<p>在我们即将结束 2025 年之际，人工智能泡沫几乎毫发无损地度过了这一年。不过，关于估值的担忧逐渐上升。在谈论这个问题时，可以公平地说，这一切将在 2026 年的讨论中占据重要地位。那么问题是，市场是否对人工智能的影响过于乐观？明年我们会看到现实的检验吗？</p>
<p>嗯，这确实是值得思考和考虑的事情。</p>
<p>对人工智能的简单理解是，它通过提高流程的效率和速度来提升生产力。让我们以榨橙汁为例。是的，我喜欢用水果作为例子。这总是让我想起这篇文章，解释当年的 LIBOR 丑闻。</p>
<p>但没错，榨橙汁。</p>
<p>假设你是一个榨橙汁的人，某天你宣布你将购买一台高科技、超快速的橙子去皮和榨汁机，以便准备好榨汁出售。人们对此感到兴奋，尽管你当时的利润只有 5 美元，他们还是给了你 500 美元。</p>
<p>人们并不在乎今天的钱，因为他们 “相信” 有了新技术，你将彻底改变榨橙汁的销售世界。</p>
<p>所以，这基本上就是我们在整个人工智能泡沫中所处的状态。现实的检验尚未发生，但只需时间问题，以下问题就会被提出：</p>
<ul>
<li>新技术真的那么好吗？</li>
<li>它真的提高了榨汁准备的效率和时间成本吗？</li>
<li>它真的帮助大幅提高了利润率吗？</li>
</ul>
<p>如果将这些问题转化为那些深陷人工智能投资的公司和企业，这些都是在某个时刻有效的问题。这可能是投资者明年所要求的。</p>
<p>在此之前，市场会为人工智能投资和增加资本支出而欢呼，认为这是革命性的。现在，这样做并不新鲜，而是相对 “普遍”。</p>
<p>就像新款 PlayStation 5 发布时一样。你是那个酷孩子，大家都想和你一起玩。但当其他人也开始拥有它时，你所拥有的就没有什么不同，人们反而更愿意待在自己家里。</p>
<p>因此，问题转向如何让人们，即投资者，留下来？是什么让你的产品更 “神奇” 和 “特别”？这就是生产力讨论的所在。</p>
<p>对于大型科技公司来说，讨论不再是关于在人工智能上的支出，而是关于谁能真正正确地使用这些技术以反映更好的底线。</p>
<p>对于谷歌和 Meta 来说，关键在于将其转化为广告收入，前者还将受到对其云业务的审查。到目前为止，他们是两家更容易展示如何提高生产力以及如何将其转化为整体收益的公司。</p>
<p>然后是亚马逊和微软，他们都投入了大量资本，试图说服投资者他们在人工智能领域保持竞争力。</p>
<p>现在，亚马逊在人工智能上的资本支出是所有公司中最多的，他们目前隐藏在背后的一个理由是，他们的收入流和生产力提升分布在多个方面。他们有仓库技术、机器人、网站和云系统，所有这些都与人工智能的进步相结合。因此，利润必须不断涌入，以说服投资者抵消他们的大量支出。</p>
<p>也就是说，亚马逊足够大，可以使自己免受依赖芯片制造商和外部数据中心的风险。他们确实在努力开发自己的芯片，并在后者上大力扩展。我上周在这里谈到了数据中心和对电力争夺的重要性。</p>
<p>至于微软，情况相对简单，Copilot 是他们最大的推销产品。证明在于数字，即有多少人真正感到需要注册该公司提供的人工智能软件。就我个人而言，我并不是很喜欢，自己的偏好是继续使用 Windows 10。</p>
<p>我们不能谈论大型科技公司而不提到整个人工智能泡沫的代言人，对吧？在这次热潮中，Nvidia 是最大的名字，现在是时候看看这些高期望是否终于会追上他们了？</p>
<p>Blackwell 芯片的发布显示，需求仍然远远超过供应。但如果积压开始减少，像亚马逊和微软这样的公司也开始开发自己的人工智能生态系统，这可能对 Nvidia 来说是一个令人担忧的信号，因为他们面临着不断超越和交付超出预期的压力。</p>
<p>别误会，Nvidia 仍然是一个主要的现金奶牛，也是人工智能泡沫中最大的收益者。但投资者的期望是否过高，以至于任何不完美的表现都会受到惩罚？这将是一个有趣的观察，尤其是来自中国市场的关键风险可能会带来一些不合时宜的头条新闻。</p>
<p>但如果一切顺利，Jensen Huang 和他的公司可能会成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的股票。或者如果你想大梦一场，甚至可能达到 10 万亿美元。</p>

