<p>（更新早期欧洲交易的价格）</p><p>由于乌克兰和平协议的不确定性，贵金属波动</p><p>本周美联储会议纪要成为焦点，交易员思考美国利率前景</p><p>美元在降息预期下持续承压</p><p>作者：Naomi Rovnick 和 Ankur Banerjee</p><p>伦敦/新加坡，12 月 29 日（路透社）- 全球股市在周一有望以创纪录的高点结束 2025 年，而美元徘徊在近三个月来的最低点，反映出投资者对明年美联储进一步降息的预期。摩根士丹利全球股票指数（MIWO00000PUS）在早期欧洲交易中持平，市场评估美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关于他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争协议的评论。</p><p>这使得全球股票基准在年初至今的涨幅接近 21%，在华尔街（.SPX）上周五创下历史新高后，欧洲股市（.STOXX）在周一早盘触及盘中历史新高。</p><h3 id="wwjw0u62h">投资者不愿意打压可能的人工智能泡沫</h3><p>随着年末的临近，投资者仍然预期美国利率将下降，并且在货币政策保持支持的情况下不愿意抛售潜在的人工智能股票泡沫。他们还增加了对避险金的投资，以对冲他们的看涨押注。</p><p>“我们并没有看到失控的通胀风险作为基本情况，因此我们仍然认为美联储有降息的空间，” 富达国际多资产投资组合经理秦贝基说。</p><p>“所以你仍然可以为风险资产的合理强劲背景建立一个论点。” 投资者在周一对贵金属进行了部分获利了结。黄金（XAU=）下跌 1.1%，至每盎司 4484 美元，但仍有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅，涨幅超过 70%。白银（XAG=）在周一的波动交易中首次突破每盎司 80 美元的关口，随后回落至 76.14 美元。Saxo 的首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示，贵金属今年受到降息顺风和对地缘政治及财政不确定性对冲的推动。</p><p>“再加上供应担忧，这一走势变得抛物线。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在白银方面，也提高了更高波动性的风险。短期内，风险主要是技术性和定位驱动的，” Chanana 说。</p><p>伦敦金属交易所的三个月期铜（CMCU3）上涨 3.27%，至每公吨 12560 美元，周一早些时候曾创下 12960 美元的纪录。</p><p>美国总统表示乌克兰谈判是积极的，周一特朗普在佛罗里达州与泽连斯基会面，称这次会谈是积极的，尽管尚未达成任何关于实现乌克兰和平的协议。</p><p>与此同时，中国军方周一在台湾周围调动陆军、海军、空军和炮兵部队进行 “正义使命 2025” 演习，台湾表示将捍卫其民主。</p><p>摩根士丹利亚太股票指数（.MIAP00000PUS）周一上涨 0.4%，在年末最后一周强劲开局。大多数亚洲市场在 2025 年录得两位数的涨幅，市场押注于人工智能的前景，并搁置了对贸易关税影响的担忧。</p><p>韩国 Kospi 指数（.KS11）周一上涨 2.2%，有望实现自 1999 年以来的最佳年度表现，投资者将他们的人工智能押注扩展到华尔街以外，这一趋势也使得台湾股市（.TWII）年初至今上涨 25%。</p><p>在这个假期缩短的一周中，投资者的关注将转向周二美联储最新会议纪要的发布。</p><p>美国中央银行本月将主要联邦基金利率下调至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间，货币市场预计到 9 月份将再降两次 25 个基点。特朗普上周表示，接替即将离任的美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔的人选不会是与他意见不合的人。</p><h3 id="evvu6gto">美元疲软，脆弱的日元找到支撑</h3><p>美元（=USD）在周一对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子主要货币持平，接近自 10 月以来的最低水平。日元（JPY=）上涨 0.3%，至每美元 156.14，在日本央行 12 月政策会议的意见摘要中，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步加息以遏制通胀，这为日元提供了一些支撑。</p><p>在 12 月 19 日跌至 157.78 后，这为日元提供了一些支撑，促使市场预期日本央行将进行干预。</p><p>在周一的固定收益市场中，乌克兰的不确定性支撑了欧元区政府债券，10 年期德国国债收益率几乎下降了 3 个基点，降至约 2.84%（DE10YT=RR），基准债务工具的价格上涨。然而，考虑到刺激支出承诺和欧洲央行强烈信号表明其降息周期已接近尾声，该德国收益率有望在年末结束时上涨约 50 个基点。基准国债收益率（US10YT=RR）下降 3 个基点，略高于 4.1%。</p><p>布伦特原油期货（LCoc1）在波动交易中上涨 1%，至每桶 61.26 美元，此前在特朗普与泽连斯基会谈前下跌超过 2%。</p><p>闪闪发光的并非全是黄金：白银引领贵金属反弹</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e92e5755b62fc15a87e251bc0f8168ce?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="2392" height="994" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e92e5755b62fc15a87e251bc0f8168ce"/></figure><p>韩国股市在 2025 年引领亚洲</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17806d7431f3f36db06c060c73366c94?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1672" height="1042" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17806d7431f3f36db06c060c73366c94"/></figure>

<p>全球股市有望在 2025 年以创纪录的高点收盘，主要受到美联储降息预期的推动。MSCI 全球股票指数保持平稳，市场对地缘政治发展作出反应，包括美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基之间的积极对话。贵金属市场波动较大，黄金略微下跌，但仍有望实现显著的年度涨幅。投资者对潜在的人工智能股票泡沫保持谨慎，同时增加对避险资产的配置。美元持续承压，市场关注即将发布的美联储会议纪要，以获取有关货币政策的进一步信息</p>

<p>(Updates prices with early European trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新早期欧洲交易的价格）</p>
</div><p>Precious metals volatile on Ukraine peace deal uncertainty</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于乌克兰和平协议的不确定性，贵金属波动</p>
</div><p>Fed minutes in focus this week as traders ponder US rates outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周美联储会议纪要成为焦点，交易员思考美国利率前景</p>
</div><p>Dollar stays under pressure on rate cut wagers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元在降息预期下持续承压</p>
