<p>当你看到像星巴克（SBUX）这样无处不在的品牌时，很容易就会认为这只股票一定是个常胜将军。我们看到咖啡馆人满为患，得排长队的得来速，作为交易者，我们的本能是想要参与其中。这感觉安全而熟悉。但正如我们所知，一个受欢迎的品牌并不总是意味着一笔好的股票交易。</p>
<p>我已经密切关注 SBUX 一段时间了。这是一个偶尔会在扫描器上出现的名字，暗示着潜在的走势。你会看到一丝生机和一个看似可以作为发射台的价格水平。但一次又一次，星巴克证明了自己是失败突破的高手。</p>
<p>那么 SBUX 现在值得买入吗？最近的价格走势可以信任吗，还是这只是另一个等待抓住过于热情的多头的陷阱？在分析了图表和更广泛的市场背景后，我的答案是极其谨慎。虽然从长期来看，买入的诱惑很强，但技术证据表明这只股票应该在观察名单上，而不是在投资组合中。</p>
<h3><strong>最近突破尝试的现实</strong></h3>
<p>突破是波段交易的基础。我们寻找整合、能量积累，然后在强劲的成交量下突破阻力。这个动作是买方掌控局势的绿灯，表明最小阻力的路径是向上。</p>
<p>在过去的一年里，星巴克提供了一堂关于失败突破的精彩课程。在过去的十二个月中，有两个明显的突破尝试。从表面上看，它们看起来很有前景。但实际上，两个尝试都没有持续足够长的时间来维持动能。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1414" height="787" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg"/></p>
<p>最近一次尝试对多头来说尤其令人沮丧。看似反转的走势持续了整整一天。股票上涨，买家蜂拥而入，然后价格立即回落。当一只股票无法在单一交易日内保持突破时，这表明卖方仍然积极并牢牢掌控局势。</p>
<h3><strong>忽视狂热的牛市</strong></h3>
<p>这种疲软在更广泛的市场环境下显得更加令人担忧。我们并不处于熊市或波动范围内。标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克一直在不断创出新高，带动大多数股票上涨。</p>
<p>在强劲的牛市中，涨潮会提升大多数船只。当像星巴克这样的股票未能参与时，表明明显的相对疲弱。当其他大型股票突破并保持涨幅时，SBUX 却在挣扎求生。</p>
<p>许多交易者说服自己，滞后的股票 “应该” 迎来追赶的机会。这是一种危险的心态。股票滞后是有原因的。如果 SBUX 在理想条件下无法反弹，想象一下当更广泛的市场最终回调时它会如何表现。</p>
<h3><strong>长期支撑并不是买入信号</strong></h3>
<p>交易者常常将长期支撑作为买入的理由。他们查看多年的图表，认为反弹是不可避免的。公平地说，星巴克正处于一个历史上吸引买家的区域附近。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1412" height="790" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg"/></p>
<p>但仅仅有支撑并不是买入信号。支撑只是价格可能反应的一个水平，可能仅适合短期交易。支撑位可能会破裂。更重要的是，一只股票可能在支撑位上停留数月，锁定资金，而更好的机会却悄然流逝。这就是交易的机会成本。</p>
<p>现在，几乎没有有意义的积累证据。机构买家似乎在捍卫支撑，但他们并没有积极介入。在这种情况下，买入 SBUX 更多的是希望而非概率。</p>
<h3><strong>在我们买入之前需要改变的事情</strong></h3>
<p>这并不意味着星巴克永远无法投资。图表会变化，当它们变化时，观点也应该随之改变。</p>
<p>为了使 SBUX 成为一个可行的波段交易候选，我们需要一个明确的结构性转变。具体来说，我希望看到经典的道氏理论反转。</p>
<p>这意味着在日线图上形成持续的更高高点和更高低点的模式。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>更高高点：</strong> 价格必须突破之前的阻力位并保持，证明买家愿意支付更高的价格。</li>
<li><strong>更高低点：</strong> 回调必须在之前的低点上找到支撑，表明卖方更早地耗尽了力量。</li>
</ul>
<p>在 SBUX 展示这种行为之前，它不值得考虑。我们需要确认，而不是期待。</p>
<h3><strong>试图抄底的危险</strong></h3>
<p>现在买入星巴克基本上是在试图抄底。这是交易中抓住下跌刀子的等价物。你可能会走运，但成功的几率并不在你这边。</p>
<p>交易是一场概率游戏。在强劲市场中多次失败突破的股票并不为你增加成功的几率。这使你处于弱势地位。</p>
<p>太多交易者在试图成为准确预测知名品牌底部的英雄时爆掉账户。他们让熟悉感蒙蔽了判断，将公司与股票代码混淆。你的工作是增长资本，而不是在股市中做忠实客户。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>黄金回调</p>
<p>使用成交量分析进行波段交易</p>
<p>SLV 抛物线反弹及交易者应关注的下一步</p>

星巴克

<p>星巴克 (SBUX) 在突破尝试上遭遇挫折，这引发了交易者的警惕。尽管当前牛市强劲，SBUX 却未能参与其中，显示出相对的疲弱。近期的价格走势显示缺乏动能，买家无法维持涨幅。长期支撑并不是一个可靠的买入信号，因为这可能导致机会成本。要使 SBUX 成为一个可行的投资，必须展示出更高的高点和更高的低点的模式。目前，购买 SBUX 就像试图抓住一把下跌的刀，交易者面临的风险较大</p>

<p>When you look at a brand as ubiquitous as Starbucks (SBUX), it is easy to assume the stock must be a perennial winner. We see packed cafes and long drive-thru lines, and as traders, our instinct is to want a piece of that action. It feels safe and familiar. But as we know all too well, a popular brand does not always make for a great stock trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当你看到像星巴克（SBUX）这样无处不在的品牌时，很容易就会认为这只股票一定是个常胜将军。我们看到咖啡馆人满为患，得排长队的得来速，作为交易者，我们的本能是想要参与其中。这感觉安全而熟悉。但正如我们所知，一个受欢迎的品牌并不总是意味着一笔好的股票交易。</p>
</div><p>I have been watching SBUX closely for quite some time. It is one of those names that pops up on scanners occasionally, teasing a potential move. You see a flicker of life and a price level that looks like it might finally act as a launchpad. But time and again, Starbucks has proven to be a master of the failed breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我已经密切关注 SBUX 一段时间了。这是一个偶尔会在扫描器上出现的名字，暗示着潜在的走势。你会看到一丝生机和一个看似可以作为发射台的价格水平。但一次又一次，星巴克证明了自己是失败突破的高手。</p>
