美元的峰值后，美元指数暴跌至 96 美元，然后稳定在 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>There are chances that the US dollar index will continue with its downward trend in the coming months. For one, the bank has hinted that it will cut interest rates once in 2026, continuing a cycle that started a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数在未来几个月可能会继续下跌。首先，银行暗示将在 2026 年降息，继续几个月前开始的周期。</p>
</div><p>The rate cuts will likely be more as Donald Trump has hinted that he will only appoint a Fed official ready to cut rates. An aggressively dovish Fed will be bearish for the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息的幅度可能会更大，因为唐纳德·特朗普暗示他只会任命准备降息的美联储官员。一个激进的鸽派美联储将对美元产生看跌影响。</p>
</div><h2>USD/RUB technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/卢布技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>USDRUB chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/卢布图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the USD/RUB exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It plunged from the double-top point at 113.75 to the current 77.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，美元/卢布汇率在过去几个月承压。从 113.75 的双顶点下跌至当前的 77.20。</p>
</div><p>Most recently, the pair moved from a high of 85.91 to the current 77.20. It has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，该货币对从 85.91 的高点下跌至当前的 77.20。它一直保持在 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线以下。</p>
</div><p>The pair also formed a small double-top pattern at 80.65. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continue falling as sellers target the year-to-date low of 74. This retreat will accelerate as investors anticipate the deal between Ukraine and Russia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对还在 80.65 形成了一个小的双顶形态。因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，卖方瞄准年初至今的低点 74。随着投资者预期乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的协议，这一回撤将加速。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/RUB forecast: What next after the Russian ruble surge? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/卢布预测：俄罗斯卢布飙升后接下来会怎样？首发于 Invezz</p>
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美元兑卢布的预测：在俄罗斯卢布大幅上涨之后，接下来会发生什么？