<p>降息、财政担忧和特朗普的关税对美元施加压力</p>
<p>“卖出美元” 的交易仍在进行中，因为对美联储独立性的担忧持续存在</p>
<p>日元接近近期低点，但干预担忧依然存在</p>
<p>（更新欧洲交易情况）</p>
<p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Samuel Indyk</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 31 日（路透社）- 周三，美国美元小幅上涨，但仍在朝着自 2017 年以来最大的年度跌幅迈进，因为降息、财政担忧和特朗普总统下不稳定的贸易政策推动了 2025 年的货币市场。</p>
<p>这些主题在 2026 年可能仍将持续，暗示美元的糟糕表现可能会延续，并影响一些同行的表现，包括今年大幅上涨的欧元和英镑。</p>
<p>此外，特朗普政府下对美联储独立性的担忧仍然是焦点。特朗普表示，他计划在 1 月份宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，以取代任期将于 5 月结束的杰罗姆·鲍威尔，而鲍威尔一直受到总统的持续批评。</p>
<p>这种背景使得 “卖出美元” 的交易稳固，数据显示，自 4 月以来，投资者的净空头头寸保持不变。</p>
<p>欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.1%，报 1.1736 美元，而英镑（GBP=）在今年最后一个交易日最后报 1.3434 美元。两者都在朝着对美元的八年来最大年度涨幅迈进。</p>
<p>美元指数（=USD），衡量美元与其他六种主要货币的比率，报 98.35，继续增加周二的涨幅。该指数在 2025 年下跌了 9.4%，而欧元上涨了 13.4%，英镑上涨了 7.5%。</p>
<p>其他欧洲货币在 2025 年也上涨。瑞士法郎（CHF=）上涨 14%，而瑞典克朗上涨 20%。</p>
<p>TD 证券亚太区利率高级策略师 Prashant Newnaha 表示，2026 年看空美元的观点仍然受到广泛认可，预计 “卖空美元对欧元和澳元的表现将会良好”。</p>
<p>在上一个交易日，美元略微上涨，因为美联储 12 月会议的纪要显示政策制定者之间存在严重分歧，他们在本月早些时候降息。</p>
<p>巴克莱经济学家指出，一些政策制定者建议在 “某段时间内” 保持利率不变是合适的。</p>
<p>“虽然这当然不妨碍委员会在 1 月份降息，但这确实表明，除非劳动市场状况进一步恶化，否则再次降息的支持有限，” 他们在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>交易员预计 2026 年将有两次降息，尽管中央银行自己预计明年仅会再降一次。</p>
<p>2025 年美元的疲软帮助推动了许多主要货币以及新兴市场的强劲涨幅。</p>
<p>中国人民币（CNY=CFXS）在周二首次突破对美元的关键心理关口七，尽管中央银行的指导较弱。该货币在今年上涨了 4.4%，是自 2020 年以来的最大涨幅。</p>
<h3>脆弱的日元是个例外</h3>
<p>日本日元（JPY=）是少数未能利用 2025 年软美元的货币之一，尽管日本银行在年内两次加息，分别是在 1 月和本月初，但其整体保持平稳。</p>
<p>周三，日元对美元略微走弱，报 156.61，仍接近引发干预担忧和东京官员强烈口头干预的水平。</p>
<p>投资者对货币紧缩的缓慢和谨慎步伐感到失望，4 月份的显著多头日元头寸在年底前完全逆转。</p>
<p>随着 2026 年的展开，MUFG 策略师表示，美元 - 日元回调的条件应该会出现，并补充道：“美国收益率越低，日元恢复避险地位的机会就越大。”</p>
<p>风险敏感的澳元（AUD=）最后报 0.66965 美元，预计全年上涨超过 8%，是自 2020 年以来的最佳年度表现。新西兰元（NZD=）小幅下跌至 0.57875 美元，但预计全年上涨 3.4%，结束了四年的下跌趋势。</p>
<p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）预计将以 5.5% 的跌幅结束今年，这是自 2022 年以来的首次年度下降。最后报 88,583 美元，较 10 月份创下的 126,223 美元的历史高点下跌 30%。</p>
<p>G10 货币对美元的走势</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/45lxMXW?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="608" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/45lxMXW"/></p>

<p>美元正朝着自 2017 年以来最大的年度跌幅迈进，受到利率下调、财政担忧以及特朗普总统下的贸易政策的影响。欧元和英镑显著上涨，欧元对美元上涨了 13.4%，英镑上涨了 7.5%。尽管日本银行加息，日元依然保持稳定，而澳大利亚元则上涨超过 8%。比特币预计将以 5.5% 的跌幅结束今年，标志着自 2022 年以来的首次年度下跌</p>

<p>Rate cuts, fiscal worries and Trump’s tariffs weigh on dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息、财政担忧和特朗普的关税对美元施加压力</p>
</div><p>“Sell dollar” trade still in play as Fed independence concerns persist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“卖出美元” 的交易仍在进行中，因为对美联储独立性的担忧持续存在</p>
</div><p>Yen inches away from recent lows but intervention fears stay</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元接近近期低点，但干预担忧依然存在</p>
</div><p>(Updates for European trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新欧洲交易情况）</p>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee and Samuel Indyk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Samuel Indyk</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar inched higher on Wednesday but was still heading for its biggest annual drop since 2017 as interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and erratic U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump drove currency markets in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 31 日（路透社）- 周三，美国美元小幅上涨，但仍在朝着自 2017 年以来最大的年度跌幅迈进，因为降息、财政担忧和特朗普总统下不稳定的贸易政策推动了 2025 年的货币市场。</p>
