<p>作者：Emily Bary</p>
<p>OpenAI 和 Nvidia 的叙事需要重新流行，以便微软的股票能够有实质性的上涨</p>
<p>微软的股票是 “七大奇迹” 中仅有的两只在 2024 年初以来价格更低的股票之一。</p>
<p>微软与 OpenAI 的紧密关系曾被视为一种资产，但最近却变成了一种负担。</p>
<p>尽管微软在过去六个月的表现基本持平，但该公司在三大云服务提供商中实现了最快的云增长。一个担忧是，OpenAI 的业务正在推动这种强劲的云增长，可能会将更多的工作分散出去。另一个担忧是，尽管 OpenAI 起步较早，但可能并不会在聊天机器人大战中最终获胜。</p>
<p>这也涉及到 Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的崛起。谷歌在其 Gemini 聊天机器人方面取得了进展，帮助提升了其合作伙伴的股票。</p>
<p>“在技术领域发生了领导层的变化，围绕 OpenAI 的生态圈中的公司开始相对于围绕谷歌的生态圈收缩，时间将证明这种变化是否具有持久性，” 西北互助财富管理公司的股票首席投资经理 Matt Stucky 对 MarketWatch 说。</p>
<p>阅读：随着 ChatGPT 迎来三岁生日，这里是派对上的破坏者</p>
<p>因此，明年微软股票的主要催化剂可能是公司无法控制的因素：OpenAI 和 Nvidia（NVDA）的生态需要重新流行。</p>
<p>来自 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 xAI 等公司的新模型正在 Nvidia 的 Blackwell Ultra 上进行训练，预计将在明年上半年推出。为了改善微软股票的情绪，这些模型需要 “在 Gemini 3 之上实现飞跃，” Stucky 说。</p>
<p>如果那样的话，“微软与 OpenAI 的合作关系看起来会比现在好得多，” 因为投资者会对 OpenAI 能够获得进一步融资、投资其业务并为微软的计算能力支付费用感到更有信心。他补充道，微软本身在 OpenAI 中拥有 27% 的股份。</p>
<p>不要错过：为什么微软的争议性 OpenAI 合作关系实际上是股票的安全网</p>
<p>根据瑞穗交易台分析师 Jordan Klein 的说法，对冲基金似乎对微软股票 “漠不关心”。他认为，如果 Azure 云计算增长因新产能上线而加速，股票可能会起飞。</p>
<p>不过，Azure 的恒定货币增长在去年的 12 月季度从 31% 加速到 3 月季度的 34%，再到 6 月季度的 39%，然后在 9 月季度保持在该水平。Klein 在最近的一份报告中承认，他 “在这里错了六个月”，因为他期待强劲的数字能激励投资者。</p>
<p>除了亚马逊的股票（AMZN）外，微软是 “七大奇迹” 中唯一一只自 2024 年初以来前瞻市盈率下降的股票，瑞银表示。尽管微软在截至周五的 2025 年的股票涨幅为 15.7% 并不算糟糕，但仍落后于标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 17.8% 的年增长。</p>
<p>对于一些投资者来说，这可能意味着机会。“这是一个高质量的名字，相对于其他领域的股票，它的交易价格相对较具吸引力，” Stucky 说。根据 LSEG，微软的前瞻市盈率为 27.7，而其五年平均为 31.7。</p>
<p>另见：大型科技股正在变得更便宜，这可能意味着高达 60% 的收益</p>
<p>瑞银分析师表示，现在投资大型科技股需要更具选择性的策略，因为主要参与者之间的交易相关性下降。微软的相对便宜——该股票的前瞻市盈率低于苹果的股票——在分析师中显得尤为突出。</p>
<p>公司的规模和护城河同样显著。他们指出，微软拥有 4.45 亿 Office 365 用户，这使得公司 “拥有无与伦比的安装基础”。</p>
<p>“此外，几乎不可能被颠覆，因为每个办公室工作人员都接受过 Excel 或 Word 的培训，转向替代品将非常冒险、困难且成本高昂，” 瑞银团队写道。</p>
<p>微软的 Office 365 业务是公司试图注入其 Copilot AI 产品的一个地方，这是公司通过向企业和消费者销售辅助功能来实现 AI 货币化的尝试。根据 Stucky 的说法，这些努力在客户接受度方面迄今为止 “令人失望”。</p>
<p>“你现在处于一种对产品的情绪很差的状态，” 他说，甚至 “不能再糟糕了。” 如果客户开始将 AI 工具纳入他们的工作流程，投资者对 Copilot 的态度可能会改善，他补充道。</p>
<p>来自 MarketWatch 的更多信息：为什么 Oracle 和这三只不受欢迎的软件股票可能是 AI 交易的下一个阶段</p>
<p>-Emily Bary</p>
<p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>2025 年 12 月 29 日 0739ET</p>

