<p>虽然卫星设计和制造商 <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) 今年表现强劲，但也必须指出，ASTS 股票的高度波动性可能会让许多期权交易者感到困惑。实际上，ASTS 在极端情况下是非遍历的。通俗来说，这意味着实际回报可能并不总是与预期的平均回报相符。</p>
<p>在期权交易中，非遍历性常常因为增强的波动性和到期日等因素而显露出其负面影响。在这种情况下，如果 ASTS 股票进入调整期——即使在更广泛的牛市背景下——这对特定定义的期权交易来说可能是灾难性的。这尤其残酷，因为基础公司正在 取得明显的基本进展。</p>
<p>那么，ASTS 股票为什么会下跌呢？一些市场悲观情绪可能与 内部人士抛售 有关。在 12 月，股权敞口的削减主要由卖方主导，无论是频率还是金额。也有可能由于年底临近，主要股东为了税务目的出售了股份。</p>
<p>现在，金融出版生态系统中的常见论点是，由于 AST SpaceMobile 拥有强大的业务——至少在实现卫星发射里程碑和获得重要合同方面——其证券在情境上被低估。问题是，在足够长的时间范围内，这种推理可能会偶然实现，尤其是在牛市中。然而，这种常见论点也是 <em>petitio principii</em> 或者说是循环论证的一个例子。</p>
<p>基本上，结论（ASTS 股票可能会更高）被悄悄地融入了前提（市场没有正确定价 AST SpaceMobile 的增长潜力）。实际上，前提承担了论证的大部分工作，但这个部分却几乎没有受到质疑。</p>
<p>毕竟，各位作者怎么知道 ASTS 股票确实被错误定价呢？这是我想要探讨的问题。</p>
<h2>确定 ASTS 股票的风险几何以做出更好的交易决策</h2>
<p>正如你可能想象的那样，我也认为 ASTS 股票目前被错误定价。然而，这是一种大胆的说法，不能仅凭权威来认可。作为此时的分析师，我需要提出一个合理的论据来支持这一错误定价的说法。</p>
<p>首先，我们必须量化我们所说的错误定价，以便进行测量并分配概率。使用 “被低估” 或 “强大机会” 等术语是修辞上的修饰，但它们是无界的，无法量化。价格走势也是无界的，因为理论上 ASTS 股票可以无限上涨。这就是我 将价格走势离散化为有界类别 的原因，分为 “上涨周” 和 “下跌周”。</p>
<p>其次，考虑分层框架是至关重要的。如果我们取一段 ASTS 股票价格数据的 10 周，期间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。但如果我们进行数百次滚动的 10 周试验，并将其堆叠在固定时间分布中呢？此时，最频繁、一致的行为将形成概率质量的凸起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="422" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>这些凸起代表风险几何，部分显示了市场买家的上升看涨情绪。更重要的是，风险几何揭示了买家可能转变为卖家的临界点。通过计算这个结构，我们知道可以在哪里施压——以及应该在哪里退缩。</p>
<p>在正常情况下，从当前价格（大约 $72）计算的 10 周回报将使峰值概率密度约为 $71.75，从而表明负偏见。然而，错误定价的原因在于，在过去的 10 周中，ASTS 股票呈现出 4-6-D 序列。在上述期间，ASTS 仅产生了四个上涨周，导致下行趋势。</p>
<p>根据这个设置，未来 10 周的范围可能在 $62 到 $92 之间，峰值概率密度出现在 $76 到 $81 之间。有效地说，这大约是 8.71% 的结构性套利。</p>
<h2>概率衰减定义交易理念</h2>
<p>根据上述市场情报，我认为最突出的交易是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 看涨期权价差。这笔交易需要支付净借记 $210，这也是可能损失的最大金额。如果 ASTS 股票在到期时突破 $80 行权价，最大利润为 $290，回报超过 138%。盈亏平衡点为 $77.10，使得交易更加可口。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>当然，我喜欢 75/80 看涨期权价差的主要原因是峰值概率密度概念。在接下来的 10 周内，ASTS 股票最有可能在 $76 到 $81 之间波动。并不是说超出这个范围的价格不可实现；只是由于概率衰减的加速，这些价格实现的可能性较小。</p>
<p>考虑到在 $80 到 $85 之间，概率密度下降了 71.34%。在 $85 到 $90 之间，密度再次下降了 92.18%。换句话说，如果我们确信 ASTS 股票不会达到 $85 以上，那么购买超出 $85 的结果并没有太大意义。</p>
<p>随后，牛市看涨价差使我们能够购买与我们认为合理的概率曲线相关的溢价，同时允许我们出售其余不太可能实现的曲线。这样，我们就能买入现实，卖出幻想。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前自行进行尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：被低估的 Pinterest 股票为短期反弹提供了一个有趣的案例</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

ASTS

<p>本文讨论了 AST SpaceMobile Inc（NASDAQ:ASTS）的股票波动性和内部人士卖出，暗示可能存在定价错误。尽管基本面有所进展，ASTS 股票仍面临市场的悲观情绪。作者提出了一种交易策略，即在 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 牛市看涨期权价差，强调如果股票价格超过 80 美元，可能获得 138% 的收益。分析强调了风险几何和概率密度，以指导交易决策</p>

<p>While satellite designer and manufacturer <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) has been one of the strongest performers this year, it's also fair to point out that the highly kinetic movements of ASTS stock can throw many options traders off. Essentially, ASTS is non-ergodic to the extreme. Colloquially, this means that the actual return may not always match the expected average return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然卫星设计和制造商 <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) 今年表现强劲，但也必须指出，ASTS 股票的高度波动性可能会让许多期权交易者感到困惑。实际上，ASTS 在极端情况下是非遍历的。通俗来说，这意味着实际回报可能并不总是与预期的平均回报相符。</p>
</div><p>With options trading, non-ergodicity often rears its ugly head because of elements such as enhanced volatility and expiration dates. In this case, if ASTS stock enters a corrective period — even within the context of a broader bull market — it can be catastrophic for a specifically defined options trade. That can be quite cruel, especially because the underlying company is making clear fundamental progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在期权交易中，非遍历性常常因为增强的波动性和到期日等因素而显露出其负面影响。在这种情况下，如果 ASTS 股票进入调整期——即使在更广泛的牛市背景下——这对特定定义的期权交易来说可能是灾难性的。这尤其残酷，因为基础公司正在 取得明显的基本进展。</p>
