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<p>预测市场在 2025 年获得了巨大的关注——不仅限于商品，还扩展到选举、体育，甚至中央银行的任命。</p>
<p>曾经是小众对冲工具的它们，现在吸引了主流的关注和数十亿的交易量。</p>
<p>前 CFTC 执法主任伊恩·麦金利在接受_CNBC_采访时表示，“预测市场已经存在了几十年”，但今年的快速扩张带来了新的监管挑战。</p>
<p>由于合同与政治结果和体育赛事相关，风险比以往任何时候都要高，问题在于监管机构是否有足够的资源跟上。</p>
<h2>CFTC 在监管预测市场方面面临的主要挑战</h2>
<p>麦金利强调，负责监管预测市场的商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）正面临人手不足的问题。</p>
<p>“根据一些报告，执法部门的人员不到 100 人，” 他说。</p>
<p>这个小团队负责监控庞大且不断增长的市场，包括现在占预测市场交易量近 90% 的与体育相关的合同。</p>
<p>政府机构的裁员使得 CFTC 人手紧张，引发了对其有效监管不当行为能力的担忧。</p>
<p>麦金利认为，“任何新市场在被监管时，他们都会学习”，但如果没有更多的人手，执法风险将落后。</p>
<h2>内幕交易风险高企</h2>
<p>批评者认为，预测市场特别容易受到内幕交易的影响。</p>
<p>与传统股票不同，证券交易委员会（SEC）在其上建立了数十年的执法先例，预测市场则较新且防御措施不足。</p>
<p>由于合同与选举或体育结果等事件相关，拥有特权信息的个人可能更容易利用市场。</p>
<p>与股票市场相比，监控工具的相对缺乏加剧了风险。虽然麦金利坚称 CFTC“确实有能力监管这些市场”，但他承认人手和资源仍然是关键弱点。</p>
<p>如果没有更强的监管，这些脆弱性可能会侵蚀投资者信心，并在 2026 年扩展时削弱预测市场的合法性。</p>
<h2>创新与监管的平衡</h2>
<p>尽管面临这些挑战，伊恩·麦金利仍将预测市场视为更广泛创新趋势的一部分。</p>
<p>他指出，在拜登政府试图禁止与选举相关的合同后，新美国政府将其视为符合其 “支持创新、促进增长” 议程的做法，而特朗普总统至今仍在宣传这一点。</p>
<p>这一政策转变使得预测市场渗透到 “我们生活中的几乎所有领域”，从政治到体育，前 CFTC 执法主任在今天的_CNBC_采访中表示。</p>
<p>2026 年监管机构面临的挑战是找到平衡：鼓励创新，同时确保市场保持公平和透明。</p>
<p>正如麦金利所说，“需要更多的人手”，并从成功和失败中学习。</p>
<p>如果没有这一点，预测市场可能会成为滥用的温床，而不是合法的金融工具，如果监管失败，将削弱其可信度和投资者信任。</p>
<p>这篇文章《CFTC 在 2026 年监管预测市场面临的重大挑战》最初发表于 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>CFTC 在监管迅速扩张的预测市场方面面临重大挑战，这些市场在 2025 年获得了广泛关注。由于人力资源有限，执法部门在监控这些市场时遇到困难，尤其是体育相关合约占据了交易量的主导地位。批评者指出，由于监控工具不足，内幕交易的风险加大。尽管 CFTC 旨在在创新与监管之间取得平衡，但在没有增加人员和资源的情况下，投资者信心和市场合法性的问题依然存在</p>

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<p>Prediction markets gained immense popularity in 2025 – moving well beyond commodities and into elections, sports, and even central bank appointments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场在 2025 年获得了巨大的关注——不仅限于商品，还扩展到选举、体育，甚至中央银行的任命。</p>
</div><p>Once niche hedging tools, they now attract mainstream attention and billions in trading volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾经是小众对冲工具的它们，现在吸引了主流的关注和数十亿的交易量。</p>
</div><p>Former CFTC enforcement director Ian McGinley told <em>CNBC</em> that “prediction markets have existed for decades,” but their rapid expansion this year has created new regulatory challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前 CFTC 执法主任伊恩·麦金利在接受_CNBC_采访时表示，“预测市场已经存在了几十年”，但今年的快速扩张带来了新的监管挑战。</p>
</div><p>With contracts tied to political outcomes and sporting events, the stakes are higher than ever, and the question is whether regulators have the resources to keep pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于合同与政治结果和体育赛事相关，风险比以往任何时候都要高，问题在于监管机构是否有足够的资源跟上。</p>
</div><h2>CFTC’s major challenge in regulating prediction markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>CFTC 在监管预测市场方面面临的主要挑战</h2>
</div><p>McGinley underscored that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees prediction markets, is struggling with limited manpower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦金利强调，负责监管预测市场的商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）正面临人手不足的问题。</p>
</div><p>“By some reports, the enforcement division, which I used to lead at CFTC, is under 100 people,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“根据一些报告，执法部门的人员不到 100 人，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>That small team is tasked with monitoring vast and growing markets, including sports-related contracts that now account for nearly 90% of prediction market volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个小团队负责监控庞大且不断增长的市场，包括现在占预测市场交易量近 90% 的与体育相关的合同。</p>
</div><p>Staffing cuts across government agencies have left the CFTC stretched thin, raising concerns about its ability to police misconduct effectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府机构的裁员使得 CFTC 人手紧张，引发了对其有效监管不当行为能力的担忧。</p>
