<p><strong>Lilac Nachum</strong></p>
<p>非洲是全球农业潜力最丰富的大陆，但在全球农业商业中仍然处于边缘地位。这一悖论正是非洲发展挑战的核心所在。</p>
<p>非洲的土地几乎占全球总量的一半。大部分土地可以用于种植作物。它的土地保护程度较低，森林覆盖率不高，人口密度也低。该大陆的气候支持 80% 的全球食品生长。经济理论预测，这些条件将导致强劲的出口表现。然而，根据世界银行的数据，非洲在全球农业出口中的份额是最低的，从 1960 年的约 8% 下降到 2020 年代初的 4%。</p>
<p>政策制定者在很大程度上忽视了农业商业的出口表现，只有少数例外，如肯尼亚和加纳。农业商业指的是生产、加工、分销和营销农业产品的整个活动范围。</p>
<p>尽管农业商业是 GDP 和就业的最大贡献者，但其获得的政府支出比例却不成比例地小（平均为 4%），远低于其经济重要性。各国之间存在差异，马里和南苏丹分别为 8% 和 7%，而肯尼亚和加纳则低于 3%。许多政府选择制造业作为全球一体化的路径。</p>
<p>基于三十多年的全球市场和发展研究、咨询和教学的见解，我认为农业可以引领非洲融入世界经济。需要进行四项改革：改善资本获取；土地登记；设计针对性的跨境政策；以及战略性地运用贸易政策。</p>
<p>通过这些方式，非洲可以利用其自然资产实现广泛的经济增长，并在全球价值链中占据更强的位置。</p>
<p><strong>支持农业商业的四项改革</strong></p>
<p><strong>1. 改善资本获取</strong></p>
<p>资本短缺仍然是非洲农业商业面临的最严重制约。金融机构因高风险、长期投资周期、抵押品不足以及利润易受价格冲击的影响而不愿放贷。世界银行估计，农业仅获得约 1% 的商业贷款，尽管其对 GDP 的贡献在 25%-40% 之间（在尼日利亚和埃塞俄比亚可达 6%）。贷款利率通常是经济整体平均水平的两倍，联合国粮农组织的数据表明乌干达的情况就是如此。</p>
<p>政府可以帮助弥补这一融资缺口。2024 年，肯尼亚为发展其茶叶生产分配了 770 万美元。国内投资可以通过减少食品进口支出来产生储蓄。例如，尼日利亚的 Tomato Jos 项目每年减少了 3.6 亿美元的番茄酱进口。</p>
<p>政府应扩大公共贷款，同时通过风险分担机制促进私营部门参与。南非的 Khula 信用担保计划展示了政府支持的担保如何为缺乏抵押品的农民解锁融资。该模式已在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚得到复制，并得到了欧盟和开发银行的支持。</p>
<p>风险投资等私人融资来源也迅速增长。2024 年，尼日利亚和南非各自吸引了约 5 亿美元的风险投资。获得资金的非洲初创企业的增长速度是全球平均水平的六倍。微贷平台的贷款总额现已超过 85 亿美元。</p>
<p><strong>2. 土地登记</strong></p>
<p>超过 80% 的非洲可耕地没有登记，且由与正式法律整合不良的习惯性土地制度管理。薄弱的土地管理阻碍了投资，并限制了土地作为抵押品的使用。土地转让的成本是经合组织国家的两倍，所需时间也是两倍。这限制了获得信贷和实现出口所需的规模经济。</p>
<p>过去十年中引入的几项土地制度改革展示了正规化的好处。埃塞俄比亚向 2000 万小农发放了证书，促进了租赁活动。马拉维对 15000 公顷土地的重新分配使家庭收入提高了 40%。在莫桑比克、乌干达和利比里亚，政府合法承认习惯性机构以促进正式土地合同。卢旺达的全面土地测绘进一步提高了透明度和投资激励。</p>
<p><strong>3. 设计针对性的跨境政策</strong></p>
<p>区域和全球市场需要不同的出口成功策略。非洲内部贸易受益于地理接近和监管协调。东非共同体的贸易便利化措施使区域内乳制品出口在十年内增长了 65 倍。</p>
<p>然而，大多数非洲农业出口面向非非洲市场，需要基础设施和物流投资以确保速度和质量。塞内加尔在投资高速航运后，出口每年增长 20%；而埃塞俄比亚的花卉种植繁荣在很大程度上得益于其航空运输和冷链系统。</p>
<p>政策还必须针对特定作物。肯尼亚的针对性鳄梨出口战略使其成为非洲最大的出口国，年增长率达到两位数。马里的芒果出口政策建立了一个服务于欧洲市场的竞争性价值链。</p>
<p><strong>4. 将贸易政策作为升级工具</strong></p>
<p>非洲出口商主要销售原材料和低价值产品。尼日利亚作为主要的番茄生产国，几乎所有生产都以未加工形式出口——并且还进口番茄酱。肯尼亚的茶叶，作为该国的主要出口产品，品牌化的比例不足 5%。贸易政策可以通过鼓励国内加工来扭转这一不平衡。</p>
<p>东非共同体的差异化关税结构成功地通过降低中间产品的关税来鼓励增值，同时保护当地食品加工。各国政府也可以通过征税或限制未加工出口来激励升级。同时，有必要投资于加工能力。包括博茨瓦纳、乌干达和科特迪瓦在内的多个国家尝试实施原材料出口禁令，但由于缺乏必要的条件，成效有限。</p>
<p><strong>决定性的转变</strong></p>
<p>非洲的农业商业部门体现了该大陆在结构转型方面未被开发的潜力。非洲拥有丰富的土地、良好的气候和快速增长的国内需求，具备明显的比较优势。非洲也越来越能够应对过去阻碍农业商业部门发展的挑战。本文制定了一项政策议程，旨在通过修正限制竞争力的制度性缺陷，扭转非洲在全球农业贸易中不断下降的份额。</p>
<p>该议程基于增强融资获取、规范土地权利、实施针对性的跨境倡议以及利用贸易政策进行升级。向以农业为主导的发展议程的决定性政策转变至关重要。实施这一议程将使非洲国家能够改善其在国内和全球的经济地位。</p>
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LAND

<p>非洲的农业出口表现不佳，尽管该大陆拥有巨大的潜力。非洲在全球农业出口中的份额已从 1960 年的 8% 下降到 2020 年代初的 4%。建议的关键改革包括改善资本获取、土地登记、设计针对性的跨境政策，以及利用贸易政策来增强附加值。这些变化可以帮助非洲利用其农业资产实现经济增长，并更好地融入全球市场</p>

<p><strong>Lilac Nachum</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Lilac Nachum</strong></p>
</div><p>Africa is the world’s most endowed continent in agricultural potential, yet it remains a marginal player in global agribusiness. This paradox lies at the heart of Africa’s development challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非洲是全球农业潜力最丰富的大陆，但在全球农业商业中仍然处于边缘地位。这一悖论正是非洲发展挑战的核心所在。</p>
