<p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - 与比特币价格波动类似，原油市场在 2025 年经历了两次 “过山车” 表现，分别在 1 月和 6 月大幅上涨。然而，原油价格总体呈下降趋势，过去一年累计 <strong>暴跌超过 20%。</strong> 具体而言，WTI 原油（USOIL）下跌了 22.36%，而布伦特原油（UKOIL）下降了 20.53%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png"/></p>
<p>布伦特原油、WTI 原油百分比变化，来源：TradingView。</p>
<p>2025 年原油价格的显著波动主要受到供需失衡的影响，这种失衡是由全球经济疲软、不稳定的 OPEC 产量、美国能源政策和地缘政治冲突等多种因素或事件驱动的。随着 2026 年的临近，投资者预计油价将会回升；然而，<strong>原油的供需将如何演变？机构对原油价格的展望如何——是否会继续下跌或反弹？</strong></p>
<h2>2025 年原油价格：承压下行</h2>
<p>在 2025 年初，原油价格上涨超过 10%，达到了年内最高点。具体而言，布伦特原油上涨至每桶 83 美元，而 WTI 原油上涨至每桶 79 美元。随后，<strong>油价从峰值持续下跌，经历了最高 20% 的回撤，并触及年内最低点。</strong> 在 4 月 9 日，布伦特原油跌至 58 美元的低点，WTI 原油降至 54 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png"/></p>
<p>布伦特原油价格图，来源：TradingView。</p>
<p>在 5 月 5 日，<strong>油价第二次触底并反弹，</strong> 随后继续上涨。到 6 月 23 日，油价已反弹至接近年内最高点，布伦特原油接近 80 美元，WTI 原油价格上涨至 76 美元。然而，原油价格未能维持上涨，在同一天急剧下跌。一个显著的看跌蜡烛图开启了随后的逐步下跌路径。在 12 月 16 日，<strong>原油价格第三次测试底部，但未突破 4 月创下的低点。</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png"/></p>
<p>WTI 原油价格图，来源：TradingView。</p>
<p>可以观察到，2025 年原油价格走势呈现出 “下降三角形” 模式，这意味着反弹高点在下降，三次向下探测未能突破，反映出 <strong>多头的局部强势；然而，空头最终占据主导，全年主导市场。</strong></p>
<h2>影响原油价格的因素有哪些？</h2>
<p>总体而言，<strong>全球经济增长放缓导致市场对原油的需求显著下降，造成价格因需求减少而持续承压。</strong> 这正是 2025 年油价下跌的主要原因之一。尽管中国作为全球第二大经济体在 2025 年上半年大量储备石油，每天购买数百万桶原油，但其他主要经济体的需求仍处于持续收缩状态。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>全球石油市场出现了每日 172 万桶（bpd）的过剩，严重的供给过剩进一步压制了油价。</strong> 自 2025 年第二季度起，OPEC+ 启动了分阶段和系统的增产计划，从最初的增产到三倍、四倍的加速增产。在两个季度内，他们完成了 220 万桶自愿减产的撤回，导致原油供应大幅增加。此外，非 OPEC 国家也加入了增产行列，包括美国、加拿大和巴西在内的五个美洲国家在全年内将其总产量提高了多达 230 万桶，进一步加剧了原油供应。</p>
<p>尽管原油价格总体走弱，但仍有两个明显的显著上涨时期，主要受到 <strong>地缘政治冲突和对俄罗斯实施的制裁的推动。</strong> 在 2025 年 1 月，拜登政府在离任前对俄罗斯实施了前所未有的制裁，将两家主要生产商 Gazprom Neft 和 Surgutneftegas 以及其 20 多家子公司和 180 多艘船只列入制裁名单。这一举动立即引发了市场的风险厌恶，推动油价达到 2025 年的年度最高点。在 2025 年 6 月，伊朗与以色列之间的冲突扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航行，影响了全球 30% 的海上原油贸易，再次将油价推高至每桶 80 美元，再次接近年度峰值。</p>
<h2>2026 年原油供需结构将如何？</h2>
<p>国际能源署（IEA）略微上调了对 2026 年全球原油需求的预测，将其从每日 1.047 亿桶（mb/d）调整为 1.048 亿桶。这一预测表明需求增加了 86 万桶，主要受到贸易关税逐渐消退和宏观经济条件改善的推动。在供应方面，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油供应将增加 240 万桶，显著超过需求的增长，表明 <strong>供过于求。</strong></p>
<p>同样，美国能源信息署（EIA）也预计原油市场将保持在 <strong>供给超过需求的状态。</strong> 在其 2025 年 12 月的报告中，EIA 预测 2026 年全球石油供应将平均为每日 1.0743 亿桶，而每日平均需求仅为 1.0517 亿桶，导致每日供应过剩达到 226 万桶。</p>
<p>从 OPEC 的角度来看，2026 年 <strong>原油供需将基本实现平衡。</strong> OPEC 此前在报告中预测，未来一年的全球经济增长将保持在 3.1% 不变，认为石油需求将保持韧性，并预计 2026 年全球石油需求将健康增长，增加 14 万桶/日，总需求达到 1.065 亿桶/日。</p>
<h2>投资银行预测：对 2026 年油价持悲观态度？</h2>
<p>在供大于求的背景下，华尔街对 2026 年原油价格的主要预测倾向于持续疲软，尽管具体价格目标有所不同。<strong>预计平均价格将在每桶 50 至 70 美元之间。</strong></p>
<p>瑞银认为，低成本页岩油生产商的供应收缩和石化需求的持续增长将推动原油价格回升，预测到 2026 年底，<strong>布伦特原油将上涨至每桶 67 美元，而 WTI 原油将上涨至每桶 64 美元。</strong></p>
<p>根据巴克莱的说法，地缘政治紧张局势可能会推高原油价格，但周期性需求放缓可能带来下行风险。他们预计 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格将徘徊在 <strong>每桶 65 美元</strong> 左右。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，支撑原油价格的三个关键因素是：市场普遍预期供过于求、石油库存减少以及 OPEC+ 减产。这些因素预计将使布伦特原油价格保持在 <strong>每桶 60 美元</strong>。</p>
<p>摩根大通的预测更为保守，预计油价将在 2016 年跌破 60 美元，可能在 2027 年降至 30 美元。目前，摩根大通预测 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 58 美元</strong>，WTI 原油为 <strong>每桶 54 美元</strong>。</p>
<p>在所有投资银行中，高盛持有最悲观的展望，预测 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 56 美元</strong>，WTI 原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 52 美元</strong>。高盛指出，2026 年原油价格疲软的两个主要驱动因素是全球经济放缓和 OPEC+ 供应增加。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>投资银行</strong></td>
