<p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。）</p>
<p>作者：Neil Unmack</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 30 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——私人信贷业务正在失去其独特优势。像 ARES Management（ARES.N）和 Blackstone（BX.N）这样的集团曾经在摩根大通（JPM.N）等银行的眼皮底下抢走交易，并凭借提供定制条款获得丰厚收益。现在的不同之处在于，银行们已经重新焕发活力，而直接贷款人则在零售工具上重金下注，这些工具允许投资者兑现。综合来看，2 万亿美元的私人信贷行业正越来越像公共信贷，这意味着回报率降低。在疫情后的几年里，所谓的直接贷款人成为了杠杆融资领域的王者。这部分是因为竞争的银行业因收购贷款的纸面损失而受到重创，包括埃隆·马斯克 440 亿美元收购推特的贷款。这为私人信贷基金直接向借款人提供贷款铺平了道路，同时提供了速度、确定性和灵活的条款，尽管利率较高。像 Blackstone 这样的直接贷款人资助了一些时代最大的收购，例如 2022 年对 Zendesk 的 100 亿美元收购。与此同时，利率上升使这些新兴公司能够向投资者承诺两位数的回报，这吸引了养老基金和保险公司，助长了这一浪潮。诚然，私人信贷巨头们没有停止的迹象。到 2024 年，该行业的资产稳步增长至 2.4 万亿美元。根据 PitchBook 的数据，2025 年上半年，经典的封闭式机构基金仅筹集了 1130 亿美元。而新的资本来源正越来越多地补充这些传统渠道。所谓的常青基金，如 Blackstone 的 BCRED，因允许在限制条件下赎回而受到富裕个人的青睐，正在快速增长。根据 PitchBook 的估计，这些半流动产品在截至 2025 年 6 月底的六个月内筹集了 480 亿美元，相当于流入经典机构基金的资金的约 40%。而对零售资金的追求将继续。管理者可能很快就能吸引美国退休储蓄者，这得益于唐纳德·特朗普总统在 8 月发布的行政命令。咨询公司 Oliver Wyman 估计，到 2029 年，分配给私人信贷的个人财富现金量可能几乎翻四倍，达到 1.5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，所有这些现金和不断演变的融资模式都提出了新的问题。到 2024 年底，已经筹集的资本正在努力寻找去处，所谓的干粉达到 5430 亿美元。而曾经退缩的银行现在正在反击，受到活跃的信贷市场和美国资本规则放松的鼓舞。投资者需要的额外溢价以补偿垃圾评级债务等高风险资产的违约风险在 2025 年达到了危机后的低点。抵押贷款债务的销售，或吸纳银行打包贷款的工具，也达到了创纪录的水平。这是杠杆收购活动在截至 9 月底的九个月内增长近 17% 至 5870 亿美元的原因之一，依据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
<p>火热的债务市场正在对直接贷款人能够向借款人收取的额外收益施加压力。这个额外的 “溢价”，从投资者的角度来看是该资产类别的关键卖点，历史上相对于更广泛交易的类似债务约为 2 个百分点。根据银行家的说法，在 11 月中旬，这一数字在欧洲已经减半，略高于 1 个百分点，而在美国有时甚至更低。此外，银行的杠杆融资部门在结构交易方面变得更加出色，以吸引像私募股权公司这样的借款人。例如，在欧洲，他们越来越多地提供可以分期提款的贷款，使得资助多项收购变得更加容易。最近的一个例子是贝恩资本对总部位于荷兰的 HSO 进行的约 10 亿美元投资的融资方案。</p>
<p>私人信贷经理正在寻找新的方式来保持忙碌。像 Blue Owl 这样的贷款人已成为资助数据中心等人工智能资产的关键参与者。Marc Rowan 的 Apollo 利用其 Athene 保险部门的资金实力，为评级较高的公司提供定制融资。而专注于小型公司的贷款者仍然可以在主流公共债券或贷款市场之外运作，获得更丰厚的收益。</p>
<p>然而，在经典收购的世界中，私人信贷正变得只是工具箱中的另一项选择。借款人越来越能够将两者相互对立。现在也很常见看到最初由直接贷款人承保的贷款在贷款和债券市场上再融资。根据 PitchBook LCD 的数据，在 2025 年前三季度，这类交易约为 260 亿美元，几乎与反向流动的交易量相匹配。另一个资金部署竞赛的迹象是，穆迪投资者服务公司注意到，私人贷款人越来越乐于在没有契约的情况下提供贷款，这将使他们对陷入困境的借款人拥有更大的权力。这反映了更广泛债务市场中的一种趋势。</p>
<p>退一步来看，私人信贷和传统信贷之间的区别变得越来越难以辨别，这指向了更低的回报。零售基金的增长威胁着进一步缩小这两个领域之间的差距。常青基金允许基于净资产价值的有限赎回，这意味着它们必须定期向财务顾问和监管机构展示一个工具的估值与现实相符。逻辑上的结果是，私人贷款将需要越来越广泛地交易。一个低回报和更高流动性的世界即将来临，削弱了曾经使私人信贷独特的因素。请在 X 上关注 @Unmack1</p>
<p>这是路透社 Breakingviews 对 2026 年的预测。</p>
<p>私人信贷的快速增长的管理资产</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gdvzjjqdwvw/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="872" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gdvzjjqdwvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>私人信贷仍在从机构投资者那里筹集资金</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlqqwxrpb/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="828" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlqqwxrpb/chart.png"/></p>
<p>（编辑：Liam Proud；制作：Oliver Taslic）</p>

ARES

<p>私募信贷行业的估值达到 2 万亿美元，但随着银行实力的恢复和竞争的加剧，其独特优势正在减弱。曾经占据主导地位的直接贷款机构如 ARES Management 和 Blackstone，现在面临来自提供竞争性条款和更低收益的银行的压力。零售投资工具的兴起和融资模式的变化使得市场环境变得复杂，截至 2024 年，未分配资本达到 5430 亿美元。随着银行改善其产品，私募信贷正逐渐成为借款人的标准选择，降低了其以往的吸引力</p>

<p>(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。）</p>
