<p>比特币（[BTC]）的价格表现持续承压，目前较其历史最高点 126,000 美元下跌约 32%，过去一年下跌 5.6%。</p>
<p>10 月 10 日的卖压加剧，并在 2025 年第四季度持续存在，价格在下行趋势中逐渐走低，最终在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之间的区间内稳定下来。</p>
<p>现在的关键问题是，这一下行趋势是否会延续到 2026 年第一季度。</p>
<p>尽管整体市场的乐观情绪仍然有限，但一些链上和机构信号表明，市场情绪可能接近转折点。AMBCrypto 分析了影响这一前景的因素。</p>
<h2>长期投资者暂停分配</h2>
<p>市场前景开始显示出早期稳定的迹象。</p>
<p>长期比特币持有者——定义为持有超过六个月未花费交易输出（UTXO）的地址——开始改变行为。</p>
<p>这一群体自 7 月以来一直在向市场分配比特币，现在似乎已暂停出售。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的数据表明，长期持有者在一天内从出售 674,000 个比特币（价值 598 亿美元）转为购买 10,700 个比特币。</p>
<p>虽然这尚未确认持续的积累，但标志着定位的显著变化，并表明长期投资者可能正在减少卖方压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>短期和零售行为支持这一观点。跟踪比特币在集中交易所的流入和流出情况的交易所净流量数据显示，12 月的流出量超过了流入量。</p>
<p>到目前为止，已有超过 40 亿美元被投入到比特币购买中，而在 12 月 29 日那周，有价值 2.94 亿美元的比特币从交易所撤出。</p>
<p>这些动向共同指向一个潜在的稳定阶段，即便比特币仍在一个明确的区间内交易。</p>
<h2>ETF 流动信号机构情绪转变</h2>
<p>美国投资者的活动仍然是更广泛市场方向的关键晴雨表。</p>
<p>根据 CoinGlass 的数据，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETFs）在 12 月 17 日至 29 日期间记录了持续的流出，机构投资者从市场撤回了 11.2 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，当价值 3.35 亿美元的比特币流入 ETF 时，情绪发生了转变，这标志着自 10 月 21 日以来的第三大单日流入。这一逆转表明，机构卖压可能正在减轻。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>在零售层面，情绪尚未跟随相同的轨迹。</p>
<p>Coinbase 溢价指数跟踪美国交易所 Coinbase 与全球交易所 Binance 之间的比特币价格差异，仍然为负值。</p>
<p>截至发稿时，该指数为-0.09，表明美国零售参与者的需求较弱，尽管机构流入有所改善，仍然保持谨慎。</p>
<h2>数字资产财库公司提供长期支持</h2>
<p>数字资产财库公司可能在平衡市场情绪方面发挥越来越重要的作用。</p>
<p>根据 CoinGecko 的数据，自其出现以来，这一群体已累计比特币持有量达到 1524 亿美元，约为 117.5 万个比特币。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，这些实体在比特币价格下跌时仍继续增持。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>Strategy 持有的企业比特币财库价值 597 亿美元，在 2025 年仅收购了其总比特币持有量的三分之一，支出约 220 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果这种增持速度在市场条件改善的情况下持续下去，比特币可能会迎来更强的复苏阶段。</p>
<p>目前，短期内的看跌压力仍主导市场情绪。恐惧与贪婪指数保持在 32，反映出市场环境的恐惧。</p>
<p>情绪的更广泛转变，加上对支持性宏观和监管条件的共识——例如对补充杠杆率的增强——可能改善市场流动性，并为 2026 年第一季度的持续上涨提供基础。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>随着新年的临近，比特币的看涨动态逐渐成形，长期持有者减缓了分配。</em></li>
<li><em>数字资产财库公司正在成为潜在的稳定力量，监管透明度和政策一致性为长期支持提供了保障。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币的价格承压，较峰值下跌 32%，在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之间波动。长期持有者已暂停出售，转向购买，显示出潜在的稳定迹象。机构情绪复杂，近期的 ETF 资金流入表明卖压有所缓解。然而，零售需求依然疲软。数字资产财 treasury 公司正在积累比特币，为长期提供支持。市场情绪仍然看跌，但监管透明度可能在 2026 年第一季度促进复苏</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] price performance has remained under pressure, with the asset down roughly 32% from its all-time high of $126,000 and lower by 5.6% over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（[BTC]）的价格表现持续承压，目前较其历史最高点 126,000 美元下跌约 32%，过去一年下跌 5.6%。</p>
</div><p>Selling pressure intensified on the 10th of October and persisted throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, as prices trended lower before settling into a range-bound zone between $85,000 and $90,000 on the chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 月 10 日的卖压加剧，并在 2025 年第四季度持续存在，价格在下行趋势中逐渐走低，最终在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之间的区间内稳定下来。</p>
</div><p>The key question now is whether this downtrend will extend into Q1 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的关键问题是，这一下行趋势是否会延续到 2026 年第一季度。</p>
</div><p>While broader market optimism remains limited, several on-chain and institutional signals suggest that sentiment may be nearing a turning point. AMBCrypto examines the factors shaping this outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管整体市场的乐观情绪仍然有限，但一些链上和机构信号表明，市场情绪可能接近转折点。AMBCrypto 分析了影响这一前景的因素。</p>
</div><h2>Long-term investors pause distribution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期投资者暂停分配</h2>
</div><p>The outlook has started to show early signs of stabilization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场前景开始显示出早期稳定的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Long-term Bitcoin holders—defined as addresses with unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than six months—have begun to shift behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期比特币持有者——定义为持有超过六个月未花费交易输出（UTXO）的地址——开始改变行为。</p>
</div><p>This cohort, which had been distributing Bitcoin to the market since July, appears to have paused selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一群体自 7 月以来一直在向市场分配比特币，现在似乎已暂停出售。</p>
</div><p>Data from CryptoQuant showed that long-term holders moved from selling 674,000 BTC worth $59.8 billion to purchasing 10,700 BTC within a single day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的数据表明，长期持有者在一天内从出售 674,000 个比特币（价值 598 亿美元）转为购买 10,700 个比特币。</p>
</div><p>While this does not yet confirm sustained accumulation, it marks a notable change in positioning and suggests that long-term investors may now be reducing sell-side pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这尚未确认持续的积累，但标志着定位的显著变化，并表明长期投资者可能正在减少卖方压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Short-term and retail behavior supports this view. Exchange Netflow data, which tracks Bitcoin inflows and outflows from centralized exchanges, shows that outflows exceeded inflows throughout December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期和零售行为支持这一观点。跟踪比特币在集中交易所的流入和流出情况的交易所净流量数据显示，12 月的流出量超过了流入量。</p>
