<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本银行报告显示许多董事会成员认为需要加息</li>
<li>乌克兰谈判和中国实弹演习准备成为焦点</li>
<li>美联储会议纪要突显数据日历稀薄</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Rocky Swift 和 Alun John</p>
<p>周一，日元在上周末下跌后有所回升，市场考虑日本更多加息的时机和干预的可能性，而年底交易稀薄使得欧洲货币变化不大。</p>
<p>日本银行政策制定者在 12 月的政策会议上讨论了继续加息的必要性，周一发布的意见摘要显示了这一点。</p>
<p>日本财政部长片山萨津基上周表示，日本在应对日元过度波动方面有自由裁量权。这些干预警告帮助抑制了美元 - 日元的头寸，但东京州街的分行经理 Bart Wakabayashi 表示，对日本货币的悲观情绪在其他外汇交叉盘中显现出来。</p>
<p>Wakabayashi 表示：“我认为持有日元的多头头寸相当痛苦。我们看到一些对这些货币的日元空头表现，特别是澳元 - 日元。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“市场仍在试图弄清楚日元在作为避险资产方面现在扮演什么样的角色。”</p>
<p>美元最后下跌 0.17%，报 156.3 日元，此前周五上涨 0.45%。周一，澳元一度升至 105.15 日元，为 2024 年 7 月以来的最高点。</p>
<p>欧元微跌至 1.1760 美元。英镑下跌 0.1%，报 1.3486 美元，这使得美元指数（衡量美元对一篮子货币的表现）小幅上涨至 98.12。</p>
<p>日本银行在 12 月的会议上将政策利率从 0.5% 上调至 30 年来的最高点 0.75%。周一发布的意见摘要显示，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步提高利率，而在通胀调整后，该利率仍显著为负。</p>
<p>加息未能阻止日元贬值，日元在 12 月 19 日跌至每美元 157.78，促使干预警告。日本上次进入市场捍卫其货币是在 2024 年 7 月，当时在日元触及 38 年来的低点 161.96 后进行了买入。</p>
<p>本周数据点稀少，且在许多市场新年假期前交易稀薄，地缘政治发展成为焦点。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示，他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近，可能非常接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争的协议，尽管两位领导人都承认一些棘手的细节仍未解决。</p>
<p>在亚洲，军备竞赛仍在继续，中国在台湾周围部署军事单位，为周二的实弹演习做准备。与此同时，朝鲜国家媒体表示，领导人金正恩周日监督了远程导弹的发射，韩国的联合通讯社报道称，可能会在新年期间进行更多测试。</p>
<p>本周的主要数据焦点将是周二发布的美联储公开市场委员会本月早些时候会议的会议纪要。美国中央银行在此次会议上降息，并预计明年仅再降息一次，但交易员们已将至少两次降息计入价格。</p>
<p>高盛分析师在一份报告中表示：“FOMC 修订了会后声明，以暗示进一步降息的门槛更高，鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上也传达了这一信息。我们预计 12 月会议的会议纪要将指出 FOMC 参与者在短期内适当的政策路径上存在持续分歧。”</p>
<p>澳元下跌 0.36%，报 0.6688 美元，而瑞士法郎略微走弱，报每美元 0.7904。</p>

