<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2013/07/18/10/56/gold-163519_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2013/07/18/10/56/gold-163519_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>我们正面临一个极其罕见的情况：VIX 接近一年以来的最低水平，约为 14，而黄金价格则达到了历史新高。在正常情况下，这种共存是不存在的。被压制的股票波动性通常伴随着疲软、边际、无用的黄金。今天，情况正好相反。这不是统计异常，而是制度的变化。</p>
<p>这种分歧将从 2023 年开始逐渐显现，VIX 保持低迷，而黄金停止修正，摆脱股市的平静期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1M.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1M.png"/></p>
<p>但 2025 年标志着这一现象强度的明显突破。今年，分歧不仅在继续，而且在加速：VIX 正在下滑至一年甚至多年的低点，而黄金则在创下新纪录。我们已经从简单的制度转变，转向了人为压缩的股票波动性与越来越明显地反映这种控制未来成本的货币资产之间的结构性分歧。随着时间的推移，信息变得越来越清晰：这不是一次临时事故，而是今年显著增强的基本趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1D.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1D.png"/></p>
<p>第一个关键点是，VIX 不再定价风险。它定价的是股票风险控制。波动性是通过短期波动性头寸、非常短期期权的主导地位、交易商的正伽马以及在关键到期日前避免任何干扰的明确愿望机械性地压缩的。</p>
<p>这意味着波动性并不是因为风险消失而自然下降，而是由于市场的结构被人为地保持在低位。许多参与者通过卖出波动性（称为短波头寸）来押注于稳定的环境，这对 VIX 施加了持续的下行压力。同时，非常短期期权的激增，有时仅限于一天，使得可以几乎瞬间调整敞口并中和新兴的波动。在这种情况下，金融中介——交易商——经常处于正伽马状态：在市场稍微下跌时，他们的利益是买入，而在市场上涨时卖出，这自动缓冲了波动。最后，随着关键截止日期的临近——财报发布、中央银行决策、期权到期——有强烈的动机避免任何明显的干扰，因为突然的波动可能会破坏整个系统。所有这些机制都充当了人为的稳定器，压制波动性而不消除潜在的风险。</p>
<p>股市之所以平静，并不是因为风险消失了，而是因为它被积极地阻止表达。</p>
<p>与此同时，黄金并不关注 VIX。它关注的是其他东西：货币信誉、隐性干预、系统的运作、公共债务管理，以及货币政策与市场稳定之间日益模糊的界限。在这一领域，信号是明确的：针对国债的定向购买、间接流动性支持、敏感宏观统计数据的推迟、被人为 “钉住” 的市场。</p>
<p>黄金不会恐慌——它会预见。</p>
<p>VIX 与黄金之间的这种分歧讲述了一个双速的故事。一方面，我们有一个冻结的股市，徘徊在其高点下方几十点，波动性处于历史最低水平。另一方面，是一个已经反映出这种控制未来成本的货币资产。波动性被压制的时间越长，黄金传递的信息就越清晰：风险并没有消失——它被转移和推迟了。</p>
<p>这一制度最令人担忧的方面是，它消除了反应的窗口。历史上，压力期是逐渐积累的。今天，市场可以直接从平静转向动荡。过早预测是破坏性的，因为涉及到时间价值和隐含波动性压制。</p>
<p>对于非专业投资者来说，这意味着过早押注于压力期或市场下跌可能会导致损失，即使你在基本面上是正确的。用于这种押注的工具，如期权，随着时间的推移自然会贬值：这被称为时间价值（theta）。预期的波动发生得越久，这种价值就越会侵蚀。此外，当市场保持平静时，这些期权的价格进一步下跌，因为恐惧减退：这被称为隐含波动性下降——著名的 IV 压制。因此，即使冲击最终发生，头寸可能已经显著贬值，甚至几乎毫无价值。换句话说，过早正确可能和错误一样代价高昂。</p>
<p>等待信号会让你面临突然的波动——通常以缺口的形式——而这些工具已经变得不切实际。这正是这种分歧所暗示的：在这两种状态之间不再存在真正的风险价格。</p>
<p>当黄金在 VIX 下跌时创下新高时，错的不是黄金，而是股票市场在控制的影响下演变。这种配置并不能告诉我们何时会发生突破，但它确实告诉我们一个重要的事情：当突破发生时，可能不会给任何人留下适当进入的机会。</p>
<p>这不是一个平静的市场——这是一个被锁定的市场。</p>
<p>上一次 VIX 交易在类似水平是在 2024 年 12 月，背景与今天非常相似：表面平静，市场被锁定。当时，没有即将危机的迹象——指数接近其高点，波动性被压制，完全控制的感觉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1h.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1h.png"/></p>
<p>然而，在不到三个小时内，VIX 几乎翻了一番。这一波动既不是由于重大宏观经济冲击，也不是由于明显的地缘政治事件引发的。它主要是一个机械性突破。市场在短期波动性上重仓，短期期权占主导地位，交易员在某些技术阈值被突破后，迅速从稳定器转变为放大器。一旦这些水平被打破，必须紧急购买对冲，触发自我维持的连锁反应。</p>
<p>这一事件完美地说明了当前的风险：当 VIX 处于如此低的水平时，下一次上涨并不会逐渐形成。它是突然发生的，几乎没有真正的调整窗口——即使在没有任何明显的 “坏消息” 的情况下也是如此。</p>
<p>这种类型的干扰可以在非常短的时间内发生，也可以在更晚的时候发生，使得时机几乎无法把握。这正是提前购买看跌期权不是有效解决方案的原因：时间的推移（theta）机械性地侵蚀它们的价值，并可能在冲击发生之前很久就使其失去效用。在这种情况下，黄金作为一种优选的对冲工具脱颖而出，因为它能够提供对系统性和货币风险的保护，而不会随着时间的推移而遭受这种逐渐的损耗。</p>
<p>这使得理解黄金在今年年底创下的新历史高点变得更加容易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/or-usd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/or-usd.png"/></p>
<p>这一上涨并不反映出股市的明显恐慌或即时压力，而是投资者对风险的更微妙解读。面对人为压缩的波动性、异常低水平维持的 VIX，以及无法把握的干扰前景，传统的对冲工具变得无效。过早购买保护性期权使投资者面临其价值逐渐侵蚀的风险，而等待信号往往意味着来得太晚。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，实物黄金作为一种系统外的保险政策脱颖而出：它不依赖于冲击的精确时机或股市的隐含波动性。因此，这种黄色金属正在捕捉对长期保护的需求，以应对货币干预、波动控制的脆弱性以及这种强制稳定的未来成本。因此，这一纪录并不是投机过剩，而是市场在寻求持久保护的环境中，风险被推回、压缩，并且越来越难以用传统工具对冲的逻辑结果。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>当贵金属解码市场干预时</p>