</div><p>Africa’s land accounts for nearly half of the global total. Most of it can be used for growing crops. It is also largely unprotected, and not forested, with low population density. The continent’s climate supports the growth of 80% of the foods consumed globally. Economic theory would predict that these conditions would lead to strong export performance. Yet Africa’s share of global agricultural exports is the lowest worldwide. It fell from about 8% in 1960 to 4% in the early 2020s, according to World Bank data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非洲的土地几乎占全球总量的一半。大部分土地可以用于种植作物。它的土地保护程度较低，森林覆盖率不高，人口密度也低。该大陆的气候支持 80% 的全球食品生长。经济理论预测，这些条件将导致强劲的出口表现。然而，根据世界银行的数据，非洲在全球农业出口中的份额是最低的，从 1960 年的约 8% 下降到 2020 年代初的 4%。</p>
</div><p>Policymakers have largely neglected agribusiness export performance, with a few exceptions, such as Kenya and Ghana. Agribusiness refers to the entire range of activities in producing, processing, distributing and marketing agricultural products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者在很大程度上忽视了农业商业的出口表现，只有少数例外，如肯尼亚和加纳。农业商业指的是生产、加工、分销和营销农业产品的整个活动范围。</p>
</div><p>Despite being the largest contributor to GDP and employment, agribusiness receives a disproportionately small share of government spending (on average 4%), far below its economic significance. There are variations across the continent, ranging from 8% and 7% respectively in Mali and South Sudan to less than 3% in Kenya and Ghana. Many governments have instead chosen manufacturing as the pathway to global integration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管农业商业是 GDP 和就业的最大贡献者，但其获得的政府支出比例却不成比例地小（平均为 4%），远低于其经济重要性。各国之间存在差异，马里和南苏丹分别为 8% 和 7%，而肯尼亚和加纳则低于 3%。许多政府选择制造业作为全球一体化的路径。</p>
</div><p>Based on insights from over three decades of research, consulting and teaching on global markets and development, I argue that agriculture could lead Africa’s integration into the world economy. Four reforms would be necessary: improving access to capital; documenting land; designing targeted cross-border policies; and strategically employing trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于三十多年的全球市场和发展研究、咨询和教学的见解，我认为农业可以引领非洲融入世界经济。需要进行四项改革：改善资本获取；土地登记；设计针对性的跨境政策；以及战略性地运用贸易政策。</p>
</div><p>In these ways, Africa could use its natural assets to secure broad-based economic growth and a stronger position in global value chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过这些方式，非洲可以利用其自然资产实现广泛的经济增长，并在全球价值链中占据更强的位置。</p>
</div><p><strong>Four reforms to support agribusiness</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>支持农业商业的四项改革</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>1. Improve access to capital</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. 改善资本获取</strong></p>
</div><p>Capital scarcity remains the most serious constraint on African agribusiness. Financial institutions are reluctant to lend due to high risk, long investment horizons, poor collateral, and profits being vulnerable to price shocks. The World Bank estimates that agriculture receives only about 1% of commercial lending despite contributing 25%-40% of GDP (up to 6% in Nigeria and Ethiopia). Lending rates are often double the economy-wide average, as UN Food and Agriculture Organization data show for Uganda.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本短缺仍然是非洲农业商业面临的最严重制约。金融机构因高风险、长期投资周期、抵押品不足以及利润易受价格冲击的影响而不愿放贷。世界银行估计，农业仅获得约 1% 的商业贷款，尽管其对 GDP 的贡献在 25%-40% 之间（在尼日利亚和埃塞俄比亚可达 6%）。贷款利率通常是经济整体平均水平的两倍，联合国粮农组织的数据表明乌干达的情况就是如此。</p>
</div><p>Governments can help close this financing gap. In 2024, Kenya allocated US$7.7 million for developing its tea production. Domestic investment can generate savings by cutting food import bills. Nigeria’s Tomato Jos project, for instance, reduced annual tomato paste imports by US$360 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府可以帮助弥补这一融资缺口。2024 年，肯尼亚为发展其茶叶生产分配了 770 万美元。国内投资可以通过减少食品进口支出来产生储蓄。例如，尼日利亚的 Tomato Jos 项目每年减少了 3.6 亿美元的番茄酱进口。</p>
