<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="500" height="333" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>随着年末的临近，我发现回顾过去 12 个月中读者最感兴趣的内容是很有意义的。</p>
<p>与往年一样，这并不是对 2025 年发生的所有事件的回顾。相反，我将重温五篇阅读量最高的 Frank Talks，并简要分析这些最初的观点在年内的发展情况。让我们开始吧！</p>
<h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>7000 美元黄金的理由</strong></h3>
<p><em>9 月 29 日</em></p>
<p>当这篇 Frank Talk 在 9 月发布时，黄金的交易价格已经达到了历史高点，受到中央银行购买、地缘政治风险和强劲的 ETF 流入等因素的推动。</p>
<p>自那时以来，这些因素只会加剧。全球债务已扩大至 346 万亿美元，世界各地的紧张局势升级，对财政克制的信心也在下降。</p>
<p>就在上周，这种黄色金属首次突破了每盎司 4500 美元；与此同时，白银和铂金的涨幅也是数十年来最强劲的。</p>
<p>我仍然预测黄金将达到 7000 美元，这是我们可能在特朗普总统第二任期结束前的某个时刻看到的里程碑。和往常一样，我建议将 10% 的资产配置在实物黄金和黄金矿业股票之间均匀分配。</p>
<h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>值得关注的航空航天与国防股票：美国最大的承包商按收入排名</strong></h3>
<p><em>1 月 13 日</em></p>
<p>在这篇 Frank Talk 中，我根据收入对美国最大的国防承包商进行了排名，洛克希德·马丁公司（Lockheed Martin LMT）以惊人的 650 亿美元位居榜首。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png"/></p>
<p>在今年年初，全球紧张局势上升，但国防支出仍在讨论中。我当时认为，无论政治如何，美国及其盟友都在致力于长期的军事现代化，这将影响到工业基础。</p>
<p>随着年内形势的发展，这一论点获得了更多动力，本月，特朗普总统签署了 2026 年国家防御授权法案，加速对导弹防御、太空系统、网络安全、人工智能等领域的支出。该法案还包括多年合同和更快的采购流程。</p>
<h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX、Palantir 和 Anduril 引领建设特朗普金色穹顶的竞赛</strong></h3>
<p><em>4 月 28 日</em></p>
<p>当我在 4 月写到特朗普的金色穹顶时，该项目仍然更多是概念而非现实……至今仍然如此。美国继续探索一种下一代导弹防御系统，该系统在很大程度上依赖于基于太空的激光和其他新兴技术。</p>
<p>今天，独立估计表明金色穹顶的成本可能远高于预期——彭博社将其估计为超过 1 万亿美元，接近特朗普早期 1750 亿美元估算的六倍，数百家公司已被邀请参与早期阶段的提案。</p>
<p>该系统是否最终能实现其雄心尚待观察，但我会继续关注这个项目。</p>
<h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>美国十大最繁忙机场</strong></h3>
<p><em>8 月 20 日</em></p>
<p>正如你们中的许多人所知，我在机场花费了很多时间，这使得这是我最喜欢写的 Frank Talk 之一。毫无意外，哈茨菲尔德 - 杰克逊亚特兰大国际机场是美国最繁忙的机场，仅在这个夏天就接待了 3800 万人次。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，乘客数量持续攀升，就在上周，交通安全管理局（TSA）宣布正在为创纪录的假期旅行做准备。预计在 12 月 19 日至 1 月 4 日期间，将有 4430 万乘客在美国机场接受安检。</p>
<p>与此同时，机场继续在航站楼、登机口和安全设施上投资数十亿美元，以反映对日益增长需求的预期。</p>
<h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>关税的惊人历史及其在美国经济政策中的作用</strong></h3>
<p><em>2 月 10 日</em></p>
<p>2025 年阅读量最高的 Frank Talk 回顾了过去，以理解现在，或许还有未来。</p>
<p>我追溯了关税从作为美国政府主要收入来源的历史角色到特朗普目前将其作为政策和谈判工具的使用。在这篇 Frank Talk 撰写时，政府的关税增加正处于自第二次世界大战以来的最大规模。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png"/></p>
<p>随着年内的推进，这些对进口的税收变得更加重要，无论从经济、政治还是法律的角度来看。企业和消费者都承担了更高的成本，而法院的挑战也对其合法性提出了质疑。本月早些时候，CBS 新闻报道，如果最高法院对政府不利，政府可能会欠企业高达 1680 亿美元。</p>
<p>这篇 Frank Talk 的受欢迎程度告诉我，投资者希望理解贸易政策如何融入更广泛的经济框架，以及这对通货膨胀、供应链和最终市场的影响。</p>
<p>和往常一样，我撰写 Frank Talk 的目标是帮助大家理解全球市场发生的事情。我很感激你们继续与我一起阅读和思考。</p>
<p>祝愿未来的一年充满深思和繁荣！</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>无人谈论的柴油冲击</p>
<p>随着人工智能数据中心推动全球供应接近危机水平，铜价上涨加速</p>
<p>尽管经济担忧，美国人在黑色星期五花费了创纪录的 118 亿美元</p>

<p>这篇文章回顾了 2025 年最受关注的五大市场观点，突出了关键见解和预测。文章讨论了由于全球紧张局势和债务上升，黄金可能达到 7000 美元的潜力，美国国防承包商在军事开支增加的背景下的增长，以及特朗普的金色圆顶导弹防御系统的持续发展。此外，文章还提到美国机场的乘客量激增以及关税对经济的重大影响，反映出投资者对贸易政策对通货膨胀和市场影响的关注</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;dpr=1&amp;w=500"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>As the year draws to a close, I find it useful to revisit what resonated most with readers over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着年末的临近，我发现回顾过去 12 个月中读者最感兴趣的内容是很有意义的。</p>
</div><p>As in past years, this isn’t a recap of everything that happened in 2025. Instead, I’m revisiting the five most-read Frank Talks based on views, while offering a brief perspective on how those original ideas held up as the year unfolded. Let’s dive in!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与往年一样，这并不是对 2025 年发生的所有事件的回顾。相反，我将重温五篇阅读量最高的 Frank Talks，并简要分析这些最初的观点在年内的发展情况。让我们开始吧！</p>
</div><h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>The Case for $7,000 Gold</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>7000 美元黄金的理由</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>September 29</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>9 月 29 日</em></p>
</div><p>When this Frank Talk came out in September, gold was already trading at historic highs, driven by forces such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks and strong ETF inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这篇 Frank Talk 在 9 月发布时，黄金的交易价格已经达到了历史高点，受到中央银行购买、地缘政治风险和强劲的 ETF 流入等因素的推动。</p>