<td><strong>布伦特原油价格（$/桶）</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI 原油价格（$/桶）</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>瑞银</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴克莱</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根士丹利</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根大通</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>高盛</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>原油市场在 2025 年经历了剧烈波动，整体呈下行趋势，在年内经历了两次峰值，WTI 和布伦特均下跌超过 20%。这些原油价格的剧烈波动主要是由事件驱动的，受到需求疲软、供过于求和地缘政治发展的相互作用等因素的推动。展望 2026 年，国际能源署和能源信息署预计供应增长将超过需求，暗示市场可能仍将承压，而 OPEC 则预计将向平衡迈进。根据华尔街主要投资银行的预测，原油价格预计将保持疲软，波动在每桶 56 至 67 美元之间。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

<p>在 2025 年，原油价格经历了显著的波动，WTI 和布伦特原油因供需失衡、全球经济疲软和地缘政治冲突而下跌超过 20%。尽管出现过短暂的上涨，但价格仍然承压，布伦特原油最高达到每桶 83 美元，WTI 最高达到每桶 79 美元后又回落。国际能源署（IEA）预测 2026 年全球原油需求将略有增加，但供应预计将超过需求，这表明价格将继续面临下行压力。在这些动态下，投资者对未来油价的走势感到困惑</p>

<p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - Similar to Bitcoin prices volatility, the crude oil market experienced a 'rollercoaster' performance twice in 2025, surging in January and June, respectively. However, crude oil prices are generally on a downward trend, having cumulatively <strong>plunged over 20% in the past year.</strong> Specifically, WTI crude oil (USOIL) fell 22.36%, while Brent crude oil (UKOIL) declined by 20.53%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - 与比特币价格波动类似，原油市场在 2025 年经历了两次 “过山车” 表现，分别在 1 月和 6 月大幅上涨。然而，原油价格总体呈下降趋势，过去一年累计 <strong>暴跌超过 20%。</strong> 具体而言，WTI 原油（USOIL）下跌了 22.36%，而布伦特原油（UKOIL）下降了 20.53%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png"/></p>
<p>Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil Percentage Change, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油、WTI 原油百分比变化，来源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>The significant price volatility in crude oil during 2025 was primarily influenced by an imbalance between supply and demand, driven by multiple factors or events including global economic weakness, unstable OPEC production, U.S. energy policy, and geopolitical conflicts. As 2026 approaches, investors are anticipating a recovery in oil prices; however, <strong>how will crude oil supply and demand evolve? What is the institutional outlook for crude oil prices—will they continue to decline or rebound?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年原油价格的显著波动主要受到供需失衡的影响，这种失衡是由全球经济疲软、不稳定的 OPEC 产量、美国能源政策和地缘政治冲突等多种因素或事件驱动的。随着 2026 年的临近，投资者预计油价将会回升；然而，<strong>原油的供需将如何演变？机构对原油价格的展望如何——是否会继续下跌或反弹？</strong></p>
</div><h2>2025 Crude Oil Prices: Under Downward Pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年原油价格：承压下行</h2>
</div><p>In early 2025, crude oil prices surged over 10%, rising to year-to-date highs. Specifically, Brent crude rose to $83/barrel, while WTI crude increased to $79/barrel. Subsequently, <strong>oil prices continuously declined from their peak, experiencing a maximum drawdown of up to 20% and hitting a year-to-date low.</strong> On April 9, Brent crude fell to a low of $58, and WTI crude dropped to $54.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年初，原油价格上涨超过 10%，达到了年内最高点。具体而言，布伦特原油上涨至每桶 83 美元，而 WTI 原油上涨至每桶 79 美元。随后，<strong>油价从峰值持续下跌，经历了最高 20% 的回撤，并触及年内最低点。</strong> 在 4 月 9 日，布伦特原油跌至 58 美元的低点，WTI 原油降至 54 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png"/></p>
<p>Brent Crude Price Chart, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格图，来源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>On May 5, <strong>oil prices bottomed out for a second time and rebounded,</strong> then continued to rally. By June 23, oil prices had rebounded to near their year-to-date highs, with Brent crude approaching $80 and WTI crude prices rising to $76. However, crude oil prices could not sustain the rally, plummeting sharply on the same day. A significant bearish candlestick initiated a subsequent path of gradual declines. On December 16, <strong>crude oil prices tested a bottom for the third time but did not break below the low established in April.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 5 日，<strong>油价第二次触底并反弹，</strong> 随后继续上涨。到 6 月 23 日，油价已反弹至接近年内最高点，布伦特原油接近 80 美元，WTI 原油价格上涨至 76 美元。然而，原油价格未能维持上涨，在同一天急剧下跌。一个显著的看跌蜡烛图开启了随后的逐步下跌路径。在 12 月 16 日，<strong>原油价格第三次测试底部，但未突破 4 月创下的低点。</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png"/></p>
