<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="684" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/>
图片来源：Unsplash
油价期货在美国早盘交易中上涨，但预计全年将大幅下跌。
据道琼斯报道，OPEC+ 减产的解除以及非 OPEC 产量的增加引发了 2025 年的过剩担忧，而美国制裁和中东、俄罗斯 - 乌克兰以及最近的委内瑞拉地缘政治紧张局势导致价格频繁波动。
<blockquote>
“随着浮动库存逐渐进入陆上设施，原油供应过剩将比秋季大部分时间更具透明度，” Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份报告中表示。
</blockquote>
但在地缘政治混乱之外，国内供应和生产仍然是关键...
能源部
<ul>
<li>原油 -193.4 万桶</li>
<li>库欣 +54.3 万桶</li>
<li>汽油 +584.5 万桶</li>
<li>柴油 +497.7 万桶</li>
</ul>
原油库存在过去四周中第三周下降，而 产品库存则连续第八周增加...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="596" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg"/>
截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日的一周，美国原油总库存（不包括战略石油储备）降至 422,888 千桶，为 2025 年 10 月 31 日以来的最低水平... 与原油价格脱钩...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="596" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ"/>
美国原油产量仍接近历史高位，而钻井数量全年持续下降...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="592" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ"/>
油价正面临自 2020 年疫情开始以来最严重的年度损失， 这一年受到地缘政治风险和全球供应持续增加的主导。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="588" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw"/>
OPEC+ 在今年早些时候通过逆转长期以来捍卫价格的政策并提高产量，搅动了市场， 试图重新夺回市场份额，因为包括巴西和圭亚那在内的国家增加了供应，而美国的产量达到了历史高位。预计该生产集团将在本周末的谈判中暂停增产。
预计惩罚性的过剩将在 2026 年对价格施加压力 - 全球石油市场今年供应过剩。
<blockquote>
“油市预计将在 2026 年继续过剩，美国、巴西、圭亚那和阿根廷的强劲非 OPEC 产量将超过不均衡的全球需求，” Kotak Securities Ltd.的分析师 Kaynat Chainwala 表示。她补充说，价格应保持在 50 到 70 美元之间，委内瑞拉或俄罗斯供应的风险仍将支持价格。
</blockquote>
国际能源署和美国政府均预计，2025 年生产将超过消费超过 200 万桶/天，而这一过剩在未来一年将进一步恶化。
<hr/>
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油价期货预计将迎来自新冠疫情以来最糟糕的年度损失，这主要是由于美国原油产量创纪录和 OPEC+ 的减产。地缘政治紧张局势和全球供应增加导致了过剩的担忧，分析师预测这种过剩将持续到 2026 年。美国原油库存降至自 2025 年 10 月以来的最低水平，尽管钻井数量下降，产量仍然保持在高位。预计价格将在 50 美元到 70 美元之间波动，受地缘政治风险和非 OPEC 国家的生产水平影响

<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/>
Image Source: Unsplash
<div class="lb-trans">图片来源：Unsplash
</div>Oil futures are gaining in early U.S. trade, but on track to end the year substantially lower.
<div class="lb-trans">油价期货在美国早盘交易中上涨，但预计全年将大幅下跌。
</div>As Dow Jones reports, the unwinding of OPEC+ output cuts, along with higher non-OPEC production, fueled oversupply concerns in 2025, while U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine and more recently Venezuela led to frequent price spikes.
<div class="lb-trans">据道琼斯报道，OPEC+ 减产的解除以及非 OPEC 产量的增加引发了 2025 年的过剩担忧，而美国制裁和中东、俄罗斯 - 乌克兰以及最近的委内瑞拉地缘政治紧张局势导致价格频繁波动。
</div><blockquote>
&#34;The crude supply surplus will acquire greater transparency than was the case through most of the fall period as floating storage gradually finds its way into onshore facilities,&#34; Ritterbusch and Associates says in a note.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
“随着浮动库存逐渐进入陆上设施，原油供应过剩将比秋季大部分时间更具透明度，” Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份报告中表示。
</blockquote>
</div>But away from the geopolitical chaos, domestic supply and production remain key...