</div><p>Why, then, is ASTS stock tumbling? Some of the market pessimism could be tied to insider selling. In December, equity exposure trimming has been dominated by sellers, both in terms of frequency and dollar amount. It's also quite possible that, due to the end of the year coming up, major stakeholders sold shares for tax purposes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，ASTS 股票为什么会下跌呢？一些市场悲观情绪可能与 内部人士抛售 有关。在 12 月，股权敞口的削减主要由卖方主导，无论是频率还是金额。也有可能由于年底临近，主要股东为了税务目的出售了股份。</p>
</div><p>Now, the common argument within the financial publication ecosystem is that, because AST SpaceMobile features a strong business — at least in terms of achieving satellite launch milestones and securing important contracts — its security is contextually undervalued. The thing is, over a long enough time horizon, such reasoning can coincidentally come true, especially in a bull market. However, this common argument is also an example of <em>petitio principii</em> or begging the question.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，金融出版生态系统中的常见论点是，由于 AST SpaceMobile 拥有强大的业务——至少在实现卫星发射里程碑和获得重要合同方面——其证券在情境上被低估。问题是，在足够长的时间范围内，这种推理可能会偶然实现，尤其是在牛市中。然而，这种常见论点也是 <em>petitio principii</em> 或者说是循环论证的一个例子。</p>
</div><p>Basically, the conclusion (that ASTS stock will likely rise higher) is smuggled into the premise (that the market is not properly pricing in AST SpaceMobile's growth potential). In effect, the premise does all the heavy lifting of the argument yet it is also this component that receives little to no interrogation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，结论（ASTS 股票可能会更高）被悄悄地融入了前提（市场没有正确定价 AST SpaceMobile 的增长潜力）。实际上，前提承担了论证的大部分工作，但这个部分却几乎没有受到质疑。</p>
</div><p>After all, how do the various authors know that ASTS stock is truly mispriced? This is the question that I'd like to address.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，各位作者怎么知道 ASTS 股票确实被错误定价呢？这是我想要探讨的问题。</p>
</div><h2>Identifying The Risk Geometry Of ASTS Stock To Make Better Trading Decisions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>确定 ASTS 股票的风险几何以做出更好的交易决策</h2>
</div><p>As you might imagine, I also believe that ASTS stock is currently mispriced. However, that's a bold statement and it cannot just be granted authority by fiat. Being the analyst at this hour, I need to present a sound argument for the alleged mispricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你可能想象的那样，我也认为 ASTS 股票目前被错误定价。然而，这是一种大胆的说法，不能仅凭权威来认可。作为此时的分析师，我需要提出一个合理的论据来支持这一错误定价的说法。</p>
</div><p>First, we must quantify what we mean by mispricing in order to measure it and to assign probabilities. Using terms like &#34;undervalued&#34; or &#34;strong opportunity&#34; are rhetorical embellishments but they're unbounded and cannot be quantified. Price action is also unbounded because ASTS stock can theoretically go to infinity. This is the reason why I discretize price action into bounded categories of &#34;up weeks&#34; and &#34;down weeks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我们必须量化我们所说的错误定价，以便进行测量并分配概率。使用 “被低估” 或 “强大机会” 等术语是修辞上的修饰，但它们是无界的，无法量化。价格走势也是无界的，因为理论上 ASTS 股票可以无限上涨。这就是我 将价格走势离散化为有界类别 的原因，分为 “上涨周” 和 “下跌周”。</p>
</div><p>Second, it's critical to think in hierarchical frameworks. If we took a single 10-week strand of ASTS stock price data, the return during this period won't tell us anything about the probability of performance of the other weeks in the dataset. But what if we took hundreds of rolling 10-week trials and stacked them in a fixed-time distribution? At that point, the most frequent, consistent behaviors will create bulges in probability mass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，考虑分层框架是至关重要的。如果我们取一段 ASTS 股票价格数据的 10 周，期间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。但如果我们进行数百次滚动的 10 周试验，并将其堆叠在固定时间分布中呢？此时，最频繁、一致的行为将形成概率质量的凸起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>These bulges represent risk geometry, which in part shows the ascending bullish emotions of market buyers. More importantly, risk geometry reveals the transition point where buyers are tempted to become sellers. By calculating this structure, we know where we can push — and where we should back off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些凸起代表风险几何，部分显示了市场买家的上升看涨情绪。更重要的是，风险几何揭示了买家可能转变为卖家的临界点。通过计算这个结构，我们知道可以在哪里施压——以及应该在哪里退缩。</p>