<p>WTI Crude Price Chart, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WTI 原油价格图，来源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>It can be observed that crude oil price movements in 2025 exhibited a 'descending triangle' pattern, meaning that rebound highs were declining, with three probes to the downside that did not break through, reflecting <strong>localized strength from bulls; however, bears ultimately prevailed, dominating the market throughout the year.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以观察到，2025 年原油价格走势呈现出 “下降三角形” 模式，这意味着反弹高点在下降，三次向下探测未能突破，反映出 <strong>多头的局部强势；然而，空头最终占据主导，全年主导市场。</strong></p>
</div><h2>What factors influence crude oil prices?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>影响原油价格的因素有哪些？</h2>
</div><p>Overall, <strong>A slowdown in global economic growth led to a significant decline in market demand for crude oil, causing prices to remain under sustained pressure due to diminished demand.</strong> This was precisely one of the primary reasons for the fall in oil prices in 2025. Although China, the world's second-largest economy, extensively stockpiled oil in the first half of 2025, purchasing millions of barrels of crude oil daily, demand in other major economies remained in a continuous state of contraction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，<strong>全球经济增长放缓导致市场对原油的需求显著下降，造成价格因需求减少而持续承压。</strong> 这正是 2025 年油价下跌的主要原因之一。尽管中国作为全球第二大经济体在 2025 年上半年大量储备石油，每天购买数百万桶原油，但其他主要经济体的需求仍处于持续收缩状态。</p>
</div><p>Concurrently, <strong>The global oil market experienced a surplus of 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd), with severe oversupply further suppressing oil prices.</strong> Starting in Q2 2025, OPEC+ initiated a phased and systematic production increase plan, escalating from initial increases to three-fold and then four-fold accelerations in output. Within two quarters, they completed the withdrawal of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary production cuts, leading to a substantial increase in crude oil supply. Furthermore, non-OPEC countries joined the production ramp-up, with five American nations including the United States, Canada, and Brazil boosting their combined output by as much as 2.3 million bpd throughout the year, further exacerbating the crude oil supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>全球石油市场出现了每日 172 万桶（bpd）的过剩，严重的供给过剩进一步压制了油价。</strong> 自 2025 年第二季度起，OPEC+ 启动了分阶段和系统的增产计划，从最初的增产到三倍、四倍的加速增产。在两个季度内，他们完成了 220 万桶自愿减产的撤回，导致原油供应大幅增加。此外，非 OPEC 国家也加入了增产行列，包括美国、加拿大和巴西在内的五个美洲国家在全年内将其总产量提高了多达 230 万桶，进一步加剧了原油供应。</p>
</div><p>Despite the overall weakening of crude oil prices, there were two distinct periods of significant surges, primarily driven by <strong>geopolitical conflicts and sanctions imposed on Russia.</strong> In January 2025, prior to leaving office, the Biden administration imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, adding two key producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with over 20 of their subsidiaries and more than 180 vessels, to the sanctions list. This action instantly ignited market risk aversion, propelling oil prices to their 2025 annual high. In June 2025, a conflict between Iran and Israel disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 30% of global seaborne crude oil trade and driving oil prices back up to $80 per barrel, once again nearing the year's peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管原油价格总体走弱，但仍有两个明显的显著上涨时期，主要受到 <strong>地缘政治冲突和对俄罗斯实施的制裁的推动。</strong> 在 2025 年 1 月，拜登政府在离任前对俄罗斯实施了前所未有的制裁，将两家主要生产商 Gazprom Neft 和 Surgutneftegas 以及其 20 多家子公司和 180 多艘船只列入制裁名单。这一举动立即引发了市场的风险厌恶，推动油价达到 2025 年的年度最高点。在 2025 年 6 月，伊朗与以色列之间的冲突扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航行，影响了全球 30% 的海上原油贸易，再次将油价推高至每桶 80 美元，再次接近年度峰值。</p>