</div><p>By Neil Unmack</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Neil Unmack</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The private credit business is losing its special sauce. Groups like Ares Management (ARES.N) and Blackstone (BX.N) once stole deals from under the nose of JPMorgan (JPM.N) and its ilk, and extracted juicy yields thanks to their ability to offer bespoke terms. What’s different now is that the banks have roared back to life, while direct lenders are betting heavily on retail vehicles, which offer investors the ability to cash out. Add it all up, and the $2 trillion private credit industry is looking increasingly like the public kind, meaning lower returns. In the years following the pandemic, so-called direct lenders became the kings and queens of the leveraged finance world. It was partly because the rival banking sector was pummelled by paper losses on buyout loans, including for Elon Musk’s $44 billion Twitter takeover. That left the field clear for private credit funds to make loans directly to borrowers while offering speed, certainty and flexible terms, albeit at a higher interest rate. Direct lenders like Blackstone financed some of the largest takeovers of the era, like the $10 billion buyout of Zendesk in 2022. Meanwhile, rising rates allowed these upstarts to promise double-digit returns to their investors, which appealed to pension groups and insurers, helping to fuel the wave. Admittedly, the private credit juggernauts show no signs of stopping. The sector has grown assets steadily to $2.4 trillion, as of 2024. Classic closed-end institutional funds raked in $113 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, per PitchBook. And new sources of capital are increasingly supplementing those traditional avenues. So-called evergreen funds like Blackstone’s BCRED, which appeal to wealthy individuals because they allow redemptions subject to limits, are growing quickly. These semi-liquid products raised $48 billion in the six months to the end of June 2025, PitchBook reckons, equivalent to roughly 40% of the money that flowed into classic institutional funds. And the reach for retail cash will continue. Managers may soon be able to court American retirement savers, following an August executive order by President Donald Trump. Consultancy Oliver Wyman estimates that the volume of individual wealth cash allocated to private credit could nearly quadruple by 2029, reaching $1.5 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 30 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——私人信贷业务正在失去其独特优势。像 ARES Management（ARES.N）和 Blackstone（BX.N）这样的集团曾经在摩根大通（JPM.N）等银行的眼皮底下抢走交易，并凭借提供定制条款获得丰厚收益。现在的不同之处在于，银行们已经重新焕发活力，而直接贷款人则在零售工具上重金下注，这些工具允许投资者兑现。综合来看，2 万亿美元的私人信贷行业正越来越像公共信贷，这意味着回报率降低。在疫情后的几年里，所谓的直接贷款人成为了杠杆融资领域的王者。这部分是因为竞争的银行业因收购贷款的纸面损失而受到重创，包括埃隆·马斯克 440 亿美元收购推特的贷款。这为私人信贷基金直接向借款人提供贷款铺平了道路，同时提供了速度、确定性和灵活的条款，尽管利率较高。像 Blackstone 这样的直接贷款人资助了一些时代最大的收购，例如 2022 年对 Zendesk 的 100 亿美元收购。与此同时，利率上升使这些新兴公司能够向投资者承诺两位数的回报，这吸引了养老基金和保险公司，助长了这一浪潮。诚然，私人信贷巨头们没有停止的迹象。到 2024 年，该行业的资产稳步增长至 2.4 万亿美元。