<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>通货膨胀的进展停滞不前。劳动力市场看起来不稳定。</p>
<p>预计 2025 年中期华尔街将迎来一场暴雨。</p>
<p>美联储和华尔街经济学家对 2026 年的预测普遍乐观，预计经济增长加速，失业率稳定，通货膨胀在新的一年中下降。</p>
<p>但其他独立经济专家则更加担忧，认为潜在的陷阱不容小觑。他们看到劳动力市场疲软，而通货膨胀的进展停滞不前。</p>
<p>穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示：“经济对我来说感觉相当脆弱。”</p>
<p>招聘不足可能预示着麻烦</p>
<p>自夏季以来，好消息是裁员率较低。另一方面，大多数公司并没有增加招聘。经济学家将这种趋势称为 “低招聘、低裁员” 的劳动力市场。</p>
<p>赞迪和前美联储经济学家、现任新世纪顾问公司的首席经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆一致认为，这一趋势不可持续，失业率可能会激增。</p>
<p>萨姆表示：“我们没有一个感觉上处于舒适均衡的劳动力市场。”</p>
<p>萨姆在一次采访中表示：“你只能在一段时间内维持低招聘、低裁员的经济。在消费者方面，事情开始崩溃之前，这种情况是有限的。” 如果消费者停止消费，企业将裁员。</p>
<p>“只要经济没有创造就业机会，失业率在上升，就很难对经济表现感到满意。”——马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司</p>
<p>美国经济在第三季度以超出预期的 4.3% 增长。这是两年来的最佳表现。但失业率正在缓慢上升，从年初的 4% 稳步上升至 11 月的 4.6%。</p>
<p>赞迪表示：“只要经济没有创造就业机会，失业率在上升，就很难对经济表现感到满意。”</p>
<p>彼得森国际经济研究所的院长亚当·波森认为，赞迪和萨姆过于关注劳动力需求疲软。他认为，劳动力市场在疫情后经历了巨大的结构性变化。</p>
<p>他说：“大量的劳动力市场调整是在非常短的时间内完成的，因此，剩下的调整空间不多。” 本质上，雇主积累了可以减少的工人库存。</p>
<p>不要错过：为什么可能很快会出现另一次政府关门——这对你意味着什么</p>
<p>他说，这使得在没有经济衰退的情况下失业率上升成为可能。</p>
<p>通货膨胀可能加剧</p>
<p>波森对 2026 年通货膨胀压力上升的担忧超过了萨姆或赞迪。他表示：“你将会面临一系列通货膨胀压力。” 这些压力包括特朗普关税、美联储的抗通胀信誉下降以及去年夏天通过的共和党减税法案带来的财政刺激。</p>
<p>见：美国人说经济糟糕，但他们的消费习惯却表明经济相当不错。这是怎么回事？</p>
<p>他说，通货膨胀冲击将产生更大的影响并且更具持续性。</p>
<p>“移民工人的驱逐尚未发生。”——亚当·波森，彼得森国际经济研究所</p>
<p>波森表示，他对明年经济的主要担忧是 “移民工人的驱逐尚未发生。”</p>
<p>尽管白宫声称许多工人已被驱逐，但需要移民工人的行业——如家庭医疗、儿童保育和食品加工——仍未显示出合法就业的增加或产出崩溃。</p>
<p>这表明 “工人还没有离开，” 波森说。如果移民工人真的离开，将会产生冲击，推高通货膨胀并抑制增长，这将是 “巨大且糟糕的。”</p>
<p>受影响行业的雇主将不得不提高工资以吸引新工人，市场上将出现商品短缺。</p>
<p>如果国会不通过降低健康保险费用的法律，第二个担忧将会出现，波森说。这将迫使女性退出劳动力市场，以照顾亲人。这也将推高通货膨胀并抑制增长，波森表示。</p>
<p>人工智能投资应继续抵消一些增长放缓带来的冲击，但他表示，价格将没有任何抑制因素。</p>
<p>波森表示：“对我来说，这是一种通货膨胀情景，而不是滞涨情景。”</p>
<p>观点：为什么杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直是对的——而特朗普在利率、通货膨胀和经济问题上是错的</p>
<p>——Greg Robb</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>12-31-25 1553ET</p>

<p>美国经济在接近 2026 年时面临重大挑战，通胀进展停滞，劳动力市场不稳定。尽管一些预测显示经济增长和稳定，但独立专家对疲弱的招聘趋势和上升的失业率表示担忧。穆迪分析公司的 Mark Zandi 警告称经济脆弱，而彼得森国际经济研究所的 Adam Posen 则强调关税和移民工人驱逐可能带来的通胀压力。整体情绪表明经济前景谨慎，通胀和劳动力市场不稳定的风险依然存在</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Progress on inflation has stalled. Labor market looks shaky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀的进展停滞不前。劳动力市场看起来不稳定。</p>
</div><p>A mid-2025 downpour on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 2025 年中期华尔街将迎来一场暴雨。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's and Wall Street economists' forecasts for 2026 are generally quite rosy, with growth accelerating, unemployment stabilizing and inflation falling in the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储和华尔街经济学家对 2026 年的预测普遍乐观，预计经济增长加速，失业率稳定，通货膨胀在新的一年中下降。</p>
</div><p>But other, independent economic experts are much more concerned and see no shortage of potential pitfalls. They see a labor market that looks weak, against a backdrop in which progress on inflation has stalled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其他独立经济专家则更加担忧，认为潜在的陷阱不容小觑。他们看到劳动力市场疲软，而通货膨胀的进展停滞不前。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The economy feels quite fragile to me,&#34; said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, in an interview with MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示：“经济对我来说感觉相当脆弱。”</p>
</div><p>A lack of hiring may spell trouble</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>招聘不足可能预示着麻烦</p>
