<p>Strategy，前身为 MicroStrategy，其股票跌至新的年度低点。在 12 月 29 日更广泛的科技股抛售后，MSTR 股票下跌了 2.15%，创下 2025 年的新低，报 155.32 美元。</p>
<p>从 2024 年的高点 543 美元来看，MSTR 已经暴跌 71%，为华尔街的空头们提供了丰厚的机会。</p>
<p>尽管一些空头在 11 月开始平仓以实现收益，但 MSTR 的自由下跌并没有减缓。截至发稿时，该股票已回到 2024 年 100-180 美元的价格区间内。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png"/></p>
<p>来源：MSTR，TradingView</p>
<h2><strong>Strategy 股票的看空驱动因素</strong></h2>
<p>过去几周推动看空情绪的因素之一是 MSCI 指数可能将 MSTR 和其他加密货币财务公司剔除的风险。</p>
<p>尽管 Strategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 为公司辩护，称其应作为一家运营公司继续留在全球指数上，但预测网站 Polymarket 在 2026 年初对剔除的可能性定价为 75% 以上。</p>
<p>摩根大通分析师警告称，这样的举动将导致 80 亿美元的资金流出该股票。</p>
<p>甚至有人猜测，剔除将迫使其清算比特币持有，但市场对这种 BTC 抛售的预期仍然较低。</p>
<p>MSCI 在 1 月中旬的决定可能为该股票的下一步方向提供必要的明确性。</p>
<h2><strong>MSTR 稀释</strong></h2>
<p>此外，通过 MSTR 股票销售来资助比特币 [BTC] 购买的持续稀释可能也对股票施加了压力。</p>
<p>根据分析师 Novacula Occami 的说法，Strategy 尽管其 BTC 持有量低于企业价值，但仍出售了价值 40 亿美元的 MSTR。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 7 月公告以来，他们发行了 49 亿美元的 MSTR 普通股，其中 40 亿美元是在 11 月和 12 月以低于 1 的普通 mNAV 发行的。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>该公司早前表示，如果 mNAV 低于 2.5 倍，将不会出售普通股（MSTR），随后将其更改为 1 倍。</p>
<p>总体而言，Strategy 在 2025 年花费了 225 亿美元购买比特币。这几乎是自 2020 年以来其超过 500 亿美元投资于 BTC 的一半。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这笔资金来自 MSTR 和优先股的销售，以及债务。事实上，最新的 1.08 亿美元比特币购买完全由 MSTR 股票销售资助。Strategy 现在拥有 672,497 BTC。</p>
<p>尽管 2025 年出现了大幅抛售，华尔街分析师对 MSTR 股票仍持乐观态度。在过去一个月中，有 13 个买入评级，目标价格范围在 465 美元到 485 美元之间，暗示 170%-200% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png"/></p>
<p>来源：MarketBeat</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>MSTR 在 2025 年下半年经历了大规模抛售后，创下 155 美元的新年度低点。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管如此，华尔街分析师仍预测该股票有 200% 的上涨潜力。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

MSTR

<p>Strategy（前称 MicroStrategy）股票已跌至年度低点 155.32 美元，比 2024 年的高点 543 美元下跌了 71%，这主要是由于对潜在 MSCI 指数退市的担忧。分析师预测，如果退市，将导致 80 亿美元的资金流出，而持续的股票销售以资助比特币购买也增加了压力。尽管股价下跌，华尔街依然保持乐观，13 个买入评级暗示潜在上涨幅度为 170%-200%。MSCI 在 1 月中旬的决定可能会明确该股票未来的方向</p>