META

<p>这篇文章探讨了 2026 年大型科技公司的潜在重置，质疑市场是否对人工智能的影响过于乐观。文章强调，像谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、微软和英伟达这样的公司需要展示出来自人工智能投资的实际生产力提升和利润改善，暗示现实检查可能即将到来</p>

<p>As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the conversation for 2026. So the question is, have markets gotten too optimistic about the impact of AI? And are we going to see a reality check come next year?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们即将结束 2025 年之际，人工智能泡沫几乎毫发无损地度过了这一年。不过，关于估值的担忧逐渐上升。在谈论这个问题时，可以公平地说，这一切将在 2026 年的讨论中占据重要地位。那么问题是，市场是否对人工智能的影响过于乐观？明年我们会看到现实的检验吗？</p>
</div><p>Well, it definitely is something worth thinking about and considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嗯，这确实是值得思考和考虑的事情。</p>
</div><p>The simple understanding of AI is that it boosts productivity by making processes more efficient and faster right. Let's take an intelligible example of making orange juice from the fruit itself. Yes, I love fruit examples. It always brings me back to this article here in explaining the whole LIBOR scandal back in the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对人工智能的简单理解是，它通过提高流程的效率和速度来提升生产力。让我们以榨橙汁为例。是的，我喜欢用水果作为例子。这总是让我想起这篇文章，解释当年的 LIBOR 丑闻。</p>
</div><p>But yes, orange juice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但没错，榨橙汁。</p>
</div><p>Let's say you are someone who squeezes orange juice to sell, and one day you make it known that you are going to buy a high-tech and super-quick orange peeler and squeezer to get the juice ready to sell. People get excited about that and throw you $500 even though you only make like $5 in profits at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设你是一个榨橙汁的人，某天你宣布你将购买一台高科技、超快速的橙子去皮和榨汁机，以便准备好榨汁出售。人们对此感到兴奋，尽管你当时的利润只有 5 美元，他们还是给了你 500 美元。</p>
</div><p>The people aren't fussed about the money today because they &#34;believe&#34; that with the new technology, you're going to revolutionise the world of selling orange juice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们并不在乎今天的钱，因为他们 “相信” 有了新技术，你将彻底改变榨橙汁的销售世界。</p>
</div><p>So, that's pretty much where we were or somewhat still are at in the whole AI bubble. The sense check hasn't quite happened yet but it's only a matter of time until questions are asked about the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，这基本上就是我们在整个人工智能泡沫中所处的状态。现实的检验尚未发生，但只需时间问题，以下问题就会被提出：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Is the new technology really <em>that</em> good?</li>
<li>How has it really improved the efficiency and time cost of getting the orange juice ready for sale?</li>
<li>Has it really helped to increase profit margin by a great amount?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>新技术真的那么好吗？</li>
<li>它真的提高了榨汁准备的效率和时间成本吗？</li>
<li>它真的帮助大幅提高了利润率吗？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If you translate that to companies and firms that are knee deep in AI investment, these are all valid questions at some point. And that could be what investors are demanding next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果将这些问题转化为那些深陷人工智能投资的公司和企业，这些都是在某个时刻有效的问题。这可能是投资者明年所要求的。</p>
</div><p>Before this, markets would cheer on AI investment and increased capital expenditure to be <em>revolutionary</em>. Now, doing so isn't anything new but instead it's rather <em>commonplace</em> instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，市场会为人工智能投资和增加资本支出而欢呼，认为这是革命性的。现在，这样做并不新鲜，而是相对 “普遍”。</p>
</div><p>It's like having the new PlayStation 5 on release. You're the cool kid and everyone wants to hang out with you when you have it. But then when everyone else also starts to own it, what you have isn't anything different and people hang out at their own homes instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像新款 PlayStation 5 发布时一样。你是那个酷孩子，大家都想和你一起玩。但当其他人也开始拥有它时，你所拥有的就没有什么不同，人们反而更愿意待在自己家里。</p>
</div><p>And so the question then turns to how do you get the people i.e. investors to stay? What makes yours more &#34;magical&#34; and &#34;special&#34;? That is where the productivity conversation comes in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，问题转向如何让人们，即投资者，留下来？是什么让你的产品更 “神奇” 和 “特别”？这就是生产力讨论的所在。</p>
</div><p>For Big Tech, that means the conversation isn't anymore about spending on AI. It's about who can actually use that correctly to reflect a better bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于大型科技公司来说，讨论不再是关于在人工智能上的支出，而是关于谁能真正正确地使用这些技术以反映更好的底线。</p>
