<p>美联储会议纪要可能会进一步阐明利率前景</p>
<p>标普 500 指数有望实现连续第八个月上涨</p>
<p>投资者关注市场轮动，非科技领域表现突出</p>
<p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科夫</p>
<p>纽约，12 月 26 日（路透社）- 投资者希望美国股市在下周以高点结束 2025 年，股市创下历史新高，并接近进一步的牛市里程碑，以结束又一个强劲的年度。</p>
<p>主要的美国指数有望在 12 月结束时上涨，此前股票在本月初因对人工智能支出担忧而导致科技股疲软的动荡中反弹。标普 500 指数（.SPX）在周三创下历史新高，恰逢周四的圣诞假期，距离首次突破 7000 点仅约 1%。该基准指数有望实现连续第八个月的上涨，这将是自 2017-2018 年以来最长的月度连胜纪录。</p>
<p>“动能无疑在多头一方，” 穆菲与西尔维斯特财富管理公司的高级财富顾问兼市场策略师保罗·诺尔特表示。“除非发生外部事件，我认为股票的最低阻力路径是向上。”</p>
<p>美联储最近一次会议的纪要突显了假期缩短周内的市场事件，而年末的投资组合调整可能会在交易量较轻的时段引发一些波动，从而夸大资产价格的变动。</p>
<p>在新年即将来临之际，投资者高度关注美联储何时可能进一步降息。美国中央银行在控制通胀和实现充分就业的目标之间取得平衡，在 2025 年的最后三次会议上将基准利率下调了 75 个基点，目前利率为 3.50%-3.75%。</p>
<p>但美联储在 12 月 9-10 日会议上以四分之一个百分点降息的最新投票结果存在分歧，政策制定者对明年的利率预测也存在很大差异。下周二将发布的该会议纪要可能会 “揭示一些讨论中的论点，” 格伦梅德投资策略副总裁迈克尔·雷诺兹表示。</p>
<p>“预测明年我们将获得多少次降息是市场目前关注的重点，” 雷诺兹说。“下周我们将获得更多相关信息。” 投资者还在等待特朗普总统提名一位新美联储主席来替代杰罗姆·鲍威尔，后者的任期将在 5 月结束，特朗普的任何决定都可能在下周影响市场。</p>
<p>在 2025 年仅剩几次交易时段的情况下，标普 500 指数年初至今上涨近 18%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（.IXIC）上涨 22%。</p>
<p>然而，作为超过三年牛市的主要推动力，科技板块在最近几周表现不佳，而市场的其他领域则表现突出。尽管本周反弹，标普 500 科技板块（.SPLRCT）自 11 月初以来已下跌超过 3%。在此期间，金融（.SPSY）、运输（.DJT）、医疗保健（.SPXHC）和小型股（.RUT）等领域均实现了稳健的增长。</p>
<p>市场的变动表明，投资者正在转向估值相对温和的领域，阿美利财务公司的首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格利门表示。</p>
<p>“越来越多的投资者开始相信经济目前处于相对稳固的基础上，” 萨格利门说。“而且它已经度过了许多潜在的障碍，这些障碍在明年可能不会成为障碍。”</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>投资者对美国股市在 2025 年以高点收尾持乐观态度，标普 500 指数接近 7000 点。该指数有望实现连续第八个月的上涨。美联储纪要和年末投资组合调整可能会引发一些波动。投资者关注潜在的美联储降息和新美联储主席的提名。科技板块近期表现不佳，而金融和医疗等其他板块表现良好</p>

<p>Fed minutes could shed more light on rate outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储会议纪要可能会进一步阐明利率前景</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 on course for 8th straight monthly gain</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 指数有望实现连续第八个月上涨</p>
</div><p>Investors watching market rotation as non-tech areas shine</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者关注市场轮动，非科技领域表现突出</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Investors are looking for the U.S. stock market to end 2025 on a high note next week, with equities at record peaks and nearing further bullish milestones to close out another strong year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，12 月 26 日（路透社）- 投资者希望美国股市在下周以高点结束 2025 年，股市创下历史新高，并接近进一步的牛市里程碑，以结束又一个强劲的年度。</p>
</div><p>Major U.S. indexes were on course to end December higher after stocks shook off turbulence earlier in the month driven by weakness in technology shares over worries tied to spending on artificial intelligence. The S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) posted a record close on Wednesday, ahead of the Christmas holiday on Thursday, and was about 1% from reaching the 7,000 level for the first time. The benchmark index was on track for its eighth straight month of gains, which would be its longest monthly winning streak since 2017-2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的美国指数有望在 12 月结束时上涨，此前股票在本月初因对人工智能支出担忧而导致科技股疲软的动荡中反弹。标普 500 指数（.SPX）在周三创下历史新高，恰逢周四的圣诞假期，距离首次突破 7000 点仅约 1%。该基准指数有望实现连续第八个月的上涨，这将是自 2017-2018 年以来最长的月度连胜纪录。</p>
</div><p>“Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy &amp; Sylvest Wealth Management. “Barring any exogenous event, the path of least resistance for stocks, I think, is higher.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“动能无疑在多头一方，” 穆菲与西尔维斯特财富管理公司的高级财富顾问兼市场策略师保罗·诺尔特表示。“除非发生外部事件，我认为股票的最低阻力路径是向上。”</p>