<div class="lb-trans">但在地缘政治混乱之外，国内供应和生产仍然是关键...
</div>DOE
<div class="lb-trans">能源部
</div><ul>
<li>Crude -1.934mm</li>
<li>Cushing +543k</li>
<li>Gasoline +5.845mm</li>
<li>Distillates +4.977mm</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>原油 -193.4 万桶</li>
<li>库欣 +54.3 万桶</li>
<li>汽油 +584.5 万桶</li>
<li>柴油 +497.7 万桶</li>
</ul>
</div>Crude stocks fell for the 3rd week in the last 4 while product inventories saw their 8th straight weekly build in a row...
<div class="lb-trans">原油库存在过去四周中第三周下降，而 产品库存则连续第八周增加...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg?itok=dkMa1cEV"/>
The US Crude Oil Total Inventory (excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell to 422,888 thousand barrels in the week ending Dec. 26, 2025, lowest since Oct. 31, 2025... decoupling from the crude price...
<div class="lb-trans">截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日的一周，美国原油总库存（不包括战略石油储备）降至 422,888 千桶，为 2025 年 10 月 31 日以来的最低水平... 与原油价格脱钩...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg?itok=E5z4hbGI"/>
US crude production remains near record highs as the rig count has continued to slide all year...
<div class="lb-trans">美国原油产量仍接近历史高位，而钻井数量全年持续下降...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg?itok=GhUgv-7m"/>
Oil headed for its steepest annual loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020, in a year that has been dominated by geopolitical risks and steadily rising supplies across the globe.
<div class="lb-trans">油价正面临自 2020 年疫情开始以来最严重的年度损失， 这一年受到地缘政治风险和全球供应持续增加的主导。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg?itok=Vmon7KfW"/>
OPEC+ roiled markets earlier this year by reversing its longstanding policy of defending prices and raised output, seeking to reclaim market share as countries including Brazil and Guyana boosted supply and the US pumped at record levels. The producer group is expected to hold off on output hikes during talks this weekend.
<div class="lb-trans">OPEC+ 在今年早些时候通过逆转长期以来捍卫价格的政策并提高产量，搅动了市场， 试图重新夺回市场份额，因为包括巴西和圭亚那在内的国家增加了供应，而美国的产量达到了历史高位。预计该生产集团将在本周末的谈判中暂停增产。
</div>A punishing surplus is expected to weigh on prices in 2026 - Global oil markets have been been oversupplied this year.
<div class="lb-trans">预计惩罚性的过剩将在 2026 年对价格施加压力 - 全球石油市场今年供应过剩。
</div><blockquote>
“The oil market is set to remain oversupplied into 2026, with strong non-OPEC production from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina outpacing uneven global demand,” said Kaynat Chainwala, an analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. Prices should stay range-bound between $50 and $70, with risks over Venezuelan or Russian supply remaining supportive, she added.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
“油市预计将在 2026 年继续过剩，美国、巴西、圭亚那和阿根廷的强劲非 OPEC 产量将超过不均衡的全球需求，” Kotak Securities Ltd.的分析师 Kaynat Chainwala 表示。她补充说，价格应保持在 50 到 70 美元之间，委内瑞拉或俄罗斯供应的风险仍将支持价格。
</blockquote>
</div>Both the International Energy Agency and the US government see production exceeding consumption by just over 2 million barrels a day in 2025 and that surplus worsening in the coming year.
<div class="lb-trans">国际能源署和美国政府均预计，2025 年生产将超过消费超过 200 万桶/天，而这一过剩在未来一年将进一步恶化。
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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<div class="lb-trans">星巴克将在纽约市关闭约 400 家门店，其中 40 多家在纽约市。
</div>FOMC Minutes Confirm 'Most' Fed Officials Expect More Rate-Cuts, Divisions Remain
<div class="lb-trans">FOMC 纪要确认 “多数” 美联储官员预计将进一步降息，内部存在分歧。
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<div class="lb-trans">Meta 与中国创立的 Manus AI 达成 20 亿美元交易，&#34;联手合作&#34;。
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由于美国原油产量创下历史新高，石油正面临自 COVID 以来最严重的年度损失