OpenAI

英伟达

微软

<p>尽管云业务增长强劲，微软的股票仍然保持平稳，这引发了人们对其与 OpenAI 合作的担忧。分析师建议，要使微软的股价上涨，OpenAI 和 Nvidia 需要重新吸引投资者的兴趣。对微软持冷淡态度的对冲基金目前并不积极，但一些人认为，由于其相较于同行的吸引人的市盈率，仍然存在潜力。公司的 Office 365 用户基础依然强劲，但其 AI 功能的采用情况令人失望。总体而言，投资者情绪谨慎，对未来在 AI 和云计算领域的发展寄予希望</p>

<p>By Emily Bary</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Emily Bary</p>
</div><p>The OpenAI and Nvidia narratives need to come back into fashion in order for Microsoft shares to move meaningfully higher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 和 Nvidia 的叙事需要重新流行，以便微软的股票能够有实质性的上涨</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's stock is one of only two in the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; that's cheaper now than it was at the start of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的股票是 “七大奇迹” 中仅有的两只在 2024 年初以来价格更低的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's tight relationship with OpenAI was once seen as an asset. Lately it's been an albatross of sorts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软与 OpenAI 的紧密关系曾被视为一种资产，但最近却变成了一种负担。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) are essentially flat over the past six months, even as the company has posted the fastest cloud growth of the three big providers. One worry is that OpenAI, whose business is helping fuel that robust cloud growth, might spread more of its work around. Another fear is that OpenAI simply may not end up the winner of the chatbot wars, despite its head start.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管微软在过去六个月的表现基本持平，但该公司在三大云服务提供商中实现了最快的云增长。一个担忧是，OpenAI 的业务正在推动这种强劲的云增长，可能会将更多的工作分散出去。另一个担忧是，尽管 OpenAI 起步较早，但可能并不会在聊天机器人大战中最终获胜。</p>
</div><p>That also gets at Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) ascent. Google has made strides with its Gemini chatbot, helping to lift the shares of its partners as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也涉及到 Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的崛起。谷歌在其 Gemini 聊天机器人方面取得了进展，帮助提升了其合作伙伴的股票。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's been a leadership change, specifically within technology, that companies around the ecosphere of OpenAI have started to pull back relative to the ecosphere around Google, and time will tell whether or not that shift has staying power,&#34; Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在技术领域发生了领导层的变化，围绕 OpenAI 的生态圈中的公司开始相对于围绕谷歌的生态圈收缩，时间将证明这种变化是否具有持久性，” 西北互助财富管理公司的股票首席投资经理 Matt Stucky 对 MarketWatch 说。</p>
</div><p>Read: As ChatGPT turns 3, here's what's crashing the party</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：随着 ChatGPT 迎来三岁生日，这里是派对上的破坏者</p>
</div><p>For that reason, the big catalyst for Microsoft's stock next year might be something outside the company's control: The OpenAI and Nvidia (NVDA) universes need to come back into fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，明年微软股票的主要催化剂可能是公司无法控制的因素：OpenAI 和 Nvidia（NVDA）的生态需要重新流行。</p>
</div><p>New models from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI are being trained on Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra and expected out in the first half of next year. For Microsoft stock sentiment to improve, those models need to &#34;take a leapfrog above where Gemini 3 is today,&#34; Stucky said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 xAI 等公司的新模型正在 Nvidia 的 Blackwell Ultra 上进行训练，预计将在明年上半年推出。为了改善微软股票的情绪，这些模型需要 “在 Gemini 3 之上实现飞跃，” Stucky 说。</p>
</div><p>If that happens, &#34;the partnership that Microsoft has with OpenAI looks much better than it looks today,&#34; because investors will feel more confident in OpenAI's ability to get further funding, invest in its business and pay up for Microsoft compute capacity, he added. Microsoft itself has a 27% stake in OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果那样的话，“微软与 OpenAI 的合作关系看起来会比现在好得多，” 因为投资者会对 OpenAI 能够获得进一步融资、投资其业务并为微软的计算能力支付费用感到更有信心。他补充道，微软本身在 OpenAI 中拥有 27% 的股份。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Why Microsoft's controversial OpenAI partnership is actually a safety net for the stock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：为什么微软的争议性 OpenAI 合作关系实际上是股票的安全网</p>
</div><p>Hedge funds seem to be viewing Microsoft shares &#34;with apathy,&#34; according to Mizuho trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein. He thinks the stock could take off if Azure cloud-computing growth picks up, thanks to new capacity coming online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据瑞穗交易台分析师 Jordan Klein 的说法，对冲基金似乎对微软股票 “漠不关心”。他认为，如果 Azure 云计算增长因新产能上线而加速，股票可能会起飞。</p>