</div><p>Since the summer, the good news has been that layoffs have been low. On the other hand, most companies are not adding jobs. Economists refer to this trend as a &#34;low-hire, low-fire&#34; labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自夏季以来，好消息是裁员率较低。另一方面，大多数公司并没有增加招聘。经济学家将这种趋势称为 “低招聘、低裁员” 的劳动力市场。</p>
</div><p>Zandi and Claudia Sahm, the noted former Fed economist who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors, agree that this trend is unsustainable and that there could be a spike in unemployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赞迪和前美联储经济学家、现任新世纪顾问公司的首席经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆一致认为，这一趋势不可持续，失业率可能会激增。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We don't have a labor market that feels like [it's] in comfortable equilibrium,&#34; Sahm said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨姆表示：“我们没有一个感觉上处于舒适均衡的劳动力市场。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;You can only have the low-hire, low-fire economy over a period of time. There's a limit to how far you can push this before things start to unravel on the consumer side,&#34; Sahm said in an interview. If consumers stop spending, businesses will lay off workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨姆在一次采访中表示：“你只能在一段时间内维持低招聘、低裁员的经济。在消费者方面，事情开始崩溃之前，这种情况是有限的。” 如果消费者停止消费，企业将裁员。</p>
</div><p>'As long as the economy is not creating jobs and unemployment is rising, it's hard to feel good about how the economy is performing.'Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“只要经济没有创造就业机会，失业率在上升，就很难对经济表现感到满意。”——马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 4.3% in the third quarter. That's the best reading in two years. But the unemployment rate is slowly rising, inching up steadily to 4.6% in November from 4% at the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济在第三季度以超出预期的 4.3% 增长。这是两年来的最佳表现。但失业率正在缓慢上升，从年初的 4% 稳步上升至 11 月的 4.6%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As long as the economy is not creating jobs and unemployment is rising, it's hard to feel good about how the economy is performing,&#34; Zandi said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赞迪表示：“只要经济没有创造就业机会，失业率在上升，就很难对经济表现感到满意。”</p>
</div><p>Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is of the view that Zandi and Sahm overly focused on weak demand for labor. He argues that the labor market underwent enormous structural change coming out of the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彼得森国际经济研究所的院长亚当·波森认为，赞迪和萨姆过于关注劳动力需求疲软。他认为，劳动力市场在疫情后经历了巨大的结构性变化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A lot of labor-market adjustment was done in a very short period of time, and, as a result, there isn't much left to be done,&#34; he said. Essentially, employers collected inventories of workers that can be drawn down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“大量的劳动力市场调整是在非常短的时间内完成的，因此，剩下的调整空间不多。” 本质上，雇主积累了可以减少的工人库存。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Why there could soon be another government shutdown - and what it would mean for you</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：为什么可能很快会出现另一次政府关门——这对你意味着什么</p>
</div><p>This allows for there to be a period of rising unemployment without recession, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，这使得在没有经济衰退的情况下失业率上升成为可能。</p>
</div><p>Inflation could heat up</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀可能加剧</p>