</div><h2>What will the crude oil supply and demand structure be in 2026?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年原油供需结构将如何？</h2>
</div><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly revised upward its forecast for global crude oil demand in 2026, adjusting it from 104.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 104.8 mb/d. This projection signifies a demand increase of 0.86 mb/d, driven by the gradual fading of trade tariffs and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. On the supply side, the IEA projects that global crude oil supply will increase by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, significantly exceeding the growth in demand, indicating <strong>an oversupply.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署（IEA）略微上调了对 2026 年全球原油需求的预测，将其从每日 1.047 亿桶（mb/d）调整为 1.048 亿桶。这一预测表明需求增加了 86 万桶，主要受到贸易关税逐渐消退和宏观经济条件改善的推动。在供应方面，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油供应将增加 240 万桶，显著超过需求的增长，表明 <strong>供过于求。</strong></p>
</div><p>Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in <strong>a state of supply exceeding demand.</strong> In its December 2025 report, the EIA forecasted that global oil supply in 2026 would average 107.43 mb/d, while average daily demand would be only 105.17 mb/d, resulting in a significant daily supply surplus of 2.26 mb/d.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，美国能源信息署（EIA）也预计原油市场将保持在 <strong>供给超过需求的状态。</strong> 在其 2025 年 12 月的报告中，EIA 预测 2026 年全球石油供应将平均为每日 1.0743 亿桶，而每日平均需求仅为 1.0517 亿桶，导致每日供应过剩达到 226 万桶。</p>
</div><p>From OPEC's perspective, for 2026, <strong>the crude oil supply and demand will largely achieve equilibrium.</strong> OPEC had previously projected in its report that global economic growth for the coming year would remain unchanged at 3.1%, believing that oil demand would remain resilient, and anticipated healthy growth in global oil demand for 2026, increasing by 1.4 mb/d, with total demand reaching 106.5 mb/d.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 OPEC 的角度来看，2026 年 <strong>原油供需将基本实现平衡。</strong> OPEC 此前在报告中预测，未来一年的全球经济增长将保持在 3.1% 不变，认为石油需求将保持韧性，并预计 2026 年全球石油需求将健康增长，增加 14 万桶/日，总需求达到 1.065 亿桶/日。</p>
</div><h2>Investment Bank Forecast: Bearish on 2026 Oil Prices?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资银行预测：对 2026 年油价持悲观态度？</h2>
</div><p>Given the backdrop of supply exceeding demand, Wall Street's major forecasts for 2026 crude oil prices lean towards continued weakness, although specific price targets vary. <strong>The average price is projected to remain between $50-$70 per barrel.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供大于求的背景下，华尔街对 2026 年原油价格的主要预测倾向于持续疲软，尽管具体价格目标有所不同。<strong>预计平均价格将在每桶 50 至 70 美元之间。</strong></p>
</div><p>UBS believes that the supply contraction from low-cost shale oil producers and the sustained growth in petrochemical demand will drive a recovery in crude oil prices, forecasting that by the end of 2026, <strong>Brent crude will rise to $67/barrel, while WTI crude will increase to $64/barrel.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银认为，低成本页岩油生产商的供应收缩和石化需求的持续增长将推动原油价格回升，预测到 2026 年底，<strong>布伦特原油将上涨至每桶 67 美元，而 WTI 原油将上涨至每桶 64 美元。</strong></p>