</div><p>For the likes of Google and Meta, it's all about translating that to ad revenue with the former also going to be scrutinised on their cloud business. And so far, they are two of the better ones that have an easier time to show how increased productivity and how that translates to earnings in general.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于谷歌和 Meta 来说，关键在于将其转化为广告收入，前者还将受到对其云业务的审查。到目前为止，他们是两家更容易展示如何提高生产力以及如何将其转化为整体收益的公司。</p>
</div><p>Then you have the likes of Amazon and Microsoft, who both have laid out massive amounts of capital in trying to convince investors that they are keeping up in the AI game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是亚马逊和微软，他们都投入了大量资本，试图说服投资者他们在人工智能领域保持竞争力。</p>
</div><p>Now, Amazon has committed the most in terms of capital expenditure on AI as compared to everyone else and one thing they are hiding behind for now is that their revenue stream and productivity gains are spread across multiple points. They have their warehouse technologies, robots, website, and cloud systems all layered with AI advancements. And so, the profits have to keep rolling in to convince investors against their big amount of money spent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，亚马逊在人工智能上的资本支出是所有公司中最多的，他们目前隐藏在背后的一个理由是，他们的收入流和生产力提升分布在多个方面。他们有仓库技术、机器人、网站和云系统，所有这些都与人工智能的进步相结合。因此，利润必须不断涌入，以说服投资者抵消他们的大量支出。</p>
</div><p>That said, Amazon is also big enough to insulate themselves from risks of having to rely on chipmakers and external data centers. They do work to develop their own chips and are going big in expanding on the latter as well. I spoke about data centers and the importance of the fight for power last week here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，亚马逊足够大，可以使自己免受依赖芯片制造商和外部数据中心的风险。他们确实在努力开发自己的芯片，并在后者上大力扩展。我上周在这里谈到了数据中心和对电力争夺的重要性。</p>
</div><p>As for Microsoft, it's quite straightforward with Copilot being their biggest push product offering. The proof will be in the numbers, that being how many people actually feel the need to sign up for AI software delivered by the firm. And personally speaking, I'm not a big fan with my own taste preference being to continue using Windows 10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于微软，情况相对简单，Copilot 是他们最大的推销产品。证明在于数字，即有多少人真正感到需要注册该公司提供的人工智能软件。就我个人而言，我并不是很喜欢，自己的偏好是继续使用 Windows 10。</p>
</div><p>And we can't talk about Big Tech without talking about the poster boy of the whole AI bubble now, can we? Nvidia has been the biggest name of them all during this run and is it time that the lofty expectations finally catch up to them?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们不能谈论大型科技公司而不提到整个人工智能泡沫的代言人，对吧？在这次热潮中，Nvidia 是最大的名字，现在是时候看看这些高期望是否终于会追上他们了？</p>
</div><p>The Blackwell chip release shows that demand is still well outweighing supply. But if backlogs start to reduce and companies like Amazon and Microsoft also start developing their own AI ecosystem, that could be a troubling sign for Nvidia amid the pressure to constantly outperform and deliver well above what they are doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Blackwell 芯片的发布显示，需求仍然远远超过供应。但如果积压开始减少，像亚马逊和微软这样的公司也开始开发自己的人工智能生态系统，这可能对 Nvidia 来说是一个令人担忧的信号，因为他们面临着不断超越和交付超出预期的压力。</p>
</div><p>Don't get me wrong. Nvidia is still a major cash cow and the biggest earner from the continued focus in the AI bubble. But are investor expectations too high that anything less than perfect will get punished? That will be interesting to see, especially with key risks from the China market that could provide some untimely headlines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>别误会，Nvidia 仍然是一个主要的现金奶牛，也是人工智能泡沫中最大的收益者。但投资者的期望是否过高，以至于任何不完美的表现都会受到惩罚？这将是一个有趣的观察，尤其是来自中国市场的关键风险可能会带来一些不合时宜的头条新闻。</p>
</div><p>But if all goes well for Jensen Huang and his company, they could be the first ever $5 trillion market cap stock. Or if you want to dream big, maybe even $10 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果一切顺利，Jensen Huang 和他的公司可能会成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的股票。或者如果你想大梦一场，甚至可能达到 10 万亿美元。</p>
</div>

Will 2026 mark the big reset for Big Tech?

- 2025 年人工智能泡沫面临估值担忧，市场过于乐观。  
- 大型科技公司需展示 AI 对业绩的实际改善。  
- Nvidia 面临高期望压力，市场风险需关注。

2026 年是否会成为科技巨头的大重置时刻？