<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Quantum-infrastructure-440x264.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="440" height="264" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Quantum-infrastructure-440x264.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>来源</em></p>
<p>多年来，我一直在关注我认为的科技市场现象——“预热炼狱”。</p>
<p>这是一个技术显然具有革命性，但时间表模糊且成本高昂，以至于大多数投资者选择不关注的时期。</p>
<p>人工智能在这个炼狱中停滞了近十年。然后，ChatGPT 在 2022 年 11 月推出，人工智能几乎在一夜之间从一个引人注目的研究项目变成了商业竞争的军备竞赛。</p>
<p>我相信我们现在正在目睹量子计算领域发生同样的事情。这就是我在 3 月份推荐量子计算公司 IONQ 的原因，当时它的股价仅为 22 美元。</p>
<p>量子计算长期以来一直是终极科学项目。科学家们仍在弄清楚量子领域的运作方式，因此实用量子计算的想法似乎总是遥不可及。</p>
<p>这就是为什么在绝对零度温度和理论数学的世界中工作的公司和政府不需要太担心季度财报或预算限制。</p>
<p>但最近的一笔 1.1 亿美元的交易告诉我，无后果研究的时代正在结束。</p>
<p>我们正朝着工业执行的时代迈进。</p>
<h2>不可能的工业化空白标题</h2>
<p>量子计算公司（Nasdaq: QUBT）最近宣布了一项交易，这应该成为任何关注这一波颠覆性浪潮的人的头条新闻。</p>
<p>该公司同意以全现金方式收购前 Luminar Technologies（Nasdaq: LAZR）拥有的光子业务，交易金额为 1.1 亿美元。该单位包括高端制造设备、专利以及一支在大规模构建光学硬件方面拥有经验的团队。</p>
<p>Luminar 曾是自动驾驶汽车领域的宠儿，在 2021 年达到超过 30 亿美元的市场价值。</p>
<p>它正在构建作为自动驾驶汽车 “眼睛” 的先进激光雷达系统。但完全自动驾驶汽车的商业化进展比公司预期的要慢。本月早些时候，Luminar 申请了第 11 章破产保护。</p>
<p>然而，该公司花费数十亿开发的技术并没有因为 Luminar 未能履行债务义务而停止运作。事实证明，Luminar 的光子专业知识正是量子行业今天所需的规模化技术。</p>
<p>为什么？</p>
<p>因为今天的计算机正在达到其物理极限。</p>
<p>你看，传统计算机通过流经硅芯片的电子来移动信息。几十年来，工程师通过缩小这些芯片使计算机变得更快。</p>
<p>但晶体管只能小到一定程度。我们现在正接近物理本身成为进步障碍的那一点。</p>
<p>为了继续提高性能，我们需要一种不同的信息传输方式。这就是光子学的用武之地。</p>
<p>光子学使用光而不是电子。在许多量子系统中，光子——光的粒子——可以比电信号更有效地携带和处理信息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="412" height="325" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS1.png"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：thequantuminsider.com</em></p>
<p>基于光的系统是量子传感和超安全通信的基础。它们可以在室温下运行，从而消除了其他形式量子计算所需的大型且昂贵的低温冷却系统。</p>
<p>但直到现在，光子学面临的最大问题之一一直是制造方面。</p>
<p>大多数量子公司不自己制造硬件。他们将设计发送到外部实验室并等待。即使是对这些设计的小改动也可能需要几个月的测试，减缓进展并提高成本。</p>
<p>通过收购 Luminar 的子公司将这一能力引入内部，QCI 正在遵循像英特尔和苹果这样的科技巨头所采用的垂直整合策略。</p>
<p>他们正在控制自己的供应链，以确保能够比竞争对手更快地迭代。换句话说，他们正在从仅仅是一家软件公司转变为未来的制造商。</p>
<p>而这可能是进行这一转变的最佳时机。</p>
<p>因为全球量子市场今天仍然很小。一旦去除研究补助金和政府资金，年支出约为 15 亿美元。</p>
<p>但长期预测却截然不同。</p>
<p>波士顿咨询集团建议，市场可能每年继续增长约 25%：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="575" height="416" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS2.png"/></p>
<p>麦肯锡预测，到 2040 年，整个量子技术市场可能达到 <strong>1980 亿美元</strong>。这代表了我们在过去十年中看到的人工智能的那种繁荣。</p>
<p>但这一增长假设量子系统进入日常工业使用，特别是在金融、制药和国家安全领域。</p>
<p>这就是为什么量子背后的动力不仅来自私营部门。</p>
<p>美国、中国和欧盟目前正陷入 “量子军备竞赛”，投入大量资金以确保不被落下。中国 reportedly 承诺为其国家量子项目投入 150 亿美元。美国和欧盟也在各自花费数十亿美元。</p>
<p>他们知道，第一家达到这些机器能够破解任何加密或设计任何新材料的国家将掌握全球经济的钥匙。</p>
<p>这一时刻被称为 Q-Day。</p>
<p>安全专家现在认为，它可能在 2028 年至 2030 年之间到来。</p>
<h2>我的看法</h2>
<p>从学术研究到实体制造的转变是我所知道的技术走出 “预热炼狱” 阶段并即将爆发的最可靠指标。</p>
<p>QCI 正在投资 1.1 亿美元以拥有自己的制造工具并提升其制造专业技能。这是一个准备大规模构建物理系统的公司的举动。</p>
<p>在 Q 日之前，迫切需要建立 “量子抗性” 基础设施，这为 QCI 现在能够制造的硬件创造了一个巨大的被迫买方市场。</p>
<p>这意味着我们可能很快就会见证不可能的工业化。</p>
<p>我并不是说量子技术即将进入主流。</p>
<p>但我指出，今天大约 150 亿美元的量子市场与明天近 2000 亿美元的行业之间的差距代表了一个重要的财富创造机会。</p>
<p>而量子计算并不需要戏剧性的突破就能变得经济相关。它只需要更多像这样的交易，即公司承诺将真实资本投入到真实的约束中。</p>
<p>如果这种模式持续下去，量子技术不仅会让人感到兴奋。</p>
<p>它将让人感到不可避免。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>摩根大通刚刚确认了我的代币化理论</p>
<p>圣诞老人供应链数字化的一年</p>
<p>XGPT 的人工智能能否为交易者平衡竞争？</p>