</div><p>Under normal circumstances, 10-week returns from the current price (roughly $72) would place peak probability density at around $71.75, thus indicating a negative bias. However, the mispricing comes from the fact that in the trailing 10 weeks, ASTS stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence. In the aforementioned period, ASTS only generated four up weeks, leading to a downward slope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情况下，从当前价格（大约 $72）计算的 10 周回报将使峰值概率密度约为 $71.75，从而表明负偏见。然而，错误定价的原因在于，在过去的 10 周中，ASTS 股票呈现出 4-6-D 序列。在上述期间，ASTS 仅产生了四个上涨周，导致下行趋势。</p>
</div><p>From this setup, the forward 10-week range would likely land between $62 and $92, with peak probability density materializing between $76 and $81. Effectively, that's a structural arbitrage of approximately 8.71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据这个设置，未来 10 周的范围可能在 $62 到 $92 之间，峰值概率密度出现在 $76 到 $81 之间。有效地说，这大约是 8.71% 的结构性套利。</p>
</div><h2>Probability Decay Defines The Trade Idea</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>概率衰减定义交易理念</h2>
</div><p>With the market intelligence above, the one trade that stands out to me is the 75/80 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This wager requires a net debit paid of $210, which is also the most that can be lost. Should ASTS stock rise through the $80 strike at expiration, the maximum profit clocks in at $290, a payout of over 138%. Breakeven lands at $77.10, making the trade even more palatable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述市场情报，我认为最突出的交易是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 看涨期权价差。这笔交易需要支付净借记 $210，这也是可能损失的最大金额。如果 ASTS 股票在到期时突破 $80 行权价，最大利润为 $290，回报超过 138%。盈亏平衡点为 $77.10，使得交易更加可口。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Of course, the main reason why I like the 75/80 call spread is the peak probability density concept. Over the next 10 weeks, ASTS stock should most likely traverse the range between $76 through $81. It's not that prices beyond this range are not achievable; it's just these prices are less likely to materialize due to the acceleration of probability decay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，我喜欢 75/80 看涨期权价差的主要原因是峰值概率密度概念。在接下来的 10 周内，ASTS 股票最有可能在 $76 到 $81 之间波动。并不是说超出这个范围的价格不可实现；只是由于概率衰减的加速，这些价格实现的可能性较小。</p>
</div><p>Consider that between $80 and $85, probability density drops by 71.34%. Between $85 and $90, density again plunges by 92.18%. Put another way, it doesn't make much sense to buy exposure to outcomes beyond $85 if we are convinced that ASTS stock won't get there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到在 $80 到 $85 之间，概率密度下降了 71.34%。在 $85 到 $90 之间，密度再次下降了 92.18%。换句话说，如果我们确信 ASTS 股票不会达到 $85 以上，那么购买超出 $85 的结果并没有太大意义。</p>
</div><p>Subsequently, the bull call spread allows us to buy the premiums associated with the probability curve that makes sense to us while allowing us to sell the rest of the curve that is less likely to materialize. This way, we buy reality and sell the fantasy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随后，牛市看涨价差使我们能够购买与我们认为合理的概率曲线相关的溢价，同时允许我们出售其余不太可能实现的曲线。这样，我们就能买入现实，卖出幻想。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前自行进行尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Deflated Pinterest Stock Presents An Intriguing Case For A Near-Term Comeback</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：被低估的 Pinterest 股票为短期反弹提供了一个有趣的案例</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期权专栏：从 AST SpaceMobile 股票中获取利润（而非假设）