<p>如果 Monero [XMR] 在 2025 年第四季度的趋势重演，可能会为后期的多头提供一个买入机会。与其他山寨币市场一样，圣诞节的反弹使其从 432 美元上涨了 7%，超过 460 美元。这是在比特币主导地位略微减弱后，给山寨币带来的反弹。</p>
<p>然而，XMR 的反弹也伴随着流动性不足和低交易量，如果这种情况持续到新年，可能会迅速逆转。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这种情况可能是短期多头的一个诱人入场点。</p>
<h2>XMR 会跌至 400-420 美元的支撑位吗？</h2>
<p>400-420 美元区域（白色）是 2025 年 5 月的价格高峰，也是 2025 年下半年仅在 12 月中旬突破的阻力区。</p>
<p>因此，捍卫该水平作为支撑可能会为 XMR 的下一轮反弹奠定基础。此外，价格区间与 50 日移动平均线（MA）相交。</p>
<p>在第四季度，价格曾多次反弹至 50 日 MA（白线）。因此，如果趋势重演，价格再次触及该水平，这可能是一个新的买入机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png"/></p>
<p>来源：XMR/USDT，TradingView</p>
<p>话虽如此，MACD 在撰写时正处于死亡交叉的边缘。这可能会将 XMR 拖低，可能会跌至移动平均线。事实上，10 月、11 月和 12 月的前几次死亡交叉信号都在移动平均线处减弱。</p>
<p>这进一步支持了上述论点，并呼吁后期多头保持耐心。短期目标将是 470 美元，暗示从支撑位潜在收益为 15%。</p>
<p>然而，若持续跌破 50 日移动平均线，将使该论点失效。</p>
<h2>目前市场尚未过热…</h2>
<p>更广泛的疲软市场情绪可能会在 2026 年初将 XMR 压低。然而，在撰写时，期货市场并未显现出这种风险。</p>
<p>事实上，几乎没有零售投资者在该资产上使用杠杆——缺乏狂热情绪，这表明 XMR 市场健康。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>过去，“过多的零售” 信号通常会伴随回调。</p>
<p>尽管如此，XMR 的市场情绪尚未完全进入积极区域以迎接另一波上涨。事实上，在圣诞周期间，情绪主要是负面的。如果情绪恢复到积极状态，可能会进一步增强复苏的机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Santiment</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>XMR 在圣诞周经历了一次温和的反弹，但后期多头仍可能获得新的买入机会。</em></li>
<li><em>期货市场健康，但市场情绪仍然疲软，难以实现可持续的复苏。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：所提供的信息不构成财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议，仅代表作者的观点</em></strong></p>

<p>Monero (XMR) 可能为后期多头提供买入机会，如果其 2025 年第四季度的趋势重演。尽管最近出现反弹，XMR 面临流动性不足和交易量低的问题，这可能会逆转涨幅。400 到 420 美元的支撑区间与 50 日移动平均线相一致，至关重要。MACD 中的死亡交叉暗示潜在的价格下跌，但如果支撑位保持，回升至 470 美元是可能的。市场情绪依然疲软，但期货市场稳定。投资者应保持耐心，关注积极情绪的转变</p>

