<p>（这里表达的观点是作者的个人观点。）</p>
<p>作者：安娜·西曼斯基</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 31 日（路透社）——过去的一年不会被轻易遗忘。在 2025 年，关于经济和投资者行为的传统思维经常受到挑战，因为技术、能源和地缘政治的剧变以常常出乎意料的方式推动了市场。以下是 10 张图表，帮助解释 2025 年发生了什么，以及这对明年可能意味着什么。</p>
<h3>贸易愤怒</h3>
<p>唐纳德·特朗普的 “美国优先” 议程在 2025 年成为关键市场驱动因素——尤其是在上半年——因为美国总统毫不犹豫地兑现了他从自由贸易转向 “公平” 贸易的竞选承诺。美国贸易政策的不确定性——根据贝克 - 布卢姆 - 大卫模型测量——在特朗普于 4 月 4 日 “解放日” 宣布大规模进口关税后达到了历史最高点。该指数此后有所缓解，但仍处于历史高位，几乎是特朗普第一任期峰值的两倍。</p>
<p>关税回顾 去年此时，美国进口的平均有效关税率约为 2.5%。现在几乎达到了 17%，是自 1935 年以来的最高水平。这代表了美国 GDP 占比最大的税收增加，超过 30 年来的最高水平。令许多人感到惊讶的是，尽管美国的贸易战略发生了巨大变化，美国经济和全球其他经济体表现得相当良好。美国 GDP 在第三季度以健康的年化增长率 4.3% 增长。消费者和企业在明年会同样具有韧性吗？这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。美元的可怕一年 2025 年初，华尔街分析师的共识是，美元会因 “美国例外主义” 的叙述和特朗普政府的回流政策而走强，吸引来自全球的资本潮。</p>
<p>然而，美元（USD=）对一篮子主要货币下跌了约 10%。到 6 月底，美元下跌了 12%——这是自自由浮动汇率时代开始以来任何日历年中最糟糕的上半年。咨询神谕 “七大科技巨头” 美国科技股在 2025 年表现出色，受到围绕人工智能的热潮推动，但随着年末的临近，投资者对超大规模企业巨额、日益依赖债务的人工智能资本支出感到担忧。甲骨文（ORCL.N）的股价表现反映了这一趋势。这家美国云计算巨头的股票在 9 月份因积极的收入预测在一天内上涨了 36%，随后开始下滑，本月初在两天内下跌了 15%——这种幅度的下跌仅在 COVID-19 大流行、2008 年全球金融危机和 1990 年代互联网泡沫破裂期间出现过。</p>
<p>如果甲骨文是投资者对人工智能更广泛情绪的风向标，那么科技驱动的股市反弹可能会面临坎坷的道路。</p>
<p>‘我的宝贝’</p>
<p>2025 年，黄金和白银价格飙升，避险需求和对美国进一步降息的押注推动了贵金属的急剧反弹。</p>
<p>白银（XAG=）在 12 月 29 日首次突破每盎司 80 美元，受到强劲的工业需求、持续的供应短缺和动量驱动的买入推动。尽管黄金价格（XAU=）自上周创下每盎司超过 4500 美元的历史高点以来有所下跌，但这种黄色金属看起来有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p>
<p>现在的风险是，均值回归将在 2026 年显现出其丑陋的一面，导致急剧而痛苦的回调。</p>
<h3>欧洲重装上阵</h3>
<p>自 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，欧洲防务股票的价值已超过三倍，这场战争现在进入第四年。该行业在 2025 年单年增长超过 50%，受到德国将花费高达一万亿欧元用于国防和基础设施的宣布的推动。</p>
<p>这一价格变动反映了今年许多全球主题，包括美国日益孤立主义、地缘政治紧张局势上升以及对欧洲经济重启的预期。</p>
<p>这也有助于解释 2025 年其他一些显著的市场变动，包括欧元/美元汇率（EUR=）的激增、欧洲股票相对于华尔街的表现优异以及长期德国国债收益率的上升。</p>
<p>供应冲击缓冲器 油价（LCOc1）在以色列于 6 月 12 日对伊朗发起轰炸行动后，从 70 美元飙升至 81 美元，激发了人们对德黑兰可能封锁重要霍尔木兹海峡的担忧。但这一激增是短暂的，因为所谓的 “12 天战争” 迅速结束。这反映了一个长期趋势：地缘政治紧张局势仍然会在能源价格中造成波动，但价格变动只有在供应受到干扰时才会持续，而不仅仅是受到威胁。即便如此，全球能源市场越来越能够适应，降低了突发事件导致供需之间持久失衡的风险。</p>
<p>电力提升 美国电池储存市场在 2025 年成为美国能源市场中最热门的细分市场，容量有望创纪录地增加 12 吉瓦，总量约为 40 吉瓦。同时，中国的电池和电池储能系统（BESS）出口在 2025 年创下新纪录，较去年同期增长 24%。</p>
<p>公用事业规模的储存系统使电力公司能够更好地利用可再生能源，通过储存多余的太阳能输出，在电力需求高峰期释放。电池储存将在未来一年成为一个关键趋势。</p>
<p>亚洲的太阳能魅力 亚洲长期以来一直是全球太阳能产业的主要推动力，制造了绝大多数太阳能组件，并占全球太阳能发电厂安装量的一半以上。到 2025 年，亚洲进一步扩大了领先优势，代表了今年迄今全球太阳能发电增长的近 70%，以及创纪录的 59% 的所有公用事业供应的太阳能。考虑到特朗普政府对可再生能源的抵制以及欧洲日益关注能源安全，亚洲的太阳能主导地位可能在未来 12 个月内加深。</p>
<p>停电 西班牙和葡萄牙在 4 月 28 日遭遇了前所未有的停电，这是欧洲历史上最大的停电。多种因素的结合——包括太阳能电厂故障和低系统惯性——引发了一场灾难性的连锁反应。停电迅速得到解决，但暴露了现代电网面临的挑战。政策制定者可能会在未来更加关注这些脆弱性，因为人工智能驱动的电力竞争正在加剧。</p>
<p>（此处表达的观点为作者及路透社开放兴趣编辑的观点）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。ROI 提供从掉期利率到大豆的深思熟虑、数据驱动的分析。市场变化比以往任何时候都快。ROI 可以帮助您跟上。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
<p>美国贸易不确定性在今年达到了创纪录的水平</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgmmngapq/2025d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="949" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgmmngapq/2025d.png"/></p>
<p>回到起点：19 世纪的关税税率</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/dwpkqlerxpm/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="882" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/dwpkqlerxpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>美元的 “可怕年份”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byprbbjlwpe/2025b.png.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1917" height="778" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byprbbjlwpe/2025b.png.jpg"/></p>
<p>甲骨文的人工智能热潮逆转</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-AUTOMATED/ORCL-LAST-365D/egpbblkmqpq/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="878" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-AUTOMATED/ORCL-LAST-365D/egpbblkmqpq/chart.png"/></p>
