<p>近期银价的走势引起了投资者的高度关注，周一早些时候，银价在一波急剧反弹中突破了每盎司 84 美元，但随后在假期后的低迷交易中回落至 70 美元附近。尽管出现了突然的逆转，但今年银价仍上涨超过 150%，这一走势可能反映了投机性头寸和市场条件收紧的强烈结合。中国的购买活动是推动这一上涨的主要力量，12 月在上海黄金交易所的银合约中参与度很高，导致当地溢价创下历史新高，并推动全球基准价格上涨。需求的增长速度足够强劲，以至于中国唯一的纯银基金上周停止接受新投资者，此前反复的风险警告和更严格的交易规则未能平息社交媒体引发的热情。</p>
<p>中国以外的投资需求也在持续增长。根据彭博社的计算，实物支持的银交易所交易基金的持有量今年增加了超过 1.5 亿盎司，除了一个月外，每个月都有资金流入。尽管总持有量仍低于 2021 年零售驱动的高峰，但这些资金流入在已经紧张的市场中减少了可用供应。投机兴趣也在衍生品中显现，银期货和相关 ETF 的看涨期权购买加速。对于 iShares Silver Trust (SLV) 来说，上周的总看涨期权交易量达到了自 2021 年以来的最高水平，而购买看涨期权相对于保护性看跌期权的成本在 12 月攀升至历史高位，这表明进一步上涨的头寸变得越来越昂贵。</p>
<p>与此同时，一些信号表明此次反弹可能推进得过快。12 月银价上涨超过 25%，创下自 2020 年以来的最大月度涨幅，其相对强弱指数在最近几周大部分时间保持在 70 以上，这一水平通常与超买状态相关。交易所现在正在采取措施管理风险，某些 Comex 银期货合约的保证金将从周一开始上调，这可能迫使一些交易者减少或平仓。背景中仍存在结构性压力，包括伦敦的借贷成本在今年早些时候经历挤压后仍处于高位，以及围绕美国第 232 条款对关键矿产的调查的不确定性。随着黄金在年初上涨，黄金与白银的比率在之前超过 100:1 后现在下降，银价的下一步走势可能取决于投机需求是否继续超过这些新出现的阻力。</p>

<p>银价在突破每盎司 84 美元后回落至约 70 美元，尽管今年上涨超过 150%。此次涨势受到中国强劲需求的推动，特别是在上海黄金交易所，以及对银 ETF 的投资增加。然而，快速上涨引发了对超买状况的担忧，Comex 银期货的保证金将增加。投机兴趣仍然很高，但结构性压力和上升的借贷成本可能会影响未来的价格走势</p>

<p>Silver's recent price action has drawn intense investor focus after a sharp rally carried the metal above $84 an ounce early Monday, before prices slid back toward $70 in thin post-holiday trading. Despite the abrupt reversal, silver remains up more than 150% this year, a move that could reflect a powerful mix of speculative positioning and tightening market conditions. Buying activity in China has been a major force behind the surge, with heavy participation in the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver contract in December pushing local premiums to record highs and pulling global benchmarks higher. The pace of demand became strong enough that China's only pure-play silver fund stopped accepting new investors last week after repeated risk warnings and tighter trading rules failed to cool enthusiasm fueled by social media.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期银价的走势引起了投资者的高度关注，周一早些时候，银价在一波急剧反弹中突破了每盎司 84 美元，但随后在假期后的低迷交易中回落至 70 美元附近。尽管出现了突然的逆转，但今年银价仍上涨超过 150%，这一走势可能反映了投机性头寸和市场条件收紧的强烈结合。中国的购买活动是推动这一上涨的主要力量，12 月在上海黄金交易所的银合约中参与度很高，导致当地溢价创下历史新高，并推动全球基准价格上涨。需求的增长速度足够强劲，以至于中国唯一的纯银基金上周停止接受新投资者，此前反复的风险警告和更严格的交易规则未能平息社交媒体引发的热情。</p>
</div><p>Investment demand outside China has also continued to build. Holdings in physical-backed silver exchange-traded funds have increased by more than 150 million ounces this year, according to Bloomberg calculations, with inflows recorded in every month except one. While total holdings remain below the peak seen during the 2021 retail-driven surge, these inflows have played a role in reducing available supply in an already tight market. Speculative interest has also shown up in derivatives, with call option buying accelerating across both silver futures and related ETFs. For iShares Silver Trust (SLV), total call volume reached its highest level since 2021 last week, while the cost of buying calls relative to protective puts climbed to historical highs in December, suggesting that positioning for further upside has become increasingly expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国以外的投资需求也在持续增长。根据彭博社的计算，实物支持的银交易所交易基金的持有量今年增加了超过 1.5 亿盎司，除了一个月外，每个月都有资金流入。尽管总持有量仍低于 2021 年零售驱动的高峰，但这些资金流入在已经紧张的市场中减少了可用供应。投机兴趣也在衍生品中显现，银期货和相关 ETF 的看涨期权购买加速。对于 iShares Silver Trust (SLV) 来说，上周的总看涨期权交易量达到了自 2021 年以来的最高水平，而购买看涨期权相对于保护性看跌期权的成本在 12 月攀升至历史高位，这表明进一步上涨的头寸变得越来越昂贵。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, several signals suggest the rally may have advanced too quickly. Silver rose more than 25% in December, marking its biggest monthly gain since 2020, and its relative strength index stayed above 70 for much of recent weeks, a level often associated with overbought conditions. Exchanges are now moving to manage risk, with margins on some Comex silver futures contracts set to rise from Monday, potentially forcing some traders to reduce or close positions. Structural strains remain in the background, including elevated borrowing costs in London following a squeeze earlier this year and uncertainty surrounding a US Section 232 probe into critical minerals. With gold having rallied earlier in the year and the gold-silver ratio now falling after previously stretching above 100 to 1, silver's next move could depend on whether speculative demand continues to outweigh these emerging headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，一些信号表明此次反弹可能推进得过快。12 月银价上涨超过 25%，创下自 2020 年以来的最大月度涨幅，其相对强弱指数在最近几周大部分时间保持在 70 以上，这一水平通常与超买状态相关。交易所现在正在采取措施管理风险，某些 Comex 银期货合约的保证金将从周一开始上调，这可能迫使一些交易者减少或平仓。背景中仍存在结构性压力，包括伦敦的借贷成本在今年早些时候经历挤压后仍处于高位，以及围绕美国第 232 条款对关键矿产的调查的不确定性。随着黄金在年初上涨，黄金与白银的比率在之前超过 100:1 后现在下降，银价的下一步走势可能取决于投机需求是否继续超过这些新出现的阻力。</p>
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白银价格创下历史新高，但随着投机活动的加剧，价格随后回落