<p>一只鲸鱼今天成为新闻焦点，它在持有大约 50 天后向币安存入了 300 万枚 TRUMP 代币，价值 1488 万美元。该地址最初以 2268 万美元的价格提取了相同的代币。通过这次存款，它锁定了大约 780 万美元的实现损失。</p>
<p>这笔转账表明的是放弃，而不是获利了结。尤其是因为退出发生在远低于原始入场价格的情况下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-at-4.02.24PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-at-4.02.24PM.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Lookonchain</p>
<p>然而，就山寨币而言，价格并没有在此之后急剧下跌。实际上，它保持在 4.80 美元以上——这表明市场吸收了一部分卖方流动。</p>
<p>这表明，尽管这一事件增加了短期供应风险，但并没有独立地迫使价格崩溃。</p>
<h2>突破减弱，阻力限制上涨</h2>
<p>TRUMP 的价格突破了下降通道，但未能在接近 5.20 美元至 5.25 美元的前上边界上维持接受。价格重新测试了这一区域并遭遇立即拒绝，确认其为活跃的阻力而非重新获得的支撑。</p>
<p>因此，价格回落至 5 美元——这一水平现在作为短期支点。</p>
<p>在这一水平以下，下行风险将向 4.80 美元开放，那里有之前的反应低点和流动性口袋。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，RSI 的读数为 46——远低于中性 50 的水平。尽管有突破尝试，这一读数确认了疲弱的看涨动能。然而，RSI 仍然远高于接近 30 的超卖阈值。这暗示了控制性卖出，而非恐慌性退出。</p>
<p>简单来说，价格走势暗示了一个失败的延续动作，而不是趋势反转。多头必须以动能重新夺回 5.20 美元，以无效化下行压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/TRUMPUSDT_2025-12-26_12-16-37.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/TRUMPUSDT_2025-12-26_12-16-37.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<h2>尽管结构疲弱，买方仍在吸收</h2>
<p>在 90 天的窗口内，现货买方 CVD 似乎以买方为主——这表明市场买单可能超过卖单，尽管最近遭遇拒绝。这种背离很重要，因为买方在结构减弱的情况下仍然继续介入。</p>
<p>然而，价格未能进一步上涨。这可能暗示吸收，而非激进需求。因此，买方可能是反应性的，而非基于信念的。这种行为通常在整合阶段出现，而非趋势反转。</p>
<p>只要 CVD 保持正值而价格未扩展，需求将抵消卖出，同时未能翻转动能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/OFFICIAL-TRUMP-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/OFFICIAL-TRUMP-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<h2>交易者真的对多头有信心吗？</h2>
<p>币安的顶级交易者定位显示，56.87% 的账户为多头，43.13% 的账户为空头，四小时时间框架下的多空比接近 1.32。</p>
<p>这种偏差反映了多头偏向，但并没有激进的信念。此外，比例通常快速波动，强调了活跃的头寸管理，而非坚定的方向承诺。</p>
<p>因此，交易者可能谨慎地倾向于多头，同时保持风险紧缩。空头迄今也未能占据主导地位，保持了价格的压缩。</p>
<p>这种平衡增加了对流动性驱动波动的敏感性。因此，头寸可能支持波动风险，而非趋势清晰度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-120555.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-120555.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<h2>流动性集群警告剧烈波动</h2>
<p>24 小时清算热图显示，价格在 5.10 美元至 5.20 美元之间存在密集的清算集群，而在 4.80 美元附近则流动性较薄。</p>
<p>这种分布增加了向上方流动性剧烈波动的概率。此外，集中的止损通常在低信念阶段吸引短期价格探测。</p>
<p>因此，TRUMP 的价格可能向上移动以测试上方流动性，然后选择方向。然而，未能清除该区域将增加向下风险，指向较低的流动性口袋。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Binance-TRUMP_USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2025-12-26_12_06_33.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Binance-TRUMP_USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2025-12-26_12_06_33.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>总之，TRUMP 的价格在未能重新夺回 5.20 美元后仍然脆弱，结构倾向于进一步的下行压力。</p>
<p>尽管买方继续吸收卖出订单，但需求迄今未能产生任何上涨扩展。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>未能重新夺回上方阻力使 TRUMP 在结构上保持疲弱，价格走势在短期内倾向于延续而非恢复。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管买方继续吸收卖方流动，但他们的活动缺乏动能。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>一位大户在币安存入了 300 万枚 TRUMP 代币，锁定了 780 万美元的损失，显示出市场的投降。尽管如此，TRUMP 的价格仍保持在 4.80 美元以上，表明市场正在吸收卖方流动。价格未能维持在 5.20 美元以上，面临阻力并回落至 5 美元附近。相对强弱指数（RSI）显示出疲弱的上涨动能。买方正在吸收卖单，但需求缺乏动能。流动性聚集暗示可能出现剧烈波动。TRUMP 的价格仍然脆弱，结构上倾向于下行压力</p>

<p>A whale is in the news today after it deposited 3 million TRUMP tokens, worth $14.88 million, into Binance after holding for roughly 50 days.The address initially withdrew the same tokens for $22.68 million. By making this deposit, it locked in a realized loss of approximately $7.8 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一只鲸鱼今天成为新闻焦点，它在持有大约 50 天后向币安存入了 300 万枚 TRUMP 代币，价值 1488 万美元。该地址最初以 2268 万美元的价格提取了相同的代币。通过这次存款，它锁定了大约 780 万美元的实现损失。</p>
</div><p>This transfer signals capitulation, rather than profit-taking. Especially since the exit occurred far below the original entry price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔转账表明的是放弃，而不是获利了结。尤其是因为退出发生在远低于原始入场价格的情况下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-at-4.02.24PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-at-4.02.24PM.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Lookonchain</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Lookonchain</p>