<p>闪光的东西不一定是金子：白银引领贵金属反弹</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2392" height="994" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>自 2022 年 2 月以来欧洲防务股票表现</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/DEFENCE-EUROPE/zgvoyjyeavd/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1820" height="934" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/DEFENCE-EUROPE/zgvoyjyeavd/chart.png"/></p>
<p>石油供应冲击</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-PRICE/akvexgdrwpr/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2232" height="930" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-PRICE/akvexgdrwpr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>美国电池储能容量</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/egvbbbagxvq/USBatteryCapacityGrowthDec2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1846" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/egvbbbagxvq/USBatteryCapacityGrowthDec2025.png"/></p>
<p>各地区太阳能发电量</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/klvyjjdrwpg/SolarGenbyregionto2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1824" height="706" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/klvyjjdrwpg/SolarGenbyregionto2025.png"/></p>
<p>西班牙电力</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpojlgwwvd/Pasted%20image%201745962594179.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="967" height="602" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpojlgwwvd/Pasted%20image%201745962594179.png"/></p>
<p>（撰稿：安娜·西曼斯基 编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>

<p>在 2025 年，市场受到技术、能源和地缘政治变化的显著影响。主要亮点包括美国关税上升至近 17%，美元贬值 10%，以及由于避险需求导致黄金和白银价格飙升。美国科技行业，特别是人工智能股票，面临波动，而欧洲防御类股票在持续的地缘政治紧张局势中价值三倍增长。由于中东冲突，油价短暂飙升，显示出地缘政治事件对能源市场的影响。总体而言，2025 年标志着意外的经济变化和投资者行为</p>

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里表达的观点是作者的个人观点。）</p>
</div><p>By Anna Szymanski</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安娜·西曼斯基</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - This past year won’t soon be forgotten. In 2025, conventional thinking about economics and investor behavior was frequently challenged, as dramatic changes in technology, energy and geopolitics drove markets in often unexpected ways. Here are 10 charts that help explain what happened in 2025 and what it might mean for next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 31 日（路透社）——过去的一年不会被轻易遗忘。在 2025 年，关于经济和投资者行为的传统思维经常受到挑战，因为技术、能源和地缘政治的剧变以常常出乎意料的方式推动了市场。以下是 10 张图表，帮助解释 2025 年发生了什么，以及这对明年可能意味着什么。</p>
</div><h3>TRADE TANTRUM</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>贸易愤怒</h3>
</div><p>Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda proved to be a key market driver in 2025 – particularly in the first half of the year – as the U.S. president wasted no time delivering on his campaign promises to shift from free trade to “fair” trade. U.S. trade policy uncertainty – as measured by the Baker-Bloom-David model – hit an all-time high after Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on April 4, “Liberation Day.” The index has since eased, but it remains in historically elevated territory, almost double the peaks of Trump’s first administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普的 “美国优先” 议程在 2025 年成为关键市场驱动因素——尤其是在上半年——因为美国总统毫不犹豫地兑现了他从自由贸易转向 “公平” 贸易的竞选承诺。美国贸易政策的不确定性——根据贝克 - 布卢姆 - 大卫模型测量——在特朗普于 4 月 4 日 “解放日” 宣布大规模进口关税后达到了历史最高点。该指数此后有所缓解，但仍处于历史高位，几乎是特朗普第一任期峰值的两倍。</p>