</div><p>McGinley argued that “any new market that is being regulated, they’ll be learning,” but without more personnel, enforcement risks falling behind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦金利认为，“任何新市场在被监管时，他们都会学习”，但如果没有更多的人手，执法风险将落后。</p>
</div><h2>Insider trading risks loom large</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>内幕交易风险高企</h2>
</div><p>Critics argue that prediction markets are particularly vulnerable to insider trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>批评者认为，预测市场特别容易受到内幕交易的影响。</p>
</div><p>Unlike traditional equities, where the SEC has built decades of enforcement precedent, prediction markets are newer and less fortified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与传统股票不同，证券交易委员会（SEC）在其上建立了数十年的执法先例，预测市场则较新且防御措施不足。</p>
</div><p>With contracts tied to events like elections or sports outcomes, individuals with privileged information could exploit markets more easily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于合同与选举或体育结果等事件相关，拥有特权信息的个人可能更容易利用市场。</p>
</div><p>The relative lack of surveillance tools compared to stock markets compounds the risk. While McGinley insisted the CFTC “does have the ability to police these markets,” he conceded that staffing and resources remain critical weaknesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与股票市场相比，监控工具的相对缺乏加剧了风险。虽然麦金利坚称 CFTC“确实有能力监管这些市场”，但他承认人手和资源仍然是关键弱点。</p>
</div><p>Without stronger oversight, these vulnerabilities could erode investor confidence and undermine the legitimacy of prediction markets as they expand in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果没有更强的监管，这些脆弱性可能会侵蚀投资者信心，并在 2026 年扩展时削弱预测市场的合法性。</p>
</div><h2>Balancing innovation and regulation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>创新与监管的平衡</h2>
</div><p>Despite these challenges, Ian McGinley sees prediction markets as part of a broader trend toward innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临这些挑战，伊恩·麦金利仍将预测市场视为更广泛创新趋势的一部分。</p>
</div><p>He noted that after the Biden administration attempted to ban election-related contracts, the new US government embraced them as fitting its “pro-innovation, pro-growth” agenda that President Trump continued to tout to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，在拜登政府试图禁止与选举相关的合同后，新美国政府将其视为符合其 “支持创新、促进增长” 议程的做法，而特朗普总统至今仍在宣传这一点。</p>
</div><p>That policy shift has allowed prediction markets to infiltrate “basically everything in our lives,” from politics to sports, the former CFTC director of enforcement said in the <em>CNBC interview</em> today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一政策转变使得预测市场渗透到 “我们生活中的几乎所有领域”，从政治到体育，前 CFTC 执法主任在今天的_CNBC_采访中表示。</p>
</div><p>The challenge for regulators in 2026 is striking a balance: encouraging innovation while ensuring markets remain fair and transparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年监管机构面临的挑战是找到平衡：鼓励创新，同时确保市场保持公平和透明。</p>
</div><p>As McGinley put it, “there needs to be more staffing” and more learning from both successes and failures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如麦金利所说，“需要更多的人手”，并从成功和失败中学习。</p>
</div><p>Without that, prediction markets risk becoming fertile ground for abuse rather than a legitimate financial tool, undermining credibility and investor trust if oversight fails.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果没有这一点，预测市场可能会成为滥用的温床，而不是合法的金融工具，如果监管失败，将削弱其可信度和投资者信任。</p>
</div><p>The post A major challenge CFTC faces in regulating prediction markets in 2026 appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章《CFTC 在 2026 年监管预测市场面临的重大挑战》最初发表于 Invezz 上。</p>
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美国商品期货交易委员会在 2026 年监管预测市场时面临的重大挑战