<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BRA-inflation-invezz.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BRA-inflation-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>巴西中期通胀前景在中央银行最新的 Focus 报告中进一步改善，消费者物价指数的中位数预测进一步下降，并保持在 2025 年官方上限以下。</p>
<p>尽管实施了数十年来最严格的货币政策，价格压力似乎正在逐渐减缓。</p>
<p>2025 年巴西基准消费者物价指数 IPCA 的中位数预测从 4.33% 降至 4.32%，也是连续第七周下降。</p>
<p>这一预测目前比通胀目标区间的上限 4.50% 低 0.18 个百分点。一个月前，该预测为 4.43%。</p>
<p>即使仅限于过去五个工作日内修订的 111 个估计，中位数预测再次下降，从 4.32% 降至 4.31%，继续小幅下调的趋势。</p>
<h2>2026 年及以后的展望</h2>
<p>2026 年的通胀预测也有所下调。该年的共识预测从 4.06% 降至 4.05%，延续了连续六周的下降趋势。</p>
<p>一个月前，估计为 4.17%，显示出近期负面变化的幅度。</p>
<p>根据最近的数据，在过去五个工作日内更新的 110 个估计也遵循了类似的模式，中位数从 4.07% 降至 4.06%。</p>
<p>进一步来看，预期保持不变。连续第八周，2027 年通胀的中位数 Focus 预测保持在 3.80% 不变，而 2028 年的预测稳定在 3.50%。</p>
<h2>中央银行的预测和目标框架</h2>
<p>中央银行最近的预测显示短期内小幅上升。</p>
<p>货币政策委员会（Copom）预计 2025 年通胀为 4.4%，2026 年为 3.5%。在 2027 年第二季度，委员会预计 12 个月的通胀率为 3.2%。</p>
<p>巴西的通胀目标自年初以来一直有效，由过去 12 个月的 IPCA 累计计算。</p>
<p>它有一个对称的容忍带，中央目标为 3%，上下各 1.5 个百分点。</p>
<p>如果通胀连续六个月超出该范围，中央银行将被视为未能实现其目标。这一规定是在 6 月 IPCA 公布后制定的。</p>
<p>然而，在 11 月，累计 12 个月的通胀降至 4.46%，低于容忍范围的上限。</p>
<p>在其最新的货币政策报告中，中央银行重申了将通胀引导至目标中点的承诺。</p>
<p>“将通胀重新框定在既定的容忍范围内是向目标收敛过程中的自然步骤，” 研究中指出。</p>
<h2>利率保持在限制水平</h2>
<p>尽管通胀预期上升，货币政策仍然保持紧缩。在最近的一次会议上，Copom 将基准 Selic 利率维持在 15%，这是连续第四次决定保持利率不变。</p>
<p>委员会进一步辩称，“维持当前利率水平相当长一段时间的策略是确保通胀收敛至目标的适当措施。”</p>
<p>这一做法与 Focus 研究中概述的市场预期一致。2025 年底的 Selic 利率中位数预测在过去 24 周内保持在 15%。</p>
<p>展望未来，2026 年底的 Selic 利率中位数预测保持在 12.25%，高于一个月前的 12.0%。</p>
<p>在过去五个工作日内更新的 88 个估计中，中位数从 12.25% 降至 12.13%。数据由中央银行在 29 日（星期一）提供。</p>
<p>后续年份的预测保持不变。</p>
<p>2027 年底的预测 Selic 利率连续第 46 周保持在 10.50%，而 2028 年底的中位数预测保持在 9.75%，略高于一个月前的 9.50%。</p>
<p>巴西通胀预测放松，中央银行维持高利率：报告首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>巴西的中期通胀前景有所改善，中央银行的 Focus 报告显示，2025 年消费者物价指数的中位数预测下降至 4.32%，低于 4.50% 的目标上限。2026 年的预测也降至 4.05%。尽管维持 15% 的高 Selic 利率，中央银行仍旨在引导通胀朝向其目标。2025 年的 Selic 利率中位数预测保持在 15%，后续年份略有调整。总体而言，在紧缩的货币政策下，通胀预期逐渐降温</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BRA-inflation-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BRA-inflation-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>Brazil’s medium-term inflation outlook improved further in the latest Focusreport from the Central Bank, with median consumer price index forecasts easing even lower and remaining below the official upper limit for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西中期通胀前景在中央银行最新的 Focus 报告中进一步改善，消费者物价指数的中位数预测进一步下降，并保持在 2025 年官方上限以下。</p>
</div><p>Despite the most restrictive monetary policy in decades, price pressures appear to be gradually cooling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管实施了数十年来最严格的货币政策，价格压力似乎正在逐渐减缓。</p>
</div><p>The median projection for the IPCA, the benchmark consumer price index in Brazil, in 2025 fell from 4.33%to 4.32%, also the seventh consecutive weekly drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年巴西基准消费者物价指数 IPCA 的中位数预测从 4.33% 降至 4.32%，也是连续第七周下降。</p>
</div><p>This forecast is currently 0.18 percentage points belowthe ceiling of the inflation target range of 4.50%. A month ago, that prediction washigher at 4.43%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一预测目前比通胀目标区间的上限 4.50% 低 0.18 个百分点。一个月前，该预测为 4.43%。</p>
</div><p>Even when limiting just to the 111 estimates revised in the past five business days, the median forecast dipped once more, from4.32% to 4.31%, continuing the trend of small downward revisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使仅限于过去五个工作日内修订的 111 个估计，中位数预测再次下降，从 4.32% 降至 4.31%，继续小幅下调的趋势。</p>
</div><h2>Outlook for 2026 and beyond</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年及以后的展望</h2>
</div><p>Inflation projections for 2026 have also shifted lower. The consensus projection for that year fell from 4.06% to 4.05%, extending a streak of six consecutive weekly declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的通胀预测也有所下调。该年的共识预测从 4.06% 降至 4.05%，延续了连续六周的下降趋势。</p>
</div><p>One month ago, the estimate was at 4.17%, indicating the magnitude of recent negative changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个月前，估计为 4.17%，显示出近期负面变化的幅度。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the most recent data, the 110 estimates updated within the last five business days followed a similar pattern, with the median dropping from 4.07% to 4.06%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最近的数据，在过去五个工作日内更新的 110 个估计也遵循了类似的模式，中位数从 4.07% 降至 4.06%。</p>
</div><p>Further out, expectations remained constant. For the eighth week in a row, the median Focus forecast for inflation in 2027 remained unchanged at 3.80%, while the projection for 2028 remained stable at 3.50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步来看，预期保持不变。连续第八周，2027 年通胀的中位数 Focus 预测保持在 3.80% 不变，而 2028 年的预测稳定在 3.50%。</p>