</div><p>So is SBUX a buy here? Can the recent price action be trusted, or is this just another trap waiting to snag overzealous bulls eager to buy the dip? After analyzing the charts and the broader market context, my answer is one of extreme caution. While the temptation to buy the dip is strong, especially from a long-term perspective, the technical evidence suggests this stock belongs on a watchlist, not in a portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么 SBUX 现在值得买入吗？最近的价格走势可以信任吗，还是这只是另一个等待抓住过于热情的多头的陷阱？在分析了图表和更广泛的市场背景后，我的答案是极其谨慎。虽然从长期来看，买入的诱惑很强，但技术证据表明这只股票应该在观察名单上，而不是在投资组合中。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Reality of Recent Breakout Attempts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>最近突破尝试的现实</strong></h3>
</div><p>Breakouts are the bread and butter of swing trading. We look for consolidation, energy building, and then a push through resistance on strong volume. That move is the green light that buyers are in control and the path of least resistance is higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>突破是波段交易的基础。我们寻找整合、能量积累，然后在强劲的成交量下突破阻力。这个动作是买方掌控局势的绿灯，表明最小阻力的路径是向上。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, Starbucks has delivered a masterclass in failed breakouts. There have been two clear breakout attempts in the last twelve months. On paper, they looked promising. In reality, neither attempt held long enough to sustain momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的一年里，星巴克提供了一堂关于失败突破的精彩课程。在过去的十二个月中，有两个明显的突破尝试。从表面上看，它们看起来很有前景。但实际上，两个尝试都没有持续足够长的时间来维持动能。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg"/></p>
<p>The most recent attempt was particularly discouraging for bulls. What appeared to be a reversal lasted exactly one day. The stock popped, buyers rushed in, and then price immediately rolled over. When a stock cannot hold a breakout for more than a single session, it tells you sellers remain aggressive and firmly in control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近一次尝试对多头来说尤其令人沮丧。看似反转的走势持续了整整一天。股票上涨，买家蜂拥而入，然后价格立即回落。当一只股票无法在单一交易日内保持突破时，这表明卖方仍然积极并牢牢掌控局势。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Ignoring the Raging Bull Market</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>忽视狂热的牛市</strong></h3>
</div><p>This weakness is even more concerning given the broader market environment. We are not in a bear market or a choppy range. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq have been relentlessly pushing to new highs, lifting most stocks along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种疲软在更广泛的市场环境下显得更加令人担忧。我们并不处于熊市或波动范围内。标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克一直在不断创出新高，带动大多数股票上涨。</p>
</div><p>In strong bull markets, a rising tide lifts most boats. When a stock like Starbucks fails to participate, it signals clear relative weakness. While other large-cap stocks are breaking out and holding gains, SBUX is struggling to stay afloat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在强劲的牛市中，涨潮会提升大多数船只。当像星巴克这样的股票未能参与时，表明明显的相对疲弱。当其他大型股票突破并保持涨幅时，SBUX 却在挣扎求生。</p>
</div><p>Many traders convince themselves a lagging stock is “due” for a catch-up move. That is a dangerous mindset. Stocks lag for a reason. If SBUX cannot rally when conditions are ideal, imagine how it will behave when the broader market finally pulls back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多交易者说服自己，滞后的股票 “应该” 迎来追赶的机会。这是一种危险的心态。股票滞后是有原因的。如果 SBUX 在理想条件下无法反弹，想象一下当更广泛的市场最终回调时它会如何表现。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Long-Term Support Is Not a Buy Signal</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>长期支撑并不是买入信号</strong></h3>
</div><p>Traders often point to long-term support as justification for buying. They look at multi-year charts and assume a bounce is inevitable. To be fair, Starbucks is sitting near an area that has historically attracted buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者常常将长期支撑作为买入的理由。他们查看多年的图表，认为反弹是不可避免的。公平地说，星巴克正处于一个历史上吸引买家的区域附近。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg"/></p>