</div><p>TARIFF THROWBACK At this time last year, the average effective tariff rate on imports into the U.S. was around 2.5%. It is now almost 17%, the highest level since 1935. This represents the biggest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP in more than 30 years. To the surprise of many, the U.S. economy and others around the world have coped remarkably well despite this massive change in America’s trade strategy. U.S. GDP grew at a healthy annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter. Will consumers and businesses be as resilient next year? That remains an open question. DOLLAR’S ANNUS HORRIBILIS The consensus among Wall Street analysts at the start of 2025 was that the dollar would strengthen as the “U.S. exceptionalism” narrative and Trump administration’s onshoring attracted waves of capital from around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税回顾 去年此时，美国进口的平均有效关税率约为 2.5%。现在几乎达到了 17%，是自 1935 年以来的最高水平。这代表了美国 GDP 占比最大的税收增加，超过 30 年来的最高水平。令许多人感到惊讶的是，尽管美国的贸易战略发生了巨大变化，美国经济和全球其他经济体表现得相当良好。美国 GDP 在第三季度以健康的年化增长率 4.3% 增长。消费者和企业在明年会同样具有韧性吗？这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。美元的可怕一年 2025 年初，华尔街分析师的共识是，美元会因 “美国例外主义” 的叙述和特朗普政府的回流政策而走强，吸引来自全球的资本潮。</p>
</div><p>Instead, the dollar (USD=) has fallen around 10% against a basket of major currencies. By the end of June, it was down 12% - its worst first half of any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates began over half a century ago. CONSULTING THE ORACLE The “Magnificent Seven” U.S. technology stocks have dramatically outperformed in 2025, fuelled by the euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence, but as the year progressed, investor concerns grew regarding hyperscalers’ massive, increasingly debt-fuelled AI capex outlays. The share price performance of Oracle (ORCL.N) reflects this trajectory. The U.S. cloud computing giant’s stock rose 36% in a single day in September on positive revenue projections, then began to slide, dropping 15% in two days earlier this month - a magnitude of decline seen only during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 1990s dot-com crash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美元（USD=）对一篮子主要货币下跌了约 10%。到 6 月底，美元下跌了 12%——这是自自由浮动汇率时代开始以来任何日历年中最糟糕的上半年。咨询神谕 “七大科技巨头” 美国科技股在 2025 年表现出色，受到围绕人工智能的热潮推动，但随着年末的临近，投资者对超大规模企业巨额、日益依赖债务的人工智能资本支出感到担忧。甲骨文（ORCL.N）的股价表现反映了这一趋势。这家美国云计算巨头的股票在 9 月份因积极的收入预测在一天内上涨了 36%，随后开始下滑，本月初在两天内下跌了 15%——这种幅度的下跌仅在 COVID-19 大流行、2008 年全球金融危机和 1990 年代互联网泡沫破裂期间出现过。</p>
</div><p>If Oracle is a bellwether of investors’ broader sentiment about AI, there could be a rocky road ahead for the tech-powered equity rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果甲骨文是投资者对人工智能更广泛情绪的风向标，那么科技驱动的股市反弹可能会面临坎坷的道路。</p>
</div><p>‘MY PRECIOUS’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘我的宝贝’</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver prices have soared in 2025, as safe-haven demand and bets on further U.S. interest rate cuts have fuelled a sharp rally in precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年，黄金和白银价格飙升，避险需求和对美国进一步降息的押注推动了贵金属的急剧反弹。</p>
</div><p>Silver (XAG=) eclipsed $80 an ounce for the first time ever on December 29, driven by strong industrial demand, persistent supply shortfalls, and momentum-driven buying. While gold prices (XAU=) have fallen since hitting a record-high above $4,500 an ounce last week, the yellow metal looks set to deliver its biggest annual gain since 1979.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银（XAG=）在 12 月 29 日首次突破每盎司 80 美元，受到强劲的工业需求、持续的供应短缺和动量驱动的买入推动。尽管黄金价格（XAU=）自上周创下每盎司超过 4500 美元的历史高点以来有所下跌，但这种黄色金属看起来有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The risk now is that mean reversion will rear its ugly head in 2026, resulting in a sharp and painful pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的风险是，均值回归将在 2026 年显现出其丑陋的一面，导致急剧而痛苦的回调。</p>
</div><h3>EUROPE RELOADS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>欧洲重装上阵</h3>
