<p>市场做市商普遍预计，一旦黄金和白银达到顶峰，将会出现牛市反弹。</p>
<p>从技术角度来看，这一观点并非不切实际。例如，白银价格上涨至创纪录的 79 美元/盎司，使其相对强弱指数（RSI）深陷超买区域，接近 90 水平，这一点在极端的绿色增量中得到了体现。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，其他传统资产也正在形成类似的结构，显示出广泛的过度扩张。因此，资本回流比特币（BTC）的理由变得令人信服，进一步得到其横盘整理的支持。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-15.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-15.png"/></p>
<p>来源：埃隆·马斯克</p>
<p>也就是说，埃隆·马斯克已经提前提出了一个有效的反驳观点。</p>
<p>在他最新的推文中，他强调了白银的实用性，指出这不仅仅是一个投机交易，而是一个在多个行业中使用的关键工业金属。这一动态使得白银的创纪录反弹成为一个真正的风险点。</p>
<p>综合来看，传统资产的突破看起来远非随机。相反，它指向了日益上升的宏观压力。在这种情况下，考虑到比特币对宏观变化的敏感性，比特币是否正在为另一次 “闪电崩盘” 做准备？</p>
<h2><strong>宏观压力点在比特币接近 FOMC 时加剧</strong></h2>
<p>当前的局势正施压于一个最敏感的压力点。</p>
<p>截至目前，今年美国的宏观背景已经将市场牢牢推入风险规避模式。在这种环境下，加息可能是比特币投资者最不希望看到的事情。</p>
<p>与此同时，白银的最新反弹正好击中了痛点——通货膨胀。</p>
<p>从经济角度来看，白银价格目前约为 79 美元/盎司，关键行业的投入成本将会上升，增加了更广泛的通货膨胀风险，最终影响到日常消费者支出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/United_States_Inflation_Rate.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/United_States_Inflation_Rate.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Trading Economics</p>
<p>而时机也再糟糕不过。</p>
<p>从技术上讲，第四季度的通货膨胀有所缓解。然而，11 月份的通货膨胀率为 2.7%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标。现在，随着金属反弹的持续，另一次降息的可能性看起来越来越渺茫。</p>
<p>对于比特币而言，仅这一点就可能引发另一次风险规避的行情。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，当前市场的分歧不仅仅是一次投机行为。相反，它指向了更深层次的宏观压力，使比特币在 FOMC 会议临近之际面临另一次潜在的闪电崩盘的十字路口。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>传统资产的过度扩张突显了日益上升的宏观压力，使市场处于风险规避模式。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币的横盘整理，加上来自过度扩张资产的潜在资本轮换，使得牛市布局变得合理，但通货膨胀压力仍然使下行风险保持在高位。</em></li>
</ul>

BLSH

GBTC

<p>银价创下 79 美元/盎司的历史新高，预示着宏观经济压力加大，通胀风险依然存在。市场参与者预计，随着资金从像银这样的过度扩张资产中转移，比特币将迎来一波牛市。然而，由于通胀压力和宏观经济变化，比特币面临潜在的下行风险，尤其是在即将召开的 FOMC 会议前。埃隆·马斯克强调了银的工业用途，进一步增加了其投机性质的复杂性。总体而言，比特币正处于十字路口，既有看涨因素，也有看跌因素</p>