QMCO

LAZRQ

LAZR

<p>量子计算公司（Quantum Computing Inc，纳斯达克代码：QUBT）宣布以 1.1 亿美元收购 Luminar Technologies（纳斯达克代码：LAZR）的一家光子业务，这标志着量子计算在工业执行方面的重大转变。此举旨在增强制造能力，减少对外部实验室的依赖，从而加快创新速度。全球量子市场预计将显著增长，估计到 2040 年可能达到 1980 亿美元，推动因素包括金融、制药和国家安全领域的进步。美国、中国和欧盟正在大力投资量子技术，加剧全球竞争</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Quantum-infrastructure-440x264.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://banyanhill.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Quantum-infrastructure-440x264.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源</em></p>
</div><p>For years, I’ve tracked a phenomenon in the tech markets that I consider a “pre-hype purgatory.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，我一直在关注我认为的科技市场现象——“预热炼狱”。</p>
</div><p>It’s the period where a technology is clearly revolutionary, but the timelines are so fuzzy and the costs are so high that most investors simply tune out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个技术显然具有革命性，但时间表模糊且成本高昂，以至于大多数投资者选择不关注的时期。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence was stuck in this purgatory for nearly a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022, and AI went from being a compelling research project to a commercial arms race practically overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能在这个炼狱中停滞了近十年。然后，ChatGPT 在 2022 年 11 月推出，人工智能几乎在一夜之间从一个引人注目的研究项目变成了商业竞争的军备竞赛。</p>
</div><p>I believe we are watching the exact same thing happening right now with quantum computing. That’s why I recommended quantum computing company IONQ in March when it was trading at only $22 a share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信我们现在正在目睹量子计算领域发生同样的事情。这就是我在 3 月份推荐量子计算公司 IONQ 的原因，当时它的股价仅为 22 美元。</p>
</div><p>Quantum has been the ultimate science project for a long time now. Scientists are still figuring out how the quantum realm works, so the idea of practical quantum computing has always seemed to be decades away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算长期以来一直是终极科学项目。科学家们仍在弄清楚量子领域的运作方式，因此实用量子计算的想法似乎总是遥不可及。</p>
</div><p>That’s why companies and governments working in this world of absolute zero temperatures and theoretical math haven’t needed to worry much about quarterly earnings reports or budgetary constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么在绝对零度温度和理论数学的世界中工作的公司和政府不需要太担心季度财报或预算限制。</p>
</div><p>But a recent $110 million transaction tells me that the era of consequence-free research is ending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近的一笔 1.1 亿美元的交易告诉我，无后果研究的时代正在结束。</p>
</div><p>And we’re moving toward the era of industrial execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们正朝着工业执行的时代迈进。</p>
</div><h2>THE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE IMPOSSIBLEEMPTY HEADING</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不可能的工业化空白标题</h2>
</div><p>Quantum Computing Inc (Nasdaq: QUBT) recently announced a deal that should be front-page news for anyone tracking this next wave of disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算公司（Nasdaq: QUBT）最近宣布了一项交易，这应该成为任何关注这一波颠覆性浪潮的人的头条新闻。</p>
</div><p>The company agreed to acquire a photonics business formerly owned by Luminar Technologies (Nasdaq: LAZR) in an all-cash, $110 million transaction. The unit includes high-end fabrication equipment, patents and a team that has experience building optical hardware at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司同意以全现金方式收购前 Luminar Technologies（Nasdaq: LAZR）拥有的光子业务，交易金额为 1.1 亿美元。该单位包括高端制造设备、专利以及一支在大规模构建光学硬件方面拥有经验的团队。</p>
</div><p>Luminar was once a darling of the autonomous vehicle world, carrying a market value of over $3 billion at its peak in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Luminar 曾是自动驾驶汽车领域的宠儿，在 2021 年达到超过 30 亿美元的市场价值。</p>
</div><p>It was building the advanced Lidar systems that act as the “eyes” for self-driving cars. But the commercialization of fully autonomous vehicles took longer than the company expected. And earlier this month, Luminar filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它正在构建作为自动驾驶汽车 “眼睛” 的先进激光雷达系统。但完全自动驾驶汽车的商业化进展比公司预期的要慢。本月早些时候，Luminar 申请了第 11 章破产保护。</p>
</div><p>Yet the technology the company spent billions developing didn’t stop working just because Luminar struggled to meet its debt obligations. And it turns out that Luminar’s photonics expertise is exactly what the quantum industry needs to scale today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司花费数十亿开发的技术并没有因为 Luminar 未能履行债务义务而停止运作。事实证明，Luminar 的光子专业知识正是量子行业今天所需的规模化技术。</p>
