<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>周三黄金价格小幅下滑，但仍有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p>
<p>尽管在 2025 年最后一个交易日白银价格大幅回落，但其价格在 2025 年翻了一番以上。</p>
<p>与此同时，原油的情况则截然不同。油价正面临自 2020 年以来最大的年度下跌。</p>
<p>在基本金属中，铜价周三也有所回落，但有望实现自 2009 年以来最大的年度涨幅。2025 年的涨势使该金属创下了一系列历史新高。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，伦敦金属交易所的三个月铜合约价格为每吨 12,473.15 美元，下跌 1.3%。</p>
<h2>贵金属在 2025 年的辉煌表现</h2>
<p>尽管周三有所下滑，贵金属仍有望迎来一个非凡的涨幅年。</p>
<p>白银和铂金价格翻了一番，而黄金的历史高位使其在四十多年中实现了最强劲的年度表现。</p>
<p>今年黄金价格出现了异常的飙升，约上涨了 65%——这是自 1979 年以来最陡峭的年度增幅。</p>
<p>这一显著的涨势主要归因于几个因素：美国利率的降低和预期的进一步货币宽松、地缘政治紧张局势的上升、中央银行的大量购买以及对交易所交易基金（ETFs）的强劲流入。</p>
<p>在 CME 决定提高贵金属期货的保证金后，价格从近期高点回落，交易者开始获利了结。</p>
<p>“包括黄金在内的无利息贵金属价格下滑，因为周二发布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12 月会议纪要显示委员会内部存在严重分歧，” FXstreet 的编辑 Akhtar Faruqui 在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>在今年进行三次降息后，一些联邦储备委员会（Fed）官员建议维持当前利率水平一段时间。</p>
<p>相反，其他政策制定者认为，如果通胀继续下降，可能需要进一步降息。</p>
<p>与此同时，白银年初至今的涨幅超过 145%，显著超过黄金，并有望迎来迄今为止最成功的一年。</p>
<p>这一强劲的涨势受到多个因素的推动，包括供应短缺、历史低库存、日益增长的工业和投资需求，以及其最近被美国列为关键矿物的分类。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 的白银合约价格为每盎司 71.487 美元，下跌 8.3%，而黄金价格为每盎司 4,324 美元，下跌 1.4%。</p>
<h2>油价面临年度下跌</h2>
<p>在对供应中断和过剩担忧的背景下，油价在周三上涨，但预计在 2025 年将面临超过 15% 的年度下跌。</p>
<p>这一下滑是由于地缘政治冲突、较高的关税、OPEC+ 的产量动态以及对包括俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉在内的主要生产国实施的制裁主导的一年。</p>
<p>布伦特原油期货将面临连续第三年的亏损——这是其有记录以来最长的亏损周期——年百分比降幅接近 18%，是自 2020 年以来的最大跌幅。</p>
<p>同样，美国西德克萨斯中质原油预计将面临 19% 的年度下跌。</p>
<p>BNP Paribas 的商品分析师 Jason Ying 预测，布伦特原油在 2026 年第一季度将最初跌至每桶 55 美元。</p>
<p>然而，他预计会出现复苏，价格将在剩余时间内稳定在每桶 60 美元。</p>
<p>这一预测基于供应增长将正常化而需求保持不变的预期。</p>
<p>“我们对短期内的看法比市场更悲观的原因是，我们认为美国页岩生产商能够在高位进行对冲，” 他在路透社的报道中被引用。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>因此，页岩生产商的供应将更加稳定，并且对价格波动不敏感。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在撰写本文时，西德克萨斯中质原油的价格为每桶 58.25 美元，上涨 0.5%，而布伦特原油也上涨 0.5%，为每桶 61.61 美元。</p>
<p>文章《黄金、白银有望创下纪录涨幅；油价面临自 2020 年以来最大年度下跌》最初发表于 Invezz。</p>