<p>But support alone is not a buy signal. Support is simply a level where price may react, and it may only be suitable for short-term trades. Floors can break. More importantly, a stock can sit on support for months, tying up capital while better opportunities pass by. This is the opportunity cost of trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仅仅有支撑并不是买入信号。支撑只是价格可能反应的一个水平，可能仅适合短期交易。支撑位可能会破裂。更重要的是，一只股票可能在支撑位上停留数月，锁定资金，而更好的机会却悄然流逝。这就是交易的机会成本。</p>
</div><p>Right now, there is little evidence of meaningful accumulation. Institutional buyers appear to be defending support, but they are not aggressively stepping in. Until that changes, buying SBUX is more about hope than probability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，几乎没有有意义的积累证据。机构买家似乎在捍卫支撑，但他们并没有积极介入。在这种情况下，买入 SBUX 更多的是希望而非概率。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What Needs to Change Before We Buy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>在我们买入之前需要改变的事情</strong></h3>
</div><p>This does not mean Starbucks is uninvestable forever. Charts change, and when they do, opinions should change with them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着星巴克永远无法投资。图表会变化，当它们变化时，观点也应该随之改变。</p>
</div><p>For SBUX to become a viable swing-trade candidate, we need a clear structural shift. Specifically, I want to see a classic Dow Theory reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了使 SBUX 成为一个可行的波段交易候选，我们需要一个明确的结构性转变。具体来说，我希望看到经典的道氏理论反转。</p>
</div><p>That means a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着在日线图上形成持续的更高高点和更高低点的模式。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Higher Highs:</strong> Price must break above a prior resistance level and hold, proving buyers are willing to pay higher prices.</li>
<li><strong>Higher Lows:</strong> Pullbacks must find support above previous lows, showing sellers are exhausting themselves sooner.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>更高高点：</strong> 价格必须突破之前的阻力位并保持，证明买家愿意支付更高的价格。</li>
<li><strong>更高低点：</strong> 回调必须在之前的低点上找到支撑，表明卖方更早地耗尽了力量。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Until SBUX demonstrates this behavior, it is not worth considering. We need confirmation, not anticipation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SBUX 展示这种行为之前，它不值得考虑。我们需要确认，而不是期待。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Danger of Trying to Pick a Bottom</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>试图抄底的危险</strong></h3>
</div><p>Buying Starbucks right now is essentially an attempt to pick a bottom. It is the trading equivalent of catching a falling knife. You might get lucky, but the odds are stacked against you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在买入星巴克基本上是在试图抄底。这是交易中抓住下跌刀子的等价物。你可能会走运，但成功的几率并不在你这边。</p>
</div><p>Trading is a game of probabilities. Buying a stock that has failed multiple breakouts during a strong market does not stack the odds in your favor. It puts you in a position of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易是一场概率游戏。在强劲市场中多次失败突破的股票并不为你增加成功的几率。这使你处于弱势地位。</p>
</div><p>Too many traders blow up accounts trying to be heroes who call exact bottoms in well-known brands. They let familiarity cloud judgment and confuse the company with the ticker symbol. Your job is to grow capital, not to be a loyal customer in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>太多交易者在试图成为准确预测知名品牌底部的英雄时爆掉账户。他们让熟悉感蒙蔽了判断，将公司与股票代码混淆。你的工作是增长资本，而不是在股市中做忠实客户。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Gold Pullback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金回调</p>
</div><p>Swing Trading Using Volume Analysis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用成交量分析进行波段交易</p>
</div><p>SLV Parabolic Rally &amp; What Traders Should Watch Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SLV 抛物线反弹及交易者应关注的下一步</p>
</div>

星巴克股票分析：为什么星巴克总是无法成功突破