<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-23-2025-03_42_39-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-23-2025-03_42_39-PM.png"/></p>
<p>欧洲以积极的态势进入 2026 年。通胀得到控制，利率停止变动，最糟糕的衰退担忧已经消退。</p>
<p>但增长依然微薄、不均匀，且高度依赖资金实际支出的位置，而不是任何宏观杠杆的作用。</p>
<p>简单的解释已经不再适用。</p>
<p>随着货币政策不再那么紧缩，能源价格得到控制，欧洲现在必须专注于真正能帮助其在全球排名中上升的因素。</p>
<h2>稳定的欧洲央行但没有安全网</h2>
<p>欧洲央行已表明降息周期最有可能结束。存款利率在经历八次降息后维持在 2%。</p>
<p>官员们明确表示加息不在考虑之中，但进一步放松政策需要通胀明显且持续低于目标。</p>
<p>市场预计利率将在 2027 年之前大致保持不变。</p>
<p>这改变了增长的性质。货币政策不再推动需求，也不再抑制需求。</p>
<p>欧洲央行已将政策保持在中立状态，并暂时退居幕后。</p>
<p>通胀支持了这一立场。</p>
<p>预计 2026 年和 2027 年，欧元区的整体通胀将接近 2%，主要是因为能源价格不再引发大幅波动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-218.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="638" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-218.png"/></p>
<p>来源：彭博社</p>
<p>剩余的压力主要集中在服务和工资上，即使在这些领域，动能也在减弱。</p>
<p>欧洲央行自己的预测显示，通胀将在目标以下略微下降，然后在本十年晚些时候回升至 2%。</p>
<p>这为欧洲带来了一个罕见的状态。价格和利率稳定。</p>
<p>这听起来乏味，但消除了借口。疲弱的增长不再能归咎于紧缩政策。</p>
<h2>增长温和但不脆弱</h2>
<p>大多数预测显示，2026 年欧元区的增长约为 1.1-1.2%，而 2027 年接近 1.4%。这并不令人印象深刻，但却是持久的。</p>
<p>西班牙在大型经济体中表现突出。</p>
<p>2026 年超过 2% 的增长得益于就业创造、实际工资增长和欧盟支持的投资。</p>
<p>德国正在改善，经过一段时间的低迷后，预计 2026 年增长将接近 1%，并在 2027 年进一步上升。法国和意大利的增长则接近 1% 或更低。</p>
<p>剔除爱尔兰波动较大的国民账户，欧元区看起来增长缓慢但稳定。消费不再萎缩。信贷增长正在稳定。投资开始复苏。</p>
<p>关键点在于，欧洲并不缺乏需求，但缺乏动能。动能现在取决于资本流向何处，以及项目从批准到现实的推进速度。</p>
<h2>投资是明年的真正故事</h2>
<p>欧盟前景中最重要的因素是投资作为增长驱动因素的回归。</p>
<p>这一点在公共和私人数据中都可见一斑。</p>
<p>欧洲央行官员公开表示，最近的上行意外来自投资而非消费。</p>
<p>经济合作与发展组织的调查显示，与人工智能相关的支出急剧上升。欧洲各公司的指导意见也指向同一方向。</p>
<p>但欧洲的人工智能故事与美国的不同。欧盟并未捕获大部分软件收益。</p>
<p>它提供的是物理基础设施。这些包括数据中心、电力系统、电缆、自动化和能够承载更高负荷的建筑。</p>
<p>这就是为什么与电气化和电力基础设施相关的工业公司订单量强劲的原因。尽管 GDP 增长几乎没有变化，但对欧洲工业的盈利预期在 2026 年大幅上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-219.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="611" height="182" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-219.png"/></p>
<p>来源：彭博社</p>
<p>这一投资周期不如消费科技那样引人注目，但更具持续性。数据中心没有电力是无法运作的。</p>
<p>电网不会在一夜之间扩展。一旦启动，这些项目将持续多年。</p>
<h2>财政政策将决定谁胜谁负</h2>
<p>随着欧洲央行保持观望，财政政策已成为主要杠杆。在这里，欧洲显得支离破碎。</p>
<p>德国的潜在影响最大。5000 亿欧元的基础设施计划和不断上升的国防支出可能会提升整个地区的增长。</p>
<p>但速度是制约因素。缓慢的审批、薄弱的项目管道和劳动力短缺削弱了效果。</p>
<p>德国的复苏将是真实的，但渐进的。</p>
<p>南欧则呈现出不同的模式。</p>
<p>西班牙受益于早期的改革和强劲的劳动力市场动态。意大利比许多同行更快地吸收了欧盟复苏资金，但实际支出仍滞后于分配。</p>
<p>法国面临更紧的预算约束和政治噪音，这限制了上行空间。</p>
<p>在欧盟层面，复苏资金仍然具有支持作用，但其峰值影响即将到来。</p>
<p>2027 年及以后的问题是，什么将取而代之。将欧盟资金视为通往私人投资的桥梁的国家将表现优于那些将其视为替代品的国家。</p>
<p>那些将其视为替代品的国家将在资金消退后放缓。</p>
<h2>隐藏的制约因素</h2>
<p>贸易风险仍然存在，但不再是主导因素。企业已经适应。</p>
<p>重新布局和库存缓冲减轻了关税带来的冲击。欧洲并没有繁荣，但正在应对。</p>
<p>更紧迫的制约因素是能源和基础设施。</p>
<p>人工智能投资正在变成一场电力竞赛。电网容量的审批、时间表和电价现在比出口量更能影响增长。</p>
<p>这就是欧洲结构性问题的重要性。支离破碎的能源市场减缓了审批，电网投资的不均匀限制了规模。</p>
<p>解决这一瓶颈的国家将获得安静的优势。那些不解决的国家将看到投资停滞，尽管需求健康。</p>
<h2>投资者应该关注的地方</h2>
<p>2026 年欧盟前景奖励关注基础设施而非头条新闻。</p>
<p>最大的宏观收益不会来自意外增长，而是来自资本与制约相遇的领域。</p>
<p>这意味着关注资产负债表而非情绪。</p>
<p>能够迅速将资本投入电网、发电、物流、国防供应链和数字基础设施的行业和国家，在低增长环境中有望表现优于其他。审批拖延的地方，收益迅速减弱。</p>
<p>这也意味着估值再次变得重要。由于整体层面的盈利增长有限，收益将越来越依赖于现金生成、资产负债表的强度和定价纪律。</p>
<p>欧洲股市充满了那些在不提升 GDP 统计的情况下不断增值的公司。到 2026 年，这些公司可能会比周围的宏观故事更受关注。</p>
<p>公用事业公司在不断上升的电力投资中获得监管回报。国防供应商正在签订多年订单，而没有立即的产出激增。</p>
<p>基础设施和服务公司正在通过维护、升级和瓶颈的货币化来获利，而不是依赖新的需求。</p>
<p>欧盟经济正进入一个阶段，结果越来越依赖于摩擦而非预测。项目推进的速度。</p>
<p>能源交付的成本。资本回收的效率。</p>