</div><p>Why?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么？</p>
</div><p>Because today’s computers are reaching their physical limits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为今天的计算机正在达到其物理极限。</p>
</div><p>You see, traditional computers move information using electrons flowing through silicon chips. And for decades now, engineers have made computers faster by shrinking those chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，传统计算机通过流经硅芯片的电子来移动信息。几十年来，工程师通过缩小这些芯片使计算机变得更快。</p>
</div><p>But transistors can only get so small. And we’re now getting close to the point where physics itself is becoming a barrier to progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但晶体管只能小到一定程度。我们现在正接近物理本身成为进步障碍的那一点。</p>
</div><p>To keep improving performance, we need a different way to move information. And that’s where photonics comes in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了继续提高性能，我们需要一种不同的信息传输方式。这就是光子学的用武之地。</p>
</div><p>Instead of using electrons, photonics uses light. In many quantum systems, photons — particles of light — can carry and process information more efficiently than electrical signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>光子学使用光而不是电子。在许多量子系统中，光子——光的粒子——可以比电信号更有效地携带和处理信息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS1.png" alt="" original-src="https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Image: thequantuminsider.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：thequantuminsider.com</em></p>
</div><p>Light-based systems are the backbone of quantum sensing and ultra-secure communications. And they can operate at room temperature, which eliminates the need for the massive and expensive cryogenic cooling systems that have held back other forms of quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于光的系统是量子传感和超安全通信的基础。它们可以在室温下运行，从而消除了其他形式量子计算所需的大型且昂贵的低温冷却系统。</p>
</div><p>But until now, one of the biggest problems with photonics has been on the manufacturing side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但直到现在，光子学面临的最大问题之一一直是制造方面。</p>
</div><p>Most quantum companies don’t make their own hardware. They send designs to outside labs and wait. Even small changes to these designs can take months to test, slowing progress and driving up costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数量子公司不自己制造硬件。他们将设计发送到外部实验室并等待。即使是对这些设计的小改动也可能需要几个月的测试，减缓进展并提高成本。</p>
</div><p>By bringing this capability in-house through the acquisition of Luminar’s subsidiary, QCI is following the vertical integration playbook used by tech giants like Intel and Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过收购 Luminar 的子公司将这一能力引入内部，QCI 正在遵循像英特尔和苹果这样的科技巨头所采用的垂直整合策略。</p>
</div><p>They’re taking control of their own supply chain to ensure they can iterate faster than the competition. In other words, they’re shifting from being just a software firm to becoming a manufacturer of the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们正在控制自己的供应链，以确保能够比竞争对手更快地迭代。换句话说，他们正在从仅仅是一家软件公司转变为未来的制造商。</p>
</div><p>And this might be the perfect time to make this shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而这可能是进行这一转变的最佳时机。</p>
</div><p>Because the global quantum market is still small today. Once you remove research grants and government funding, annual spending is about $1.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为全球量子市场今天仍然很小。一旦去除研究补助金和政府资金，年支出约为 15 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But long-term forecasts tell a very different story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但长期预测却截然不同。</p>
</div><p>Boston Consulting Group suggests the market could continue to grow around 25% a year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波士顿咨询集团建议，市场可能每年继续增长约 25%：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS2.png" alt="" original-src="https://banyanhill.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Daily_Disruptor/images/2025/12/122925_DD_SS2.png"/></p>
<p>With McKinsey predicting the total quantum technology market could hit up to <strong>$198 billion</strong> by 2040. That represents the kind of boom we saw with AI over the last decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦肯锡预测，到 2040 年，整个量子技术市场可能达到 <strong>1980 亿美元</strong>。这代表了我们在过去十年中看到的人工智能的那种繁荣。</p>