</div><p>European defense stocks have more than tripled in value since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a war now heading into its fourth year. The sector has gained more than 50% in 2025 alone, spurred by the announcement that Germany will spend up to a trillion euros on defense and infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，欧洲防务股票的价值已超过三倍，这场战争现在进入第四年。该行业在 2025 年单年增长超过 50%，受到德国将花费高达一万亿欧元用于国防和基础设施的宣布的推动。</p>
</div><p>This price move speaks to many of this year’s global themes, including increasing U.S. isolationism, rising geopolitical tensions and expectations for a European economic reboot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一价格变动反映了今年许多全球主题，包括美国日益孤立主义、地缘政治紧张局势上升以及对欧洲经济重启的预期。</p>
</div><p>And it also helps explain some other notable 2025 market moves, including the surge in the euro/dollar rate (EUR=) , the outperformance of European stocks versus Wall Street and rising long-dated German bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也有助于解释 2025 年其他一些显著的市场变动，包括欧元/美元汇率（EUR=）的激增、欧洲股票相对于华尔街的表现优异以及长期德国国债收益率的上升。</p>
</div><p>SUPPLY SHOCK ABSORBER Oil prices (LCOc1) jumped from $70 to $81 a barrel after Israel launched a bombing campaign in Iran on June 12, sparking fears that Tehran would block the all-important Strait of Hormuz. But the spike was short-lived as the so-called “12-day war” ended swiftly. This speaks to a longer-term trend: geopolitical tensions still create volatility in energy prices, but price shifts only stick when supply is disrupted, not simply threatened. And even then, global energy markets are increasingly able to adapt, reducing the risk that a surprise event will cause a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应冲击缓冲器 油价（LCOc1）在以色列于 6 月 12 日对伊朗发起轰炸行动后，从 70 美元飙升至 81 美元，激发了人们对德黑兰可能封锁重要霍尔木兹海峡的担忧。但这一激增是短暂的，因为所谓的 “12 天战争” 迅速结束。这反映了一个长期趋势：地缘政治紧张局势仍然会在能源价格中造成波动，但价格变动只有在供应受到干扰时才会持续，而不仅仅是受到威胁。即便如此，全球能源市场越来越能够适应，降低了突发事件导致供需之间持久失衡的风险。</p>
</div><p>POWER UP The U.S. battery storage market has been the hottest segment of the American energy market in 2025, with capacity on track to jump by a record 12 gigawatts to a total of roughly 40 GW. Meanwhile, China’s exports of batteries and battery energy storage systems (BESS) hit a record in 2025, soaring by 24% from the year before over the first nine months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电力提升 美国电池储存市场在 2025 年成为美国能源市场中最热门的细分市场，容量有望创纪录地增加 12 吉瓦，总量约为 40 吉瓦。同时，中国的电池和电池储能系统（BESS）出口在 2025 年创下新纪录，较去年同期增长 24%。</p>
</div><p>Utility-scale storage systems allow power firms to make better use of renewable power supplies by storing surplus solar output that can then be discharged during peak power demand periods. Battery storage will be a key trend to track in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公用事业规模的储存系统使电力公司能够更好地利用可再生能源，通过储存多余的太阳能输出，在电力需求高峰期释放。电池储存将在未来一年成为一个关键趋势。</p>
</div><p>ASIA’S SOLAR FLAIR Asia has long been the primary driver of the global solar power industry, manufacturing the vast majority of solar components and accounting for over half of global solar farm installations. In 2025, Asia widened its lead, representing nearly 70% of the global rise in solar generation so far this year as well as a record 59% of all utility-supplied solar power. Given the Trump administration’s pushback on renewables and Europe’s increasing focus on energy security, Asia’s solar dominance may deepen over the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲的太阳能魅力 亚洲长期以来一直是全球太阳能产业的主要推动力，制造了绝大多数太阳能组件，并占全球太阳能发电厂安装量的一半以上。到 2025 年，亚洲进一步扩大了领先优势，代表了今年迄今全球太阳能发电增长的近 70%，以及创纪录的 59% 的所有公用事业供应的太阳能。考虑到特朗普政府对可再生能源的抵制以及欧洲日益关注能源安全，亚洲的太阳能主导地位可能在未来 12 个月内加深。</p>