</div><p>Those themes are likely to remain in 2026, suggesting the dollar’s dire performance could extend and underpin the behaviour of some of its peers, including the euro and sterling, which have made significant gains this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些主题在 2026 年可能仍将持续，暗示美元的糟糕表现可能会延续，并影响一些同行的表现，包括今年大幅上涨的欧元和英镑。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the dollar’s woes, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence under the Trump administration remain in focus. Trump said he plans to announce his pick for the next Fed chair sometime in January, replacing Jerome Powell whose term ends in May and who has faced constant criticism from the president.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普政府下对美联储独立性的担忧仍然是焦点。特朗普表示，他计划在 1 月份宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，以取代任期将于 5 月结束的杰罗姆·鲍威尔，而鲍威尔一直受到总统的持续批评。</p>
</div><p>That backdrop has kept the “sell-dollar” trade firmly in place with positioning remaining net-short since April, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种背景使得 “卖出美元” 的交易稳固，数据显示，自 4 月以来，投资者的净空头头寸保持不变。</p>
</div><p>The euro (EUR=) was down 0.1% at $1.1736 and the pound (GBP=) last bought $1.3434 on the last trading day of the year. Both are poised for their biggest yearly gains in eight years against the U.S. currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.1%，报 1.1736 美元，而英镑（GBP=）在今年最后一个交易日最后报 1.3434 美元。两者都在朝着对美元的八年来最大年度涨幅迈进。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the U.S. currency versus six other major units, was at 98.35, adding to its Tuesday gains. The index has declined 9.4% in 2025 while the euro surged 13.4% and the pound gained 7.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数（=USD），衡量美元与其他六种主要货币的比率，报 98.35，继续增加周二的涨幅。该指数在 2025 年下跌了 9.4%，而欧元上涨了 13.4%，英镑上涨了 7.5%。</p>
</div><p>Other European currencies have also rallied in 2025. Switzerland’s franc (CHF=) is up 14% while Sweden’s crown is up 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他欧洲货币在 2025 年也上涨。瑞士法郎（CHF=）上涨 14%，而瑞典克朗上涨 20%。</p>
</div><p>Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, said the bearish dollar thesis for 2026 remains a well-subscribed view with “short dollars vs EUR and the AUD expected to perform”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TD 证券亚太区利率高级策略师 Prashant Newnaha 表示，2026 年看空美元的观点仍然受到广泛认可，预计 “卖空美元对欧元和澳元的表现将会良好”。</p>
</div><p>The greenback got a bit of a boost in the previous session after minutes of the Fed’s December meeting showed deep divisions among policymakers as they cut rates earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一个交易日，美元略微上涨，因为美联储 12 月会议的纪要显示政策制定者之间存在严重分歧，他们在本月早些时候降息。</p>
</div><p>Barclays economists noted that some policymakers suggested it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for “some time”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴克莱经济学家指出，一些政策制定者建议在 “某段时间内” 保持利率不变是合适的。</p>
</div><p>“While this certainly does not prevent the committee from cutting rates in January, it does suggest limited support for cutting again, absent further deterioration in labor market conditions,” they said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然这当然不妨碍委员会在 1 月份降息，但这确实表明，除非劳动市场状况进一步恶化，否则再次降息的支持有限，” 他们在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Traders are pricing in two cuts for 2026, although the central bank itself has projected just one more next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员预计 2026 年将有两次降息，尽管中央银行自己预计明年仅会再降一次。</p>