</div><p>Governments should expand public lending while also enabling private sector participation through risk-sharing mechanisms. South Africa’s Khula Credit Guarantee Scheme illustrates how government-backed guarantees can unlock finance for collateral-poor farmers. This model has been reproduced in Kenya and Tanzania with EU and development bank support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府应扩大公共贷款，同时通过风险分担机制促进私营部门参与。南非的 Khula 信用担保计划展示了政府支持的担保如何为缺乏抵押品的农民解锁融资。该模式已在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚得到复制，并得到了欧盟和开发银行的支持。</p>
</div><p>Private finance sources such as venture capital have also grown rapidly. In 2024, Nigeria and South Africa each attracted about US$500 million in venture funding. Funded African startups have grown six times faster than the global average. Micro-lending platforms now exceed US$8.5bn in loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险投资等私人融资来源也迅速增长。2024 年，尼日利亚和南非各自吸引了约 5 亿美元的风险投资。获得资金的非洲初创企业的增长速度是全球平均水平的六倍。微贷平台的贷款总额现已超过 85 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Document the land</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 土地登记</strong></p>
</div><p>Over 80% of Africa’s arable land is undocumented and governed by customary tenure systems poorly integrated into formal law. Weak land administration deters investment and limits land’s use as collateral. Transfers cost twice as much and take twice as long as in OECD countries (the world’s 38 most developed countries). That constrains access to credit and economies of scale needed for exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超过 80% 的非洲可耕地没有登记，且由与正式法律整合不良的习惯性土地制度管理。薄弱的土地管理阻碍了投资，并限制了土地作为抵押品的使用。土地转让的成本是经合组织国家的两倍，所需时间也是两倍。这限制了获得信贷和实现出口所需的规模经济。</p>
</div><p>Several land tenure reforms introduced in the last decade demonstrate the benefits of formalisation. Ethiopia issued certificates to 20 million smallholders, boosting rental activity. Malawi’s redistribution of 15,000 hectares raised household incomes by 40%. In Mozambique, Uganda and Liberia, governments legally recognised customary institutions to facilitate formal land contracts. Rwanda’s comprehensive land mapping further improved transparency and investment incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去十年中引入的几项土地制度改革展示了正规化的好处。埃塞俄比亚向 2000 万小农发放了证书，促进了租赁活动。马拉维对 15000 公顷土地的重新分配使家庭收入提高了 40%。在莫桑比克、乌干达和利比里亚，政府合法承认习惯性机构以促进正式土地合同。卢旺达的全面土地测绘进一步提高了透明度和投资激励。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. Design focused cross-border policies</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 设计针对性的跨境政策</strong></p>
</div><p>Regional and global markets need different strategies for export success. Intra-African trade benefits from proximity and regulatory harmonisation. The East African Community’s trade facilitation measures increased intra-regional dairy exports 65-fold within a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>区域和全球市场需要不同的出口成功策略。非洲内部贸易受益于地理接近和监管协调。东非共同体的贸易便利化措施使区域内乳制品出口在十年内增长了 65 倍。</p>