</div><p>As far as the altcoin is concerned, however, the price did not collapse sharply following the same. In fact, it held on above $4.80 – A sign that the market absorbsed a portion of the sell-side flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，就山寨币而言，价格并没有在此之后急剧下跌。实际上，它保持在 4.80 美元以上——这表明市场吸收了一部分卖方流动。</p>
</div><p>What this suggested is that while this event increased short-term supply risk, it did not independently force a breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，尽管这一事件增加了短期供应风险，但并没有独立地迫使价格崩溃。</p>
</div><h2>Breakout fades as resistance caps upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>突破减弱，阻力限制上涨</h2>
</div><p>TRUMP’s price broke above the descending channel, but failed to sustain acceptance above the former upper boundary near $5.20–$5.25. The price retested this zone and faced immediate rejection, confirming it as active resistance rather than reclaimed support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TRUMP 的价格突破了下降通道，但未能在接近 5.20 美元至 5.25 美元的前上边界上维持接受。价格重新测试了这一区域并遭遇立即拒绝，确认其为活跃的阻力而非重新获得的支撑。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, the price rolled back towards $5 – A level which now acts as a short-term pivot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，价格回落至 5 美元——这一水平现在作为短期支点。</p>
</div><p>Below this level, downside risk opens towards $4.80, where prior reaction lows and liquidity pockets sit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一水平以下，下行风险将向 4.80 美元开放，那里有之前的反应低点和流动性口袋。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the RSI had a reading of 46 – Well below the neutral 50-mark. This reading confirmed weak bullish momentum, despite the breakout attempt.However, the RSI was still well above the oversold threshold near 30. This hinted at controlled selling, rather than panic-driven exits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，RSI 的读数为 46——远低于中性 50 的水平。尽管有突破尝试，这一读数确认了疲弱的看涨动能。然而，RSI 仍然远高于接近 30 的超卖阈值。这暗示了控制性卖出，而非恐慌性退出。</p>
</div><p>To put it simply, the price action hinted at a failed continuation move, not trend reversal. Bulls must reclaim $5.20 with momentum to invalidate downside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，价格走势暗示了一个失败的延续动作，而不是趋势反转。多头必须以动能重新夺回 5.20 美元，以无效化下行压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/TRUMPUSDT_2025-12-26_12-16-37.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/TRUMPUSDT_2025-12-26_12-16-37.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><h2>Buyers still absorb despite weak structure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管结构疲弱，买方仍在吸收</h2>
</div><p>Spot taker CVD over the 90-day window seemed to be buyer-dominant – A sign that market buy orders may be outweighing sell orders, despite recent rejections.This divergence matters because buyers continue to step in even as structure weakens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 90 天的窗口内，现货买方 CVD 似乎以买方为主——这表明市场买单可能超过卖单，尽管最近遭遇拒绝。这种背离很重要，因为买方在结构减弱的情况下仍然继续介入。</p>
</div><p>However, the price has failed to expand higher. This might allude to absorption, rather than aggressive demand. Therefore, buyers may be reactive, not conviction-driven. Such a behavior often emerges during consolidation phases, rather than trend reversals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，价格未能进一步上涨。这可能暗示吸收，而非激进需求。因此，买方可能是反应性的，而非基于信念的。这种行为通常在整合阶段出现，而非趋势反转。</p>
</div><p>As long as the CVD stays positive without price expansion, demand will offset selling while failing to flip momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要 CVD 保持正值而价格未扩展，需求将抵消卖出，同时未能翻转动能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/OFFICIAL-TRUMP-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/OFFICIAL-TRUMP-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><h2>Are traders really confident long?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易者真的对多头有信心吗？</h2>