银禧科技

<p>黄金和白银正朝着创纪录的年度涨幅迈进，预计 2025 年黄金上涨约 65%，白银上涨超过 145%。尽管最近有所回落，黄金仍有望实现自 1979 年以来的最佳表现，这主要受到美国降息和中央银行购入的推动。相比之下，原油正面临自 2020 年以来最大的年度下跌，布伦特原油价格下跌近 18%。分析师预测，2026 年油价将恢复，初期下跌后稳定在每桶约 60 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices slipped on Wednesday, but were on track for steepest annual gains since 1979.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三黄金价格小幅下滑，但仍有望实现自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Silver prices more than doubled in 2025 even as the white metal retreated sharply on the last trading of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在 2025 年最后一个交易日白银价格大幅回落，但其价格在 2025 年翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the picture is quite different for crude oil. Oil prices were headed for its biggest annual decline since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，原油的情况则截然不同。油价正面临自 2020 年以来最大的年度下跌。</p>
</div><p>Among base metals, copper prices also retreated on Wednesday, but were on course for its biggest annual gain since 2009. The rally in 2025 saw the metal hit a series of record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在基本金属中，铜价周三也有所回落，但有望实现自 2009 年以来最大的年度涨幅。2025 年的涨势使该金属创下了一系列历史新高。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $12,473.15 per ton, down 1.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，伦敦金属交易所的三个月铜合约价格为每吨 12,473.15 美元，下跌 1.3%。</p>
</div><h2>Precious metals’ stellar 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贵金属在 2025 年的辉煌表现</h2>
</div><p>Despite a Wednesday slip, precious metals are set for a phenomenal year of gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管周三有所下滑，贵金属仍有望迎来一个非凡的涨幅年。</p>
</div><p>Silver and platinum prices have more than doubled, and gold’s record-high run has secured its strongest annual performance in over four decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银和铂金价格翻了一番，而黄金的历史高位使其在四十多年中实现了最强劲的年度表现。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices have seen an exceptional surge this year, climbing by approximately 65%—the sharpest annual increase since 1979.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年黄金价格出现了异常的飙升，约上涨了 65%——这是自 1979 年以来最陡峭的年度增幅。</p>
</div><p>This significant rally is primarily attributed to several factors: US interest rate cuts and anticipated further monetary easing, rising geopolitical tensions, substantial purchases by central banks, and strong inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一显著的涨势主要归因于几个因素：美国利率的降低和预期的进一步货币宽松、地缘政治紧张局势的上升、中央银行的大量购买以及对交易所交易基金（ETFs）的强劲流入。</p>
</div><p>Following CME’s decision to increase margins on precious metal futures, prices have decreased from their recent highs as traders engaged in profit-taking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 CME 决定提高贵金属期货的保证金后，价格从近期高点回落，交易者开始获利了结。</p>
</div><p>“The non-interest-bearing precious metals, including gold lose ground as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes, released on Tuesday, indicated a deeply divided committee,” Akhtar Faruqui, editor at FXstreet, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“包括黄金在内的无利息贵金属价格下滑，因为周二发布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12 月会议纪要显示委员会内部存在严重分歧，” FXstreet 的编辑 Akhtar Faruqui 在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>After three rate reductions this year, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggested maintaining the current rate level for a period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年进行三次降息后，一些联邦储备委员会（Fed）官员建议维持当前利率水平一段时间。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, other policymakers believed that additional rate cuts would likely be warranted if inflation continued its downward trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，其他政策制定者认为，如果通胀继续下降，可能需要进一步降息。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, with a staggering year-to-date gain of over 145%, silver has significantly outperformed gold and is on track for its most successful year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，白银年初至今的涨幅超过 145%，显著超过黄金，并有望迎来迄今为止最成功的一年。</p>
</div><p>This robust rally is fueled by several factors, including supply shortages, historically low inventories, burgeoning industrial and investor demand, and its recent classification as a critical mineral in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一强劲的涨势受到多个因素的推动，包括供应短缺、历史低库存、日益增长的工业和投资需求，以及其最近被美国列为关键矿物的分类。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the silver contract on COMEX was at $71.487 per ounce, down 8.3%, while gold was at $4,324 per ounce, down 1.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 的白银合约价格为每盎司 71.487 美元，下跌 8.3%，而黄金价格为每盎司 4,324 美元，下跌 1.4%。</p>
</div><h2>Oil set for annual drop</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价面临年度下跌</h2>
</div><p>Against the backdrop of concerns over supply disruptions and oversupply fears, oil prices rose on Wednesday, but are on track for an annual decline of over 15% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在对供应中断和过剩担忧的背景下，油价在周三上涨，但预计在 2025 年将面临超过 15% 的年度下跌。</p>
</div><p>This slump was fueled by a year dominated by geopolitical conflicts, elevated tariffs, OPEC+ output dynamics, and sanctions imposed on major producers, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下滑是由于地缘政治冲突、较高的关税、OPEC+ 的产量动态以及对包括俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉在内的主要生产国实施的制裁主导的一年。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude futures are set for a third consecutive year of losses—their longest losing streak on record—with a substantial annual percentage decline of nearly 18%, the most significant drop since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货将面临连续第三年的亏损——这是其有记录以来最长的亏损周期——年百分比降幅接近 18%，是自 2020 年以来的最大跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude is on track for an annual decline of 19%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，美国西德克萨斯中质原油预计将面临 19% 的年度下跌。</p>
</div><p>Jason Ying, a commodities analyst at BNP Paribas, forecasts that Brent crude will initially drop to $55 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNP Paribas 的商品分析师 Jason Ying 预测，布伦特原油在 2026 年第一季度将最初跌至每桶 55 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, he expects a recovery, with the price stabilising at $60 a barrel for the remainder of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他预计会出现复苏，价格将在剩余时间内稳定在每桶 60 美元。</p>
</div><p>This prediction is based on the expectation that supply growth will normalise while demand remains unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一预测基于供应增长将正常化而需求保持不变的预期。</p>
</div><p>“The reason why we’re more bearish than the market in the near term is that we think that US shale producers were able to hedge at high levels,” he was quoted in a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们对短期内的看法比市场更悲观的原因是，我们认为美国页岩生产商能够在高位进行对冲，” 他在路透社的报道中被引用。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>So the supply from shale producers will be more consistent and insensitive to price movements.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>因此，页岩生产商的供应将更加稳定，并且对价格波动不敏感。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $58.25 per barrel, up 0.5%, while Brent was also 0.5% at $61.61 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，西德克萨斯中质原油的价格为每桶 58.25 美元，上涨 0.5%，而布伦特原油也上涨 0.5%，为每桶 61.61 美元。</p>
</div><p>The post Gold, silver set to register record gains; oil faces biggest annual drop since 2020 appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《黄金、白银有望创下纪录涨幅；油价面临自 2020 年以来最大年度下跌》最初发表于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

黄金和白银预计将创下历史性的涨幅；石油则面临自 2020 年以来最大的年度跌幅