<p>白银、斐波那契与恶性通货膨胀</p>
<p>黄金/欧元：重大拐点，但价格仍可能上涨</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了 VIX 处于低位与黄金价格处于历史高位之间的不寻常背离。这种背离归因于市场动态的结构性变化，股票波动性被人为压制，而黄金则反映了对货币政策和市场稳定性的担忧。这种情况表明了一种基本趋势，而非暂时的异常，给投资者在风险评估和市场反应方面带来了影响</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2013/07/18/10/56/gold-163519_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2013/07/18/10/56/gold-163519_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>We are facing an extremely rare situation: the VIX is close to its lowest level in a year, around 14, while the price of gold is reaching historic highs. Under normal circumstances, this coexistence does not exist. Crushed equity volatility is generally accompanied by sluggish, marginal, useless gold. Today, it is exactly the opposite. This is not a statistical anomaly, but a change in regime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们正面临一个极其罕见的情况：VIX 接近一年以来的最低水平，约为 14，而黄金价格则达到了历史新高。在正常情况下，这种共存是不存在的。被压制的股票波动性通常伴随着疲软、边际、无用的黄金。今天，情况正好相反。这不是统计异常，而是制度的变化。</p>
</div><p>The divergence will gradually emerge from 2023 onwards, with the VIX remaining subdued while gold stops correcting and breaks free from periods of calm on the equity markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分歧将从 2023 年开始逐渐显现，VIX 保持低迷，而黄金停止修正，摆脱股市的平静期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1M.png" alt="" original-src="https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1M.png"/></p>
<p>But 2025 marks a clear break in the intensity of the phenomenon. This year, the divergence is not only continuing, it is accelerating: the VIX is sinking to one-year or even multi-year lows, while gold is setting new records. We have moved from a simple regime shift to a structural divergence between artificially compressed equity volatility and a monetary asset that is increasingly clearly incorporating the future cost of this control. As time goes by, the message becomes clearer: this is not a temporary accident, but a fundamental trend that has strengthened sharply this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 2025 年标志着这一现象强度的明显突破。今年，分歧不仅在继续，而且在加速：VIX 正在下滑至一年甚至多年的低点，而黄金则在创下新纪录。我们已经从简单的制度转变，转向了人为压缩的股票波动性与越来越明显地反映这种控制未来成本的货币资产之间的结构性分歧。随着时间的推移，信息变得越来越清晰：这不是一次临时事故，而是今年显著增强的基本趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1D.png" alt="" original-src="https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1D.png"/></p>
<p>The first key point is that the VIX no longer prices risk. It prices equity risk control. Volatility is mechanically compressed by short volatility positioning, the dominance of very short-term options, dealers' positive gamma, and a clear desire to avoid any disruption ahead of key expiries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个关键点是，VIX 不再定价风险。它定价的是股票风险控制。波动性是通过短期波动性头寸、非常短期期权的主导地位、交易商的正伽马以及在关键到期日前避免任何干扰的明确愿望机械性地压缩的。</p>