</div><p>Binance’s top trader positioning revealed 56.87% long accounts versus 43.13% short accounts, producing a long/short ratio near 1.32 on the four-hour timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>币安的顶级交易者定位显示，56.87% 的账户为多头，43.13% 的账户为空头，四小时时间框架下的多空比接近 1.32。</p>
</div><p>This skew reflected a long bias, but not aggressive conviction. Moreover, the ratio usually fluctuates quickly, underlining active position management rather than firm directional commitment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种偏差反映了多头偏向，但并没有激进的信念。此外，比例通常快速波动，强调了活跃的头寸管理，而非坚定的方向承诺。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, traders might be leaning long cautiously, while keeping risk tight. Shorts have also failed to dominate so far, keeping the price compressed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，交易者可能谨慎地倾向于多头，同时保持风险紧缩。空头迄今也未能占据主导地位，保持了价格的压缩。</p>
</div><p>Such a balance increases sensitivity to liquidity-driven moves. Consequently, the positioning might be supporting volatility risk, rather than trend clarity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种平衡增加了对流动性驱动波动的敏感性。因此，头寸可能支持波动风险，而非趋势清晰度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-120555.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-26-120555.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><h2>Liquidity clusters warn of sharp moves</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>流动性集群警告剧烈波动</h2>
</div><p>The 24-hour liquidation heatmap highlighted dense liquidation clusters above the price between $5.10 and $5.20, while thinner liquidity lay below near $4.80.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>24 小时清算热图显示，价格在 5.10 美元至 5.20 美元之间存在密集的清算集群，而在 4.80 美元附近则流动性较薄。</p>
</div><p>This distribution increases the probability of sharp moves towards overhead liquidity. Moreover, clustered stops often attract short-term price probes during low-conviction phases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分布增加了向上方流动性剧烈波动的概率。此外，集中的止损通常在低信念阶段吸引短期价格探测。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, TRUMP’s price may gravitate upwards to test overhead liquidity before choosing direction. However, failure to clear that zone would raise downside risk towards lower liquidity pockets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，TRUMP 的价格可能向上移动以测试上方流动性，然后选择方向。然而，未能清除该区域将增加向下风险，指向较低的流动性口袋。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Binance-TRUMP_USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2025-12-26_12_06_33.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Binance-TRUMP_USDT-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2025-12-26_12_06_33.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>In conclusion, TRUMP’s price remains vulnerable after failing to reclaim $5.20, with the structure favoring further downside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，TRUMP 的价格在未能重新夺回 5.20 美元后仍然脆弱，结构倾向于进一步的下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Although buyers continue to absorb sell orders, demand hasn’t been generating any upside expansion so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管买方继续吸收卖出订单，但需求迄今未能产生任何上涨扩展。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Failure to reclaim overhead resistance keeps TRUMP structurally weak, with price action favoring continuation rather than recovery in the near term.</em></li>
<li><em>Although buyers continue to absorb sell-side flow, their activity lacks momentum.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>未能重新夺回上方阻力使 TRUMP 在结构上保持疲弱，价格走势在短期内倾向于延续而非恢复。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管买方继续吸收卖方流动，但他们的活动缺乏动能。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

价值 1480 万美元的大额交易活动对 TRUMP 的价格施加了压力，但下一个目标是 4.80 美元吗？