<p>Market makers largely expect a bull rally once gold and silver top out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场做市商普遍预计，一旦黄金和白银达到顶峰，将会出现牛市反弹。</p>
</div><p>From a technical angle, this view isn’t too far-fetched. For instance, silver’s move to a record $79/oz has pushed its RSI deep into overbought territory, climbing toward the 90 level, as reflected by an extreme green delta.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，这一观点并非不切实际。例如，白银价格上涨至创纪录的 79 美元/盎司，使其相对强弱指数（RSI）深陷超买区域，接近 90 水平，这一点在极端的绿色增量中得到了体现。</p>
</div><p>Notably, similar structures are forming across other legacy assets, signaling broad overextension. As a result, the case for capital rotating back into Bitcoin [BTC] becomes compelling, further supported by its sideways chop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，其他传统资产也正在形成类似的结构，显示出广泛的过度扩张。因此，资本回流比特币（BTC）的理由变得令人信服，进一步得到其横盘整理的支持。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-15.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-15.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Elon Musk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：埃隆·马斯克</p>
</div><p>That said, Elon Musk has already front-run a valid counterpoint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，埃隆·马斯克已经提前提出了一个有效的反驳观点。</p>
</div><p>In his latest tweet, he leaned into silver’s utility story, pointing out that it’s not just a speculative trade, but a key industrial metal used across multiple sectors. That dynamic makes silver’s record rally a real risk point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他最新的推文中，他强调了白银的实用性，指出这不仅仅是一个投机交易，而是一个在多个行业中使用的关键工业金属。这一动态使得白银的创纪录反弹成为一个真正的风险点。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, the breakout across legacy assets looks far from random. Instead, it points to rising macro stress. In this context, and given BTC’s sensitivity to macro shifts, is Bitcoin setting up for another “flash crash”?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，传统资产的突破看起来远非随机。相反，它指向了日益上升的宏观压力。在这种情况下，考虑到比特币对宏观变化的敏感性，比特币是否正在为另一次 “闪电崩盘” 做准备？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro stress points build as Bitcoin approaches FOMC</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏观压力点在比特币接近 FOMC 时加剧</strong></h2>
</div><p>The current setup is pressing on one of the most sensitive pressure points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的局势正施压于一个最敏感的压力点。</p>
</div><p>So far this year, the U.S. macro backdrop has already pushed markets firmly into risk-off mode. In that environment, an interest rate hike would likely be the last thing Bitcoin investors want on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，今年美国的宏观背景已经将市场牢牢推入风险规避模式。在这种环境下，加息可能是比特币投资者最不希望看到的事情。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, silver’s latest rally is hitting right where it hurts — Inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，白银的最新反弹正好击中了痛点——通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>From an economic standpoint, with silver prices now around $79/oz, input costs across key industries are set to rise, increasing the risk of broader inflation that ultimately filters down to everyday consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从经济角度来看，白银价格目前约为 79 美元/盎司，关键行业的投入成本将会上升，增加了更广泛的通货膨胀风险，最终影响到日常消费者支出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/United_States_Inflation_Rate.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/United_States_Inflation_Rate.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Trading Economics</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Trading Economics</p>
</div><p>And the timing couldn’t be worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而时机也再糟糕不过。</p>
</div><p>Technically, Q4 has shown some easing in inflation. Still, November’s inflation came in at 2.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Now, with the metal rally ongoing, another rate cut now looks increasingly off the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上讲，第四季度的通货膨胀有所缓解。然而，11 月份的通货膨胀率为 2.7%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标。现在，随着金属反弹的持续，另一次降息的可能性看起来越来越渺茫。</p>
</div><p>For Bitcoin, that alone could trigger another risk-off run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于比特币而言，仅这一点就可能引发另一次风险规避的行情。</p>
</div><p>In this context, the current market divergence isn’t just a speculative move. Instead, it points to deeper macro stress, putting Bitcoin at a crossroads for another potential flash crash as the FOMC meeting approaches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，当前市场的分歧不仅仅是一次投机行为。相反，它指向了更深层次的宏观压力，使比特币在 FOMC 会议临近之际面临另一次潜在的闪电崩盘的十字路口。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Overextension in legacy assets highlight rising macro stress, putting markets in risk-off mode.</em></li>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s sideways chop, combined with potential capital rotation from overextended assets, makes a bull setup plausible, but inflationary pressures keep downside risks elevated.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>传统资产的过度扩张突显了日益上升的宏观压力，使市场处于风险规避模式。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币的横盘整理，加上来自过度扩张资产的潜在资本轮换，使得牛市布局变得合理，但通货膨胀压力仍然使下行风险保持在高位。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

白银价格飙升，通胀压力迫近：比特币是否面临闪崩的风险？