<p>降息后的欧盟经济：投资者在 2026 年需要知道的事项首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>在 2026 年，欧盟经济将保持稳定的通胀和利率，增长依赖于投资而非货币政策。欧洲央行已停止降息，维持中立立场。增长温和，主要由投资推动，尤其是在人工智能和基础设施方面。各国的财政政策各不相同，德国的基础设施支出和南欧的改革对增长产生影响。欧盟的复苏基金提供支持，但其最大影响即将达到顶峰，这引发了对未来增长动力的质疑</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-23-2025-03_42_39-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-23-2025-03_42_39-PM.png"/></p>
<p>Europe enters 2026 with a positive ending to the year. Inflation is under control, interest rates have stopped moving, and the worst fears of recession have faded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲以积极的态势进入 2026 年。通胀得到控制，利率停止变动，最糟糕的衰退担忧已经消退。</p>
</div><p>But growth remains thin, uneven, and heavily dependent on where money actually gets spent rather than on any macro lever being pulled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但增长依然微薄、不均匀，且高度依赖资金实际支出的位置，而不是任何宏观杠杆的作用。</p>
</div><p>The easy explanations are gone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单的解释已经不再适用。</p>
</div><p>With monetary policy being less restrictive and energy prices coming under control, Europe now has to focus on what could really help it rise in the global rankings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着货币政策不再那么紧缩，能源价格得到控制，欧洲现在必须专注于真正能帮助其在全球排名中上升的因素。</p>
</div><h2>A stable ECB but no safety net</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稳定的欧洲央行但没有安全网</h2>
</div><p>The ECB has indicated that the cycle of rate cuts is most likely over. The deposit rate sits at 2% after eight cuts from the peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行已表明降息周期最有可能结束。存款利率在经历八次降息后维持在 2%。</p>
</div><p>Officials are clear that hikes are not on the table, but further easing would require a clear and persistent undershoot of inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们明确表示加息不在考虑之中，但进一步放松政策需要通胀明显且持续低于目标。</p>
</div><p>Markets expect rates to stay broadly unchanged well into 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场预计利率将在 2027 年之前大致保持不变。</p>
</div><p>This changes the nature of growth. Monetary policy is no longer pushing demand forward. It is no longer pulling it back either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这改变了增长的性质。货币政策不再推动需求，也不再抑制需求。</p>
</div><p>The ECB has parked policy in neutral and stepped aside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行已将政策保持在中立状态，并暂时退居幕后。</p>
</div><p>Inflation supports this stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀支持了这一立场。</p>
</div><p>Headline euro area inflation is expected to sit close to 2% through 2026 and 2027, mainly because energy prices are no longer driving big swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 2026 年和 2027 年，欧元区的整体通胀将接近 2%，主要是因为能源价格不再引发大幅波动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-218.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-218.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>The remaining pressure sits in services and wages, and even there, momentum is easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩余的压力主要集中在服务和工资上，即使在这些领域，动能也在减弱。</p>
</div><p>The ECB’s own projections show inflation dipping slightly below target before returning to 2% later in the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行自己的预测显示，通胀将在目标以下略微下降，然后在本十年晚些时候回升至 2%。</p>
</div><p>The result is a rare condition for Europe. Stable prices and stable rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为欧洲带来了一个罕见的状态。价格和利率稳定。</p>
</div><p>That sounds dull, but it removes excuses. Weak growth can no longer be blamed on restrictive policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这听起来乏味，但消除了借口。疲弱的增长不再能归咎于紧缩政策。</p>