</div><p>Since then, those forces have only intensified. Global debt has expanded to $346 trillion, tensions around the world have escalated and confidence in fiscal restraint has eroded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，这些因素只会加剧。全球债务已扩大至 346 万亿美元，世界各地的紧张局势升级，对财政克制的信心也在下降。</p>
</div><p>Just last week, the yellow metal broke through $4,500 an ounce for the first time ever; meanwhile, silver and platinum have posted some of their strongest gains in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在上周，这种黄色金属首次突破了每盎司 4500 美元；与此同时，白银和铂金的涨幅也是数十年来最强劲的。</p>
</div><p>I still predict $7,000 gold, a milestone we may see at some point before the end of President Donald Trump’s second term. As always, I recommend a 10% weighting, split evenly between physical bullion and gold mining equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我仍然预测黄金将达到 7000 美元，这是我们可能在特朗普总统第二任期结束前的某个时刻看到的里程碑。和往常一样，我建议将 10% 的资产配置在实物黄金和黄金矿业股票之间均匀分配。</p>
</div><h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>Aerospace &amp; Defense Stocks to Watch: The Biggest U.S. Contractors by Revenue</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>值得关注的航空航天与国防股票：美国最大的承包商按收入排名</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>January 13</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>1 月 13 日</em></p>
</div><p>In this Frank Talk, I ranked the largest U.S. defense contractors by revenue, with Lockheed Martin LMT taking the top spot with a mind-boggling $65 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这篇 Frank Talk 中，我根据收入对美国最大的国防承包商进行了排名，洛克希德·马丁公司（Lockheed Martin LMT）以惊人的 650 亿美元位居榜首。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png"/></p>
<p>At the start of this year, global tensions were rising, but defense spending was still being debated. I argued then that, regardless of politics, the U.S. and its allies were committing to long-term military modernization, and that would flow through to the industrial base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年年初，全球紧张局势上升，但国防支出仍在讨论中。我当时认为，无论政治如何，美国及其盟友都在致力于长期的军事现代化，这将影响到工业基础。</p>
</div><p>That thesis gained more momentum as the year went on, and this month, President Trump signed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which accelerates spending on missile defense, space systems, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI) and more. Multiyear contracts and faster acquisition pipelines are also included in the legislation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着年内形势的发展，这一论点获得了更多动力，本月，特朗普总统签署了 2026 年国家防御授权法案，加速对导弹防御、太空系统、网络安全、人工智能等领域的支出。该法案还包括多年合同和更快的采购流程。</p>
</div><h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril Lead the Race to Build Trump’s Golden Dome</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX、Palantir 和 Anduril 引领建设特朗普金色穹顶的竞赛</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>April 28</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>4 月 28 日</em></p>
</div><p>When I wrote about Trump’s Golden Dome in April, the program was still more concept than reality… as it remains to this day. The U.S. continues to explore a next-generation missile defense system that relies heavily on space-based lasers and other emerging technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我在 4 月写到特朗普的金色穹顶时，该项目仍然更多是概念而非现实……至今仍然如此。美国继续探索一种下一代导弹防御系统，该系统在很大程度上依赖于基于太空的激光和其他新兴技术。</p>
</div><p>Today, independent estimates suggest costs for the Golden Dome may be far higher than projected—Bloomberg puts it at over $1 trillion, close to six times more than Trump’s early estimate of $175 billion—and hundreds of companies have been invited to participate in early-stage proposals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，独立估计表明金色穹顶的成本可能远高于预期——彭博社将其估计为超过 1 万亿美元，接近特朗普早期 1750 亿美元估算的六倍，数百家公司已被邀请参与早期阶段的提案。</p>
</div><p>Whether the system ultimately meets its ambitions remains to be seen, but I will keep my eyes on the project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该系统是否最终能实现其雄心尚待观察，但我会继续关注这个项目。</p>
</div><h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>America’s Top 10 Busiest Airports</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>美国十大最繁忙机场</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>August 20</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>8 月 20 日</em></p>