</div><p>Most African agricultural exports, however, go to non-African markets, requiring infrastructure and logistics investments to ensure speed and quality. Senegal increased exports by 20% annually after investing in high-speed shipping, while Ethiopia’s flower growing boom owes much to its air transport and cold-chain systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多数非洲农业出口面向非非洲市场，需要基础设施和物流投资以确保速度和质量。塞内加尔在投资高速航运后，出口每年增长 20%；而埃塞俄比亚的花卉种植繁荣在很大程度上得益于其航空运输和冷链系统。</p>
</div><p>Policies must also be crop specific. Kenya’s targeted avocado export strategy transformed it into Africa’s largest exporter, with double-digit annual growth. Mali’s mango export policy built a competitive value chain serving European markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策还必须针对特定作物。肯尼亚的针对性鳄梨出口战略使其成为非洲最大的出口国，年增长率达到两位数。马里的芒果出口政策建立了一个服务于欧洲市场的竞争性价值链。</p>
</div><p><strong>4. Use trade policy as a tool for upgrading</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>4. 将贸易政策作为升级工具</strong></p>
</div><p>African exporters primarily sell raw, low-value materials. Nigeria, a top tomato producer, exports nearly all production unprocessed – and imports paste. Less than 5% of Kenyan tea, the nation’s leading export, is branded. Trade policy can reverse this imbalance by encouraging domestic processing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非洲出口商主要销售原材料和低价值产品。尼日利亚作为主要的番茄生产国，几乎所有生产都以未加工形式出口——并且还进口番茄酱。肯尼亚的茶叶，作为该国的主要出口产品，品牌化的比例不足 5%。贸易政策可以通过鼓励国内加工来扭转这一不平衡。</p>
</div><p>The East African Community’s differentiated tariff structure successfully encouraged value addition by lowering duties on intermediate goods while protecting local food processing. Governments could similarly tax or restrict unprocessed exports to motivate upgrading. At the same time, it’s necessary to invest in processing capacity. Several countries, including Botswana, Uganda and Côte d'Ivoire, have attempted raw export bans with limited success because the enabling conditions are missing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东非共同体的差异化关税结构成功地通过降低中间产品的关税来鼓励增值，同时保护当地食品加工。各国政府也可以通过征税或限制未加工出口来激励升级。同时，有必要投资于加工能力。包括博茨瓦纳、乌干达和科特迪瓦在内的多个国家尝试实施原材料出口禁令，但由于缺乏必要的条件，成效有限。</p>
</div><p><strong>A decisive shift</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>决定性的转变</strong></p>
</div><p>Africa’s agribusiness sector embodies the continent’s untapped potential for structural transformation. With abundant land, favourable climate and rapidly growing domestic demand, Africa possesses clear comparative advantages. Africa is also becoming more capable of addressing the challenges that have arrested the development of the agribusiness sector in the past. This article develops a policy agenda designed to reverse Africa’s declining share of world agricultural trade by amending institutional failures that have constrained competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非洲的农业商业部门体现了该大陆在结构转型方面未被开发的潜力。非洲拥有丰富的土地、良好的气候和快速增长的国内需求，具备明显的比较优势。非洲也越来越能够应对过去阻碍农业商业部门发展的挑战。本文制定了一项政策议程，旨在通过修正限制竞争力的制度性缺陷，扭转非洲在全球农业贸易中不断下降的份额。</p>
</div><p>This agenda is based on enhancing access to finance, formalising land rights, implementing targeted cross-border initiatives, and using trade policy for upgrading. A decisive policy shift towards an agriculture-led development agenda is essential. Implementing this agenda will enable African countries to improve their economic position at home and in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该议程基于增强融资获取、规范土地权利、实施针对性的跨境倡议以及利用贸易政策进行升级。向以农业为主导的发展议程的决定性政策转变至关重要。实施这一议程将使非洲国家能够改善其在国内和全球的经济地位。</p>
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非洲的农业出口表现不佳。改变这一现状的四种方法