</div><p>POWER DOWN Spain and Portugal suffered an unprecedented power outage on April 28, the largest in Europe’s history. A combination of factors - including a solar plant failure and low system inertia - triggered a catastrophic chain reaction. The blackout was resolved quickly, but it exposed the challenges modern power grids face. Policymakers are likely to zero in on such vulnerabilities moving forward as the AI-driven race for power heats up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>停电 西班牙和葡萄牙在 4 月 28 日遭遇了前所未有的停电，这是欧洲历史上最大的停电。多种因素的结合——包括太阳能电厂故障和低系统惯性——引发了一场灾难性的连锁反应。停电迅速得到解决，但暴露了现代电网面临的挑战。政策制定者可能会在未来更加关注这些脆弱性，因为人工智能驱动的电力竞争正在加剧。</p>
</div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, the Editor in Charge of Reuters Open Interest) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此处表达的观点为作者及路透社开放兴趣编辑的观点）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。ROI 提供从掉期利率到大豆的深思熟虑、数据驱动的分析。市场变化比以往任何时候都快。ROI 可以帮助您跟上。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>​</p>
<p>​</p>
<p>U.S. trade uncertainty hit record levels this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国贸易不确定性在今年达到了创纪录的水平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgmmngapq/2025d.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgmmngapq/2025d.png"/></p>
<p>Back to the beginning: tariff rates from the 1800s</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到起点：19 世纪的关税税率</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/dwpkqlerxpm/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/dwpkqlerxpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>The U.S. dollar’s ‘annus horribilis’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元的 “可怕年份”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byprbbjlwpe/2025b.png.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byprbbjlwpe/2025b.png.jpg"/></p>
<p>Oracle’s AI rally shifts into reverse</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的人工智能热潮逆转</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-AUTOMATED/ORCL-LAST-365D/egpbblkmqpq/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-AUTOMATED/ORCL-LAST-365D/egpbblkmqpq/chart.png"/></p>
<p>All that glitters is not gold: Silver leads precious metals rally charge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪光的东西不一定是金子：白银引领贵金属反弹</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>European defense stocks performance since February 2022</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 2 月以来欧洲防务股票表现</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/DEFENCE-EUROPE/zgvoyjyeavd/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/DEFENCE-EUROPE/zgvoyjyeavd/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Oil supply shocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油供应冲击</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-PRICE/akvexgdrwpr/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-PRICE/akvexgdrwpr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>US battery energy storage capacity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国电池储能容量</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/egvbbbagxvq/USBatteryCapacityGrowthDec2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/egvbbbagxvq/USBatteryCapacityGrowthDec2025.png"/></p>
<p>Solar generation by region</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各地区太阳能发电量</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/klvyjjdrwpg/SolarGenbyregionto2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/klvyjjdrwpg/SolarGenbyregionto2025.png"/></p>
<p>Spain power</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西班牙电力</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpojlgwwvd/Pasted%20image%201745962594179.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpojlgwwvd/Pasted%20image%201745962594179.png"/></p>
<p>(Writing by Anna Szymanski Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰稿：安娜·西曼斯基 编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
</div>

投资回报率——刚刚发生了什么？十张图表帮助理解 2025 年的市场动态