</div><p>As many of you know, I spend a lot of time in airports, making this one of my favorite Frank Talks to write. Surprising no one, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport was America’s busiest airport, serving a whopping 38 million people this past summer alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你们中的许多人所知，我在机场花费了很多时间，这使得这是我最喜欢写的 Frank Talk 之一。毫无意外，哈茨菲尔德 - 杰克逊亚特兰大国际机场是美国最繁忙的机场，仅在这个夏天就接待了 3800 万人次。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2025, passenger volumes have continued to climb, and just last week, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced it’s preparing for record-breaking holiday travel. A massive 44.3 million passengers are expected to be screened at U.S. airports between December 19 through January 4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，乘客数量持续攀升，就在上周，交通安全管理局（TSA）宣布正在为创纪录的假期旅行做准备。预计在 12 月 19 日至 1 月 4 日期间，将有 4430 万乘客在美国机场接受安检。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, airports continue to invest billions in terminals, gates and security, reflecting anticipation for growing demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，机场继续在航站楼、登机口和安全设施上投资数十亿美元，以反映对日益增长需求的预期。</p>
</div><h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>The Surprising History of Tariffs and Their Role in U.S. Economic Policy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>关税的惊人历史及其在美国经济政策中的作用</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>February 10</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>2 月 10 日</em></p>
</div><p>The most-read Frank Talk of 2025 looked backward to understand the present and, perhaps, the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年阅读量最高的 Frank Talk 回顾了过去，以理解现在，或许还有未来。</p>
</div><p>I traced tariffs from their historical role as a primary source of U.S. government revenue to Trump’s current use of them as a policy and negotiating tool. At the time of this Frank Talk’s writing, the administration’s tariff increases were on track to be the largest since World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我追溯了关税从作为美国政府主要收入来源的历史角色到特朗普目前将其作为政策和谈判工具的使用。在这篇 Frank Talk 撰写时，政府的关税增加正处于自第二次世界大战以来的最大规模。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png"/></p>
<p>As the year has progressed, these taxes on imports have become even more consequential, whether looked at from an economic, political or legal point of view. Businesses and consumers have absorbed the higher costs, while court challenges have raised questions about their legality. Earlier this month, CBS News reported that the U.S. government could owe businesses as much as $168 billion if the Supreme Court rules against the administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着年内的推进，这些对进口的税收变得更加重要，无论从经济、政治还是法律的角度来看。企业和消费者都承担了更高的成本，而法院的挑战也对其合法性提出了质疑。本月早些时候，CBS 新闻报道，如果最高法院对政府不利，政府可能会欠企业高达 1680 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The popularity of this Frank Talk tells me that investors want to understand how trade policy fits into a broader economic framework, and what that means for inflation, supply chains and, ultimately, markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇 Frank Talk 的受欢迎程度告诉我，投资者希望理解贸易政策如何融入更广泛的经济框架，以及这对通货膨胀、供应链和最终市场的影响。</p>
</div><p>As always, my goal with Frank Talk is to help make sense of what’s happening in markets around the world. I’m grateful you continue to read and think alongside me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和往常一样，我撰写 Frank Talk 的目标是帮助大家理解全球市场发生的事情。我很感激你们继续与我一起阅读和思考。</p>
</div><p>Here’s to a thoughtful and prosperous year ahead!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>祝愿未来的一年充满深思和繁荣！</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>The Diesel Shock No One Is Talking About</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无人谈论的柴油冲击</p>
</div><p>Copper Rally Is Accelerating As AI Data Centers Push Global Supply Toward Crisis Levels</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人工智能数据中心推动全球供应接近危机水平，铜价上涨加速</p>
</div><p>Americans Spent A Record $11.8 Billion On Black Friday Despite Economic Worries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管经济担忧，美国人在黑色星期五花费了创纪录的 118 亿美元</p>
</div>