<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>银价在波动下跌前触及每盎司 80 美元</li>
<li>本周关注美联储会议纪要</li>
<li>美元因降息预期承压</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
<p>周一，亚洲股市达到六周来的最高点，而美元在近三个月来的最低点附近徘徊，市场预期美联储明年将降息，这也引发了贵金属的激烈反弹。</p>
<p>银价在周一首次突破每盎司 80 美元大关后，迅速在波动交易中大幅下滑，而铂金和钯金在创下历史新高后也大幅下跌。黄金下跌近 1%，但由于美元疲软、避险需求和降息预期，今年多次突破历史高点。</p>
<p>Saxo 的首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示，今年贵金属受到降息的强劲推动和对地缘政治及财政不确定性的对冲影响。</p>
<p>“再加上供应担忧，这一走势变得抛物线式上升。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在银价方面，也提高了更高波动性的风险。短期内，风险主要是技术性和头寸驱动的。”</p>
<p>“然而，从大局来看，贵金属的基本面仍然看起来结构性支持，未来利率将更为宽松，财政和地缘政治的不安，以及持续的多样化需求。这意味着任何回调可能被视为长期投资者重建敞口的机会，” Chanana 说。</p>
<p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近，可能非常接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争的协议后，地缘政治再次成为投资者关注的焦点。</p>
<p>股票年末强劲表现</p>
<p>在股票方面，MSCI 亚太地区股票指数 (.MIAP00000PUS) 上涨 0.27%，创下自 10 月 3 日以来的最高点，为年末最后一周的强劲开局。该指数今年上涨超过 25%，受科技股推动，人工智能热潮牢牢吸引了投资者。</p>
<p>韩国 Kospi 指数上涨 1.5%，接近两个月来的最高点，使其年度涨幅达到惊人的 74%，有望创下自 1999 年以来最强的年度涨幅。日本日经指数下跌 0.4%，而台湾股票 TWSE:TAIEX 上涨 0.3%，创下历史新高。</p>
<p>投资者在假期缩短的一周内将关注美联储上次会议的纪要，预计将在周二公布。美国中央银行本月早些时候降息，并预计明年仅再降息一次，而交易员们已将至少两次降息计入价格。</p>
<p>IG 的市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 表示，市场将仔细研究会议纪要，以深入了解委员会在风险平衡和未来宽松时机上的辩论。</p>
<p>然后，焦点将转向新年即将公布的劳动力市场数据，包括非农就业人数，Sycamore 说。</p>
<p>“如果这些报告显示出明显的劳动力市场疲软，将增加美联储在 1 月 FOMC 会议上降息 25 个基点的可能性。”</p>
<p>疲软的日元找到支撑</p>
<p>在日本央行 12 月政策会议的稍微鹰派意见摘要公布后，日元兑美元上涨 0.2%，至 156.13。摘要显示，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步提高日本央行的政策利率。</p>
<p>日本央行本月早些时候在一个充分预告的举措中加息，但市场对随后暗示央行不急于再次加息的评论感到失望。这对日元造成压力，并引发交易员对干预的担忧，因为东京的官员上周发出了强烈的口头警告。</p>
<p>尽管如此，日元仍接近 11 月触及的每美元 157.9 的 10 个月低点，随着投资者削减其长期日元头寸，干预的风险依然存在。</p>
<p>美联储明年降息的前景使美元承压，而可能温和并愿意降息的新美联储主席的阴影也笼罩着市场。</p>
<p>美元指数衡量美元对六种竞争货币的表现，下降 0.08%，至 97.953，预计今年将下跌 9.7%，为 2017 年以来最大跌幅。</p>