</div><h2>Central bank projections and target framework</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央银行的预测和目标框架</h2>
</div><p>The Central Bank’s most recent forecasts show a small increase in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行最近的预测显示短期内小幅上升。</p>
</div><p>The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) expects inflation to be 4.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. In the second quarter of 2027, the committee anticipates a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币政策委员会（Copom）预计 2025 年通胀为 4.4%，2026 年为 3.5%。在 2027 年第二季度，委员会预计 12 个月的通胀率为 3.2%。</p>
</div><p>The inflation target of Brazil has been in force uninterruptedly since the turn of the year,calculated by the IPCA accumulated in the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西的通胀目标自年初以来一直有效，由过去 12 个月的 IPCA 累计计算。</p>
</div><p>It has a symmetrical tolerance band of 1.5percentage points on either side of the central target of 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它有一个对称的容忍带，中央目标为 3%，上下各 1.5 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>If inflation landsoutside of this range for six months in a row, the Central Bank is deemed to have missed its target. This programming came after theJune IPCA was disclosed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通胀连续六个月超出该范围，中央银行将被视为未能实现其目标。这一规定是在 6 月 IPCA 公布后制定的。</p>
</div><p>However, in November, theaccumulated 12-month inflation dropped to 4.46%, below the ceiling of the tolerance range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 11 月，累计 12 个月的通胀降至 4.46%，低于容忍范围的上限。</p>
</div><p>In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank maintained its commitment to guiding inflation toward the midpoint of the objective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其最新的货币政策报告中，中央银行重申了将通胀引导至目标中点的承诺。</p>
</div><p>“Reframing inflation within the established tolerance range is a natural step in the process of converging to the target,” according to the study.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“将通胀重新框定在既定的容忍范围内是向目标收敛过程中的自然步骤，” 研究中指出。</p>
</div><h2>Interest rates remain at restrictive levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率保持在限制水平</h2>
</div><p>Despite increasing inflation expectations, monetary policy has remained tight. At its most recent meeting, Copom retained the benchmark Selic rate at 15%, marking the fourth straight decision to hold rates steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀预期上升，货币政策仍然保持紧缩。在最近的一次会议上，Copom 将基准 Selic 利率维持在 15%，这是连续第四次决定保持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>The committee went on to argue that “the current strategy of maintaining the current level of the interest rate for a fairly long period is adequate to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委员会进一步辩称，“维持当前利率水平相当长一段时间的策略是确保通胀收敛至目标的适当措施。”</p>
</div><p>This approach is consistent with market expectations outlined in the Focus study. The median projection for the Selic rate at the end of 2025 has remained at 15% for the past 24 weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一做法与 Focus 研究中概述的市场预期一致。2025 年底的 Selic 利率中位数预测在过去 24 周内保持在 15%。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, the median prediction for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 remained unchanged at 12.25%, up from 12.0% a month earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，2026 年底的 Selic 利率中位数预测保持在 12.25%，高于一个月前的 12.0%。</p>
</div><p>Among the 88 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median fell from 12.25% to 12.13%. The data was provided by the Central Bank on Monday, the 29th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五个工作日内更新的 88 个估计中，中位数从 12.25% 降至 12.13%。数据由中央银行在 29 日（星期一）提供。</p>
</div><p>Projections for subsequent years remained unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>后续年份的预测保持不变。</p>
</div><p>The predicted Selic rate by the end of 2027 remained at 10.50% for the 46th straight week, while the median projection for the end of 2028 remained at 9.75%, slightly higher than the 9.50% recorded a month ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2027 年底的预测 Selic 利率连续第 46 周保持在 10.50%，而 2028 年底的中位数预测保持在 9.75%，略高于一个月前的 9.50%。</p>
</div><p>The post Brazil inflation forecasts ease as central bank holds rates high: report appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西通胀预测放松，中央银行维持高利率：报告首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Brazil inflation forecasts ease as central bank holds rates high: report

- 巴西最新的通胀展望改善，2025 年消费者价格指数预测降至 4.32%。  
- 中央银行维持利率在 15%，预计未来两年保持紧缩政策。  
- 2026 年通胀预期降至 4.05%，2027 年和 2028 年预测不变。

报告称，巴西的通胀预期有所缓解，因为央行维持高利率不变