<p>Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, saw its stock drop to a fresh yearly low. Following a broader tech sell-off on the 29th of December, MSTR stock dropped by 2.15% to a record 2025 low of $155.32.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy，前身为 MicroStrategy，其股票跌至新的年度低点。在 12 月 29 日更广泛的科技股抛售后，MSTR 股票下跌了 2.15%，创下 2025 年的新低，报 155.32 美元。</p>
</div><p>From its 2024 high of $543, MSTR has crashed by 71%, presenting several Wall Street bears with a windfall opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2024 年的高点 543 美元来看，MSTR 已经暴跌 71%，为华尔街的空头们提供了丰厚的机会。</p>
</div><p>Although some bears began unwinding short positions in November to realize their gains, MSTR’s free fall did not slow down. At press time, the stock was back within the 2024 price range of $100-$180.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管一些空头在 11 月开始平仓以实现收益，但 MSTR 的自由下跌并没有减缓。截至发稿时，该股票已回到 2024 年 100-180 美元的价格区间内。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png"/></p>
<p>Source: MSTR, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：MSTR，TradingView</p>
</div><h2><strong>Strategy stock bearish drivers</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Strategy 股票的看空驱动因素</strong></h2>
</div><p>One of the factors driving bearish sentiment over the past few weeks has been the risk of MSCI index delisting MSTR and other crypto treasury firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几周推动看空情绪的因素之一是 MSCI 指数可能将 MSTR 和其他加密货币财务公司剔除的风险。</p>
</div><p>Although the Strategy founder, Michael Saylor, has defended the firm as an operational company that should remain on the global index, prediction site Polymarket was pricing a +75% chance of delisting in early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Strategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 为公司辩护，称其应作为一家运营公司继续留在全球指数上，但预测网站 Polymarket 在 2026 年初对剔除的可能性定价为 75% 以上。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan analysts warned that such a move would drive $8 billion in outflows from the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通分析师警告称，这样的举动将导致 80 亿美元的资金流出该股票。</p>
</div><p>Some even speculated that the delisting would force liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings, but market expectations for such a BTC sell-off remained low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甚至有人猜测，剔除将迫使其清算比特币持有，但市场对这种 BTC 抛售的预期仍然较低。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI decision in mid-January could offer the needed clarity for the stock’s next direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 在 1 月中旬的决定可能为该股票的下一步方向提供必要的明确性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>MSTR dilution</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>MSTR 稀释</strong></h2>
</div><p>Additionally, the ongoing dilution through MSTR stock sales to fund Bitcoin [BTC] purchases may have contributed to the stock’s pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，通过 MSTR 股票销售来资助比特币 [BTC] 购买的持续稀释可能也对股票施加了压力。</p>
</div><p>According to analyst Novacula Occami, Strategy sold $4 billion worth of MSTR despite its BTC holdings trading below its enterprise value, or mNAV, being below 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据分析师 Novacula Occami 的说法，Strategy 尽管其 BTC 持有量低于企业价值，但仍出售了价值 40 亿美元的 MSTR。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Since that July announcement, they’ve issued $4.9 billion of $MSTR common with $4 billion of that issued at a common mNAV below 1 (in Nov and Dec).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 7 月公告以来，他们发行了 49 亿美元的 MSTR 普通股，其中 40 亿美元是在 11 月和 12 月以低于 1 的普通 mNAV 发行的。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>The firm had earlier stated that it wouldn’t sell the common stock (MSTR) if the mNAV fell below 2.5x, then changed it to 1x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司早前表示，如果 mNAV 低于 2.5 倍，将不会出售普通股（MSTR），随后将其更改为 1 倍。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Strategy has spent $22.5 billion to buy Bitcoin in 2025. This was nearly half of its +$50 billion investment in BTC since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，Strategy 在 2025 年花费了 225 亿美元购买比特币。这几乎是自 2020 年以来其超过 500 亿美元投资于 BTC 的一半。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>This has been funded by MSTR and preferred stock sales, as well as debt. In fact, the latest $108 million BTC buy was wholly funded by MSTR stock sales. Strategy now owns 672,497 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔资金来自 MSTR 和优先股的销售，以及债务。事实上，最新的 1.08 亿美元比特币购买完全由 MSTR 股票销售资助。Strategy 现在拥有 672,497 BTC。</p>
</div><p>That said, despite the massive dump in 2025, Wall Street analysts were still bullish on MSTR stock. There were 13 buy ratings in the past month, with price targets ranging from $465 to $485, implying a 170%-200% upside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 2025 年出现了大幅抛售，华尔街分析师对 MSTR 股票仍持乐观态度。在过去一个月中，有 13 个买入评级，目标价格范围在 465 美元到 485 美元之间，暗示 170%-200% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png"/></p>
<p>Source: MarketBeat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：MarketBeat</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>MSTR printed fresh yearly lows at $155 following a massive dump in H2 2025.</em></li>
<li><em>Still, Wall Street analysts projected a 200% upside potential for the stock.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>MSTR 在 2025 年下半年经历了大规模抛售后，创下 155 美元的新年度低点。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管如此，华尔街分析师仍预测该股票有 200% 的上涨潜力。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Strategy 股票正在下跌，随着 MSCI 裁决的临近，MSTR 接下来会如何发展？