</div><p>By Naomi Rovnick and Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naomi Rovnick 和 Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>LONDON/SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Global stocks were on track to end 2025 at record highs on Monday, while the dollar hovered near its lowest in almost three months, reflecting investors’ expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. The MSCI’s world equity gauge (MIWO00000PUS) was flat in early European trading as markets assessed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were getting “a lot closer” to a deal that could end the Ukraine war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦/新加坡，12 月 29 日（路透社）- 全球股市在周一有望以创纪录的高点结束 2025 年，而美元徘徊在近三个月来的最低点，反映出投资者对明年美联储进一步降息的预期。摩根士丹利全球股票指数（MIWO00000PUS）在早期欧洲交易中持平，市场评估美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关于他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争协议的评论。</p>
</div><p>That left the global stock benchmark with an almost 21% year-to-date gain after Wall Street (.SPX) hit a record high on Friday and European shares (.STOXX) touched an intraday record high in early trades on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得全球股票基准在年初至今的涨幅接近 21%，在华尔街（.SPX）上周五创下历史新高后，欧洲股市（.STOXX）在周一早盘触及盘中历史新高。</p>
</div><h3>INVESTORS ARE RELUCTANT TO DEFLATE POSSIBLE AI BUBBLE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投资者不愿意打压可能的人工智能泡沫</h3>
</div><p>As the year ends, investors retain expectations U.S. rates will fall and are reluctant to sell out of a potential bubble in AI stocks as long as monetary policy remains supportive. They have also increased their exposure to safe-haven gold to hedge their bullish bets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着年末的临近，投资者仍然预期美国利率将下降，并且在货币政策保持支持的情况下不愿意抛售潜在的人工智能股票泡沫。他们还增加了对避险金的投资，以对冲他们的看涨押注。</p>
</div><p>“We’re not seeing runaway inflation risk as a base case so we’re still thinking the Fed has room to cut,” Fidelity International multi-asset portfolio manager Becky Qin said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们并没有看到失控的通胀风险作为基本情况，因此我们仍然认为美联储有降息的空间，” 富达国际多资产投资组合经理秦贝基说。</p>
</div><p>“So you can still build a case for a reasonably strong backdrop for risk assets.” Investors took some profits on precious metals on Monday. Gold (XAU=) dropped 1.1% to $4,484 an ounce but stayed on track for its biggest annual gain since 1979 with a rise of over 70%. Silver (XAG=) climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time in volatile trading on Monday before dropping back to $76.14. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said precious metals have been lifted this year by a mix of rate-cut tailwinds and hedging against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所以你仍然可以为风险资产的合理强劲背景建立一个论点。” 投资者在周一对贵金属进行了部分获利了结。黄金（XAU=）下跌 1.1%，至每盎司 4484 美元，但仍有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅，涨幅超过 70%。白银（XAG=）在周一的波动交易中首次突破每盎司 80 美元的关口，随后回落至 76.14 美元。Saxo 的首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示，贵金属今年受到降息顺风和对地缘政治及财政不确定性对冲的推动。</p>
</div><p>“Add supply worries and the move has turned parabolic. But the late-year, near-vertical surge, especially in silver, also raises the risk of higher volatility. Near-term, the risk is technical and positioning-led,” Chanana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再加上供应担忧，这一走势变得抛物线。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在白银方面，也提高了更高波动性的风险。短期内，风险主要是技术性和定位驱动的，” Chanana 说。</p>
</div><p>Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (CMCU3) was 3.27% higher at $12,560 per metric ton, having set a record of $12,960 earlier on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所的三个月期铜（CMCU3）上涨 3.27%，至每公吨 12560 美元，周一早些时候曾创下 12960 美元的纪录。</p>
</div><p>US PRESIDENT SAYS UKRAINE TALKS ARE POSITIVE Geopolitics was in focus on Monday after Trump met Zelenskiy in Florida for what the U.S. President described as positive talks, although no agreement on bringing peace to Ukraine has yet been reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统表示乌克兰谈判是积极的，周一特朗普在佛罗里达州与泽连斯基会面，称这次会谈是积极的，尽管尚未达成任何关于实现乌克兰和平的协议。</p>