</div><p>This means that volatility is not naturally declining because risk has disappeared, but is being artificially kept low by the very structure of the market. Many players are betting on a stable environment by selling volatility—known as short vol positions—which puts continuous downward pressure on the VIX. At the same time, the proliferation of very short-term options, sometimes limited to a single day, makes it possible to constantly adjust exposures and neutralize emerging movements almost instantly. In this context, financial intermediaries—dealers—frequently find themselves in positive gamma: it is then in their interest to buy when the market falls slightly and sell when it rises, which automatically cushions fluctuations. Finally, as key deadlines approach—earnings releases, central bank decisions, option expirations—there is a strong incentive to avoid any visible disruption, as a sudden movement could destabilize the entire system. All of these mechanisms act as an artificial stabilizer, crushing volatility without eliminating the underlying risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着波动性并不是因为风险消失而自然下降，而是由于市场的结构被人为地保持在低位。许多参与者通过卖出波动性（称为短波头寸）来押注于稳定的环境，这对 VIX 施加了持续的下行压力。同时，非常短期期权的激增，有时仅限于一天，使得可以几乎瞬间调整敞口并中和新兴的波动。在这种情况下，金融中介——交易商——经常处于正伽马状态：在市场稍微下跌时，他们的利益是买入，而在市场上涨时卖出，这自动缓冲了波动。最后，随着关键截止日期的临近——财报发布、中央银行决策、期权到期——有强烈的动机避免任何明显的干扰，因为突然的波动可能会破坏整个系统。所有这些机制都充当了人为的稳定器，压制波动性而不消除潜在的风险。</p>
</div><p>The stock market is calm not because risk has disappeared, but because it is being actively prevented from expressing itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市之所以平静，并不是因为风险消失了，而是因为它被积极地阻止表达。</p>
</div><p>Gold, meanwhile, is not looking at the VIX. It is looking at something else: monetary credibility, implicit interventions, the plumbing of the system, public debt management, and the increasingly blurred line between monetary policy and market stabilization. And in this area, the signals are clear: targeted purchases of T-bills, indirect liquidity support, postponement of sensitive macro statistics, artificially “pinned” markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，黄金并不关注 VIX。它关注的是其他东西：货币信誉、隐性干预、系统的运作、公共债务管理，以及货币政策与市场稳定之间日益模糊的界限。在这一领域，信号是明确的：针对国债的定向购买、间接流动性支持、敏感宏观统计数据的推迟、被人为 “钉住” 的市场。</p>
</div><p>Gold doesn't panic—it anticipates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金不会恐慌——它会预见。</p>
</div><p>This divergence between the VIX and gold tells a two-speed story. On the one hand, we have a frozen stock market, hovering a few dozen points below its highs, with volatility at an all-time low. On the other, a monetary asset that already incorporates the future cost of this control. The longer volatility is suppressed, the clearer the message from gold becomes: risk has not disappeared — it has been displaced and deferred.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VIX 与黄金之间的这种分歧讲述了一个双速的故事。一方面，我们有一个冻结的股市，徘徊在其高点下方几十点，波动性处于历史最低水平。另一方面，是一个已经反映出这种控制未来成本的货币资产。波动性被压制的时间越长，黄金传递的信息就越清晰：风险并没有消失——它被转移和推迟了。</p>
</div><p>The most worrying aspect of this regime is that it removes the window for reaction. Historically, periods of stress built up gradually. Today, the market can go directly from calm to turmoil. Anticipating too early is destructive due to theta and IV crush.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一制度最令人担忧的方面是，它消除了反应的窗口。历史上，压力期是逐渐积累的。今天，市场可以直接从平静转向动荡。过早预测是破坏性的，因为涉及到时间价值和隐含波动性压制。</p>