</div><p>Then again, constant-currency Azure growth accelerated from 31% in last year's December quarter to 34% in the March quarter to 39% in the June quarter, before holding at that level in the September quarter. And Klein acknowledged in a recent note that he's &#34;been wrong here for six months&#34; by expecting strong numbers to excite investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，Azure 的恒定货币增长在去年的 12 月季度从 31% 加速到 3 月季度的 34%，再到 6 月季度的 39%，然后在 9 月季度保持在该水平。Klein 在最近的一份报告中承认，他 “在这里错了六个月”，因为他期待强劲的数字能激励投资者。</p>
</div><p>Aside from Amazon.com's stock (AMZN), Microsoft's is the only other member of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; whose forward price-to-earnings multiple has come down since the start of 2024, according to UBS. And while Microsoft's 15.7% stock gain in 2025 through Friday hasn't been disastrous, it does lag the S&amp;P 500 index's SPX 17.8% increase for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了亚马逊的股票（AMZN）外，微软是 “七大奇迹” 中唯一一只自 2024 年初以来前瞻市盈率下降的股票，瑞银表示。尽管微软在截至周五的 2025 年的股票涨幅为 15.7% 并不算糟糕，但仍落后于标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 17.8% 的年增长。</p>
</div><p>For some investors, that might spell opportunity. &#34;It's a high quality name and it's trading at a fairly attractive price relatively versus the rest of the space,&#34; Stucky said. Microsoft's forward price-to-earnings multiple is 27.7, versus its five-year average of 31.7, according to LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一些投资者来说，这可能意味着机会。“这是一个高质量的名字，相对于其他领域的股票，它的交易价格相对较具吸引力，” Stucky 说。根据 LSEG，微软的前瞻市盈率为 27.7，而其五年平均为 31.7。</p>
</div><p>See also: Big Tech stocks are getting cheaper, and that could mean gains of up to 60%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见：大型科技股正在变得更便宜，这可能意味着高达 60% 的收益</p>
</div><p>Investing in Big Tech stocks now requires a more selective approach, UBS analysts say, as trading correlations fall between the major players. Microsoft's relative cheapness - the stock now has a lower forward P/E than Apple's stock - stands out to the analysts there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银分析师表示，现在投资大型科技股需要更具选择性的策略，因为主要参与者之间的交易相关性下降。微软的相对便宜——该股票的前瞻市盈率低于苹果的股票——在分析师中显得尤为突出。</p>
</div><p>So do the company's scale and moat. They note Microsoft's 445 million Office 365 users, which give the company &#34;an installed base that is second to none.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的规模和护城河同样显著。他们指出，微软拥有 4.45 亿 Office 365 用户，这使得公司 “拥有无与伦比的安装基础”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Moreover, it is nearly impossible to disrupt since every office worker would have been trained on Excel or Word and it would be very risky, difficult and costly to switch to alternatives,&#34; the UBS team wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“此外，几乎不可能被颠覆，因为每个办公室工作人员都接受过 Excel 或 Word 的培训，转向替代品将非常冒险、困难且成本高昂，” 瑞银团队写道。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's Office 365 business is one place where the company is trying to infuse its Copilot AI offering, which is the company's attempt to monetize AI by selling enterprises and consumers on assistive features. Those efforts have been &#34;a disappointment&#34; so far in terms of customer uptake, according to Stucky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的 Office 365 业务是公司试图注入其 Copilot AI 产品的一个地方，这是公司通过向企业和消费者销售辅助功能来实现 AI 货币化的尝试。根据 Stucky 的说法，这些努力在客户接受度方面迄今为止 “令人失望”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;You're in a state now where sentiment towards the product is poor,&#34; he said, to the point where it &#34;can't get a whole lot worse.&#34; Investor attitudes toward Copilot could improve if customers were to start incorporating the AI tools into their workflows more, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你现在处于一种对产品的情绪很差的状态，” 他说，甚至 “不能再糟糕了。” 如果客户开始将 AI 工具纳入他们的工作流程，投资者对 Copilot 的态度可能会改善，他补充道。</p>
</div><p>More from MarketWatch: Why Oracle and these 3 unloved software stocks could be the next leg of the AI trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 MarketWatch 的更多信息：为什么 Oracle 和这三只不受欢迎的软件股票可能是 AI 交易的下一个阶段</p>
</div><p>-Emily Bary</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Emily Bary</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>12-29-25 0739ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 12 月 29 日 0739ET</p>
</div>

Microsoft's business is on fire. So how can its stock break from its curse?

- 微软股价在过去六个月基本持平，面临 OpenAI 转移合作风险。  
- 投资者对微软与 OpenAI 的伙伴关系信心不足，期待新模型突破。  
- 微软的估值较为便宜，Office 365 用户基础强，但 Copilot AI 接受度不高。

微软的业务蒸蒸日上。那么它的股票如何才能打破困境呢？