</div><p>China’s military, meanwhile, moved army, naval, air force and artillery units around Taiwan on Monday for its “Justice Mission 2025” drills, as the island said it would defend its democracy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，中国军方周一在台湾周围调动陆军、海军、空军和炮兵部队进行 “正义使命 2025” 演习，台湾表示将捍卫其民主。</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was 0.4% higher on Monday in a strong start to the final week of the year. Most Asian markets have recorded double-digit gains for 2025 as markets bet on the prospects for AI and set aside concerns about the impact of trade tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利亚太股票指数（.MIAP00000PUS）周一上涨 0.4%，在年末最后一周强劲开局。大多数亚洲市场在 2025 年录得两位数的涨幅，市场押注于人工智能的前景，并搁置了对贸易关税影响的担忧。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s Kospi (.KS11) rose 2.2% on Monday, on pace for its best year since 1999 after investors spread their AI bets beyond Wall Street in a trend that has also lifted Taiwanese equities (.TWII) 25% higher year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国 Kospi 指数（.KS11）周一上涨 2.2%，有望实现自 1999 年以来的最佳年度表现，投资者将他们的人工智能押注扩展到华尔街以外，这一趋势也使得台湾股市（.TWII）年初至今上涨 25%。</p>
</div><p>The focus of investors in this holiday-shortened week will turn on Tuesday to the publication of the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个假期缩短的一周中，投资者的关注将转向周二美联储最新会议纪要的发布。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. central bank cut its main funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% this month and money markets are pricing two further quarter-point cuts by September. Trump, who favours lower borrowing costs, said last week that the replacement for outgoing Fed chair Jay Powell would not be anyone who disagrees with him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国中央银行本月将主要联邦基金利率下调至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间，货币市场预计到 9 月份将再降两次 25 个基点。特朗普上周表示，接替即将离任的美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔的人选不会是与他意见不合的人。</p>
</div><h3>DOLLAR FLAILS AS FRAIL YEN FINDS SUPPORT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元疲软，脆弱的日元找到支撑</h3>
</div><p>The dollar (=USD) , flat against a basket of major currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen on Monday, stuck close to its weakest level since October. The yen (JPY=) firmed 0.3% to 156.14 per U.S. dollar after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting in December showed many board members saw the need for further rate hikes to contain inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（=USD）在周一对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子主要货币持平，接近自 10 月以来的最低水平。日元（JPY=）上涨 0.3%，至每美元 156.14，在日本央行 12 月政策会议的意见摘要中，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步加息以遏制通胀，这为日元提供了一些支撑。</p>
</div><p>That offered some support for the Japanese currency after it slid to 157.78 on December 19, prompting expectations of BoJ intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月 19 日跌至 157.78 后，这为日元提供了一些支撑，促使市场预期日本央行将进行干预。</p>
</div><p>In fixed income markets on Monday, Ukraine uncertainty supported euro zone government bonds, with 10-year German Bund yields edging almost 3 basis points lower to around 2.84% (DE10YT=RR) as the prices of the benchmark debt instruments firmed. That German yield was on track to end the year about 50 bps higher, however, following stimulus spending pledges and the European Central Bank’s strong signals that its rate-cutting cycle has drawn to a close. Benchmark Treasury yields (US10YT=RR) were 3 bps lower at just over 4.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一的固定收益市场中，乌克兰的不确定性支撑了欧元区政府债券，10 年期德国国债收益率几乎下降了 3 个基点，降至约 2.84%（DE10YT=RR），基准债务工具的价格上涨。然而，考虑到刺激支出承诺和欧洲央行强烈信号表明其降息周期已接近尾声，该德国收益率有望在年末结束时上涨约 50 个基点。基准国债收益率（US10YT=RR）下降 3 个基点，略高于 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>Brent Crude futures (LCoc1) rose 1% to $61.26 a barrel in volatile trading, having dropped more than 2% on Friday ahead of Trump and Zelenskiy’s talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货（LCoc1）在波动交易中上涨 1%，至每桶 61.26 美元，此前在特朗普与泽连斯基会谈前下跌超过 2%。</p>
</div><p>All that glitters is not gold: Silver leads precious metals rally charge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪闪发光的并非全是黄金：白银引领贵金属反弹</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>South Korean stocks lead the charge for Asia in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国股市在 2025 年引领亚洲</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgvdqqkmepo/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgvdqqkmepo/chart.png"/></p>

全球市场：股票因美联储降息预期而有望创下年终纪录