根据 PitchBook 的数据，2025 年上半年，经典的封闭式机构基金仅筹集了 1130 亿美元。而新的资本来源正越来越多地补充这些传统渠道。所谓的常青基金，如 Blackstone 的 BCRED，因允许在限制条件下赎回而受到富裕个人的青睐，正在快速增长。根据 PitchBook 的估计，这些半流动产品在截至 2025 年 6 月底的六个月内筹集了 480 亿美元，相当于流入经典机构基金的资金的约 40%。而对零售资金的追求将继续。管理者可能很快就能吸引美国退休储蓄者，这得益于唐纳德·特朗普总统在 8 月发布的行政命令。咨询公司 Oliver Wyman 估计，到 2029 年，分配给私人信贷的个人财富现金量可能几乎翻四倍，达到 1.5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Yet all this cash, and the evolving funding model, raise fresh questions. Capital that has already been raised is struggling to find a home, with $543 billion of so-called dry powder at the end of 2024. And banks who were once in retreat are now fighting back, egged on by buoyant credit markets and softer U.S. capital rules. The extra premium that investors need to compensate for default on risky assets like junk-rated debt was at post-crisis lows in 2025. And sales of collateralised loan obligations, or vehicles that hoover up loans packaged up by banks, are also at record levels. That’s one reason why leveraged buyout activity rose nearly 17% in the nine months to the end of September to $587 billion, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，所有这些现金和不断演变的融资模式都提出了新的问题。到 2024 年底，已经筹集的资本正在努力寻找去处，所谓的干粉达到 5430 亿美元。而曾经退缩的银行现在正在反击，受到活跃的信贷市场和美国资本规则放松的鼓舞。投资者需要的额外溢价以补偿垃圾评级债务等高风险资产的违约风险在 2025 年达到了危机后的低点。抵押贷款债务的销售，或吸纳银行打包贷款的工具，也达到了创纪录的水平。这是杠杆收购活动在截至 9 月底的九个月内增长近 17% 至 5870 亿美元的原因之一，依据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
</div><p>Red-hot debt markets are putting pressure on the extra yield that direct lenders can charge borrowers over and above public alternatives. That added “premium”, which is the key selling point for the asset class from an investor’s point of view, was historically around 2 percentage points relative to the rates on more widely traded similar debt. According to bankers, speaking in mid-November, this figure had halved to just over 1 percentage point in Europe and sometimes less in the United States. Moreover, banks’ leveraged finance desks are getting better at structuring deals to appeal to borrowers like private equity firms. For example, in Europe they are increasingly offering loans that can be drawn down over time, making it easier to fund multiple acquisitions. One recent example is the financing package for Bain Capital’s roughly $1 billion August investment in Netherlands-based HSO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>火热的债务市场正在对直接贷款人能够向借款人收取的额外收益施加压力。这个额外的 “溢价”，从投资者的角度来看是该资产类别的关键卖点，历史上相对于更广泛交易的类似债务约为 2 个百分点。根据银行家的说法，在 11 月中旬，这一数字在欧洲已经减半，略高于 1 个百分点，而在美国有时甚至更低。此外，银行的杠杆融资部门在结构交易方面变得更加出色，以吸引像私募股权公司这样的借款人。例如，在欧洲，他们越来越多地提供可以分期提款的贷款，使得资助多项收购变得更加容易。最近的一个例子是贝恩资本对总部位于荷兰的 HSO 进行的约 10 亿美元投资的融资方案。</p>
</div><p>Private credit managers are finding new ways to keep busy. Lenders like Blue Owl have become key players in funding AI assets like data centres. Marc Rowan’s Apollo uses the firepower from its Athene insurance unit to offer bespoke funding for higher-rated companies. And players that specialise in loans to small companies can still surf below the radar of mainstream public bond or loan markets, obtaining juicier yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷经理正在寻找新的方式来保持忙碌。像 Blue Owl 这样的贷款人已成为资助数据中心等人工智能资产的关键参与者。Marc Rowan 的 Apollo 利用其 Athene 保险部门的资金实力，为评级较高的公司提供定制融资。而专注于小型公司的贷款者仍然可以在主流公共债券或贷款市场之外运作，获得更丰厚的收益。</p>