</div><h2>Growth is modest but not fragile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长温和但不脆弱</h2>
</div><p>Most forecasts point to euro area growth around 1.1-1.2% in 2026 and closer to 1.4% in 2027. That is not impressive, but it is durable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数预测显示，2026 年欧元区的增长约为 1.1-1.2%，而 2027 年接近 1.4%。这并不令人印象深刻，但却是持久的。</p>
</div><p>Spain remains the standout among large economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西班牙在大型经济体中表现突出。</p>
</div><p>Growth above 2% in 2026 is supported by job creation, real wage gains and EU-backed investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年超过 2% 的增长得益于就业创造、实际工资增长和欧盟支持的投资。</p>
</div><p>Germany is improving, having been at a low base for a while. After three years of stagnation, growth is expected to approach 1% in 2026 and pick up further in 2027. France and Italy lag with growth closer to 1% and below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国正在改善，经过一段时间的低迷后，预计 2026 年增长将接近 1%，并在 2027 年进一步上升。法国和意大利的增长则接近 1% 或更低。</p>
</div><p>Strip out Ireland’s volatile national accounts, and the euro area looks slower but steadier. Consumption is no longer shrinking. Credit growth is stabilising. Investment has started to recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除爱尔兰波动较大的国民账户，欧元区看起来增长缓慢但稳定。消费不再萎缩。信贷增长正在稳定。投资开始复苏。</p>
</div><p>The key point is that Europe is not short of demand, but short of momentum. That momentum now depends on where capital goes and how fast projects move from approval to reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键点在于，欧洲并不缺乏需求，但缺乏动能。动能现在取决于资本流向何处，以及项目从批准到现实的推进速度。</p>
</div><h2>Investment is the real story for next year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资是明年的真正故事</h2>
</div><p>The most important factor in the EU outlook is the return of investment as a growth driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟前景中最重要的因素是投资作为增长驱动因素的回归。</p>
</div><p>This is visible in both public and private data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一点在公共和私人数据中都可见一斑。</p>
</div><p>ECB officials have openly said that recent upside surprises came from investment rather than consumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行官员公开表示，最近的上行意外来自投资而非消费。</p>
</div><p>OECD surveys show a sharp rise in spending linked to artificial intelligence. Corporate guidance across Europe points in the same direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济合作与发展组织的调查显示，与人工智能相关的支出急剧上升。欧洲各公司的指导意见也指向同一方向。</p>
</div><p>But Europe’s AI story does not look like America’s. The EU is not capturing most of the software rents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但欧洲的人工智能故事与美国的不同。欧盟并未捕获大部分软件收益。</p>
</div><p>It is supplying the physical backbone instead. Those are data centres, power systems, cables, automation, and buildings that can handle higher loads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它提供的是物理基础设施。这些包括数据中心、电力系统、电缆、自动化和能够承载更高负荷的建筑。</p>