<p>Monero [XMR] could offer late bulls a buying opportunity if its Q4 2025 trend repeats itself. Like the rest of the altcoin market, the Santa rally lifted it by 7% from $432 to over $460. This followed a slight easing in Bitcoin dominance that offered a relief rally for altcoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Monero [XMR] 在 2025 年第四季度的趋势重演，可能会为后期的多头提供一个买入机会。与其他山寨币市场一样，圣诞节的反弹使其从 432 美元上涨了 7%，超过 460 美元。这是在比特币主导地位略微减弱后，给山寨币带来的反弹。</p>
</div><p>However, XMR’s bounce also came with thin liquidity and low trading volumes, and could be quickly reversed if the conditions persist into the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，XMR 的反弹也伴随着流动性不足和低交易量，如果这种情况持续到新年，可能会迅速逆转。</p>
</div><p>Still, such a scenario could be a juicy entry point for near-term bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这种情况可能是短期多头的一个诱人入场点。</p>
</div><h2>Will XMR drop to $400-$420 support?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>XMR 会跌至 400-420 美元的支撑位吗？</h2>
</div><p>The $400-$420 area (white) was a May price peak and a resistance zone in H2 2025 that was only cleared in mid-December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>400-420 美元区域（白色）是 2025 年 5 月的价格高峰，也是 2025 年下半年仅在 12 月中旬突破的阻力区。</p>
</div><p>As such, defending the level as support could set XMR for the next leg of its rally. Additionally, the price zone converged with the 50-day Moving Average (MA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，捍卫该水平作为支撑可能会为 XMR 的下一轮反弹奠定基础。此外，价格区间与 50 日移动平均线（MA）相交。</p>
</div><p>Throughout Q4, the price bounced off the 50-day MA (white line). So, if the trend repeats itself and the price tag hits the level again, this could be a new buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第四季度，价格曾多次反弹至 50 日 MA（白线）。因此，如果趋势重演，价格再次触及该水平，这可能是一个新的买入机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png"/></p>
<p>Source: XMR/USDT, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：XMR/USDT，TradingView</p>
</div><p>That being said, the MACD was on the verge of a Death Cross at press time. This could drag XMR lower, likely to the Moving Average. In fact, the previous Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all eased at the Moving Average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，MACD 在撰写时正处于死亡交叉的边缘。这可能会将 XMR 拖低，可能会跌至移动平均线。事实上，10 月、11 月和 12 月的前几次死亡交叉信号都在移动平均线处减弱。</p>
</div><p>This further supported the aforementioned thesis and calls for patience for late bulls. The immediate target would be $470, alluding to potential gains of 15% from the support level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这进一步支持了上述论点，并呼吁后期多头保持耐心。短期目标将是 470 美元，暗示从支撑位潜在收益为 15%。</p>
</div><p>However, a sustained drop below the 50-day Moving Average would invalidate the thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，若持续跌破 50 日移动平均线，将使该论点失效。</p>
</div><h2>No overheated market yet…</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前市场尚未过热…</h2>
</div><p>A broader weak market sentiment could send XMR lower in early 2026. However, such a risk was not evident on the Futures market at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的疲软市场情绪可能会在 2026 年初将 XMR 压低。然而，在撰写时，期货市场并未显现出这种风险。</p>
</div><p>In fact, there haven’t been many retail investors jumping on the asset with leverage – A lack of euphoria that underlined a healthy market for XMR.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，几乎没有零售投资者在该资产上使用杠杆——缺乏狂热情绪，这表明 XMR 市场健康。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In the past, ‘too many retail’ signals were followed by a retracement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，“过多的零售” 信号通常会伴随回调。</p>
</div><p>Still, XMR’s market sentiment has not been fully into the positive territory for another upswing. In fact, the sentiment has been predominantly negative during the Christmas week. If it resets to positive, it could further bolster recovery odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，XMR 的市场情绪尚未完全进入积极区域以迎接另一波上涨。事实上，在圣诞周期间，情绪主要是负面的。如果情绪恢复到积极状态，可能会进一步增强复苏的机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Santiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Santiment</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>XMR saw a modest rally during Christmas week, but late bulls could still get a new buying opportunity.</em></li>
<li><em>The Futures market was healthy, but market sentiment has remained weak for a sustainable recovery.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>XMR 在圣诞周经历了一次温和的反弹，但后期多头仍可能获得新的买入机会。</em></li>
<li><em>期货市场健康，但市场情绪仍然疲软，难以实现可持续的复苏。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：所提供的信息不构成财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议，仅代表作者的观点</em></strong></p>
</div>

门罗币——为什么 XMR 的买家应该等待这个潜在的机会