<p>比特币目前正处于近期历史上最深的修正之一。</p>
<p>这世界上最大的加密货币已从最高点 126,000 美元跌至 100,000 美元以下——这是它大约一年前首次突破的阈值。根据最新报道，其估值接近 87,000 美元，市场情绪最近保持脆弱，多项指标暗示图表上存在进一步下行风险。</p>
<h2>分形模式指向更深的下跌</h2>
<p>根据比特币重复周期指标，该指标历史上准确追踪了资产的牛市和熊市阶段，比特币终于进入了熊市区域。</p>
<p>该模式正确识别了 10 月 10 日的市场峰值及其随后的下跌。根据这一分析，熊市阶段可能会持续到 2026 年 10 月 16 日。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>根据 João Wedson 的说法，分形模型预测潜在底部在 40,000 美元到 45,000 美元之间。然而，他警告说，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“这不是固定规则，也不是确定的价格预测。它代表了市场周期的分形韵律——比特币历史上更常尊重这一点，而不是忽视。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>不过，这种下跌的可能性仍然备受争议。事实上，几位分析师认为，比特币的四年周期——长期以来被视为主要市场波动的驱动因素——已经大幅减弱或完全消失。</p>
<h2>历史背景——小幅修正还是重大周期？</h2>
<p>比特币的 [BTC] 当前走势与基于四年模式的 2021 年周期密切相关。然而，历史数据也突显了一个重要的区别。</p>
<p>在比特币的历史上，小幅修正阶段通常保持在 35% 的下跌范围内。然而，2021 年的熊市则不同。特别是因为它代表了一次重大周期修正，最终使比特币从 69,000 美元的峰值下跌了 77%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>比特币当前从 126,000 美元的 32% 回撤落在这些小幅修正的典型范围内。</p>
<p>这意味着下跌可能接近其自然底部。然而，如果分形预测准确，比特币跌至 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元区间，总下跌幅度将达到 64% 至 68%。这将表明一次重大周期修正，而不是小幅回调。</p>
<h2>为什么这次可能不同</h2>
<p>不过，关键的链外指标表明如此极端的走势不太可能。</p>
<p>例如——累积/分配（A/D）趋势未显示出强烈的卖压迹象。在 2021 年，比特币的下跌与明显的分配相吻合，因为链外交易量从 980 万 BTC 降至大约 400 万 BTC。</p>
<p>相反，目前的交易量几乎没有变化——仅从 1763 万 BTC 滑落至 1752 万 BTC。这一发现未能确认重大分配阶段。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>移动平均收敛发散（MACD）似乎也传达了一个更微妙的故事。</p>
<p>尽管仍然发出看跌信号，但 MACD 直方图已从深红色转变为较浅的色调——这一过渡通常预示着看涨的恢复。</p>
<h2>机构差异是什么？</h2>
<p>自 2021 年以来，全球经济条件发生了显著变化，特别是在主权和机构参与方面。</p>
<p>比特币的采用已变得更加主流。这可以通过在包括美国和香港在内的主要司法管辖区批准和推出现货比特币 ETF 来证明。</p>
<p>仅美国的机构需求就推动了约 1165.8 亿美元流入加密货币。同时，全球 M2 货币供应量也扩展至约 147 万亿美元。</p>
<p>历史上，这种流动性扩张流入风险资产——这一动态可能实质性支持比特币的恢复，并挑战看跌的分形叙事。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>重复的分形模式似乎表明比特币在接下来的十个月可能保持看跌状态。</em></li>
<li><em>不断增长的机构需求和扩大的全球流动性可能会抵消下行压力。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币的分形模式暗示到 2026 年可能会下跌至 40,000 至 45,000 美元，表明一个重大周期修正。然而，分析师们对这一下跌的可能性存在争议，指出四年周期的减弱和链外指标的稳定。机构需求和全球流动性扩张可能会抵消看跌压力，挑战分形叙述</p>

<p>Bitcoin is in the middle of one of its deepest corrections in recent history right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币目前正处于近期历史上最深的修正之一。</p>
</div><p>The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen from an ATH of $126,000 to below $100,000 – A threshold it first crossed roughly a year ago. Valued at close to $87k at press time, the market sentiment has remained fragile lately, with multiple indicators hinting at further downside risk on the charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这世界上最大的加密货币已从最高点 126,000 美元跌至 100,000 美元以下——这是它大约一年前首次突破的阈值。根据最新报道，其估值接近 87,000 美元，市场情绪最近保持脆弱，多项指标暗示图表上存在进一步下行风险。</p>
</div><h2>Fractal pattern points to deeper decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分形模式指向更深的下跌</h2>
</div><p>According to the Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator that has historically tracked the asset’s bullish and bearish phases with notable accuracy, Bitcoin has finally entered bearish territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据比特币重复周期指标，该指标历史上准确追踪了资产的牛市和熊市阶段，比特币终于进入了熊市区域。</p>
</div><p>The pattern correctly identified the 10 October market peak and its subsequent decline. Based on this analysis, the bearish phase could extend until 16 October, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该模式正确识别了 10 月 10 日的市场峰值及其随后的下跌。根据这一分析，熊市阶段可能会持续到 2026 年 10 月 16 日。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>According to João Wedson, the fractal model projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $45,000. However, he cautioned,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 João Wedson 的说法，分形模型预测潜在底部在 40,000 美元到 45,000 美元之间。然而，他警告说，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles—something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“这不是固定规则，也不是确定的价格预测。它代表了市场周期的分形韵律——比特币历史上更常尊重这一点，而不是忽视。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The likelihood of such a decline remains hotly debated though. In fact, several analysts contend that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle—long considered a driver of major market swings—has weakened considerably or disappeared entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这种下跌的可能性仍然备受争议。事实上，几位分析师认为，比特币的四年周期——长期以来被视为主要市场波动的驱动因素——已经大幅减弱或完全消失。</p>
</div><h2>Historical context – Minor correction or major cycle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史背景——小幅修正还是重大周期？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] prevailing movement tracks closely with the 2021 cycle based on the four-year pattern. However, historical data also highlighted an important distinction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的 [BTC] 当前走势与基于四年模式的 2021 年周期密切相关。然而，历史数据也突显了一个重要的区别。</p>