</div><p>That is why industrial companies linked to electrification and power infrastructure are seeing strong order books. It is also why earnings expectations for European industrials jump sharply in 2026, even though GDP growth barely moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么与电气化和电力基础设施相关的工业公司订单量强劲的原因。尽管 GDP 增长几乎没有变化，但对欧洲工业的盈利预期在 2026 年大幅上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-219.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-219.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>This investment cycle is less flashy than consumer tech but more persistent. Data centres do not run without electricity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一投资周期不如消费科技那样引人注目，但更具持续性。数据中心没有电力是无法运作的。</p>
</div><p>Grids do not expand overnight. Once started, these projects run for years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电网不会在一夜之间扩展。一旦启动，这些项目将持续多年。</p>
</div><h2>Fiscal policy will decide who wins and who stalls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>财政政策将决定谁胜谁负</h2>
</div><p>With the ECB on hold, fiscal policy has become the main lever. Here, Europe looks fragmented.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着欧洲央行保持观望，财政政策已成为主要杠杆。在这里，欧洲显得支离破碎。</p>
</div><p>Germany has the biggest potential impact. A 500 billion euro infrastructure package and rising defence spending could lift growth across the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国的潜在影响最大。5000 亿欧元的基础设施计划和不断上升的国防支出可能会提升整个地区的增长。</p>
</div><p>But speed is the constraint. Slow permitting, weak project pipelines and labour shortages dilute the effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但速度是制约因素。缓慢的审批、薄弱的项目管道和劳动力短缺削弱了效果。</p>
</div><p>Germany’s rebound will be real but gradual.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国的复苏将是真实的，但渐进的。</p>
</div><p>Southern Europe shows a different pattern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>南欧则呈现出不同的模式。</p>
</div><p>Spain benefits from earlier reforms and strong labour market dynamics. Italy has absorbed EU recovery funds faster than many peers, but actual spending still lags allocations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西班牙受益于早期的改革和强劲的劳动力市场动态。意大利比许多同行更快地吸收了欧盟复苏资金，但实际支出仍滞后于分配。</p>
</div><p>France faces tighter budget constraints and political noise, which caps upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国面临更紧的预算约束和政治噪音，这限制了上行空间。</p>
</div><p>At the EU level, recovery funds remain supportive,e but their peak impact is approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧盟层面，复苏资金仍然具有支持作用，但其峰值影响即将到来。</p>
</div><p>The question for 2027 and beyond is what replaces them. Countries that treat EU money as a bridge to private investment will outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2027 年及以后的问题是，什么将取而代之。将欧盟资金视为通往私人投资的桥梁的国家将表现优于那些将其视为替代品的国家。</p>
</div><p>Those who treat it as a substitute will slow once the funds fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些将其视为替代品的国家将在资金消退后放缓。</p>
</div><h2>The hidden constraint</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>隐藏的制约因素</h2>
</div><p>Trade risks still exist, but they are no longer the dominant factor. Companies have adapted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贸易风险仍然存在，但不再是主导因素。企业已经适应。</p>
</div><p>Rerouting and inventory buffers have softened the blow from tariffs. Europe is not booming but it is coping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新布局和库存缓冲减轻了关税带来的冲击。欧洲并没有繁荣，但正在应对。</p>
</div><p>The tighter constraint is energy and infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更紧迫的制约因素是能源和基础设施。</p>