8301

<p>日元在日本银行（BOJ）会议纪要显示董事会成员对潜在加息达成共识后略微走强。尽管如此，日元仍然面临压力，日本财政部长发出了干预的警告。美元对日元下跌了 0.17%，而澳大利亚元则达到了自 2024 年 7 月以来对日元的最高水平。地缘政治紧张局势和即将发布的美国联邦储备会议纪要正在影响市场情绪，且在新年前的交易条件较为清淡</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOJ report shows many board members saw need for rate hikes</li>
<li>Ukraine talks, China live-drill preparations take centre stage</li>
<li>Fed minutes highlight thin data calendar</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本银行报告显示许多董事会成员认为需要加息</li>
<li>乌克兰谈判和中国实弹演习准备成为焦点</li>
<li>美联储会议纪要突显数据日历稀薄</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Rocky Swift and Alun John</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Rocky Swift 和 Alun John</p>
</div><p>The yen recovered some ground on Monday following a drop late last week as markets considered the timing of more interest rate hikes in Japan and the possibility of intervention, while thin end-of-year trading left European currencies little changed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，日元在上周末下跌后有所回升，市场考虑日本更多加息的时机和干预的可能性，而年底交易稀薄使得欧洲货币变化不大。</p>
</div><p>Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need to continue raising rates, a summary of opinions at their policy meeting in December showed on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行政策制定者在 12 月的政策会议上讨论了继续加息的必要性，周一发布的意见摘要显示了这一点。</p>
</div><p>Japan has a free hand in dealing with excessive moves in the yen, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week. Those intervention warnings have helped keep a lid on dollar-yen positions, but pessimism about Japan's currency is showing up in other foreign exchange crosses, said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本财政部长片山萨津基上周表示，日本在应对日元过度波动方面有自由裁量权。这些干预警告帮助抑制了美元 - 日元的头寸，但东京州街的分行经理 Bart Wakabayashi 表示，对日本货币的悲观情绪在其他外汇交叉盘中显现出来。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think a long position in yen is quite painful,&#34; Wakabayashi said. &#34;We're seeing some expression of yen shorts against these currencies, particularly Aussie-yen.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wakabayashi 表示：“我认为持有日元的多头头寸相当痛苦。我们看到一些对这些货币的日元空头表现，特别是澳元 - 日元。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;The market is still trying to figure out what kind of role the yen plays now in terms of being a safe haven,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“市场仍在试图弄清楚日元在作为避险资产方面现在扮演什么样的角色。”</p>
</div><p>The dollar was last down 0.17% at 156.3 yen  after a 0.45% jump on Friday. The Australian dollar reached as high as 105.15 yen on Monday, its highest since July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元最后下跌 0.17%，报 156.3 日元，此前周五上涨 0.45%。周一，澳元一度升至 105.15 日元，为 2024 年 7 月以来的最高点。</p>
</div><p>The euro  was a fraction softer at $1.1760. Sterling  shed 0.1% to $1.3486, and that all left the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, up marginally at 98.12.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元微跌至 1.1760 美元。英镑下跌 0.1%，报 1.3486 美元，这使得美元指数（衡量美元对一篮子货币的表现）小幅上涨至 98.12。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% from 0.5% at its December meeting. The summary of opinions released on Monday showed many board members saw the need for further increases to the rate, which remained significantly negative in inflation-adjusted terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行在 12 月的会议上将政策利率从 0.5% 上调至 30 年来的最高点 0.75%。周一发布的意见摘要显示，许多董事会成员认为需要进一步提高利率，而在通胀调整后，该利率仍显著为负。</p>
</div><p>The rate hike failed to halt depreciation of the yen, which slid as low as 157.78 per dollar on December 19, prompting intervention warnings. Japan last stepped into markets to defend its currency in July 2024, buying yen after the currency hit a 38-year low of 161.96.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加息未能阻止日元贬值，日元在 12 月 19 日跌至每美元 157.78，促使干预警告。日本上次进入市场捍卫其货币是在 2024 年 7 月，当时在日元触及 38 年来的低点 161.96 后进行了买入。</p>
</div><p>With few data points this week and thin trading ahead of New Year's holidays in many markets, geopolitical developments were taking centre stage. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were &#34;getting a lot closer, maybe very close&#34; to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, though both leaders acknowledged that some of the thorniest details remained unresolved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周数据点稀少，且在许多市场新年假期前交易稀薄，地缘政治发展成为焦点。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示，他与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 “越来越接近，可能非常接近” 达成结束乌克兰战争的协议，尽管两位领导人都承认一些棘手的细节仍未解决。</p>
</div><p>Sabre-rattling continued in Asia, with China positioning military units around Taiwan in preparation for live-fire drills on Tuesday. North Korean state media, meanwhile, said leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch of long-range missiles on Sunday, with South Korea's Yonhap reporting that more tests could take place around New Year's Day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲，军备竞赛仍在继续，中国在台湾周围部署军事单位，为周二的实弹演习做准备。与此同时，朝鲜国家媒体表示，领导人金正恩周日监督了远程导弹的发射，韩国的联合通讯社报道称，可能会在新年期间进行更多测试。</p>
</div><p>The main data focus this week will be Tuesday's release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting earlier this month. The U.S. central bank cut rates at the gathering and projected just one more reduction for next year, but traders have priced in at least two more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的主要数据焦点将是周二发布的美联储公开市场委员会本月早些时候会议的会议纪要。美国中央银行在此次会议上降息，并预计明年仅再降息一次，但交易员们已将至少两次降息计入价格。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The FOMC revised the post-meeting statement to imply a higher bar for further rate cuts, and Chair Powell also got across that message in his press conference. We expect the minutes to the December meeting to note ongoing disagreement among FOMC participants about the appropriate policy path over the near term,&#34; Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛分析师在一份报告中表示：“FOMC 修订了会后声明，以暗示进一步降息的门槛更高，鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上也传达了这一信息。我们预计 12 月会议的会议纪要将指出 FOMC 参与者在短期内适当的政策路径上存在持续分歧。”</p>
</div><p>The Australian dollar  was down 0.36% at $0.6688, while the Swiss franc was a touch weaker at 0.7904 per dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元下跌 0.36%，报 0.6688 美元，而瑞士法郎略微走弱，报每美元 0.7904。</p>
</div>

在日本央行纪要发布后，日元略微走强，交易员仍在密切关注干预措施