<p>以太坊在 12 月大部分时间都处于压力之下，最近跌破 3000 美元的情况在投资者的持仓上留下了明显的痕迹。</p>
<p>链上数据现在显示网络的盈利能力显著恶化，持有盈利的 ETH 供应比例降至 60% 以下。同时，机构需求也有所减少，Glassnode 的数据表明，零售盈利能力和机构参与以太坊的情况同时减弱。</p>
<p><strong>以太坊盈利供应比例降至 60% 以下</strong></p>
<p>以太坊盈利供应比例的下降是以太坊压力的最明显信号之一。以太坊的投资者已经陷入更深的亏损，这反映了最近的价格走势。</p>
<p>谈到价格走势，以太坊在 12 月 22 日最初重新夺回了 3000 美元的价格水平。在此期间，持有盈利的 ETH 供应比例重新回升至 60% 以上，最高达到 63%。然而，这一突破仅持续了很短的时间，价格在几个小时后又跌回 3000 美元以下。</p>
<p>当 ETH 再次跌破 3000 美元时，持有未实现收益的供应比例降至 60% 以下，较 12 月初的 70% 以上有所下降。这一下降表明，回调不仅限于最近的买家，已经开始影响到本月初积累的投资者。</p>
<p><em>ETH 盈利供应比例。来源：Glassnode</em></p>
<p><strong>ETF 净流出表明机构参与减弱</strong></p>
<p>链上盈利能力和价格走势的疲软也反映了 ETF 市场的趋势。Glassnode 的另一项数据指标显示，自 11 月初以来，美国现货以太坊 ETF 的 30 天移动平均净流量已转为负值并保持在此水平。这种持续的流出表明机构交易者的参与和脱离处于低迷阶段。</p>
<p>下面的 ETF 图表显示，支持以太坊在 8 月创下新高的资金流入已经减弱，取而代之的是 11 月和 12 月的持续流出。这对价格走势至关重要，因为 ETF 需求一直是增量买入的关键来源。随着这一买盘的减弱，以太坊在吸收卖方压力方面遇到了困难，导致其未能维持在 3000 美元以上。</p>
<p><em>ETH：美国现货 ETF 净流量。来源：Glassnode</em></p>
<p>负的 ETF 净流量与以太坊最近的价格行为相结合，有助于解释未实现亏损的上升。有趣的是，各种链上数据来源还揭示了不同的鲸鱼地址在现货 ETF 之外减少其对以太坊的敞口。</p>
<p>例如，Lookonchain 最近强调了一笔被认为与 Erik Voorhees 相关的钱包的活动，该钱包在过去两周内将 4619 ETH（价值约 1342 万美元）兑换成比特币现金（BCH），而在此之前该钱包已近九年未活跃。Voorhees 后来回应澄清该钱包并不属于他，他也不持有任何比特币现金。</p>
<p>Lookonchain 还指出了 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 的卖压，他在过去一周内总共抛售了 1871 ETH，价值约 553 万美元。</p>
<p><em>图片来自 Unsplash，图表来自 TradingView</em></p>

ETHE

<p>以太坊价格跌破 3000 美元导致投资者损失加剧，盈利能力降至 60% 以下。机构需求减少，自 11 月以来，ETF 净流出呈现负值。链上数据显示鲸鱼地址减少了持仓，进一步加大了卖方压力。这一下降反映出零售和机构参与的减弱，影响了以太坊维持其价格水平的能力</p>