</div><p>Still, in the world of classic buyouts, private credit is becoming just another item in the toolbox. Borrowers can increasingly play the two sides against one another. It’s also common now to see loans that were originally underwritten by direct lenders get refinanced in loan and bond markets. PitchBook LCD data shows some $26 billion of these deals in the first three quarters of 2025, roughly matching the volume that moved in the other direction. In another sign of the race to deploy funds, Moody’s Investors Service has noted that private lenders are increasingly happy to make loans without covenants, which would give them power over struggling borrowers. That echoes a trend in broader debt markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在经典收购的世界中，私人信贷正变得只是工具箱中的另一项选择。借款人越来越能够将两者相互对立。现在也很常见看到最初由直接贷款人承保的贷款在贷款和债券市场上再融资。根据 PitchBook LCD 的数据，在 2025 年前三季度，这类交易约为 260 亿美元，几乎与反向流动的交易量相匹配。另一个资金部署竞赛的迹象是，穆迪投资者服务公司注意到，私人贷款人越来越乐于在没有契约的情况下提供贷款，这将使他们对陷入困境的借款人拥有更大的权力。这反映了更广泛债务市场中的一种趋势。</p>
</div><p>Step back, then, and it’s becoming increasingly hard to tell the difference between private credit and the conventional kind, which points to lower returns. The growth of retail funds threatens to close the gap between the two worlds even further. Evergreens allow limited redemptions based on a net asset value, which means they must regularly show financial advisers and regulators that a vehicle’s marks are in touch with reality. The logical consequence is that private loans will need to be increasingly widely traded. A world of lower returns and greater liquidity looms, undermining what once made private credit unique. Follow @Unmack1 on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>退一步来看，私人信贷和传统信贷之间的区别变得越来越难以辨别，这指向了更低的回报。零售基金的增长威胁着进一步缩小这两个领域之间的差距。常青基金允许基于净资产价值的有限赎回，这意味着它们必须定期向财务顾问和监管机构展示一个工具的估值与现实相符。逻辑上的结果是，私人贷款将需要越来越广泛地交易。一个低回报和更高流动性的世界即将来临，削弱了曾经使私人信贷独特的因素。请在 X 上关注 @Unmack1</p>
</div><p>This is a Reuters Breakingviews prediction for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是路透社 Breakingviews 对 2026 年的预测。</p>
</div><p>Private credit’s fast-growing assets under management</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷的快速增长的管理资产</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gdvzjjqdwvw/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gdvzjjqdwvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Private credit is still gathering funds from institutional investors</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷仍在从机构投资者那里筹集资金</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlqqwxrpb/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlqqwxrpb/chart.png"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Liam Proud; Production by Oliver Taslic)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：Liam Proud；制作：Oliver Taslic）</p>
</div>

BREAKINGVIEWS-私人信贷将演变为普通信贷