</div><p>For a non-specialist investor, this simply means that betting too early on a period of stress or a market downturn can cost money, even if you are fundamentally correct. The instruments used for this type of betting, such as options, naturally lose value over time: this is known as theta. The longer the expected movement takes to occur, the more this value erodes. On top of that, when the market remains calm, the price of these options falls further because fear subsides: this is known as the fall in implied volatility—the famous IV crush. As a result, even if the shock does eventually occur later, the position may already be significantly degraded, or even almost worthless. In other words, being right too early can be as costly as being wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于非专业投资者来说，这意味着过早押注于压力期或市场下跌可能会导致损失，即使你在基本面上是正确的。用于这种押注的工具，如期权，随着时间的推移自然会贬值：这被称为时间价值（theta）。预期的波动发生得越久，这种价值就越会侵蚀。此外，当市场保持平静时，这些期权的价格进一步下跌，因为恐惧减退：这被称为隐含波动性下降——著名的 IV 压制。因此，即使冲击最终发生，头寸可能已经显著贬值，甚至几乎毫无价值。换句话说，过早正确可能和错误一样代价高昂。</p>
</div><p>Waiting for the signal exposes you to a sudden movement—often in the form of a gap—with instruments that have become impractical. This is precisely what this divergence suggests: there is no longer a true price of risk between the two states.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>等待信号会让你面临突然的波动——通常以缺口的形式——而这些工具已经变得不切实际。这正是这种分歧所暗示的：在这两种状态之间不再存在真正的风险价格。</p>
</div><p>When gold hits new highs while the VIX is down, it is not gold that is wrong. It is the stock market that is evolving under the influence of control. This type of configuration does not tell us when the break will occur, but it does tell us something essential: when it does occur, it will probably leave no one with the opportunity to enter properly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当黄金在 VIX 下跌时创下新高时，错的不是黄金，而是股票市场在控制的影响下演变。这种配置并不能告诉我们何时会发生突破，但它确实告诉我们一个重要的事情：当突破发生时，可能不会给任何人留下适当进入的机会。</p>
</div><p>This is not a calm market — it is a locked market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是一个平静的市场——这是一个被锁定的市场。</p>
</div><p>The last time the VIX traded at comparable levels was in December 2024, in a context very similar to today's: apparent calm, a locked-down market. At the time, there were no signs of an impending crisis—indices were close to their highs, volatility was crushed, and there was a sense of total control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次 VIX 交易在类似水平是在 2024 年 12 月，背景与今天非常相似：表面平静，市场被锁定。当时，没有即将危机的迹象——指数接近其高点，波动性被压制，完全控制的感觉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1h.png" alt="" original-src="https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/volatilite-SP500-1h.png"/></p>
<p>However, in less than three hours, the VIX had almost doubled. This movement was triggered neither by a major macroeconomic shock nor by a clearly identifiable geopolitical event. It was primarily a mechanical break. The market was heavily positioned in short volatility, with very short-term options dominating, and dealers abruptly switched from stabilizers to amplifiers as soon as certain technical thresholds were crossed. Once these levels were broken, hedges had to be purchased urgently, triggering a self-sustaining chain reaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在不到三个小时内，VIX 几乎翻了一番。这一波动既不是由于重大宏观经济冲击，也不是由于明显的地缘政治事件引发的。它主要是一个机械性突破。市场在短期波动性上重仓，短期期权占主导地位，交易员在某些技术阈值被突破后，迅速从稳定器转变为放大器。一旦这些水平被打破，必须紧急购买对冲，触发自我维持的连锁反应。</p>