<p>Ethereum has spent much of December under pressure, and the recent fall below $3,000 has left a visible mark on investor positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊在 12 月大部分时间都处于压力之下，最近跌破 3000 美元的情况在投资者的持仓上留下了明显的痕迹。</p>
</div><p>On-chain data now shows a notable deterioration in profitability across the network, with the share of ETH supply sitting in profit falling below 60%. At the same time, institutional demand has decreased, with data from Glassnode showing how both retail profitability and institutional participation in Ethereum have weakened simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上数据现在显示网络的盈利能力显著恶化，持有盈利的 ETH 供应比例降至 60% 以下。同时，机构需求也有所减少，Glassnode 的数据表明，零售盈利能力和机构参与以太坊的情况同时减弱。</p>
</div><p><strong>Ethereum’s Percent Supply In Profit Falls Below 60%</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>以太坊盈利供应比例降至 60% 以下</strong></p>
</div><p>The drop in Ethereum’s percent supply in profit has been one of the clearest signals of stress for Ethereum. Ethereum’s investors have fallen into deeper losses, and this is a reflection of recent price action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊盈利供应比例的下降是以太坊压力的最明显信号之一。以太坊的投资者已经陷入更深的亏损，这反映了最近的价格走势。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of price action, Ethereum had initially reclaimed the $3,000 price level on December 22. During this time, the percentage of ETH supply in profit pushed back above 60% and reached as high as 63%. However, this break was for only a very brief time, and price action fell back below $3,000 after just a few hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到价格走势，以太坊在 12 月 22 日最初重新夺回了 3000 美元的价格水平。在此期间，持有盈利的 ETH 供应比例重新回升至 60% 以上，最高达到 63%。然而，这一突破仅持续了很短的时间，价格在几个小时后又跌回 3000 美元以下。</p>
</div><p>As ETH broke below $3,000 again, the share of supply held at unrealized gains fell under 60%, down from above 70% earlier in December. This fall shows that the pullback has not been limited to recent buyers but has begun to impact investors who accumulated during the beginning of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 ETH 再次跌破 3000 美元时，持有未实现收益的供应比例降至 60% 以下，较 12 月初的 70% 以上有所下降。这一下降表明，回调不仅限于最近的买家，已经开始影响到本月初积累的投资者。</p>
</div><p><em>ETH Percent Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>ETH 盈利供应比例。来源：Glassnode</em></p>
</div><p><strong>ETF Net Outflows Indicate Waning Institutional Participation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>ETF 净流出表明机构参与减弱</strong></p>
</div><p>The weakness in on-chain profitability and price action is also a reflection of trends in the ETF market. Another data metric from Glassnode shows that since early November, the 30-day moving average of net flows into US Spot Ethereum ETFs has turned negative and remained there. This persistence of outflows points to a phase of muted participation and disengagement from institutional traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上盈利能力和价格走势的疲软也反映了 ETF 市场的趋势。Glassnode 的另一项数据指标显示，自 11 月初以来，美国现货以太坊 ETF 的 30 天移动平均净流量已转为负值并保持在此水平。这种持续的流出表明机构交易者的参与和脱离处于低迷阶段。</p>
</div><p>The ETF chart below shows that inflows, which supported Ethereum’s push to new all-time highs in August, have faded, replaced by continued outflows through November and December. This matters for price action because ETF demand has been a key source of incremental buying. As that bid has weakened, Ethereum has struggled to absorb sell-side pressure, contributing to its failure to hold above $3,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的 ETF 图表显示，支持以太坊在 8 月创下新高的资金流入已经减弱，取而代之的是 11 月和 12 月的持续流出。这对价格走势至关重要，因为 ETF 需求一直是增量买入的关键来源。随着这一买盘的减弱，以太坊在吸收卖方压力方面遇到了困难，导致其未能维持在 3000 美元以上。</p>
</div><p><em>ETH: US Spot ETF Net Flows. Source: Glassnode</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>ETH：美国现货 ETF 净流量。来源：Glassnode</em></p>
</div><p>The combination of negative ETF net flows and Ethereum’s recent price behaviorhelps explain rising unrealized losses. Interestingly, various on-chain data sources also reveal different instances of whale addresses reducing their exposure to Ethereum outside of spot ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>负的 ETF 净流量与以太坊最近的价格行为相结合，有助于解释未实现亏损的上升。有趣的是，各种链上数据来源还揭示了不同的鲸鱼地址在现货 ETF 之外减少其对以太坊的敞口。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Lookonchain recently highlighted activity from a wallet believed to be linked to Erik Voorhees, which swapped 4,619 ETH, valued at about $13.42 million, into Bitcoin Cash (BCH) over the past two weeks after having been inactive for nearly nine years. Voorhees later responded by clarifying that the wallet does not belong to him and that he does not hold any Bitcoin Cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Lookonchain 最近强调了一笔被认为与 Erik Voorhees 相关的钱包的活动，该钱包在过去两周内将 4619 ETH（价值约 1342 万美元）兑换成比特币现金（BCH），而在此之前该钱包已近九年未活跃。Voorhees 后来回应澄清该钱包并不属于他，他也不持有任何比特币现金。</p>
</div><p>Lookonchain also pointed to selling pressure from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who has offloaded a total of 1,871 ETH at about $5.53 million in the past week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lookonchain 还指出了 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 的卖压，他在过去一周内总共抛售了 1871 ETH，价值约 553 万美元。</p>
</div><p><em>Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来自 Unsplash，图表来自 TradingView</em></p>
</div>

以太坊投资者陷入更深的亏损——跌破 3000 美元意味着什么？