</div><p>AI investment is turning into an electricity race. Grid capacity permitting, timelines and power prices now shape growth more than export volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能投资正在变成一场电力竞赛。电网容量的审批、时间表和电价现在比出口量更能影响增长。</p>
</div><p>This is where Europe’s structural issues matter. Fragmented energy markets slow approvals and uneven grid investment limit scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是欧洲结构性问题的重要性。支离破碎的能源市场减缓了审批，电网投资的不均匀限制了规模。</p>
</div><p>Countries that fix this bottleneck will gain a quiet advantage. Those that do not will see investment stall despite healthy demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解决这一瓶颈的国家将获得安静的优势。那些不解决的国家将看到投资停滞，尽管需求健康。</p>
</div><h2>Where investors should actually look</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该关注的地方</h2>
</div><p>The EU outlook for 2026 rewards attention to plumbing rather than headlines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年欧盟前景奖励关注基础设施而非头条新闻。</p>
</div><p>The biggest macro gains will not come from surprise growth, but from areas where capital meets constraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的宏观收益不会来自意外增长，而是来自资本与制约相遇的领域。</p>
</div><p>That means following the balance sheets instead of sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着关注资产负债表而非情绪。</p>
</div><p>Sectors and countries that can deploy capital quickly into grids, power generation, logistics, defence supply chains and digital infrastructure are positioned to outperform even in a low-growth environment. Where approvals drag, returns fade fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能够迅速将资本投入电网、发电、物流、国防供应链和数字基础设施的行业和国家，在低增长环境中有望表现优于其他。审批拖延的地方，收益迅速减弱。</p>
</div><p>It also means that valuation matters again. With earnings growth limited at the aggregate level, returns will increasingly come from cash generation, balance sheet strength and pricing discipline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也意味着估值再次变得重要。由于整体层面的盈利增长有限，收益将越来越依赖于现金生成、资产负债表的强度和定价纪律。</p>
</div><p>Europe’s equity market is full of companies that are compounding value without ever lifting GDP statistics. In 2026, those firms will likely get more attention than the macro story around them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市充满了那些在不提升 GDP 统计的情况下不断增值的公司。到 2026 年，这些公司可能会比周围的宏观故事更受关注。</p>
</div><p>Utilities earn regulated returns on rising power investment. Defence suppliers are booking multi-year orders without immediate output spikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公用事业公司在不断上升的电力投资中获得监管回报。国防供应商正在签订多年订单，而没有立即的产出激增。</p>
</div><p>Infrastructure and services firms are monetising maintenance, upgrades and bottlenecks rather than new demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基础设施和服务公司正在通过维护、升级和瓶颈的货币化来获利，而不是依赖新的需求。</p>
</div><p>The EU economy is entering a phase where outcomes depend less on forecasts and more on friction. How fast projects move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟经济正进入一个阶段，结果越来越依赖于摩擦而非预测。项目推进的速度。</p>
</div><p>How cheaply energy is delivered. How effectively capital is recycled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源交付的成本。资本回收的效率。</p>
</div><p>The post EU economy after rate cuts: what investors need to know in 2026 appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息后的欧盟经济：投资者在 2026 年需要知道的事项首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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欧盟经济在降息后的表现：2026 年投资者需要了解的事项