</div><p>This episode perfectly illustrates the current risk: when the VIX is at such low levels, the next rise does not build gradually. It occurs abruptly, without any real window for adjustment—even in the absence of any visible “bad news.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一事件完美地说明了当前的风险：当 VIX 处于如此低的水平时，下一次上涨并不会逐渐形成。它是突然发生的，几乎没有真正的调整窗口——即使在没有任何明显的 “坏消息” 的情况下也是如此。</p>
</div><p>This type of disruption can occur in the very short term or much later, making it almost impossible to time. This is precisely why buying puts in advance is not an effective solution: the passage of time (theta) mechanically erodes their value and can render them unusable long before the shock materializes. In this type of scenario, gold stands out as a preferred hedging instrument, as it provides protection against systemic and monetary risk without suffering this gradual destruction over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种类型的干扰可以在非常短的时间内发生，也可以在更晚的时候发生，使得时机几乎无法把握。这正是提前购买看跌期权不是有效解决方案的原因：时间的推移（theta）机械性地侵蚀它们的价值，并可能在冲击发生之前很久就使其失去效用。在这种情况下，黄金作为一种优选的对冲工具脱颖而出，因为它能够提供对系统性和货币风险的保护，而不会随着时间的推移而遭受这种逐渐的损耗。</p>
</div><p>This makes it much easier to understand gold's new all-time high at the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得理解黄金在今年年底创下的新历史高点变得更加容易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/or-usd.png" alt="" original-src="https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/divergence-volatilite-or/or-usd.png"/></p>
<p>This rise does not reflect visible panic or immediate stress on the equity markets, but rather a much more subtle reading of risk by investors. Faced with artificially compressed volatility, a VIX maintained at abnormally low levels, and the prospect of a disruption that is impossible to time, traditional hedging instruments become ineffective. Buying protective options too early exposes investors to a gradual erosion of their value, while waiting for the signal often means arriving too late.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一上涨并不反映出股市的明显恐慌或即时压力，而是投资者对风险的更微妙解读。面对人为压缩的波动性、异常低水平维持的 VIX，以及无法把握的干扰前景，传统的对冲工具变得无效。过早购买保护性期权使投资者面临其价值逐渐侵蚀的风险，而等待信号往往意味着来得太晚。</p>
</div><p>In this context, physical gold stands out as an insurance policy outside the system: it does not depend on the precise timing of a shock or on the implied volatility of the equity markets. The yellow metal is thus capturing demand for long-term protection against monetary interventions, the fragility of volatility control, and the future cost of this forced stability. This record is therefore not a speculative excess, but the logical consequence of a market seeking lasting protection in an environment where risk is being pushed back, compressed, and made increasingly difficult to hedge with traditional instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，实物黄金作为一种系统外的保险政策脱颖而出：它不依赖于冲击的精确时机或股市的隐含波动性。因此，这种黄色金属正在捕捉对长期保护的需求，以应对货币干预、波动控制的脆弱性以及这种强制稳定的未来成本。因此，这一纪录并不是投机过剩，而是市场在寻求持久保护的环境中，风险被推回、压缩，并且越来越难以用传统工具对冲的逻辑结果。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>When Precious Metals Decode Market Interventions</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当贵金属解码市场干预时</p>
</div><p>Silver, Fibonacci And Hyperinflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银、斐波那契与恶性通货膨胀</p>
</div><p>Gold/Euro: Major Inflection Point, But Higher Prices Still Likely</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金/欧元：重大拐点，但价格仍可能上涨</p>
</div>

如何解释黄金与波动性之间的历史性分歧