</div><p>Posen is more worried than Sahm or Zandi about rising inflation pressures in 2026. &#34;You are going to get a bunch of inflationary pressures,&#34; Posen said, including from the Trump tariffs, a Fed with less inflation-fighting credibility and fiscal stimulus from the Republican tax bill passed last summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波森对 2026 年通货膨胀压力上升的担忧超过了萨姆或赞迪。他表示：“你将会面临一系列通货膨胀压力。” 这些压力包括特朗普关税、美联储的抗通胀信誉下降以及去年夏天通过的共和党减税法案带来的财政刺激。</p>
</div><p>See: Americans say the economy is lousy, but their spending habits say the economy is pretty good. What's going on?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：美国人说经济糟糕，但他们的消费习惯却表明经济相当不错。这是怎么回事？</p>
</div><p>Inflation shocks are going to have a bigger impact and be more persistent, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，通货膨胀冲击将产生更大的影响并且更具持续性。</p>
</div><p>'[T] he shoe hasn't yet dropped on the deportation of migrant workers.'Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“移民工人的驱逐尚未发生。”——亚当·波森，彼得森国际经济研究所</p>
</div><p>Posen said his major worry for the economy next year is that &#34;the shoe hasn't yet dropped on the deportation of migrant workers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波森表示，他对明年经济的主要担忧是 “移民工人的驱逐尚未发生。”</p>
</div><p>While the White House has boasted that a lot of workers have been deported, sectors that have required migrant workers - like home healthcare, child care and food processing - still do not show increases in legal employment or a collapse in output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管白宫声称许多工人已被驱逐，但需要移民工人的行业——如家庭医疗、儿童保育和食品加工——仍未显示出合法就业的增加或产出崩溃。</p>
</div><p>That suggests &#34;the workers aren't gone yet,&#34; Posen said. If and when migrant workers do leave, there will be a shock that boosts inflation and hurts growth, and it will be &#34;big and bad,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明 “工人还没有离开，” 波森说。如果移民工人真的离开，将会产生冲击，推高通货膨胀并抑制增长，这将是 “巨大且糟糕的。”</p>
</div><p>Employers in affected sectors will have to raise wages to attract new workers, and there will be a shortage of goods in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>受影响行业的雇主将不得不提高工资以吸引新工人，市场上将出现商品短缺。</p>
</div><p>A second worry would materialize If Congress doesn't enact laws to lower the cost of health insurance, Posen said. That will force women to drop out of the workforce to provide needed care for loved ones. This will also boost inflation and dampen growth, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果国会不通过降低健康保险费用的法律，第二个担忧将会出现，波森说。这将迫使女性退出劳动力市场，以照顾亲人。这也将推高通货膨胀并抑制增长，波森表示。</p>
</div><p>Artificial-intelligence investment should continue to offset some of the shocks to slower growth, but there will be nothing holding down prices, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能投资应继续抵消一些增长放缓带来的冲击，但他表示，价格将没有任何抑制因素。</p>
</div><p>&#34;So, to me, this is an inflation scenario - not a stagflation scenario,&#34; Posen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波森表示：“对我来说，这是一种通货膨胀情景，而不是滞涨情景。”</p>
</div><p>Opinion: Why Jerome Powell was right all along - and Trump was wrong - about interest rates, inflation and the economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>观点：为什么杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直是对的——而特朗普在利率、通货膨胀和经济问题上是错的</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-31-25 1553ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-31-25 1553ET</p>
</div>

美国经济在迈向 2026 年时面临诸多忧虑