</div><p>Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting highlight the market events in the holiday-shortened week ahead, while year-end portfolio adjustments could cause some volatility at a time when light trading volumes can exaggerate asset price moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储最近一次会议的纪要突显了假期缩短周内的市场事件，而年末的投资组合调整可能会在交易量较轻的时段引发一些波动，从而夸大资产价格的变动。</p>
</div><p>Heading into the new year, investors are highly focused on when the Fed might further cut interest rates. The U.S. central bank, which balances goals of contained inflation and full employment, lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to the current level of 3.50%-3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新年即将来临之际，投资者高度关注美联储何时可能进一步降息。美国中央银行在控制通胀和实现充分就业的目标之间取得平衡，在 2025 年的最后三次会议上将基准利率下调了 75 个基点，目前利率为 3.50%-3.75%。</p>
</div><p>But the Fed’s most recent vote at its December 9-10 meeting to lower rates by a quarter percentage point was divided, while policymakers also gave widely different projections about rates in the coming year. The minutes for that meeting, due to be released on Tuesday of next week, may be “illuminating to hear what some of the arguments were around the table,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但美联储在 12 月 9-10 日会议上以四分之一个百分点降息的最新投票结果存在分歧，政策制定者对明年的利率预测也存在很大差异。下周二将发布的该会议纪要可能会 “揭示一些讨论中的论点，” 格伦梅德投资策略副总裁迈克尔·雷诺兹表示。</p>
</div><p>“Handicapping how many rate cuts we’re going to get next year is a big thing markets are focused on right now,” Reynolds said. “We’ll just get a little bit more information on that next week.” Investors are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, and any inkling of Trump’s decision could sway markets in the coming week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“预测明年我们将获得多少次降息是市场目前关注的重点，” 雷诺兹说。“下周我们将获得更多相关信息。” 投资者还在等待特朗普总统提名一位新美联储主席来替代杰罗姆·鲍威尔，后者的任期将在 5 月结束，特朗普的任何决定都可能在下周影响市场。</p>
</div><p>With just a handful of trading sessions left in 2025, the S&amp;P 500 was up nearly 18% for the year, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) up 22%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年仅剩几次交易时段的情况下，标普 500 指数年初至今上涨近 18%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（.IXIC）上涨 22%。</p>
</div><p>However, the tech sector, which has been the main driver of the more than three-year-old bull market, has struggled in recent weeks, while other areas of the market have shined. Despite rebounding this week, the S&amp;P 500 tech sector (.SPLRCT) has declined more than 3% since the start of November. Over that time, areas such as financials (.SPSY) , transports (.DJT) , healthcare (.SPXHC) and small caps (.RUT) have posted solid gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，作为超过三年牛市的主要推动力，科技板块在最近几周表现不佳，而市场的其他领域则表现突出。尽管本周反弹，标普 500 科技板块（.SPLRCT）自 11 月初以来已下跌超过 3%。在此期间，金融（.SPSY）、运输（.DJT）、医疗保健（.SPXHC）和小型股（.RUT）等领域均实现了稳健的增长。</p>
</div><p>The market moves indicate some rotation into areas where valuations are more moderate, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的变动表明，投资者正在转向估值相对温和的领域，阿美利财务公司的首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格利门表示。</p>
</div><p>“There are more investors that are buying in to the narrative that the economy is on pretty solid footing right now,” Saglimbene said. “And it has weathered a lot of potential roadblocks this year that might not be such roadblocks next year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“越来越多的投资者开始相信经济目前处于相对稳固的基础上，” 萨格利门说。“而且它已经度过了许多潜在的障碍，这些障碍在明年可能不会成为障碍。”</p>
</div>

华尔街展望：标普 500 指数瞄准 7000 点，投资者期待强劲的 2025 年能够有一个乐观的收尾