</div><p>But this growth assumes quantum systems move into everyday industrial use, especially in finance, pharmaceuticals and national security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一增长假设量子系统进入日常工业使用，特别是在金融、制药和国家安全领域。</p>
</div><p>And that’s why the momentum behind quantum isn’t coming from the private sector alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么量子背后的动力不仅来自私营部门。</p>
</div><p>The U.S., China, and the EU are currently locked in a “Quantum Arms Race,” committing massive amounts of money to ensure they aren’t left behind. China has reportedly committed $15 billion to its national quantum programs. The United States and the European Union are spending billions of dollars of their own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国、中国和欧盟目前正陷入 “量子军备竞赛”，投入大量资金以确保不被落下。中国 reportedly 承诺为其国家量子项目投入 150 亿美元。美国和欧盟也在各自花费数十亿美元。</p>
</div><p>They know that the first nation to reach the point where these machines can crack any encryption or design any new material will hold the keys to the global economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们知道，第一家达到这些机器能够破解任何加密或设计任何新材料的国家将掌握全球经济的钥匙。</p>
</div><p>This moment is called Q-Day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一时刻被称为 Q-Day。</p>
</div><p>And security experts now believe it could arrive as early as 2028 to 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安全专家现在认为，它可能在 2028 年至 2030 年之间到来。</p>
</div><h2>HERE’S MY TAKE</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我的看法</h2>
</div><p>The transition from academic research to physical manufacturing is the most reliable indicator I know that a technology is moving out of its “pre-hype purgatory” phase and is about to explode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从学术研究到实体制造的转变是我所知道的技术走出 “预热炼狱” 阶段并即将爆发的最可靠指标。</p>
</div><p>QCI is spending $110 million to own its own fabrication tools and improve its manufacturing expertise. That’s the move of a company preparing to build physical systems at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QCI 正在投资 1.1 亿美元以拥有自己的制造工具并提升其制造专业技能。这是一个准备大规模构建物理系统的公司的举动。</p>
</div><p>And the urgency to build “quantum-resistant” infrastructure before Q-Day is creating a massive and forced buyer’s market for exactly the kind of hardware QCI is now positioned to manufacture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Q 日之前，迫切需要建立 “量子抗性” 基础设施，这为 QCI 现在能够制造的硬件创造了一个巨大的被迫买方市场。</p>
</div><p>That means we could soon witness the industrialization of the impossible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着我们可能很快就会见证不可能的工业化。</p>
</div><p>I’m not saying that quantum is about to break into the mainstream quite yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我并不是说量子技术即将进入主流。</p>
</div><p>But I am pointing out that the gap between today’s roughly $1.5 billion quantum market and tomorrow’s nearly $200 billion industry represents a significant wealth-creation opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我指出，今天大约 150 亿美元的量子市场与明天近 2000 亿美元的行业之间的差距代表了一个重要的财富创造机会。</p>
</div><p>And quantum computing doesn’t need a dramatic breakthrough to become economically relevant. It just needs more deals like this one, where companies commit real capital to real constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而量子计算并不需要戏剧性的突破就能变得经济相关。它只需要更多像这样的交易，即公司承诺将真实资本投入到真实的约束中。</p>
</div><p>If that pattern continues, quantum won’t merely feel exciting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种模式持续下去，量子技术不仅会让人感到兴奋。</p>
</div><p>It will feel inevitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它将让人感到不可避免。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>JPMorgan Just Confirmed My Tokenization Thesis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通刚刚确认了我的代币化理论</p>
</div><p>The Year Santa’s Supply Chain Went Digital</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圣诞老人供应链数字化的一年</p>
</div><p>Can XGPT’s AI Level The Playing Field For Traders?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>XGPT 的人工智能能否为交易者平衡竞争？</p>
</div>

Is Quantum Entering Its Infrastructure Phase?

- 量子计算正从学术研究转向实体制造，预示着即将进入商业爆发期。  
- Quantum Computing Inc 与 Luminar Technologies 达成 1.1 亿美元收购协议，这将增强其制造能力。  
- 长期预计，量子市场将以每年约 25% 的速度增长，至 2040 年或可达 1980 亿美元。

Quantum 是否正在进入其基础设施阶段？