<p>特斯拉通过首次在其投资者关系网站上发布公司编制的交付共识，迈出了更大透明度的重要一步。此前，这些信息仅在公司内部以及一些机构分析师和主要投资者之间共享，但通常会以某种方式流出到公众视野中。现在，这些信息已公开发布，供普通投资者查看。</p>
<p>根据发布在特斯拉投资者关系网站上的公司编制共识，分析师预计特斯拉将在 2025 年第四季度交付 422,850 辆汽车，并在该季度部署 13.4 GWh 的能源存储。虽然特斯拉谨慎地指出并不支持这些分析师的观点或结论，但公司决定自行发布这些数据标志着信息分发方式的重大转变。</p>
<h3>更清晰的预期视角</h3>
<p>2025 年第四季度的交付估计较 2025 年第三季度的实际总数 497,099 辆有所下降，这与历史季节性和年末生产平衡一致。在预计的第四季度交付中，388,002 辆预计来自 Model 3 和 Model Y，而 34,848 辆则预计来自特斯拉的其他车型，这一看似较高的数字包括 Model S、Model X 和 Cybertruck，这些车型在过去三个季度的平均交付量约为 12,500 辆。</p>
<p>对于 2025 年全年，分析师们共同估计总交付量为 164 万辆，较 2024 年的 179 万辆和 2023 年的 181 万辆有所下降。</p>
<p>特斯拉还包括了前瞻性估计。共识展望在 2026 年上升至 175 万辆，2027 年略超过 200 万辆，到 2029 年年均超过 300 万辆。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_delivery_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="975" height="585" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_delivery_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE"/></p>
<h3>能源存储继续闪耀</h3>
<p>除了汽车，特斯拉的能源业务仍然是一个关键亮点。分析师预计 2025 年能源存储部署将达到 45.9 GWh，2026 年急剧上升至 63.9 GWh，2027 年达到 87.7 GWh，长期估计到 2029 年将达到 141.8 GWh。</p>
<p>这一稳定的上升趋势突显了 Megapack 和 Powerwall 部署的重要性，因为全球对电网规模存储的需求不断增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_energy_storage_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="975" height="585" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_energy_storage_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE"/></p>
<h3>这种趋势会持续吗？</h3>
<p>直到现在，特斯拉的交付预期受到信息不对称的影响，机构投资者和分析师通过私人平台获取编制的共识数据，而散户投资者则依赖于事后分享的零散估计。这常常导致对哪些数字反映真实市场共识与个别分析师意见的混淆。</p>
<p>通过直接在其投资者关系网站上发布公司编制的交付共识，特斯拉减少了这种不平衡，使所有投资者能够同时访问相同的基准预期。附加的背景信息——例如估计数量、中位数和标准差——也帮助投资者更好地理解共识本身及其背后的协议水平。</p>
<p>这是一个小变化，但对透明度具有重要意义，并将成为特斯拉未来投资者沟通的常规内容。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉首次在其投资者关系网站上发布了 2025 年第四季度的交付共识，为所有投资者提供了透明度。分析师预计交付量为 422,850 辆，较 2025 年第三季度的 497,099 辆有所下降。2025 年的总交付量预计为 164 万辆，低于往年。能源存储领域也在增长，预计 2025 年的部署量为 45.9 GWh。此举旨在减少机构投资者与散户投资者之间的信息不对称，提高市场预期的清晰度</p>