</div><p>According to Barclays, geopolitical tensions could boost crude oil prices, but a slowdown in cyclical demand may pose downside risks. They anticipate Brent crude will hover around <strong>$65 per barrel</strong> on average in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据巴克莱的说法，地缘政治紧张局势可能会推高原油价格，但周期性需求放缓可能带来下行风险。他们预计 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格将徘徊在 <strong>每桶 65 美元</strong> 左右。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley identifies three key factors supporting crude oil prices: widespread market expectations of an oversupply, decreasing oil inventories, and OPEC+ production cuts. These factors are expected to keep Brent crude prices at <strong>$60/barrel</strong> .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，支撑原油价格的三个关键因素是：市场普遍预期供过于求、石油库存减少以及 OPEC+ 减产。这些因素预计将使布伦特原油价格保持在 <strong>每桶 60 美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan is more conservative, predicting that oil prices will fall below the $60 mark in 2016, potentially dropping to $30 in 2027. Currently, JPMorgan forecasts an average Brent crude price of <strong>$58/barrel</strong> and WTI crude at <strong>$54/barrel for 2026.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通的预测更为保守，预计油价将在 2016 年跌破 60 美元，可能在 2027 年降至 30 美元。目前，摩根大通预测 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 58 美元</strong>，WTI 原油为 <strong>每桶 54 美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Among all investment banks, Goldman Sachs holds the most pessimistic outlook, forecasting an average Brent crude price of <strong>$56/barrel</strong> and an average WTI crude price of <strong>$52/barrel</strong> in 2026. Goldman Sachs identifies two primary drivers for weak crude oil prices in 2026: a global economic slowdown and increased OPEC+ supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在所有投资银行中，高盛持有最悲观的展望，预测 2026 年布伦特原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 56 美元</strong>，WTI 原油的平均价格为 <strong>每桶 52 美元</strong>。高盛指出，2026 年原油价格疲软的两个主要驱动因素是全球经济放缓和 OPEC+ 供应增加。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Investment Bank</strong></td>
<td><strong>Brent Crude Price ($/barrel)</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI Crude Price ($/barrel)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UBS</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Barclays</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Morgan Stanley</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JPMorgan</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Goldman Sachs</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>投资银行</strong></td>
<td><strong>布伦特原油价格（$/桶）</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI 原油价格（$/桶）</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>瑞银</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴克莱</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根士丹利</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根大通</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>高盛</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Conclusion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>The crude oil market experienced severe turbulence in 2025, trending downwards overall after two peaks during the year, with WTI and Brent both falling over 20%. These sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices were primarily event-driven, propelled by factors such as soft demand, oversupply, and the interplay of geopolitical developments. Looking ahead to 2026, both the IEA and EIA anticipate that supply growth will exceed demand, suggesting the market may remain under pressure, whereas OPEC expects a move towards equilibrium. According to major Wall Street investment banks, crude oil prices are projected to remain soft, fluctuating between $56 and $67 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油市场在 2025 年经历了剧烈波动，整体呈下行趋势，在年内经历了两次峰值，WTI 和布伦特均下跌超过 20%。这些原油价格的剧烈波动主要是由事件驱动的，受到需求疲软、供过于求和地缘政治发展的相互作用等因素的推动。展望 2026 年，国际能源署和能源信息署预计供应增长将超过需求，暗示市场可能仍将承压，而 OPEC 则预计将向平衡迈进。根据华尔街主要投资银行的预测，原油价格预计将保持疲软，波动在每桶 56 至 67 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
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TradingKey 市场回顾与展望 | 2025 年原油价格崩溃，油价能否在 2026 年反弹？