明晟

<p>亚洲股市达到六周来的最高点，贵金属因市场对明年美联储降息的预期而创下纪录水平。银价在剧烈波动前一度达到每盎司 80 美元，而黄金和其他金属也出现了波动。美元走弱，日元在日本央行政策讨论中获得支撑。投资者关注美联储会议纪要和劳动力市场数据，以获取未来降息的线索。受科技股推动，MSCI 亚太指数上涨，而韩国的 Kospi 指数则大幅上涨。美元指数正朝着自 2017 年以来最大年度跌幅的方向发展</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Silver hits $80 per ounce before volatile drop</li>
<li>Fed minutes in focus this week</li>
<li>Dollar stays under pressure on rate cut wagers</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>银价在波动下跌前触及每盎司 80 美元</li>
<li>本周关注美联储会议纪要</li>
<li>美元因降息预期承压</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>Asian stocks were at six-week highs on Monday, while the dollar hovered near its lowest in almost three months on expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year, which have also sparked a fierce rally in precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，亚洲股市达到六周来的最高点，而美元在近三个月来的最低点附近徘徊，市场预期美联储明年将降息，这也引发了贵金属的激烈反弹。</p>
</div><p>Silver  climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time before sliding sharply lower in volatile trading on Monday, while platinum and palladium also fell sharply after hitting all-time highs. Gold  eased nearly 1% but has repeatedly breached record highs this year on dollar weakness, safe-haven demand and rate cut wagers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价在周一首次突破每盎司 80 美元大关后，迅速在波动交易中大幅下滑，而铂金和钯金在创下历史新高后也大幅下跌。黄金下跌近 1%，但由于美元疲软、避险需求和降息预期，今年多次突破历史高点。</p>
</div><p>Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said precious metals have been lifted this year by a powerful mix of rate-cut tailwinds and hedging against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Saxo 的首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示，今年贵金属受到降息的强劲推动和对地缘政治及财政不确定性的对冲影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Add supply worries and the move has turned parabolic. But the late-year, near-vertical surge, especially in silver, also raises the risk of higher volatility. Near-term, the risk is technical and positioning-led.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再加上供应担忧，这一走势变得抛物线式上升。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在银价方面，也提高了更高波动性的风险。短期内，风险主要是技术性和头寸驱动的。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;The big picture, however, for precious metals still looks structurally supportive with easier rates ahead, fiscal and geopolitical unease, and ongoing diversification demand. That means any pullbacks may be seen as opportunities for long-term investors to rebuild exposure,&#34; Chanana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，从大局来看，贵金属的基本面仍然看起来结构性支持，未来利率将更为宽松，财政和地缘政治的不安，以及持续的多样化需求。这意味着任何回调可能被视为长期投资者重建敞口的机会，” Chanana 说。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitics was back on investors' minds after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were &#34;getting a lot closer, maybe very close&#34; to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近，可能非常接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争的协议后，地缘政治再次成为投资者关注的焦点。</p>
</div><p>STRONG YEAR-END FOR STOCKS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票年末强劲表现</p>
</div><p>In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was 0.27% higher, hitting its highest since October 3 in a strong start to the last week of the year. The index has risen over 25% this year, boosted by technology stocks as AI mania firmly took hold of investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，MSCI 亚太地区股票指数 (.MIAP00000PUS) 上涨 0.27%，创下自 10 月 3 日以来的最高点，为年末最后一周的强劲开局。该指数今年上涨超过 25%，受科技股推动，人工智能热潮牢牢吸引了投资者。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's Kospi  rose 1.5% to a near two-month peak, taking its yearly gains to an eye-popping 74%, on pace for its strongest annual gain since 1999. Japan's Nikkei  slipped 0.4%, while Taiwan stocks TWSE:TAIEX rose 0.3% to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国 Kospi 指数上涨 1.5%，接近两个月来的最高点，使其年度涨幅达到惊人的 74%，有望创下自 1999 年以来最强的年度涨幅。日本日经指数下跌 0.4%，而台湾股票 TWSE:TAIEX 上涨 0.3%，创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Investor focus on the holiday-curtailed week will be on minutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank cut rates earlier this month and projected just one more cut for next year while traders have priced in at least two more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在假期缩短的一周内将关注美联储上次会议的纪要，预计将在周二公布。美国中央银行本月早些时候降息，并预计明年仅再降息一次，而交易员们已将至少两次降息计入价格。</p>
</div><p>Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said markets will scour the minutes for deeper insights into the committee debates on the balance of risks and the timing of future easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IG 的市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 表示，市场将仔细研究会议纪要，以深入了解委员会在风险平衡和未来宽松时机上的辩论。</p>
</div><p>The spotlight will then switch over to labour market data expected in the new year including non-farm payrolls, Sycamore said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，焦点将转向新年即将公布的劳动力市场数据，包括非农就业人数，Sycamore 说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If these reports show unambiguous labour market weakness, it will increase the likelihood that the Fed cuts rates by 25bp at its January FOMC meeting.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果这些报告显示出明显的劳动力市场疲软，将增加美联储在 1 月 FOMC 会议上降息 25 个基点的可能性。”</p>
</div><p>FRAIL YEN FINDS SUPPORT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲软的日元找到支撑</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen firmed 0.2% to 156.13 per U.S. dollar after a slightly hawkish summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in December showed on Monday. The summary showed many board members seeing the need for further increases to the BOJ's policy rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本央行 12 月政策会议的稍微鹰派意见摘要公布后，日元兑美元上涨 0.2%，至 156.13。摘要显示，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步提高日本央行的政策利率。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ hiked interest rates earlier this month in a well-telegraphed move but markets were left disappointed by the comments afterwards that suggested the central bank was in no rush to hike again. That weighed on the yen and raised intervention worries among traders as officials in Tokyo sent strong verbal warnings last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行本月早些时候在一个充分预告的举措中加息，但市场对随后暗示央行不急于再次加息的评论感到失望。这对日元造成压力，并引发交易员对干预的担忧，因为东京的官员上周发出了强烈的口头警告。</p>
</div><p>Still, the yen remains close to the 10-month low of 157.9 per U.S. dollar it hit in November and the risk of intervention lurks as investors cut their long yen positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，日元仍接近 11 月触及的每美元 157.9 的 10 个月低点，随着投资者削减其长期日元头寸，干预的风险依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The prospect of the Fed cutting rates next year has kept the dollar under pressure, while the spectre of a new Fed Chair that may be dovish and willing to lower rates looms large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储明年降息的前景使美元承压，而可能温和并愿意降息的新美联储主席的阴影也笼罩着市场。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, was 0.08% lower at 97.953, on track for a 9.7% drop for the year, its steepest since 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数衡量美元对六种竞争货币的表现，下降 0.08%，至 97.953，预计今年将下跌 9.7%，为 2017 年以来最大跌幅。</p>
</div>

亚洲股市上涨，贵金属因市场对美联储降息的预期而创下新高