</div><p>The dollar’s weakness in 2025 has helped push many of the major currencies as well as emerging markets to strong gains for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年美元的疲软帮助推动了许多主要货币以及新兴市场的强劲涨幅。</p>
</div><p>China’s yuan (CNY=CFXS) broke through the key psychological level of seven to the dollar on Tuesday for the first time in 2-1⁄2 years, defying weaker central bank guidance. The currency rose 4.4% in the year, its sharpest gain since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国人民币（CNY=CFXS）在周二首次突破对美元的关键心理关口七，尽管中央银行的指导较弱。该货币在今年上涨了 4.4%，是自 2020 年以来的最大涨幅。</p>
</div><h3>FRAGILE YEN IS THE OUTLIER</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>脆弱的日元是个例外</h3>
</div><p>The Japanese yen (JPY=) is one of the few currencies that failed to take advantage of the soft dollar in 2025, remaining broadly flat even as the Bank of Japan raised rates twice during the year, once in January and then earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日元（JPY=）是少数未能利用 2025 年软美元的货币之一，尽管日本银行在年内两次加息，分别是在 1 月和本月初，但其整体保持平稳。</p>
</div><p>On Wednesday, the yen was a touch weaker at 156.61 per U.S. dollar, remaining close to levels that brought intervention worries and severe jawboning from officials in Tokyo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，日元对美元略微走弱，报 156.61，仍接近引发干预担忧和东京官员强烈口头干预的水平。</p>
</div><p>Investors have been disappointed with the slow and cautious pace of monetary tightening, with the significant long yen position in April completely reversing by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对货币紧缩的缓慢和谨慎步伐感到失望，4 月份的显著多头日元头寸在年底前完全逆转。</p>
</div><p>As 2026 unfolds, said MUFG strategists, the conditions for a retracement back lower in dollar-yen should materialise, adding: “The lower U.S. yields go, the greater the chance that the yen could see its safe-haven status revived.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 2026 年的展开，MUFG 策略师表示，美元 - 日元回调的条件应该会出现，并补充道：“美国收益率越低，日元恢复避险地位的机会就越大。”</p>
</div><p>The risk-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD=) last fetched $0.66965, poised for a more than 8% surge over the year, its best annual performance since 2020. The New Zealand dollar (NZD=) eased slightly to $0.57875 but was set for a 3.4% rise in the year, snapping a four-year losing streak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险敏感的澳元（AUD=）最后报 0.66965 美元，预计全年上涨超过 8%，是自 2020 年以来的最佳年度表现。新西兰元（NZD=）小幅下跌至 0.57875 美元，但预计全年上涨 3.4%，结束了四年的下跌趋势。</p>
</div><p>In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC=) was set to end the year lower by 5.5%, its first annual decrease since 2022. It was last at $88,583, down 30% from a record high of $126,223 seen in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）预计将以 5.5% 的跌幅结束今年，这是自 2022 年以来的首次年度下降。最后报 88,583 美元，较 10 月份创下的 126,223 美元的历史高点下跌 30%。</p>
</div><p>G10 currency moves against the US dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10 货币对美元的走势</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/45lxMXW" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/45lxMXW"/></p>

外汇市场中，美元表现低迷，日元在 2025 年保持平静，而欧元则表现出色