</div><p>Throughout Bitcoin’s history, minor corrective phases have typically remained within a 35% decline range. The 2021 bear market was different though. Especially since it represented a major cycle correction that ultimately shed 77% from Bitcoin’s $69,000-peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特币的历史上，小幅修正阶段通常保持在 35% 的下跌范围内。然而，2021 年的熊市则不同。特别是因为它代表了一次重大周期修正，最终使比特币从 69,000 美元的峰值下跌了 77%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s current 32% retracement from $126,000 falls within the typical range of these minor corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币当前从 126,000 美元的 32% 回撤落在这些小幅修正的典型范围内。</p>
</div><p>This means the decline may be nearing its natural bottom. However, if the fractal projection proves accurate and Bitcoin drops to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the total decline would reach 64% to 68%. This would be indicative of a major cycle correction, rather than a minor pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着下跌可能接近其自然底部。然而，如果分形预测准确，比特币跌至 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元区间，总下跌幅度将达到 64% 至 68%。这将表明一次重大周期修正，而不是小幅回调。</p>
</div><h2>Why this time may be different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这次可能不同</h2>
</div><p>Key off-chain metrics suggest such an extreme move is less likely though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，关键的链外指标表明如此极端的走势不太可能。</p>
</div><p>For example – The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) trend revealed no strong signs of aggressive selling pressure. In 2021, Bitcoin’s decline coincided with clear distribution as off-chain volume fell from 9.8 million BTC to roughly 4 million BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如——累积/分配（A/D）趋势未显示出强烈的卖压迹象。在 2021 年，比特币的下跌与明显的分配相吻合，因为链外交易量从 980 万 BTC 降至大约 400 万 BTC。</p>
</div><p>On the contrary, the current traded volume has barely budged – Slipping only from 17.63 million BTC to 17.52 million BTC. This finding fails to confirm a major distribution phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，目前的交易量几乎没有变化——仅从 1763 万 BTC 滑落至 1752 万 BTC。这一发现未能确认重大分配阶段。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also seemed to relay a more nuanced story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>移动平均收敛发散（MACD）似乎也传达了一个更微妙的故事。</p>
</div><p>While still flashing bearish signals, the MACD histogram has shifted from deep red to lighter shades – A transition that often precedes bullish recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管仍然发出看跌信号，但 MACD 直方图已从深红色转变为较浅的色调——这一过渡通常预示着看涨的恢复。</p>
</div><h2>What is the institutional difference?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机构差异是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Global economic conditions have shifted meaningfully since 2021, particularly regarding sovereign and institutional participation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2021 年以来，全球经济条件发生了显著变化，特别是在主权和机构参与方面。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin adoption has become more mainstream. This can be evidenced by the approval and launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in major jurisdictions including the United States and Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的采用已变得更加主流。这可以通过在包括美国和香港在内的主要司法管辖区批准和推出现货比特币 ETF 来证明。</p>
</div><p>U.S institutional demand alone has driven an estimated $116.58 billion into the crypto. Meanwhile, global M2 money supply has expanded to approximately $147 trillion as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅美国的机构需求就推动了约 1165.8 亿美元流入加密货币。同时，全球 M2 货币供应量也扩展至约 147 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Historically, such liquidity expansion flows into risk assets – A dynamic that could materially support Bitcoin’s recovery and challenge the bearish fractal narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，这种流动性扩张流入风险资产——这一动态可能实质性支持比特币的恢复，并挑战看跌的分形叙事。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>A repeating fractal pattern seemed to suggest Bitcoin may remain bearish for the next ten months.</em></li>
<li><em>Growing institutional demand and expanding global liquidity could counterbalance downside pressure.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>重复的分形模式似乎表明比特币在接下来的十个月可能保持看跌状态。</em></li>
<li><em>不断增长的机构需求和扩大的全球流动性可能会抵消下行压力。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币的分形预测显示，到 2026 年价格将达到 45,000 美元，但图表并不认同这一预测！