<p>Tesla has taken a notable step toward greater transparency by publishing its company-compiled delivery consensus directly on its Investor Relations website for the first time. Previously this information was only shared within the company and some institutional analysts and major investors, but it still usually made its way out into the public view. Now it has been posted publicly for everyday investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉通过首次在其投资者关系网站上发布公司编制的交付共识，迈出了更大透明度的重要一步。此前，这些信息仅在公司内部以及一些机构分析师和主要投资者之间共享，但通常会以某种方式流出到公众视野中。现在，这些信息已公开发布，供普通投资者查看。</p>
</div><p>According to the company compiled consensus, posted to Tesla’s Investor Relations website, analysts expect Tesla to deliver 422,850 vehicles in Q4 2025, alongside 13.4 GWh of energy storage deployments during the quarter. While Tesla is careful to note that it does not endorse these analyst opinions or conclusions, the company’s decision to host the data itself marks a meaningful shift in how this information is distributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据发布在特斯拉投资者关系网站上的公司编制共识，分析师预计特斯拉将在 2025 年第四季度交付 422,850 辆汽车，并在该季度部署 13.4 GWh 的能源存储。虽然特斯拉谨慎地指出并不支持这些分析师的观点或结论，但公司决定自行发布这些数据标志着信息分发方式的重大转变。</p>
</div><h3>A Clearer View Into Expectations</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>更清晰的预期视角</h3>
</div><p>The Q4 2025 delivery estimate represents a sequential decline from Q3 2025’s actual total of 497,099 vehicles, which is consistent with historical seasonality and production balancing late in the year. Of the expected Q4 deliveries, 388,002 units are forecast to come from the Model 3 and Model Y, while 34,848 vehicles are projected from Tesla’s other models, a seemingly high figure that includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, which have averaged around 12,500 deliveries over the last three quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年第四季度的交付估计较 2025 年第三季度的实际总数 497,099 辆有所下降，这与历史季节性和年末生产平衡一致。在预计的第四季度交付中，388,002 辆预计来自 Model 3 和 Model Y，而 34,848 辆则预计来自特斯拉的其他车型，这一看似较高的数字包括 Model S、Model X 和 Cybertruck，这些车型在过去三个季度的平均交付量约为 12,500 辆。</p>
</div><p>For the full year 2025, analysts collectively estimate 1.64 million total deliveries, a dip from the 1.79 million and 1.81 million delivered in 2024 and 2023 respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2025 年全年，分析师们共同估计总交付量为 164 万辆，较 2024 年的 179 万辆和 2023 年的 181 万辆有所下降。</p>
</div><p>Tesla also included forward-looking estimates. The consensus outlook climbs to 1.75 million vehicles in 2026, just over 2.0 million in 2027, and more than 3.0 million annually by 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉还包括了前瞻性估计。共识展望在 2026 年上升至 175 万辆，2027 年略超过 200 万辆，到 2029 年年均超过 300 万辆。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_delivery_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE" alt="" original-src="https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_delivery_consensus.png?resize=975%2C585&amp;ssl=1"/></p>
<h3>Energy Storage Continues To Shine</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>能源存储继续闪耀</h3>
</div><p>Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business remains a key bright spot. Analysts expect 45.9 GWh of energy storage deployments in 2025, rising sharply to 63.9 GWh in 2026 and 87.7 GWh in 2027, with long-term estimates reaching 141.8 GWh by 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了汽车，特斯拉的能源业务仍然是一个关键亮点。分析师预计 2025 年能源存储部署将达到 45.9 GWh，2026 年急剧上升至 63.9 GWh，2027 年达到 87.7 GWh，长期估计到 2029 年将达到 141.8 GWh。</p>
</div><p>This steady upward trend highlights the growing importance of Megapack and Powerwall deployments as grid-scale storage demand increases worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一稳定的上升趋势突显了 Megapack 和 Powerwall 部署的重要性，因为全球对电网规模存储的需求不断增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_energy_storage_consensus.png/query-cmVzaXplPTk3NSw1ODUmc3NsPTE" alt="" original-src="https://i0.wp.com/driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tesla_annual_energy_storage_consensus.png?resize=975%2C585&amp;ssl=1"/></p>
<h3>Will This Continue?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>这种趋势会持续吗？</h3>
</div><p>Until now, Tesla’s delivery expectations were affected by information asymmetry, where institutional investors and analysts had access to compiled consensus data through private platforms, while retail investors relied on scattered estimates shared after the fact. That often led to confusion about which numbers reflected true market consensus versus individual analyst opinions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到现在，特斯拉的交付预期受到信息不对称的影响，机构投资者和分析师通过私人平台获取编制的共识数据，而散户投资者则依赖于事后分享的零散估计。这常常导致对哪些数字反映真实市场共识与个别分析师意见的混淆。</p>
</div><p>By publishing its company-compiled delivery consensus directly on its investor relations website, Tesla reduces that imbalance and gives all investors access to the same baseline expectations at the same time. The added context—such as the number of estimates, median values, and standard deviation—also helps investors better understand both the consensus itself and the level of agreement behind it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过直接在其投资者关系网站上发布公司编制的交付共识，特斯拉减少了这种不平衡，使所有投资者能够同时访问相同的基准预期。附加的背景信息——例如估计数量、中位数和标准差——也帮助投资者更好地理解共识本身及其背后的协议水平。</p>
</div><p>It’s a small change with meaningful implications for transparency, and one that will become a regular fixture of Tesla’s investor communications going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个小变化，但对透明度具有重要意义，并将成为特斯拉未来投资者沟通的常规内容。</p>
</div>

Tesla publishes Q4 2025 delivery consensus for the first time

- 特斯拉首次在投资者关系网站上公开交付共识数据。  
- Q4 2025 预计交付车辆为 422,850 辆，较 Q3 下降。  
- 能源存储部署预计在 2025 年达到 45.9 GWh，显示增长潜力。

特斯拉首次发布 2025 年第四季度的交付预期