</div><p>So far, more than $4 billion has been deployed into Bitcoin purchases, with $294 million worth of BTC withdrawn from exchanges during the week starting from the 29th of December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，已有超过 40 亿美元被投入到比特币购买中，而在 12 月 29 日那周，有价值 2.94 亿美元的比特币从交易所撤出。</p>
</div><p>Together, these movements point to a potential stabilization phase, even as Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些动向共同指向一个潜在的稳定阶段，即便比特币仍在一个明确的区间内交易。</p>
</div><h2>ETF flows signal shifting institutional sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ETF 流动信号机构情绪转变</h2>
</div><p>Activity from U.S.-based investors remains a key barometer of broader market direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国投资者的活动仍然是更广泛市场方向的关键晴雨表。</p>
</div><p>According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded consistent outflows between the 17th to the 29th of December, with institutional investors pulling $1.12 billion from the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CoinGlass 的数据，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETFs）在 12 月 17 日至 29 日期间记录了持续的流出，机构投资者从市场撤回了 11.2 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, sentiment shifted when $335 million worth of Bitcoin flowed back into ETFs, marking the third-largest daily inflow since the 21st of October. This reversal suggests that institutional selling pressure may be easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，当价值 3.35 亿美元的比特币流入 ETF 时，情绪发生了转变，这标志着自 10 月 21 日以来的第三大单日流入。这一逆转表明，机构卖压可能正在减轻。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>At the retail level, sentiment has not yet followed the same trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售层面，情绪尚未跟随相同的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase and global exchange Binance, remains negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 溢价指数跟踪美国交易所 Coinbase 与全球交易所 Binance 之间的比特币价格差异，仍然为负值。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the index was -0.09, indicating weaker demand from U.S. retail participants and continued caution despite improving institutional flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至发稿时，该指数为-0.09，表明美国零售参与者的需求较弱，尽管机构流入有所改善，仍然保持谨慎。</p>
</div><h2>Digital asset treasury firms provide longer-term support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数字资产财库公司提供长期支持</h2>
</div><p>Digital asset treasury firms could play an increasingly important role in balancing market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字资产财库公司可能在平衡市场情绪方面发挥越来越重要的作用。</p>
</div><p>Since their emergence, this group has accumulated Bitcoin holdings valued at $152.4 billion, representing approximately 1.175 million BTC, according to CoinGecko.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CoinGecko 的数据，自其出现以来，这一群体已累计比特币持有量达到 1524 亿美元，约为 117.5 万个比特币。</p>
</div><p>Notably, these entities continued to accumulate even as Bitcoin prices declined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，这些实体在比特币价格下跌时仍继续增持。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Strategy, which holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury valued at $59.7 billion, acquired more than one-third of its total BTC holdings in 2025 alone, spending roughly $22 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 持有的企业比特币财库价值 597 亿美元，在 2025 年仅收购了其总比特币持有量的三分之一，支出约 220 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If this pace of accumulation continues alongside improving market conditions, Bitcoin could see a stronger recovery phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种增持速度在市场条件改善的情况下持续下去，比特币可能会迎来更强的复苏阶段。</p>
</div><p>For now, bearish pressure still dominates near-term sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 32, reflecting a fearful market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，短期内的看跌压力仍主导市场情绪。恐惧与贪婪指数保持在 32，反映出市场环境的恐惧。</p>
</div><p>A broader shift in sentiment, combined with alignment around supportive macro and regulatory conditions—such as enhancements to the supplementary leverage ratio—could improve market liquidity and provide the foundation for a sustained upside move in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情绪的更广泛转变，加上对支持性宏观和监管条件的共识——例如对补充杠杆率的增强——可能改善市场流动性，并为 2026 年第一季度的持续上涨提供基础。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s bullish dynamics are gradually taking shape as the new year approaches, with long-term holders slowing distribution.</em></li>
<li><em>Digital asset treasury firms are emerging as a potential stabilizing force, with regulatory clarity and policy alignment adding longer-term support.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>随着新年的临近，比特币的看涨动态逐渐成形，长期持有者减缓了分配。</em></li>
<li><em>数字资产财库公司正在成为潜在的稳定力量，监管透明度和政策一致性为长期支持提供了保障。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币在 2026 年第一季度的趋势：随着长期持有者的购买行为和 ETF 资金流动的变化，空头是否会继续掌控市场？